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Domain: pandemicflu.gov
Stories and comments across the archive that link to pandemicflu.gov.
Comments · 8
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Re:Spread the FUD
"Just a flu" -- this exact type, H1N1 -- killed 30,000,000 to 50,000,000 people in the flu season of 1918-1919.
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Us Health and Human Services pamphlet
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/PLAN/PDF/GUIDE.PDF
This one seems to have been prepared in response to the avian flu hysteria of a few years ago. But the basic tips on how to prepare and protect yourself and your friends and family are the same.
If you do nothing else, *Wash Your Hands!* thanks!
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Official WHO and Federal Response Stages
The WHO stage remains at 3; the Federal phase remains at 0.
I'll worry when either or both of those numbers change.http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/federal/fedresponsestages.html
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Official WHO and Federal Response Stages
The WHO stage remains at 3; the Federal phase remains at 0.
I'll worry when either or both of those numbers change.http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/federal/fedresponsestages.html
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Re:worry in october, not now
Maurice Hilleman had a hypothesis about flu pandemics. In a nutshell, his idea is that they occur every 68 years for each individual subtype. After 68 years, the majority of people who were previously exposed will have died off, leaving a totally naive population.
This is related to the idea of herd immunity -- that a population is essentially immune if the number of immune people is above some certain threshold. Think of it this way: if 90% of people are immune to a disease, and a person on average spreads this disease to 10 people, the transmission rate will be linear. If you pass below a threshold of, for example 80% though, it will become rapidly exponential.
After 68 years, the average turnover time of a generation, the numerator of immune people ends up decreasing, and this is why we get these cyclic pandemics.
While everyone knows about the H1N1 Spanish Flu (the same subtype as this new Mexican flu) of 1919, much fewer know about the 1978 pandemic of the same type. This is what we should be thinking about.
So, one might think, well, 68 years + 1978 = 2046. This pandemic is way too early. The problem is, however, that the 1978 pandemic was extremely mild -- it itself struck about 10 years too early. Thus, not many people were infected, leaving the numerator much smaller than it should be.
The other problem is the population explosion, especially in third world countries. This has the effect of drastically increasing the denominator of that herd immunity ratio.
Because of these two reasons, I suspect that the herd immunity ratio has already passed below the threshold needed to protect us from a pandemic. -
Re:They did have a cure for fluOn a more serious note, here are some vital resources about the flu: If you don't do anything else, read John Barry's The Great Influenza.
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general background information
just some official background from the government site (some removed to get it to post correctly, more at the URLs)
http://pandemicflu.gov/
related link and info
http://pandemicflu.gov/general/
A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. A flu pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity and for which there is no vaccine. The disease spreads easily person-to-person, causes serious illness, and can sweep across the country and around the world in very short time.
It is difficult to predict when the next influenza pandemic will occur or how severe it will be. Wherever and whenever a pandemic starts, everyone around the world is at risk. Countries might, through measures such as border closures and travel restrictions, delay arrival of the virus, but cannot stop it
Health professionals are concerned that the continued and expanded spread of a highly pathogenic-and now endemic-avian H5N1 virus across eastern Asia and other countries represents a significant threat. The H5N1 virus has raised concerns about a potential human pandemic because:
Like other influenza viruses, it continues to evolve.
Since 2003, a growing number of human H5N1 cases have been reported in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Iraq, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam, and more than half of the people infected with the H5N1 virus have died. These cases are all believed to have been caused by exposure to infected poultry. The concern is that H5N1 will evolve into a virus capable of human to human transmission.
A pandemic vaccine cannot be produced until a new pandemic influenza virus emerges and is identified. Even after a pandemic influenza virus has been identified, it could take at least 6 months to develop, test and produce vaccine. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has made the establishment and expansion of U.S.-based manufacturing facilities for influenza vaccine a key component of its strategy to improve the security of the influenza vaccine supply.
Antivirals are drugs that may help prevent infection in people at risk and lessen the impact of symptoms in those infected with influenza. It is unlikely that they would substantially modify the course or effectively contain the spread of an influenza pandemic. See Vaccines & Medications.
A pandemic may come and go in waves, each of which can last for six to eight weeks. An especially severe influenza pandemic could lead to high levels of illness, death, social disruption, and economic loss. Everyday life would be disrupted because so many people in so many places become seriously ill at the same time. Impacts can range from school and business closings to the interruption of basic services such as public transportation and food delivery.
Pandemics Death
Toll Since 1900
1918-1919
U.S....
500,000+
Worldwide...
40,000,000+
1957-1958
U.S....
70,000+
Worldwide...
1-2,000,000
1968-1969
U.S....
34,000+
Worldwide...
700,000+
A substantial percentage of the world's population will require some form of medical care. Health care facilities can be overwhelmed, creating a shortage of hospital staff, beds, ventilators and other supplies. Surge capacity at non-traditional sites such as schools may need to be created to cope with demand.
The need for vaccine is likely to outstrip supply and the supply of antiviral drugs is also likely to be inadequate early in a pandemic. Difficult decisions will need to be made regarding who gets antiviral drugs and vaccines.
Death rates are determined by four factors: the number of people who become infected, the virulence of the virus, the underlying characteristics and vulnerability of affected populations and the availability and effectiveness of preventive measures.
The United States has been working closely with other cou -
general background information
just some official background from the government site (some removed to get it to post correctly, more at the URLs)
http://pandemicflu.gov/
related link and info
http://pandemicflu.gov/general/
A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. A flu pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity and for which there is no vaccine. The disease spreads easily person-to-person, causes serious illness, and can sweep across the country and around the world in very short time.
It is difficult to predict when the next influenza pandemic will occur or how severe it will be. Wherever and whenever a pandemic starts, everyone around the world is at risk. Countries might, through measures such as border closures and travel restrictions, delay arrival of the virus, but cannot stop it
Health professionals are concerned that the continued and expanded spread of a highly pathogenic-and now endemic-avian H5N1 virus across eastern Asia and other countries represents a significant threat. The H5N1 virus has raised concerns about a potential human pandemic because:
Like other influenza viruses, it continues to evolve.
Since 2003, a growing number of human H5N1 cases have been reported in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Iraq, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam, and more than half of the people infected with the H5N1 virus have died. These cases are all believed to have been caused by exposure to infected poultry. The concern is that H5N1 will evolve into a virus capable of human to human transmission.
A pandemic vaccine cannot be produced until a new pandemic influenza virus emerges and is identified. Even after a pandemic influenza virus has been identified, it could take at least 6 months to develop, test and produce vaccine. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has made the establishment and expansion of U.S.-based manufacturing facilities for influenza vaccine a key component of its strategy to improve the security of the influenza vaccine supply.
Antivirals are drugs that may help prevent infection in people at risk and lessen the impact of symptoms in those infected with influenza. It is unlikely that they would substantially modify the course or effectively contain the spread of an influenza pandemic. See Vaccines & Medications.
A pandemic may come and go in waves, each of which can last for six to eight weeks. An especially severe influenza pandemic could lead to high levels of illness, death, social disruption, and economic loss. Everyday life would be disrupted because so many people in so many places become seriously ill at the same time. Impacts can range from school and business closings to the interruption of basic services such as public transportation and food delivery.
Pandemics Death
Toll Since 1900
1918-1919
U.S....
500,000+
Worldwide...
40,000,000+
1957-1958
U.S....
70,000+
Worldwide...
1-2,000,000
1968-1969
U.S....
34,000+
Worldwide...
700,000+
A substantial percentage of the world's population will require some form of medical care. Health care facilities can be overwhelmed, creating a shortage of hospital staff, beds, ventilators and other supplies. Surge capacity at non-traditional sites such as schools may need to be created to cope with demand.
The need for vaccine is likely to outstrip supply and the supply of antiviral drugs is also likely to be inadequate early in a pandemic. Difficult decisions will need to be made regarding who gets antiviral drugs and vaccines.
Death rates are determined by four factors: the number of people who become infected, the virulence of the virus, the underlying characteristics and vulnerability of affected populations and the availability and effectiveness of preventive measures.
The United States has been working closely with other cou