CAT Scans Suggest Cause of Columbia Disaster
Kathy Miles writes "The latest information from Columbia's flight data recorder, along with CAT scan results from RCC layers from shuttle Atlantis' leading wing edge, may give clues to what really happened to Columbia. The flight data recorder shows that there was likely structural damage before Columbia began re-entry. Investigators have been looking at the remaining shuttles and have done CAT scans on Atlantis' reinforced carbon-carbon layers, which show gaps that should not be there. If Columbia had similar gaps, it could have doomed the orbiter."
On future shuttle missions they can just take a feline or two to do a wingwalk and scan for problems.
134340: I am not a number. I am a free planet!
Today's NY Times has an article about analyzing those recently found tapes. It says that there was something like 20 seconds from the loss of voice contact, and the shuttle's breakup.
He lost tons of credibility in the beginning when he stood up and said that it couldn't be the foam that caused the problem. Soon after, we learned that he refused the request of NASA engineers to have pictures taken of the craft while in orbit.
"Eve of Destruction", it's not just for old hippies anymore...
it was moving too fast!
http://evil.minions.com/~bifrost/cnnsucks.jpg.
The Shuttle program has been plagued with this since its inception, with congress demanding $5.00 worth of labor and material for $1.50 and then sending people into the most hostile environment we know of, assuming that somehow everything will work out.
When looking for culprits here, please don't forget your elected representatives in Washington DC. There's folks in DC who, to my way of thinking anyway, are guilty of cold-blooded murder.
Is it fascism yet?
was that the manned space missions were always about politics/prestige stuff and military race with Soviets rather than about doing science. (I do not mean the space probes, and all the JPL good stuff)
There is not the political will to provide adequate funding. So NASA had to go into salesmanship stuff (bulshit - to get funds) and cost-cutting. This is not good for engineering.
They should have been honest to NASA: get the bloated agency cut down after the end of Apollo programm - to have the reduced money spend in more efficient way. NASA is now a hugely bureaucratised venue and aging fast, it does not attract talented young people anymore. Plans to save it are overdue and it is too bad that the radical reforms were resisted, after the Challenger disaster.
I doubt that we will ever figure out - and I suspect that even if we did figure out we couldn't do much about it
If in the very unlikely event military satelites had seen a serious gash, they couldn't have done anything about it when it was in space.
That is not true from what I read. Some things that could have been done:
* Reduce the weight of the shuttle by tossing non-critical systems. This would decrease friction.
* Rotate shuttle to put damanged portion in shadow just before reentry. This would reduce tempurature a bit.
* I have read that there were ways to reduce the peak reentry friction by spreading it out over time
Table-ized A.I.
1. Tossing stuff sounds like you have been watching too many old movies. Maybe they could have ditched hundreds of pounds, but it isn't likely they could reduced the mass more than a percentage or two. It would not have been a significant enough reduction in friction or heat to make any difference. Worse is all that debris doesn't just fall to earth over night, it creates hazards of future space flights.
2. Rotation is more likely to have helped than ditching mass, but if the suspected cause is correct (and I think it is), it would not have made enough of a difference either.
3. Re-entry is already optimized to minimize heat and structural stresses.
I am fairly familiar with the space program as my Dad worked for JPL, he was on the navigation team for Pioneer, Voyager, Marineer and others.
Chuckbut it isn't likely they could reduced the mass more than a percentage or two.....but if the suspected cause is correct (and I think it is), it would not have made enough of a difference either.
If people's lives are on the line, then every few percentage points may just be worth it. At least they could have brought those options into open discussion if they knew of actual damage.
Worse is all that debris doesn't just fall to earth over night, it creates hazards of future space flights.
They perhaps could have moved into a lower decaying orbit before they tossed stuff. In fact, the actual orbit they used was a decaying orbit in the longer run IIRC.
Table-ized A.I.
IANA Rocket Scientist, but, the Columbia descent program put it through a several "S" turns. Wouldn't doing so have put favoured first one wing, then the other?
May I suggest that abandoning this profile, abandoning the idea that Columbia must land at Cape Kennedy, replacing it with a profile that continually favoured the left wing, may have made survival slightly more likely.
Even if Columbia's hidden damage was so profound this change of descent profile could not have saved her, let me suggest that there would be some lower amount of damage where the decision to abandon the vehicle and save the crew should be considered.
IANA Rocket Scientist, but I spent quite a bit of time looking into this in February. I came across a web-site that talked about something called "soak-through". If I understood this problem, the tiles could only protect the aluminum structure of the orbiters for a limited amount of time. If I understood this problem, too much heat, or heat for too long a period, would "soak-through the tiles, and allow the Aluminum beams to heat, and warp. If I understood this problem, the soak-through damage could happen after the orbiter landed.
Are the current descent profiles designed to minimize this soak-through? If the orbiter is damaged, and their is a seriously increased risk to the crew-member's lives, would you agree that considering a descent profile that ignores long-term damage to the orbiter's structural elements would be worthwhile?
Wasn't Columbia carrying a big Science Module in the Cargo Bay, something of a size similar to Hubble? I don't know whether it was possible to ditch it, but if so, surely it weighed tons, not hundreds of pounds.
IIRC the shuttle orbiters weigh in at something like 50 tons.
I wanted to respond to several comments, not all by this person but I thought I'd try to get it all in here. First, tossing stuff out of the shuttle would be disasterous. NASA already tracks over 40,000 pieces of debris from spent rocket stages and dead satellites, all of which are a major hazard to the shuttle and anything else up there. Because of the speeds involved, even a paint flake becomes potentially dangerous. If it collides with the orbiter, it carries the punch of a 22 caliber bullet. In fact, the shuttles windows have already been hit with paint flakes and they have left pits. That is one of the reasons why the orbiter flys backwards while in space, to minimize exposure of oncoming debris from the crew cabin windows.
How would they have gotten rid of the science module? Columbia did not have it's remote arm to lift things out. And they cannot keep the payload doors open in lower oribt.
Someone else mentioned those "s" turns, I think it was with the idea that they could have somehow changed those to favor the left wing. Those s turns are very precise and are designed to reduce orbiter speed. They already plot a course for maximum reduction of speed and therefore exposure to higher temperatures. And trying to reduce heat by keeping the orbiter in a less steep descent would have been just as disasterous because it would have meant a longer period of time, even if in slightly lower temperatures. That was just as risky, and possibly more, than the descent carried out.
Someone else mentioned ditching the orbiter and saving the crew. How? Where would the crew go? Columbia was not outfitted to dock with the ISS, so that was out. There were no EVA suits on board so the astronauts could not go outside the orbiter. In fact, one of the reasons that KC was chosen for this flight was because it was a non EVA mission, because she was so small they had no suits to fit her. The crew couldn't leave, there was nowhere for them to go.
Another person criticized Ron Dittemore for not having the military take satellite images of the shuttle's wing. That was not a decision made solely by Ron. A group of engineers met repeatedly, all week, to discuss what to do about the issue of possible damage from the foam. For one thing, the military was already overtaxed trying to prepare for Iraq. Also, military experts did not feel that they could get any images that would show enough detail to be any help. Remember, it took a CAT scan to show the gaps in Atlantis' RCC.
And finally, on to the personel of NASA and the integrity of Ron Dittemore. I am sure that, like any other organization, there are those who would play politics and do things to protect their jobs. I do not believe this portrays most of NASA and I certainly don't believe it indicative of Ron Dittemore. Take a look at these articles about Ron:
Houston Chronicle story and this on in USA Today
Ron didn't come in to NASA from the management side, he is an engineer, and a darned good one, and a good guy altogether. Let's give him a chance. The orbiter is a very complex vehicle, as I am sure most of you know. Let's not see conspiracy everywhere and get lost in "what ifs" and "should have/could have" because in doing so, we could easily lose sight of fact. I don't think this is going to be a case of management vs engineers like Challenger. I don't know if any of you have read Richard Feynman's books, but he sat on the investigation board for the Challenger disaster. He commented that one of the hardest things to do, but that which they had to do, was put what ifs and suppositions out of their minds and try to deal with the facts.
Dittemore has never given anyone any reason to believe he will deliver less than the truth. I think the real enemies here are the politicans who have cut away at NASA's budget forcing people to not only work for less pay, but to even work overtime for free. These kind of people do this because they love what they are doing. Let's please give them a chance. Kathy
I am sorry, but I don't think you have given the suggestion of abandoning the "S" turns a real answer. Answering that NASA has plotted the descent profile with great precision is not a meaningful answer at all.
Yes, I am sure that NASA has some of the best engineers, technicians and technologists working in America. I read the assertion that the programs that control the orbiter's descent are among the most reliable realtime control software ever written -- that they have terrificly well thought-out test-suites, bench-checks, and so on. I am ready to believe that.
But, none of that prevented Columbia sticking with a descent profile that was wildly inappropriate for an Orbiter with a damaged wing.
Let me suggest that what we saw was a failure of imagination.
What did those famous programs do? Information flowed from the Orbiter's sensors that it was having trouble following the descent profile. Information flowed from those sensors that could have been interpreted to mean, "The left wing is experiencing unexpected and alarming drag". But the famous programs apparently were not written to recognize the implications of this unexpected drag. So the program doggedly kept trying to fly level, and bring that lazy left wing back into line, so it was carrying its fair share of the burden of re-entry.
This was exactly what it should have been doing if the wing was undamaged, and the primary goals of the descent profile were to maintain the orbiter's working life to the 100 missions it was designed for, and to make sure it arrived at Kennedy.
In a press conference a week or two after Columbia's loss I heard Ron Dittemore speak about Columbia's reaction to that increased drag. I heard him say that when the flight control surfaces were insufficient to deal with the mounting extra drag on the left wing, the control programs would have kicked in with the attitude control jets, until they were exhausted.
And I thought to myself, "And when the jets are exhausted, boom, Columbia tumbles out of control."
This reflects a clear failure of imagination during the specification of the descent control software. I am ready to believe that NASA engineers made sure that the Orbiter's descent software is marvellously within spec. But, it seems to me, that the specifications were deficient, and that no shuttles should fly until the software can cope better with this kind of damage.
Would Columbia have survived if the control software had been prepared to recognize that the unbalanced drag implied serious damage portside, and adapted to it? This seems unlikely. It looks like the damage was too profound.
But I remain disturbed that the software didn't try adapting.
Excuse me, you expressed this opinion very authoritatively. Can you justify this opinion?
I am not a rocket scientist. Nor do I claim to be. I give my opinions here. And I have explained my reasoning. You haven't.
"Just as risky" you say? Risky to the 100 mission goal of the shuttle design team? Or risky for the life of the crew?
I remember reading in an article in the local paper here (probably reprinted from another paper) that talked about Ron. I found it very interesting he doesn't even have a phd (only a master's degree), yet he is head of a very large NASA program. I think that speaks very highly of him and his education and personality.
I enjoyed watching him giving the press conferences and briefings after the disaster happened, as I knew I'd get the facts with no BS. Once they switched over to the bureaucrats, I stopped watching.
There are only 10 kinds of people in this world... those who understand binary and those who don't