Next Gen Console Commentary

Today has seen a bit of commentary on each of the three next-gen consoles, all relatively positive. The PlayStation 3 has seen users for the PSN community crack the 1.3 million mark, according to Next Generation. If you enjoy the Wii's Virtual Console feature, Chris Kohler has you set up today with a rundown on every VC title rumored or released to date. Nintendo's consoles are selling pretty well, too. Microsoft has had something of a mixed day. On the one hand gamers can look forward to Beautiful Katamri coming to XBLA in the states. On the other, an investment adviser has called Microsoft's entire gaming business a 'disastrous endeavor'.

Comments

waiting for Godot

[vethia]

I guess I'm probably the only nerd out there holding out to see which console (or consoles) ends up with the continuing Final Fantasy lineup... or am I?

Re:waiting for Godot

[networkBoy]

Likely.

Though I'm holding out for Halo3 (and playing it at least a couple times one someone else's dime).
-nB

Re:waiting for Godot

[My name is Bucket]

The next FF installment will actually be a series of 6+ games. The spinoffs will be on a number of consoles, but the main game will be PS3 exclusive.

Re:waiting for Godot

[DarkJC]

Yeah, they tend to do "universes" of games now. I believe the one coming up is the Fabula Nova Chrysalis(sp?) series, and so far yeah, the main game is PS3 exclusive with other games moving to other platforms (like FFagito13 for mobile phones)

Re:waiting for Godot

[thanatos_x]

I believe its been stated that FF XIII isn't going to be PS3 exclusive. The issue is at least open to debate, as mentioned here http://www.gamespot.com/ps3/rpg/finalfantasy13/new s.html?sid=6167864&om_act=convert&om_clk=mostpop&t ag=mostpop;title;1/

Re:waiting for Godot

[bigstrat2003]

No, you're not.

Re:waiting for Godot

[Anonymous Coward]

Square-Enix will either port the main FF13 to the Wii or simply say that the PS3 FF13 has no greater significance than the others and cut some of its funding. Japanese PS3 sales are abysmal (although not quite as bad as the Xbox 360) and releasing something that costs that much to develop on just the PS3 would be suicide. We've already seen that Square-Enix is moving Dragon Quest to the DS since DS titles are dominating the Japanese charts and total DS hardware sales are expected to pass PS2 sales in Japan.

The people who think that Square-Enix can pick whatever console they want to release a game on are naive. Sure, some of the die hard fans will follow them wherever they go, but most die hard fans have a finite amount of money and can only follow Square-Enix to consoles they can afford.

Re:waiting for Godot

[7Prime]

Yes, except that the exclusivity is completely up for grabs. The only thing we know is that FF13 will be released for the PS3... whether its exclusive or not is not known anymore. CEO of SCE France has indicated that there is trouble in this area. It should be noted that he was only talking about the "Final Fantasy XIII" game, in particular, not Versus XIII or the rest of the series. Currently FFvXIII is still slated to be a PS3 exclusive, agito is for cellphones, and Square has strongly hinted that there will be a Wii and DS exclusive in the lineup for the other three.

Who knows, FFXIII may once again regain its Sony exclusivity, but for the moment, that is doubtfull. I'd look for it exploding out into all consoles and PC, if it loses exclusivity... since it would be more ecconomical to do so.

Re:waiting for Godot

[7Prime]

Your guess is probably just as good as anyone elses. Mine goes something like this:

Square has pulled the exclusivity for FF13 (proper) and will port it to 360, Wii, and PC (this is very ecconomical for an RPG developer, since RPG developement is about 95% in design, which will be identical across the board). The game will be held back until all four versions are complete, and quite possibly Versus 13, 13 Agito, and maybe one of the other ones will come out first, as teasers.

Some of this will be announced in about 3 weeks at the Square conference.

Re:waiting for Godot

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm not so sure about the chances of it being released on Xbox 360 or PC. They've released on PC before but stopped doing that after lackluster sales (well except for XI, which is an oddball) and the 360's irrelevent in Japan (even after the release of Blue Dragon which was the 360's only chance there). But then again, if they did go multiplatform they might be able to justify releasing on 360 because the 360 is relevent in the US and Europe and FF is actually a bigger franchise in the US and Europe than it is in Japan.

But I think we can agree that the FFXIII isn't going to be a PS3 exclusive unless the PS3 sheds a few hundred dollars/thousand yen between now and FFXIII's release.

Re:waiting for Godot

[senatorpjt]

Well, if one considers that the 360 is a total failure in Japan, where RPG's are a lot more popular, it may not be so.

Re:waiting for Godot

[Anonymous Coward]

If I had to guess, I'd say Sony has already secured exclusivity of FF13 and MGS4, about the time Capcom announced DMC4 going multi-plat.
They know these 2 games are their most important aces in the console war, and the only scenario where they wouldn't secure them is if they didn't care about Ps3 success as a console.

That is the reason, SE came up with these dozens of spin-off. By reusing the design and engine, but making slightly different games, they get the overhead of a multiplaform game instead of the cost multiple games and yet they keep the exclusivity agreement with sony with better profit shares(for the main game).

Disclaimer: I have no internal information from Sony or SE, and those hypothesis up there are just that.

Re:waiting for Godot

[i kan reed]

And I just read that it will be both Xbox 360 and Playstation 3.

Re:waiting for Godot

[KDR_11k]

Ironically the 360 still has the most japanese RPGs out of all three next gen systems.

Re:waiting for Godot

[mindwhip]

1.3 million? Thats nothing compared to the number of WoW players... and thats just one PC game.

Re:waiting for Godot

[mindwhip]

I mean PC/Mac of course :)

Re:waiting for Godot

[Pluvius]

Anyone who seriously thinks that FF13 will be ported to the Wii is high. Since FF7, top-shelf graphical quality has been a hallmark of the series, and the Wii simply can't handle that. I'm pretty sure Square is releasing a spinoff on the Wii, but that's all that system's going to get.

As for the XBox 360, that's a bit more likely, but still doubtful because of that system's horrendous performance in Japan. Simply porting FF13 to the 360 would not be that beneficial to Square in the West either, since most FF fans have already resigned themselves to the idea of buying a PS3 when the game comes out. MS would benefit greatly from a 360 port, but Square has little incentive (especially against the massive amounts of money that Sony will surely be paying them for exclusivity), and would end up just cannibalizing its sales of the PS3 version.

Rob

Re:waiting for Godot

[7Prime]

Well, what do you suggest then? Since Sony has already let on that S-E is seriously considering pulling its exclusivity. This is not anyone's imagination or dream, this is real. It doesn't mean it IS going to happen, but that there's a real, and documented possibility of it happening.

So what's it going to be? 360, Wii, or PC?

You're wrong about the graphics, btw. FF12 was just released on the PS2, a system with about 1/5 of the graphical power of the Wii, and it did really well. FF7 had terrible graphics for its time, FF12 had terrible graphics for its time, and FF1-5 had terrible graphics for their time. The only ones that were at the top of their game were FF8, FF9, and FFX. The series is popular because of the quality of the whole, not because of the graphics. RPG fans have much less interest in graphics than you give us credit for. The Wii is completely capable of handling the next FF game. Hell, if FF12 had been ported to the GameCube/Wii, it would have looked 3x as good, but we settled for the POS graphics we got on the PS2 (although I was kinda put off... after playing Twlight Princess, it was pretty painful).

Re:waiting for Godot

[Pluvius]

Since Sony has already let on that S-E is seriously considering pulling its exclusivity.

Sony hasn't let on anything; that's just wishful interpretation by the anti-Sony zealots. All Sony said is that it hadn't secured exclusivity yet, which doesn't mean anything in and of itself. If there were any real fire in this, you'd expect Square to say something.

FF12 was just released on the PS2, a system with about 1/5 of the graphical power of the Wii, and it did really well.

FF12's situation has nothing to do with FF13. The only reason FF12 was released for the PS2 is because it was too early to start next-gen development when Square began the project. That's not true for FF13.

FF7 had terrible graphics for its time

I was actually around when FF7 came out, and I can tell you that you're full of shit. FF7's graphics were quite amazing at that point in time, especially in regards to RPGs.

FF12 had terrible graphics for its time

Again, full of shit. FF12 has the best graphics on the system aside from a few arguable outliers like God of War, and some of the best graphics of that generation overall. Even against many of the XBox 360 games released at the time, it holds up well enough. Any serious critic will agree with me on this point.

The series is popular because of the quality of the whole, not because of the graphics. RPG fans have much less interest in graphics than you give us credit for.

That's true, but that's not the same thing as saying that graphics aren't a hallmark of the late part of the series. I should also point out that there are a lot of people who have little interest in RPGs aside from FF, and graphics go a long way in that demographic.

Hell, if FF12 had been ported to the GameCube/Wii, it would have looked 3x as good

It probably would've looked a bit better on the Gamecube, but nowhere near enough to call FF12's actual graphical quality "terrible." Unlike, I might add, what the difference would be between the graphical quality on the Wii and the graphical quality on the PS3.

Rob

Re:waiting for Godot

[7Prime]

I'll still stand by the fact that FF12 had pretty crappy graphics. I'd take Tales of Symphonia, a cellshaded, mid-gen GameCube title, over FF12 any day in terms of cleanliness and polish. There's a difference between "great graphics" and "polished graphics", and FF12s is less than polished. When objects suddenly pop into view at about 50ft, and textures suddenly shift resolution intermitantly, you know you've got an ugly game... FF12 may have been a great game, but it was ugly as sin. My problem with the PS2s graphics are not that they didn't allow for a lot of different effects (they did), but they took a "jack of all trades, master of none" approach, in which ALL the graphics looked very mediocre. This was mostly due to an outragious lack of smoothing.

I really could care less about fancy shader effects, high polygon count, or high resolutions, but as long as a platform doesn't allow a game to look clean and polished, that's going to get in the way. I don't feel that a single game on the PS2 looked completely polished. Even Shadow of the Collosus, which many go on and on about how pretty it was... yes, the design was great, but the system just didn't allow it to breathe fully, it still looked pixelated and had major slowdown problems. I'd rather take WarioWare style graphics, any day, if it can be made to feel more polished. And I really think few games on the GameCube didn't look polished.

I just played the PS3 version of Need For Speed Carbon the other day at Fred Meyers, and to my dismay, I got that very same unpolished feeling. I was seeing perpendicular line jaggies, uneven edges, and everything I remember hating about the PS2s graphics... it was just in HD with some prettier lighting effects. I looked over at a Wii playing the Twilight Princess open, and it looked cleaner.

I can't be sure that the TV wasn't malfunctioning, but currently, I'm really not convinced that the PS3s graphics are anywhere as capable as the 360s. And as long as Sony insists on not pushing developers into making polished looking games (one thing I've always appreciated about Nintendo), I dunno if I'm ever going to like them as much as 480p Wii graphics.

Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[richdun]

On the other, an investment adviser has called Microsoft's entire gaming business a 'disastrous endeavor'.

Most investment advisors (the ones with an "o", not the ones with an "e") are mad at Microsoft because they have little to no debt, a ton of cash, and a healthy but not spectacular dividend. Yet they remain a viable company, making money and what-not. It kills me how little room for innovation is allowed in what most financial people use to define a "success." Whether the gaming division has made money to date or not, and I'm no Microsoft fan, you have to admit that branching out into something other than purely software and gaining a market-leading position is a Good Thing in the long-term for the shareholders (like myself).

Re:Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[Maxwell]

Microsoft making game hardware is like Ford making refrigerators. Branching out is one thing, straying so far from your core competencies (i.e. what you are good at) in an industry plagued with losses is not smart for shareholders, yourself included. Microsoft is sitting on piles of your money, and they keep throwing it away on game consoles with no end in site. Sony lost $1B so far on the PS3. Microsoft loses that every year, year after year (approaching six years now)! I don't own any shares, but if I did I would want my share of Microsoft's profits in a dividend, not thrown away on a lost cause like Xbox. The cries to bail out will only get stronger as PS3 creeps up on Xbox360 in global sales...

JON

Re:Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[Twiceblessedman]

How exactly are they a market leader? The 360 is not selling all that well worldwide. The ps2 is still the market leader and the wii will probably be the one for the next generation.

Re:Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[Wonko the Sane]

Microsoft

core competencies

...never mind

Re:Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[Rosebud128]

Just because one makes tons of money in one sector doesn't mean you have a viable business model in the other. Sony making money off of TVs doesen't excuse the PS3 problems, for example. Even IBM makes tons of money but they still lost relevance (which appears what Microsoft is losing).

Also, it remains to be seen whether Microsoft can succeed in a market defined by consumer choice. Most people do not choose Windows; they are tethered into a user end agreement for buying any PC.

Anyone who believes losing billions of dollars is a good *move*, I feel sorry you. Such a 'success' would destroy any other business.

The silver lining (and end objective) would be the implosion of Sony's video game business. Only in that context could losing so much money be seen as "worth it" for a defense stratategy against Sony's encroachment.

Re:Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[Anonymous Coward]

Actually, during their last quarter, the Xbox 360 by itself was profitable. The problem is that the 360's numbers are mixed in with their other "entertainment" projects like the Zune and whatever tablet internet appliance thingy they are putting on the market any particular year. Had the Zune not launched- and launching a whole new product line usually cost at least $500 million in advertising and startup costs- their entertainment division would have shown a profit. As it was, they showed a much smaller loss than previous quarters (despite the Zune flopping). The simple facts are 1) They sell each 360 consle at a profit (~$75) and peripherals and games are pure profit. 2) They don't have to lower their console prices anytime soon because Sony just eliminated their lower cost model (so the least expensive 360 is HALF the price of the ONLY PS3) and Sony is losing ~$200 per console (and Blu-ray is a total flop) 3) Microsoft has just launched several hit IPs like Gears of War and Crackdown and have many more in the wings like Too Human and Mass Effect. 4) XBox Live Marketplace and surprisingly Video Marketplace have taken off beyond anyone's wildest expectations so that's more pure profit 5) Halo 3- nuff said. The 360 project is already making more money than it burns and Microsoft will probably make back their investment easily within two years. They've also stopped Sony dead in their tracks and are eating into their market position as the PS2 dies off (360 had four of the top 10 sellers last month while the PS2 only had two). So it's making money and it is expanding them into a new market. I don't see how you could call that anything but a success.

Re:Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm sorry, what part of

a total loss of USD 5.4 billion from its efforts

did you not follow?

From a $21 billion investment over the last 5 years, to still be $5 billion behind - that's a bit more than the launch of the Zune. I'd also be doubtful about whether the tablet would fall under the home entertainment division. If they turned a $5 billion profit in today on the sales of X360 alone (as you say, it's making money!) they'd still only have broken even over 5 years. A simple TVM calculation will show you: that's not positive. Shareholders? Want positive.

Ultimately, shareholders will ask questions about where their money is going, and when there will be a return on investment. (Sony's shareholders, on the other hand, will merely whimper pray that the division that made them oodles of money and propped up a lot of the rest won't be the one that sinks them now)

Re:Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[JFMulder]

I think what the other poster meant was that last quarter the 360 part of the division actually turned a profit, then said profit was eaten by other stuff like Zune. And again, that 5.4 billion lost is not only xbox and 360, but IPTV and other entertainment stuff.

So killing 360 right now wouldn't make any sense, if the 360 business actually made a profit. What they *could* reevaluate is the Zune and IPTV business.

Re:Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[jmpeax]

Microsoft has made considerable ground on Sony, and has entered the market in a very effective way. They may be losing money now, but in the long term you can be sure that they will make it up. After all, Microsoft is selling 360s at a profit, Sony is selling PS3s at a loss.

Re:Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[Anonymous Coward]

If you check out the figures on the analyst's blog, not very far down the post, you'll see that with the exception of 2005, they've lost over $1 billion a year - in 2005 it was a measly $485 million. 2006 included a big spending increase - in the order of nearly $2 billion, all of which I'd say can't be accounted for by the Zune. Also, if they're at all sensible about it, each Zune will be selling with a far higher return than each X360 console. His main criticism appears to be that they really need to think about the appeal in Japan if they're to have a hope of matching Sony's success.

I will agree that killing the Xbox program would be extremely stupid, after having sunk so much money into it =)

Re:Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[OK PC]

I'm sorry but that analogy is just stupid. Microsoft had far more experience with gaming than Sony ever did when they started out. Microsoft had developed their own gaming API, made their own peripherals and had vast experience with the platform the XBox was based on (namely a PC). Sony on the other hand made an unfinished CD drive for the SNES. People don't question Sony's decision to enter the video game market do they?

Re:Losing Money != A Bad Thing

[Anonymous Coward]

So when MS makes software its dumb and not what they should be doing, but when Apple makes software its fucking amazing? Give me a break, MS is the reason consoles are more adult oriented than ever, the reason so many good PC developers have moved over to the console and the reason why I can now play good Western RPGs on a console.

In terms of wasted money? I think that LIVE may change things and we have to wait and see. Most importantly, like you I don't own shares, so why should we care as long as we get good games? Play games, talk about games, but dont play games and talk about the market.

Beautiful Katamari

[xantho]

It's going to be a regular game with expansion content available for download on Xbox Live (presumably in exchange for money). It's not going to be a Live Arcade game in its entirety.

Katamari on XBLA?

[Osty]

Where in the article did it say anything about Katamari shipping on XBLA rather than as a retail game? Given the importance of the funky J-pop music to the Katamari titles, it would seem disastrous to me to ship it in a state where it can only be as large as 250MB.

The article did speculate that online multiplayer would be an additional future download, but that doesn't have anything to do with XBLA. The speculation is written in a confusing way as to imply that users would have to pay for that download, but they may have only meant that Xbox 360 users have to pay a monthly fee for a Gold subscription in order to play multiplayer online (and that the additional download would be free). Personally, I don't care either way. What I do care about is that I can get my Katamari fix without having to drop $600 on a PS3.

Re:Katamari on XBLA?

[Wordplay]

I don't think any of the releases have suggested online multiplayer would be a downloadable content item. I think the article was just trollishly and confusingly referring to the Xbox Live fee.

Still Next Gen?

[Le_Papet]

All of these consoles have been out for months now...when do they cease being "next gen"?

Re:Still Next Gen?

[dank zappingly]

When one of them begins to outsell the PS2? My guess is that this should happen once the Wii is no longer supply constrained.

Re:Still Next Gen?

[Anonymous Coward]

When they start outselling the PS2.

Re:Still Next Gen?

[DDLKermit007]

February:
Nintendo DS: 485,000
Nintendo Wii: 335,000
Sony PlayStation 2: 295,000
Microsoft Xbox 360: 228,000
Sony PlayStation Portable: 176,000
Nintendo Game Boy Advance: 136,000
Sony PlayStation 3: 127,000

You don't keep up on things very well I take it.

Re:Still Next Gen?

[zdude255]

Once they stop selling games for last-gen.

Re:Still Next Gen?

[Anonymous Coward]

You don't keep up on things very well I take it.

Sorry, we're busy keeping up on things that actually matter, instead of video game sales figures.

Re:Still Next Gen?

[Anonymous Coward]

So says the troll on a gaming thread...

Re:Still Next Gen?

[Synonymous Cowherd]

Perhaps Microsoft were silly to stop selling first generation Xboxes?

Next generation...?

[Mattsson]

Wouldn't that be the Playstation 4, Xbox 720 and Nintendo Whoop? (or whatever the next generation consoles will be called)
PS3, XB360 and Wii are now current generation consoles, with PS2, XB and GC being last generation.

Re:Next generation...?

[PhoenixOne]

With normal technology, next means next. But in the hype-fueled world of computer games, you are living in tomorrow today!

The PS3 is next generation, the PS2 is the current generation (you can tell by the sales ;)), and the PS4 is the next-next generation.

I've been living in the game industry so long that I eat my lunch at 8am, dinner is at noon, and I have tomorrow's breakfast at 7pm.

Re:Next generation...?

[vertigoCiel]

No man, Sony learned the consequences of having a lame-numbered console (PS3) go up against a much higher number console (the 360), and Microsoft knows they need to keep upping the ante. So Next Generation consoles are gonna be the Playstation 4,000,000, the Microsoft Xbox (int sum = 0; int i; for (i = 0; i = 1,000,000,000; i++)sum += x[i];), and the Nintendo Infinity+1.

1.3m on PSN?

[CelticLo]

Considering the amount of Americans who registered a 2nd account to get Gran Turismo HD which Sony ended up releasing worldwide...

Ford Refrigerators

[sd.fhasldff]

I could go on about how Microsoft isn't *really* making gaming hardware or how they've always made hardware (mice and keyboards), but that would miss the real point completely. The point is simply that:

XBox fits perfectly into Microsofts CORE business strategy: Everything should run Windows.

For consoles, this requires owning the ecosystem; having your own console. It's as simple as that.

Microsoft wants ATMs to run Windows (just as they want EVERYTHING to run Windows) and if that required actually making the ATMs, then I'm sure Microsoft would consider doing that. As it is, the volume probably isn't there and it doesn't matter, because it *doesn't* require owning the ecosystem. It just required waiting for IBM to stop supporting OS/2 ;-)

It's the same thing with PDAs, TVs and practically any other device (in wide-spread use) which requires an "interactive" OS. Microsoft's MO is pretty much the same every time. If there isn't a way to just stick Windows on it easily, they'll make the hardware themselves and show it off as prototypes. They've done this with complete computers, with servers, with PDAs, with TVs - and even with your Ford Refrigerators.

Re:Ford Refrigerators

[Guntram Shatterhand,]

I hate to mention this, but the Xbox isn't Microsoft's first foray into gaming. The Dreamcast ran Windows CE without a problem and if it had a DVD player in it, it might still be around today.

Next Gen? More like Current Gen

[Mex]

I don't know if you noticed but the Xbox 360 has been out for well over a year now, and the PS3 and Wii are 6 months into their lifespan.

I propose you stop calling them "Next Gen".

Zonk didn't mention Beautiful Katamari on the PS3

[Pluvius]

Of course.

But forget that; didn't Namco say that We Love Katamari was going to be the last game in the series?

Rob

Option D

[Debug0x2a]

Cowboy Niil

Win95 runs my elevators

[fistfullast33l]

The elevators in my office building run Windows 95. How do I know? You walk into the Elevator and the screen has a giant BSOD on it. Then they reboot with the Win 95 logo showing up. However, everytime it shakes a little bit as it descends, I can't help but wonder whether it's Microsoft or the elevator that's causing it....

No need to question Sony

[fistfullast33l]

People don't question Sony's decision to enter the video game market do they?

Of course they don't - Sony dominated the market for two generations. They didn't need to question Sony's decision. Microsoft got obliterated by a late start last generation and this generation they're only ahead because 1) they underpriced their main competitor, who only are losing due to massive PR fuckups and 2) they released earlier than anyone else. But I think there isn't a person who doubts that the Wii will catch Microsoft by year's end. It's still up in the air whether Sony is going to catch Microsoft (they're outselling the Xbox in Japan, and catching up in Europe) and now they've gone and made a disastrous decision to launch a new Xbox model with a few upgrades and a higher price - thus eliminating the biggest advantage they had! People don't buy 360 over PS3 for Xbox Live, they do it because it's cheaper and has more titles out. But Sony has shown it can develop a large library, so basically Microsoft is one slipup away from finishing two generations in a row in last place.

Re:No need to question Sony

[metroid composite]

But I think there isn't a person who doubts that the Wii will catch Microsoft by year's end. Worldwide? That'll probably happen, but I do have doubts (if 360 sold exactly like last year, which it has so far, it'll hit 17 million; the Wii's currently selling a million a month, which would only put them at 15 million). In North America? No chance in hell. (The Wii would need to outsell the 360 by an average of 400,000 units per month for the rest of the year, whereas it has yet to beat the 360 by more than 150,000 units. Oh, and the 360's got Halo 3, GTA4, and the possibility of a price drop on the way, so it's not likely to just roll over on the holidays). In Japan? It already happened the day the Wii launched. In Europe the Wii will probably pass the 360 this year, but as always European charts aren't tracked too meticulously so I can't really point to any trends, again leaving me with some uncertainty.