Domain: electionprojection.com
Stories and comments across the archive that link to electionprojection.com.
Comments · 7
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Election Projection
There's also Election Projection, who track house, senate, and governator races. It's kind of interesting the few differences between these sites--EP is projecting two independent senate wins (if you can consider Lieberman an independent), whereas E-V appears to only count Republicans and Democrats.
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Re:The Rise & Fall of My Country
Actually, we can never validate one way or the other if these elections are valid because you can't do recounts in Diebold elections.
Sure you can do recounts. Collect the voter-verifiable receipts and count those over and over until your heart is content.All I meant with my post was that polls show Republicans should get trounced this November.
Why should Republicans get "trounced"? Most of the recent polls that I have seen show the Republicans maintaining a small majority in both the House and the Senate (see Election Projection, for example).If they don't, and if exit polls are wrong for the 3RD election in a row, then our election system is officially rigged and we have no easy way to stop it.
That was my point. Many people seem to have already made up their minds about what the results of the election this November should be, and they are using this as a standard to judge if the system is rigged or not. But in reality, most polls show that the race is going to be very close, with Democrats picking up some seats and Governorships, but Republicans maintaining a majority in both the House and Senate. If the Republicans do keep their majority, it is not proof that the elections are rigged!
And the exit polls haven't been wrong for two elections in a row. Some exit polls in Ohio in 2004 were wrong, but the company that conducted the polls has admitted that they screwed up in this analysis that they published after the election. Its not some deep conspiracy- just plain incompetence. -
Election Projection was more accurate
http://www.electionprojection.com/ Election Projection used a formula that included lots of national and state polls. They actually came within 3 electoral votes of predicting the outcome exactly. This year, they're tracking all the Senate, Governor and a bunch of House races, too.
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Re:Deliberate troll...Maybe Non-Partisan means just that. He also clearly links to a pro-Bush site. From this page:
I am a Kerry supporter. I am open about that. Despite my political preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be strictly nonpartisan. Only the third row of menu items below the map contains material that could be considered pro-Kerry (e.g., jokes about George Bush). If you are a Kerry supporter, an independent, a moderate Republican who is fed up with the President's fiscal and other policies or even a conservative Republican who feels betrayed and who has a sense of humor, you will probably enjoy them. If you want an election site that has a pro-Bush bias from beginning to end, including all over the main page, try www.electionprojection.com.
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electionprojection.comThis site was around before electoral-vote.com, and in fact may have inspired it.
Note that it predicts quite a different outcome. Also note that (like Tanenbaum) the owner is partisan - however he also seems to have a sane methodology.
Just FYI...
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Interesting site, but there's a fatal flawUnfortunately, popular votes do not elect a president; Electoral College votes do.
Here are two sites that attempt to predict what the Electoral College votes will be:
Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
Election Projection - 2004 Edition
I discount the second site because of its obvious bias, but even so, things are looking grim for Kerry.
Here's my prediction:
Bush will win a second term, but his popularity will decline steadily, due to an increasingly Vietnam-like Iraq and an increasingly bleak economic scene.
His low popularity will limit his ability to enact his conservative agenda, and with a little luck, the Republicans will implode, leading to a Democratic landslide in 2008.
What evidence do I have to back up my prediction? Well, er, ..., see my next posting for details. -
Electionprojection.com
One that I've been frequenting, thought I don't agree with his political beliefs, is electionprojection.com Lot's of state by state information.