Analyzing the Electoral College
cft_128 writes "David S. Bennahum of has an article that breaks down the numbers in the electoral college, backing up his original 'One Voter One Vote' talk (listen to the mp4). In summary, a vote in Wyoming (has the smallest number of voters per elector) is worth 2.6 votes in Pennsylvania (has the largest number of voters per elector). He has some PDFs of charts, an outline of the talk and a spreadsheet."
While this information may be "true", there still remains a misunderstanding about just how a U.S. President is elected. The point of the Electoral College is not to give individual votes different "weights" (though that may be the effect) but to provide a method of giving States fair representation. The general public needs to understand that U.S. Presidents are NOT elected (or defeated) by majority popular vote but that they are voting for Electors who, in turn, cast THEIR votes for the President at the State level. And to further complicate matters, States have different laws governing how electors are assigned and selected.
This is not to say that the Electoral College is the best system, but we need to remember that if switch to a strict popular vote, then Smalltown, USA or Smallstate, USA would never get fair representation.
My mom always said, "Jim, you're 1 in a million." Given the current population, there are 7000 of me. God help us all!
Actually, because of the winner-take-all nature of the elections, an individual vote in Wyoming has essentially no chance of counting (since the state isn't a swing state), but in Pennsylvania it has a far greater chance of counting.
May we never see th
The smaller more rural states were concerned about being dominated by the larger states with cities in the national arena. It was seen that the interests of the rural and city populations would be different. The scheme of the Senate with two votes per state regardless of population and the two to three bonus (there are no fractional electors after-all, consider this as round-off error depending on where the state falls in relation to other states in the last census) electors for smaller states was devised in part because of that concern.
David is from NY, a state with a number of large cities and he feels underrepresented, but consider the point of view of farmers and ranchers. We can have raging debates ad nausea for example about whether the federal government does too much or too little to assist farmers and ranchers, but the fact of the matter is that if it were not for the systems in place to grant disproportionate weight to rural areas, there would indeed be less aid.
Also, is there really a surprise that cities tend Democratic and rural areas Republican? Again this seems to be sour grapes from David based on his comments.
The electoral college is designed to defend our Federal system: a nation made up of separate states. Saying that the electoral college is not fair is like saying the bicameral legislature is not fair: after all, why don't we trust the house of representatives to make laws free from the interference of the inordinately powerful votes of the small states' senators?
The argument this guy is making ignores the fact that our system is based on one of the most successful compromises in history: many disparate states sacrificing some aspects of sovereignty to form a single nation. Our constitution is set up so that the states choose the president, not the undifferentiated mass of the people. That means that there is intrinsic power in being a state, no matter how small. Article 2 section 1 clause 2 of the united states constitution determines how members of the electoral college are chosen: Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress.
So you see, the number is driven primarily by the population of the state (as the number of the representatives of the lower house of congress is) with a guaranteed minimum of votes to make sure each state gets a say in the process.
Arguing for a number driven entirely by popular vote ignores the realities of separate states in our Federation, and invites secession and the possible dissolution of our nation.
For the slower folks out there, I'll put the punchline here: the dissolution of the United States of America would be so bad for the stability, prosperity, and standard of living for the people of Earth that there aren't words strong enough to convey it.
"Wow. Now THAT'S a lot of angry Indians." - Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer
The electoral college is less of a problem than the fact that we have one vote, one choice. We can't preferentially vote, there's no instant run-off, and so our incentive is always to use our sole vote for the first candidate or the second candidate.
I mean, there are issues with the electoral college, sure, but nothing really compares to the "single choice" model -- *that* is just screwed up.
May we never see th
Democracy is exactly what the founders sought to avoid when they framed the Constitution.
Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.
A democracy is eternally threatened by the power of stupid people in large numbers.
Our form of government is a "representative republic," in which all of the citizens choose a few of their fellow citizens to represent them in the legislature. These representatives are able to make more informed decisions than the mob rule that is democracy.
The name of our country is the "United States." When the United States was formed from the original thirteen colonies, each of these colonies intended to maintain their own autonomy and internal governments.
Each state in the union was intended to be a sovereign governmental entity. The centralized powers of the common federal government binding these united states was intended to be limited to powers specifically enumerated in the Constitution.
In other words, the citizens of the United States federal government are the individual states. It is they who are voting for a President, not the individual citizens of the federation.
That's why most states have a "winner take all" policy for their electoral votes.
The last thing on earth the founders intended was "one voter, one vote," because that is democratic mob rule.
We must be alert to the danger that public policy could become captive to a scientific-technological elite. - Eisenhower
The author of the article needs to do some research in both the history and the mathematics of the electoral college.
From the historical perspective, what the author claims is a problem is *exactly* what was intended by the founding fathers. They were afraid that large, populous states would dominate small states so they made an explicit attempt to counter that large-state dominance.
From a mathematical perspective, Bennahaum is wrong about the effect of the electoral college, and so were the founders. The reason he's wrong is that the method he's using for analyzing the power of a vote -- calculating each voter's "share" of an electoral vote -- is inadequate and fails to account for the fact that most states (all but Vermont, I think) allocate their electoral votes as a bloc.
A better measure of voting power is the Bahnzaf Power Index, which defines the power of a vote as the probability that that vote will "swing" the election. In the case of the electoral college that means you have to do a two-level analysis. For each state, you have to calculate the probability that a single vote in that state will swing that state's electoral votes from one candidate to another. Then, for each state you have to calculate the probability that that state's electoral votes will swing the election.
What comes out of this analysis is the discovery that the voters in the smallest states have far *less* power than the voters in large states. We saw evidence of this in 2000: Florida was not the only state with a very tight election but no one bothered fighting (much) about the others because they were smaller states and didn't matter. Whichever way Florida's 25 votes would win, regardless of the other outcomes.
That said, more recent statistical analysis (which I can't find right now, but there are some papers on the web) that takes into account the current structure of political power in the United States shows that, in fact, the net effect of the electoral college is pretty close to zero. Beyond the math, history shows this pretty clearly as well: There have only been three presidential elections in the 200-year history of the US where the electoral college produced a different result than a purely popular vote would have.
In my opinion, the founders were right about the need for something to shift power to smaller states, because as a resident of a smaller state it's quite clear that our voices are completely irrelevant. So, if you want to fix the electoral college, you should just modify it so that states allocate their electoral votes proportionally, based on the votes cast in that state. That will (mostly) eliminate the bloc voting effect while retaining the balancing feature that has, unfortunately, never worked.
Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
Mod parent up, please.
It's worth reading, whether you agree, or not.
As a comment on the parent, it's much easier to tear down and replace a state government by voting than it is the federal. The more power that can be pushed down to the states, the more you can directly effect change with your vote.
Keep in mind that a ??AA "takeover" of California mostly affects California, but ??AA "takeover" of the US government affects the rest of us. I know "takeover" is a bit strong, but essentially the various industries *are* attempting to take over those aspects of the federal government that affect their business. In the case of the ??AA, they *have* taken over copyright, and those aspects of IP enforcement that pertain.
The living have better things to do than to continue hating the dead.
In the past and in the present, the majority of people is descended from the Europeans. Although prejudice and racism exist among these people, they are nowhere near as bad as the prejudice and racism that exist among Hispanics, Indians, and Chinese. Whenever the dying Ku Klux Klan hold a demonstration, plenty of Americans of European ancestry hold counter demonstrations.
I have never heard anyone talking about the greatness of "White Culture". I have heard of people talking about the greatness of "Western Culture". Here, "Western" is a cultural term, and anyone can be Western (including Hispanics and Chinese) although most Hispanics and Chinese reject being Western.
Now, consider Hispanics. They often talk about "Hispanic Culture" and "Chinese Culture". These bigots use "Hispanic" and "Chinese" in the sense of genetics. An American of Vietnamese ancestry is not welcome in these other cultures because, according to Hispanics, a Vietnamese cannot be Hispanic or Chinese.
The Hispanics pride themselves on racist organizations like La Raza, the Hispanic equivalent of the Ku Klux Klan. To understand the nature of La Raza, I offer the following quote from a speech by Jose Angel Gutierrez, professor at the University of Texas at Arlington and founder of La Raza (short for La Raza Unida Party). He gave the speech at UC Riverside in 1/1995.
The border remains a military zone. We remain a hunted people. Now you think you have a destiny to fulfill in the land that historically has been ours for forty thousand years. And we're a new Mestizo nation. And they want us to discuss civil rights. Civil rights. What law made by white men to oppress all of us of color, female and male. This is our homeland. We cannot - we will not- and we must not be made illegal in our own homeland. We are not immigrants that came from another country to another country. We are migrants, free to travel the length and breadth of the Americas because we belong here. We are millions. We just have to survive. We have an aging white America. They are not making babies. They are dying. It's a matter of time. The explosion is in our population.
You can also listen to the an actual audio clip of the quote above. There is an important web site with other quotes and audio clips.
Is anyone shocked by La Raza and the Hispanics who support La Raza? La Raza is the Hispanic equivalent of the Ku Klux Klan.
I am extremely concerned that La Raza will become the "one party" that controls America in 2025. Our refusal to control our borders has led to an explosive political dynamic that will be hostile to anyone who is not Hispanic.
How will the electoral college come into play? Consider the scenario where Hispanics (and Indians and Chinese) dominate the scene in the USA. For example, suppose that the people who consider themselves un-hyphenated Americans are now isolated as simply majorities in North Dakota, Washington, and Michigan. The rest of the country is dominated by hyphenated Americans like the Hispanics (and Indians and Chinese). Well, with the electoral college, the un-hyphenated Americans have a chance to protect (e.g. filibuster in the Senate) their rights in Congress. Without the electoral college, the Chinese would just rape un-hyphenated Americans.
Just look at the "Politics" discussion forum to understand how Hispanics, Indians, and Chinese act. Too many moderators mod an article based on the viewpoint in the article. For example, if there is an article condemning the Chinese for occupying Tibet, then you can be sure that someone will mod that article down as a "Troll" or "Flamebait". The phenomenon also occurs when you write an article
Here's an interesting question for you all. What do you think it would take to get enough political willpower in the U.S. to scrap this system?
Four years ago, I would have said "Have someone lose the popular vote but win the electoral vote." Obviously I was wrong. But 2000 was a special case -- all the controversy swirling around Florida meant that by the time things were finally settled, no one wanted to think or hear about presidential elections anymore. In fact, there are any number of both Bush and Gore supporters from 2000 who probably don't even know, or quickly forgot, that Gore came in first in the popular vote overall.
So, what if this year the same thing happens, but the parties reverse -- Kerry wins the Electoral College (and the presidency), Bush wins the popular vote? Would the two parties see the last two elections as enough impetus to change or scrap the EC? Even if the national parties agreed, could they enforce party discipline on the state level to push the necessary constitutional changes through the state legislatures?
For my personal opinion -- I say scrap it, or at least modify it so that the whole country does a proportional or by-congressional-district apportionment like Maine and Nebraska. I know all the arguments about federalism -- I just don't find them that persuasive or relevant. The bottom line is that the Presidency and the U.S. central government are now so powerful, and so intrusive in people's lives, that to give some U.S. citizens extra voting power just because of where they happen to live extremely undemocratic. And yes, with modern American mobility, it *is* a matter of "where they happen to live" -- people move across state lines all the time, and I don't think loyalty to one's home state is anywhere near what it used to be.
In addition, several of the founding concepts of the system seem to be to flawed or no longer relevant. States of a similar size don't necessarily have similar interestes -- compare D.C. and Wyoming (3 EVs), Maryland and Arizona (10 EVs), New York and Texas (31-34 EVs). And states don't necessarily have monolithic interests -- New York and California both contains regions with wildly different demographic and political profiles.
jf
I am very much in favor of the Electoral College, although I agree that certain tweaks are necessary, specifically the winner-take-all system that nearly all of the States have adopted.
Mr. Bennahum, you appear to be statistically oriented.... try applying those statistics to the inherit error involved in a nation-wide direct-vote Presidential election. Be sure to factor in electoral problems like the ones in New Mexico and Florida in the 2000 election.
Pretty high, isn't it? That's right it is.
Not only does the Electoral College ensure that a Presidential Candidate be palatable to most of the States in the country (as Luke White mentioned), it also ensures a final vote that has zero statistic error. Although whether or not a particular vote should have been one way or the other could come in to question, the vote itself, once cast, is solid and undeniable. There is zero doubt about the legitimacy of the Presidency in such as system.
Invariably, whenever there is a close race, somebody calls for the abolishment of the Electoral College. The thing is... close races are when the Electoral College goes to *work*, not when it gets in the way.
Fix the Electoral College, don't remove it.
"Times have not become more violent. They have just become more televised."
-Marilyn Manson
The problem is in the Congress. The Presidential elections are probably the only elections at the Federal level that the public has ANY chance to truly affect.
House of Representatives? Not really. A large number run unopposed, nearly 3/4s win their district by 60%+, and in 2002 only 4 of them lost their seats!
The Senate is nearly as bad. I don't have the statistics at hand (being at work) but the turnover in the Senate is near the House levels and worse the parties are not above using shennagins to protect seats.
(on the previous post, NY and CA do not have wildy different political profiles, especially when you factor in the abundant influences of their cities - which is what the article author is aiming for - giving population centers more influence)
* Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
how we got a guy like Cheney running the country.
Friends don't let friends port Ada code.
it also ensures a final vote that has zero statistic error.
It does no such thing!
There is zero doubt about the legitimacy of the Presidency in such as system.
Just because the final addition is too simple for any math errors to creep in, it absolutely doesn't protect the result from doubt about legitimacy. Or haven't you noticed the bumper stickers with "Let's not elect him in 2004 either" ?
Mathmatically, error propagates throughout expressions. If term B isn't believed to be correct, then A+B+C isn't believable either. Someone who thinks (for whatever reason) that Florida was counted wrong won't agree that Bush really won.
The problem with the electoral college is the popular election of electors. The problems associated with slates of electors and first-past-the-post occur ONLY because electors are popularly elected.
Ultimately, it's up to the state legislatures to decide how electors are choosen, so it doesn't make sense to talk about the inequity of the situation. The system was never meant to work by way of popular voting, and anyways it was intentionally never meant to be equitable even between states (ignoring the popular vote issue for a moment) - that's the whole point as you note in reply - to give smaller states a little bit more leverage over the larger ones, so that politicians wouldn't ignore the smaller states.
So all that statistical analysis is nice and dandy and all, but it COMPLETELY ignores the fundamental reason of why the system was created the way it was in the first place.
People should get a clue as to why it is the way it is before they rush off insisting it be changed.
Further, they might well consider why it wasn't setup from the start to use popular election of electors, and it wasn't just because of issues of communication and transportation...
Government IS the problem.
Farming is a capital intensive business, and most farmers who are actually making a living at it have very large capital assets - that is, their farms, their farm equipment. Some of that equipment depreciates, but a lot of it (buildings, silo's, etc.) appreciates. I'm not sure, but I believe livestock transactions can also count as capital gains (i.e. buy a little cow, grow it, and sell it.)
You're forgetting another huge deal for farmers: environmental laws. Liberals tend to be entirely focused on mediapathic factories belching smoke when they pass these things, without realizing that agricultural runoff is the biggest source of water polution, with agricultural operations also being potentially a major source of air polution. Ever smell a pig farm? Farmers deal with environmental regulations all year long, and it's not surprising that they would prefer not to have too many of them.
As for tax rates, you need to start reading a newspaper and stop reading JohnKerry.com. The bottom marginal tax rate is 10% - a cut from 15% pushed through by Bush. What with tax credits and all, most working Americans who woul d pay the 10% rate actually have a negative tax rate - they got more money back than they paid.
s/conservatives/libertarians/You'd do well not to confuse the two.
That's really not the argument among any conservative with half a brain. The argument is that we give special and exceptional protections to marriage since it results in children, who must be protected. "Gay marriage" furthers the incorrect progressive notion that marriage is about personal gratification rather than social cooperation."He who would learn astronomy, and other recondite arts, let him go elsewhere. " -- John Calvin, commenting on Genesis 1
Imagine you were building a semi-democratic nation from a blank slate ... Would you try to make each citizen's vote equally powerful, or give extra-weight to the residents of certain areas?
Probably some version of the latter. I think people misunderstand that the USA (which was originally spelled with a lowercase 'u' in united) was intended to be better than a democracy because it included numerous checks and balances against the potential tyranny of pure democracies.
The electoral voting system, combined with putting almost all important laws at the state and not federal level, was one of those checks designed to protect minority rights. You could voluntarily associate with any state you felt matched your personal "culture" and the more numerous people who didn't match you would have a harder time voting to confiscate your possessions, enforcing their lifestyle preferences on you, and so on.
It was designed as a protection of diversity, and any form of protection of minority rights against a majority must, by definition, end up giving extra weight to some votes over others in at least some circumstances.
It seems to me that if you are going to do this, the fairest system is one that is attached to physical locations and not personal traits such as race. Instead of being born with inalienable extra rights relative to others, you can gain them or lose them by moving elsewhere, which all are free to do.
I'm not saying, though, that the electoral system currently in use is the best way, just that it is not the bogeyman that simple-minded analysis often portrays.
"Those who have never entered upon scientific pursuits know not a tithe of the poetry by which they are surrounded."
There are some good arguments out there that say that shifting power to the smaller states was not what they really wanted. This is from the linked article:
The 3/5 compromise gave white land owners in southern states, especially Virginia, much more power in choosing president than the smaller northern states. In the 1800 election between John Adams (not a slave owner) and Thomas Jefferson (slave owner from virginia) John Adams would have won if the 3/5 compromise had not been in place.Underloved Movies and Pub Quiz: donotquestionme.org
Why do people think that State and Local governments are so unimportant. I hear a lot of complaints about the effect of Bush's domestic policies. Every time someone complains about them, they should bear in mind that when Clinton was in office, people in conservative states were disadvantaged by his more liberal domestic policy. The problem is not that Clinton and Bush have/had Liberal and Conservative domestic polities, but that the federal government itself has too much power. Despite what people often seem to believe, values differ drastically from state to state. It doesn't make any sense to have the same rules and regulations applied across the entire country.
"That said, more recent statistical analysis (which I can't find right now, but there are some papers on the web) that takes into account the current structure of political power in the United States shows that, in fact, the net effect of the electoral college is pretty close to zero."
A working paper by Katz, Gelman, and King comes to mind. (Also, another analysis of voting power under the Electoral College system by Gelman and Katz, as well as a critique of the applicability of the Banzhaf index in this case.)
If we had a national popular vote system, would we also need to have elections run by the Federal government? For example wouldn't it benefit a state (with a clear majority) to say have no minimum age on voting? At the current time, voting age is determined by the state. It would seem like a good idea to let ANYONE vote and allow their parents to help them.
IIRC, there was a correlation someone did once comparing, state by state, the federal tax revenues received and federal spending applied - the sparsely-populated states did much better, as you might expect with Senate representation being independent of population.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
From the historical perspective, what the author claims is a problem is *exactly* what was intended by the founding fathers. They were afraid that large, populous states would dominate small states so they made an explicit attempt to counter that large-state dominance.
So many people claim to know what the Founding Fathers had in mind. Why don't we settle it: Have John Edwards "channel" the founders just like he "channeled" the spirit of the deceaced girl he represented in court.
That should settle it.
Global warming is neither science, nor politics. It is a religion.
See: http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is _n11_v17/ai_18762289
or: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6009993/
While any system will have problems; one of the major pluses for the Electoral College is to do something to even out the fact that politics is local and force the national canidates to address issues from more than one region of the country.