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Domain: res-energy.com
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Comments · 7
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Re:who would object?
Oh, absolutely. I was not dismissing the article off hand, just providing a small proof of who might object. I am all for increased efficency and hybridization. I am still waiting for these to come online more places: http://www.res-energy.com/technology/index.asp
Assuming they can get it running as promised. -
Someone will eventually shut them down...
...just like keep trying to do with the plant in my neck of the woods.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization
Scroll to the bottom, under 'Current status' and 'Smell complaints'.
Too bad there's not a section for 'pressure from big oil'. If it isn't the case today, it certainly will be tomorrow.
This outfit in Carthage is already producing 500 barrels a day from guts and fat, at a profit of $4 per barrel. In January 05, their price was $80/barrel ($1.90/gal).
The tech is real, so why don't we have the gas yet?
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You don't need nuclear power or a federal program.
You don't need nuclear power or a federal program to eliminate the United State's dependence on foreign oil. From an article on thermal depolymerization:
"Changing World say that converting all of the US agricultural waste into oil and gas would yield the energy equivalent of 4bn barrels of oil, roughly equal to the volume of US oil imports in 2001."
That's just the agricultural waste. Add municipal waste, and all the carbon locked up in our landfills. The process was developed by Changing World Technologies. They have a demo plant at a Con-Agra turkey processing facility in Missouri, which is producing 100-200 barrels of oil a day. At a price of about $15 a barrel to produce, it seems to me that freeing up the carbon in our waste stream is a cheaper alternative.
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Re:Criticism without Solution
How about the fact that the 'waste' being used to make oil, could otherwise be used as natural fertilizer??
From the company's website:TCP utilizes low-value waste by-products such as tires, plastics, sludge, municipal solid waste, paper, animal, and agricultural waste as feedstocks.
Note "low-value". They are not using stuff which has significant value as fertilizer. Also note that fertilizers are generally nitrogen based, and oil is a hydrocarbon. From the FAQ page: "What other materials are you producing? We also produce gas, minerals and fertilizer". So you see the parts of the waste that are valuable as fertilizer are still being sold as such. -
Re:The plant isn't making money
They don't make money.
Well, yes and no.
From the FAQ
Are you generating revenue? How much?
Yes. A small but growing revenue stream. Specific dollar amounts are confidential.
So they haven't made a profit - i.e. the plant hasn't produced more money than it took to construct it, but they are making money.
I believe they expect it to not only make enough money to pay for the construction, but to also be a reasonable investement.
According to bloomberg crude oil futures are $35-$40 a barrel.
It seems reasonable to assume that the mysterious "No. 4 oil" would sell for approximately the same.
Assuming a raw materials cost of zero, no maintence, the plant makes 500 barrels a day, and runs continuously, that's 500 * $35 or $17,500 a day.
At that rate, it would take 3-4 years to break even, and about 6-10 years before it's has a reasonable return rate given the initial $20,000,000 investment cost.
If you assume a high maintenance cost, a high repair bill, a high interest loan, only 100 barrels a day, and constant interuptions (which is much closer to current conditions) then it would take considerably longer to break even - over 40 years. It would never achieve a reseaonable return rate - even if it makes money you'd be better off putting the money in the bank.
Prognosticating is fruaght with error, but I'd say oil prices and the cost of waste disposal is going to go up, while the cost of building and running these plants is going to go down.
-- not a
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The plant isn't making moneybut since the plants make money they'd probably be built anyway
They don't make money. From the faq, it doesn't appear that a 500 barrel/day plant will make without tax credits.
Is moneythe plant economically viable?
The plant is still in the startup phase, but we expect to meet our revenue projections when the plant is operating at capacity. We are counting on legislative assistance in the form of production tax credits, which stimulated other new technology innovation such as wind power. In addition, looking forward, the next generation of plants will be larger, giving us economies of scale and other economic benefits. -
Re:Extraordinary claimsThe article didn't count oil that went into raising the turkeys (for working the land, pesticides, heat/light, transportation to the processing plant and so on). The process is certainly of use because it reduces the external fuel needs of the turkey operation. It's not clear to me, though, whether the process breaks even with these other costs taken into account. Does the process produce enough fuel to fully power all of the farms that generate the turkeys?
I'd also like to know more about the inputs to the system. 500 barrels of oil must take a lot of turkey guts, especially as they are mostly water (which is burned off during coking). According to a CFACT article, it takes 1 ton of turkey to make 640 pounds of oil, 100 pounds of gasses, and 60 pounds of solids. This is surprising to me, I thought more water would be present; they are getting 40% "useful" material out of the turkey waste. The top production is based on estimates of 200tons/day of turkey waste. How many farms feed into this turkey processing plant, and how many such plants are there?
Another issue is the cost per barrel. The FAQ has a bit more information, and it seems to suggest the price is still a bit high, although hopefully it can be brought down.
It seems this is an interesting conservation measure that can reduce the amount of consumption while doing something useful with waste byproducts. The waste reduction seems like the most useful benefit for now (perhaps the original motivation for ConAgra to get involved in the project, as the process "will dramatically reduce the charges it faces for disposing of waste"). I think it's too early, though, to start investing in turkey gut futures.