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Zipingpu Dam May Have Triggered the Sichuan Quake

bfwebster writes "An article in the Telegraph (UK) raises an interesting question: was the massive (7.9) Sichuan earthquake that wracked China last year and left millions homeless caused by ground stresses following the completion of the Zipingpu dam? As the article notes, 'The 511-ft-high Zipingpu dam holds 315 million tonnes of water and lies just 550 yards from the fault line, and three miles from the epicenter, of the Sichuan earthquake. Now scientists in China and the United States believe the weight of water, and the effect of it penetrating into the rock, could have affected the pressure on the fault line underneath, possibly unleashing a chain of ruptures that led to the quake.'" The Sichuan region is earthquake-prone, but has not seen anything as large as the 7.9-magnitude quake for perhaps millions of years. The Chinese government denies any connection between the dam and the earthquake and seems to be actively obstructing the access of scientists who want to investigate. The article concludes, "There is a history of earthquakes triggered by dams, including several caused by the construction of the Hoover Dam in the US, but none of such a magnitude."

193 comments

  1. In Communist China... by Jizzbug · · Score: 0, Funny

    ...earthquakes KILL you!

    --

    -=/\- Jizzbug -/\=-
  2. I am sick of it... by Kjuib · · Score: 5, Funny

    Those dam quakes always screwing everything up!

    --
    - Your stupidity got you into this mess, why can't it get you out? -Will Rogers
    1. Re:I am sick of it... by JCSoRocks · · Score: 2, Funny

      dam you! that's what I was going to say!

      --
      You are using English. Please learn the difference between loose and lose; they're, there, and their; your and you're.
    2. Re:I am sick of it... by the_denman · · Score: 1

      dam it can't we all just get along?

    3. Re:I am sick of it... by masshuu · · Score: 0

      NO U in communist china, the dam rules YOU!!

      --
      O.o
    4. Re:I am sick of it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      Frankly my dear, I don't give a dam.

    5. Re:I am sick of it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Uhhh... Amish aren't members of the Society of Friends nor do tend to build dams.

      Immolate yourself.

    6. Re:I am sick of it... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      +1 Fail

  3. It would have likely occurred anyway by EmbeddedJanitor · · Score: 5, Interesting
    The dam might have just brought the event forward a year or two. Fault lines are natural stress relief areas anyway.

    As with all things geological, there are a lot of unknown variables, hence the "could", "might" and other diluting terms.

    --
    Engineering is the art of compromise.
    1. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Gat0r30y · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I suspect that when as much energy as was released in that particular quake gets released, it was gonna get out one way or another. But building the dam where they did couldn't have helped.

      --
      Prediction: The real iPhone killer is going to be sex robots from Japan. Think about it.
    2. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by SoupGuru · · Score: 4, Funny

      Yeah, I have a hard time believing a couple million pounds of water has much impact on the geologic energies stored up along the fault.

      I'll bet what actually happened is that all the Chinese jumped at the same time.... that would definitely do it.

      --
      What doesn't kill you only delays the inevitable
    3. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by corsec67 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The dam might have just brought the event forward a year or two.

      Or made it much more intense. Maybe without the dam and lake instead of one large earthquake it would have been a series of smaller earthquakes.

      Adding a large weight almost on top of a fault is definitely going to influence it, flexing the Earth and altering the stresses in the fault.

      --
      If I have nothing to hide, don't search me
    4. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by jd · · Score: 5, Funny

      Given the current value of the pound, a few million would barely buy you enough to have an impact on a hydrophobe.

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    5. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Brigadier · · Score: 3, Interesting

      true, yes the damn may have caused the earthquake, but the proper way to look at it is the earthquake brought the geology back to a neutral point. so technically they should be in a good place.

      plus the fact the damn did not fail, says it was built properly.

    6. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      "The dam might have just brought the event forward a year or two."

      Or decades, or centuries. It's hard to be sure yet. As the article mentions, there is ample precedent for earthquakes being triggered by the weight of the water behind dams and increase in pore fluid pressure, both in seismically active and relatively inactive areas. If you want to find papers, look for the term "reservoir-induced seismicity". In the high activity case, yeah, maybe it didn't make much difference, because the area could have frequent earthquakes anyway, but in the latter case (less active area) it can make a big difference versus the natural earthquake pattern. Having major earthquakes where they didn't happen before (in human memory) is pretty inconvenient.

      Because the earthquake did happen in a fairly seismically active part of China, people should be cautious about interpreting too much into its location near a dam. For an earthquake that big the stress must have built up over a long period of time -- far longer than the dam has been around. It couldn't have been the sole cause. It is still a legitimate question that deserves further study.

      This paper [PDF] gives a good description of the physics and evidence behind the process with an example from the Montecello reservoir [PDF] in South Carolina.

      This paper, which unfortunately requires a subscription to read, talks specifically about reservoir-induced seismicity in China, especially in regards to the Three Gorges Dam project. It dates from 1998.

    7. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Squeeonline · · Score: 0

      It could also have made the delayed event not so bad as it released some of the pressure early. If it had built up as it was supposed to, the destruction would have been much worse and with it, the death toll.

    8. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by dov_0 · · Score: 1

      This IMHO is very true, but the severity of the quake was possibly much higher due to a sudden and full release of fault line tension instead of several lesser releases over time.

      --
      sudo mount --milk --sugar /cup/tea /mouth /etc/init.d/relax start
    9. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by fugue · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It could indeed have helped. There was a proposal a few years ago to inject water into faults, the idea being that this would lubricate the faults and trigger quakes sooner. That, of course, means more smaller quakes, rather than fewer really big ones.

      Probably never came to anything due to liability concerns. Letting nature kill a few thousand is better than a human doing something that kills one who has a good lawyer. Woot. Unless it's burning fossil fuels, I suppose... never mind...

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    10. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Fluffeh · · Score: 5, Interesting

      but the proper way to look at it is the earthquake brought the geology back to a neutral point

      Why on earth would you say that? Earthquakes don't bring geology to neutral points. They happen when the earth gets past critical point.

      I can't think of a totally slashdot car analogy, but here is a good analogy of earthquake causes and how it works geologically that at least includes a car.

      Think of a piece of bungee cord 10 meters in length. You tie one part to the tow-ball of a car, and hold the middle of the cord. This means there is five meters of slack cord past the point where you are holding. Now, the car very very slowly starts to drive away from you, and the tension in the cord slowly grows. You holding onto the cord with all your might represents the pressures on the fault line. Sooner or later however, the pull on the cord will be too much, and it will slip in your hand. Now, you don't totally let go however. It might slip an inch or two, just barely enough so that the force of your hand holding it once again overcomes the force of the pull in the cord - but there is still a lot of tension in the cord. When the car moves away far enough again, there will be another slip of a small distance again and again.

      This is how fault lines work. When there is a quake, it doesn't go back to a neutral point. It goes back to a point which is lower than the critical point that caused the earthquake.

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    11. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The dam might have just brought the event forward a year or two or a million. And it may have increased the magnitude.

    12. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Toonol · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure the GP post merited your correction, which ended up saying (this is a paraphrase): "It doesn't return to a neutral point, just closer to a neutral point."

    13. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Brigadier · · Score: 1

      we're essentially saying the same thing ie earthquakes release tension in the system. In this case the damn may have been a catalyst. In one sense it may have allowed the tension to be released as opposed to continuing to build up and have a catastrophic earthquake 100 years from now.

      If I understand correctly you are better of with many small earthquakes, as opposed to one huge one.

    14. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by adolf · · Score: 4, Insightful

      +5?

      Geez. For that matter, as long as we're speculating, it could have made the quake much less intense.

      Remember, kids: Just because you've changed something, doesn't mean that you've always made something else worse.

    15. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You would need a lot more than "several" lesser releases. The Richter scale is logarithmic.
      It would take approximately 1,000,000 magnitude 4 quakes (or 31,250 magnitude 5 quakes) to equal the energy released by a magnitude 7.9 quake.

    16. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by amRadioHed · · Score: 1

      Possibly, but as has been said it's equally possible that it made the inevitable quick weaker by causing a full release now instead of a full release 10 years from now.

      Tectonics are complicated, the correct answer is we don't know and probably never will know if the dam made things better or worse.

      --
      We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
    17. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      LOL, except common sense basic physics has taught all of us that if you put a shit ton of pressure on something, it's likely to break.

      This concept is far more plausable than you trying to refute it the other way. I don't have to put a fucking 20 ton bolder on top of my car to speculate it'll crush it, while you'd simply claim it *COULD* make the car expand instead! Because no one actually studied it! RTFS, it's already been stated this phenomenon has been recorded and researched in other areas making the speculation a pretty good hypothesis.

      True? No one ones, but there's certainly no support that it dampened the impact.

    18. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by jamesh · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      Letting nature kill a few thousand is better than a human doing something that kills one who has a good lawyer.

      Dead men don't sue. The family of the deceased might, but the best you'll get is a wrongful death.

      A worse case scenario is that during one of these quakes someone spills hot coffee into their lap. I wouldn't want to be on the other end of _that_ lawsuit!

    19. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by inKubus · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Interesting you should mention fossil fuels as there's a strong correlation between earthquakes and oil extraction (and other mining activities)..

      --
      Cool! Amazing Toys.
    20. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      "Geez. For that matter, as long as we're speculating, it could have made the quake much less intense."

      It "could have" but it didn't, the speculation is about the dam's role in a particular earthquake that was OBSERVED to be more intense than normal.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    21. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Suggest you better research the coffee spill incident. Car wasn't moving, complaints about temp filed more than once, much hotter than surrounding area restaurants, woman required skin grafts to repair damage and only sued for cost of medical bills after McD's blew her off. Lots of details glossed over concerning that incident but considering just how hot it was and the damage it did I don't think awarding ONE day's worth of coffee sales was that bad of a restitution... and that was later overturned.

      There are certainly shitty lawsuits but THAT one was pretty deserved I think and a poor example despite your trying to be funny about it.

    22. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by jandrese · · Score: 1

      More intense than a 7.9? That's edging up into the cataclysm range.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    23. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why not try to inject oil?;-)

      Or better yet, Botox. That will take out the wrinkles.

    24. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Like putting too much air in a balloon!

    25. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    26. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by dov_0 · · Score: 1

      Tectonics are complicated, the correct answer is we don't know and probably never will know if the dam made things better or worse.

      This is very true. We can only collect the data and try to avoid deaths in the future.

      --
      sudo mount --milk --sugar /cup/tea /mouth /etc/init.d/relax start
    27. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How about tens of billions of pounds?

      Do some math kiddo. That much weight effects all kinds of things.

      Also, murphy's law.

    28. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by mysidia · · Score: 1

      The stress could have been relieved over a longer period of time without a big earthquake.

      I take Chinese government obstructing scientists from investigating as prima facie indication they probably caused it, or at least they have very good reason to think they did.

    29. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by RodgerDodger · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It could also have resulted in the stress being accumulated faster than the normal release mechanisms could offset. The FA suggests that the stress was roughly "25 times the normal tectonic movement for a year" - so instead of having a dozen or so non-damaging quakes every couple of years, they got one big one.

      Who knows? Too many variables...

      --
      "Software is too expensive to build cheaply"
    30. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by amRadioHed · · Score: 1

      Right. We shouldn't blame the Chinese government for building the dam, instead we should blame them for not building proper schools that can survive potential earthquakes in that region.

      --
      We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
    31. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Asic+Eng · · Score: 1

      "liability concerns" ... this is in China... I think if they have a single victim of some state organized action and encounter a good lawyer in that context, they resolve this by beatings or executions. Remember this is a country which moves over a million people in order to build a dam somewhere: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam#Relocation_of_local_residents

    32. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The waste water injection that they did at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal in Colorado is a well known example (several decades old though). See here: http://www.nyx.net/~dcypser/induceq/iis.html

    33. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Hal_Porter · · Score: 2, Funny

      Slashdot: some may call it pedantry, we call it rigour.

      --
      echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
    34. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Hal_Porter · · Score: 5, Informative

      Actually they have a much more elegant way of resolving things like this

      http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2009/02/03/2003435140

      A Chinese dissident who was arrested after campaigning for the parents of children killed in the Sichuan earthquake will stand trial on state secret charges, his wife and lawyer said.

      The abrupt announcement that Huang Qi , 45, would be tried came nearly eight months after he was detained as authorities silenced criticism about fragile school buildings that collapsed on children in the May 12 quake.

      "This morning I received a phone call from the court ... to ask me to tell Huang Qi's lawyers that he will be put on trial on Tuesday [today] for illegal possession of state secrets," Huang's wife Zeng Li told reporters by phone yesterday.

      Later, Huang's lawyer Mo Shaoping said that the district court in Chengdu, capital of Sichuan Province, had agreed to push back the trial date after attorneys protested they had not been given enough time to prepare.

      "The court must warn the defense side three days before," he said, adding that he did not know when the trial would begin.

      Huang was detained in Chengdu on June 10 â" about a month after the 8.0-magnitude earthquake left more than 87,000 people dead or missing.

      Huang, a long-time rights activist who used the Internet to publicize his causes, had started to campaign for parents whose children were killed when their schools collapsed in the quake.

      About 7,000 schools were destroyed, often as nearby buildings stood firm, and relatives of the dead children initially spoke out loudly against the graft they believed led to shoddy construction.

      "Up to now, we still have not been able to see the [specific] charges" against Huang, Mo said.

      Zeng said Huang's arrest was a result of his work in the earthquake zone.

      "This is because he went to the disaster area a couple of times. He reported on the shoddy schools and reported about the appeals of the parents of the students. So he was arrested and charged with possessing state secrets," she said.

      The ill-defined charge is often used to clamp down on dissent and send activists to prison.

      --
      echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
    35. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Lord+Bitman · · Score: 1

      Most people sip things to test the temperature until it's cooled to the desired level before dumping it on themselves.

      And the gp post made no reference to any of the points you dispute.

      --
      -- 'The' Lord and Master Bitman On High, Master Of All
    36. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by SpaceMika · · Score: 1

      Exactly! It's in the key words: "cause" is the underlaying geology/structures/faults/etc that made it possible for this chunk to fail, "trigger" is why it happened at this particular time. If a trigger didn't happen (the dam wasn't built), then something else would act as a trigger later. Yes, the exact nature of the outcome would be different due to the intensity & distribution of the triggering event and other complex interactions blah blah blah, but it still would've been an earthquake. One of the big landslide bloggers posted an informal response to the academic article the news stories are based on. I thought his point about an artificially-triggered earthquake having liability consequences was interesting. I don't know the stats on death & damage for this event, but it'd certainly be enough to bankrupt anyone who was found fully or partially responsible for the disasters. I can see the usual suspects of conspiracy-theorists calling foul if the dam-triggering-earthquake theory is rejected by other scientists. After all, it wouldn't have anything to do with evaluating theories based on observations; the scientists would be protecting the geological engineers/regional planners/etc from bankruptcy, right? ;)

    37. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      That, of course, means more smaller quakes, rather than fewer really big ones.

      The effect is negligible. The Richter scale is logarithmic. On a geological tour of the Hollister, California area, which is in a slip zone on the San Andreas fault, the tour guide, a geology prof at Foothill College, explained that minor quakes on a fault don't release enough total energy to make any appreciable difference in the ultimate magnitude or timing of a big one in the same area.

      In Hollister, sidewalks built crosswise to the fault can, within a few years, show right lateral displacements of a foot or more due to the constant creep of the fault in that region. There is an Almaden winery formerly located on a similar slip zone north of San Francisco. Since the building was gradually coming apart because it straddled the fault and they feared a collapse, they relocated south to Hollister. Unfortunately they again located directly on the fault. You can see the same kind of displacement if you sight along the long side walls of the winery. The USGS now has a nice place out of the weather to keep their instrumentation -- it's located inside the building on both sides of the fault.

    38. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by pipatron · · Score: 1

      You mean that you know how powerful the quake would have been without the water? Why didn't you warn anyone?

      --
      c++; /* this makes c bigger but returns the old value */
    39. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I thought geology was rock-solid science!

    40. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

      They don't want to let you know, they have been testing nuclear armaments underground for some time now, and the last one was a killer. Sorry for the pun.

    41. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      true, yes the damn may have caused the earthquake,

      While used to misspell "damn" when being profane, there you were misspelling "dam" when referring to something that holds water!

    42. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      I'll bet what actually happened is that all the Chinese jumped at the same time.... that would definitely do it.

      Well, there may be 1.4 billion Chinese but there's 300 million obese Americans on this side of the planet. If we all jump at the same time those commie bastards won't stand a chance ;)

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    43. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Erikderzweite · · Score: 1

      At the end of the day it is still about a woman who spilled her own coffee and has sued McD for that. But I am sure that similar arguments you have provided had helped her lawyers to win the process.
      But it's all OK now, you have "Hot" and "Cold" labels on coffee and ice cream accordingly. How touching... Tell you what -- if I'd need a nanny, I would hire one.

    44. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ok, I wish I had mod points... that was a very good analogy.

    45. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      IIRC she took the lid off put the full cup between her legs where she stirred in her sugar and cream causing the spill?

      I don't know about you but I try very hard to not get anything hot near my boys, specially in a flimsy foam cup.

      the lawsuit itself was justified but I think it was gouging a bit.

    46. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      LOL, except common sense basic physics has taught all of us that if you put a shit ton of pressure on something, it's likely to break.

      The question in this subthread isn't whether it has broken something, but whether the earthquake cause by breakage due to normal continental drift, which probably would have happened later anyway, would have caused a stronger or weaker earthquake.

      Given that the longer the earthquake is delayed, the stronger the internal forces, it's quite plausible that causing the earthquake now might have caused it to be less strong then when it had naturally occured later. Note that the strength of the earthquake is basically determined by the internal forces in the earth; the force of the water by itself surely wouldn't have been strong enough to create an earthquake of that magnitude.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    47. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      Possibly the damn dam caused damage!

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    48. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I liked the joke, but have to nit-pick at the early part of it anyway.

      It wasn't a couple million pounds of water, it was more in the neighborhood of 5 trillion pounds of water.

    49. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Abcd1234 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Car wasn't moving,

      She was a klutz. That's McDonald's fault?

      complaints about temp filed more than once,

      So? Hot coffee is *hot*. If you don't like how hot their coffee is, *don't buy it*.

      woman required skin grafts to repair damage

      And if she hadn't put the cup between her legs with the *lid off*, it never would've happened. Meanwhile, the grafts were required specifically because she spilled the coffee between her legs, while in the car, leaving her to sit in it. Is that McDonald's fault? I think not.

      only sued for cost of medical bills after McD's blew her off.

      As they should've. She spilled *hot coffee* on herself. Coffee she willingly purchased and *knew* was hot. And it's McDonald's fault it was hot and she spilled it on herself? I can't think of a more retarded lawsuit.

      Lots of details glossed over concerning that incident but considering just how hot it was and the damage it did I don't think awarding ONE day's worth of coffee sales was that bad of a restitution

      On the face of it, no. But it sets a precedent that they were prefer not to set. After that, if someone scalds their mouth on hot cheese, should McDonald's hand out coupons for a free burger? They did it for the coffee lady...

      There are certainly shitty lawsuits but THAT one was pretty deserved I think

      And I think not. She bought coffee she *knew* was hot. She then took off the fucking lid. And then *put it between her legs*. How is that anyone's fault but hers?

      Sorry, bub. If I cut my foot off with a chainsaw I don't sue the chainsaw manufacturer. This is no different. She was handed a hot coffee that was advertised as such, that she *knew* was hot, and then did something really fucking stupid with it. It's her own damn fault, and the idea that McD's owed her millions because of her stupidity is *disgusting*.

    50. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by ZFox · · Score: 1

      complaints about temp filed more than once

      700 complaints were filed over the course of a decade. Okay fine, but when you serve BILLIONS of cups of coffee within that same timeframe that number dwarfs in comparison. This comes to about 1 complaint in every 24 MILLION cups served. Hell, I bet a coffee drinker with no hands would have better odds of not burning themselves than this idiot woman, Stella Liebeck.

    51. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by dwater · · Score: 1

      they use metric there, so it doesn't apply...well, everywhere uses metric now, apart from the US it seems.

      --
      Max.
    52. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by dwater · · Score: 1

      The place they test nuclear weapons isn't a million miles away...

      --
      Max.
    53. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by linzeal · · Score: 1

      Do you even remember how hot coffee was before the lawsuit happened? We used to take hot coffee from McDonalds in Duluth MN in the early 90's and pour it on the windshield with 2 inches of ice and it would clear the windshield. We tried that this winter in Portland with less ice than that and it did not even get half the windshield clear. I am still glad the lawsuit happened though coffee should not be served near boiling to people who are in a car.

    54. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      Then *don't drink it in the fucking car*. Jesus Christ! I've heard just as many complaints saying that coffee is served far too cold, now, and the it's best consumed piping hot. What makes you right and them wrong? Other than you're trying to protect people from themselves and their own stupidity?

    55. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by IndustrialComplex · · Score: 1

      Jesus Christ! I've heard just as many complaints saying that coffee is served far too cold, now, and the it's best consumed piping hot.

      Unless you actually are Jesus Christ, consuming coffee of that temperature would have landed you in the emergency room at best.

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    56. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      Funny, people had been drinking coffee at that temperature for many years before Mrs. Klutz burned herself. I think maybe you just need to learn how to drink your coffee properly.

    57. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Have you read the lawsuit? The main point was the coffee was *way* hotter than is typical. If you spill hot coffee on your legs normally, you don't need skin grafts. Not all values of "hot" are the same: If every restaurant served coffee at this temperature we'd see horrible accidents every day.

      Furthermore, it's easy to imagine ways to spill coffee in a car that are no one's fault. A temperature that causes serious damage in a spill is clearly inappropriate for a drive-through.

      The second point of the suit is that the company had been warned but decided that it was worth paying the occasional small damages. That's the whole point of punitive damages: to get the company's attention.

      And you're exactly on target with the idea of precedent. If McDonald's serves a burger with cheese way hotter than a reasonable person would expect, hot enough to cause 3rd-degree burns, why yes, they *should* pay up.

    58. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by linzeal · · Score: 1

      No one drank coffee that hot, it would of sloughed off your tongue and you would of swallowed it. You could not even sip coffee that hot it would of blistered your lips. Coffee was ostensibly served that hot because people wanted hot coffee when they arrived at work after their commute, we have magical things called microwave things now.

    59. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      No one drank coffee that hot, it would of sloughed off your tongue and you would of swallowed it. You could not even sip coffee that hot it would of blistered your lips.

      Ah, I see, you haven't learn the magic of blowing on your coffee. See, it makes the surface of the coffee cooler and safe to drink.

      Look, I drink all my tea immediately after boiling it. We're talking 95C (200F-ish). Do I burn my mouth occasionally? Yup. But I certainly don't blister my lips. That claim of yours is flat out silly. Hell, the National Coffee Association recommends coffee be brewed between 195-200F and maintained at 180-185F (McD's coffee was brewed between 180-190F). The idea that "no one drank coffee that hot" is utterly ridiculous.

    60. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Abcd1234 · · Score: 1

      Bullshit. Go read this. *Many* other places have been sued unsuccessfully for serving coffee at similar temperatures. Hell, the fucking Coffee Association of America recommends brewing coffee between 195-200F, and serving between 180-185F (McD's was between 180-190F). The McD's case was only unique in that the stupid woman actually won.

    61. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by ultranova · · Score: 1

      You mean that you know how powerful the quake would have been without the water?

      From the summary:

      The Sichuan region is earthquake-prone, but has not seen anything as large as the 7.9-magnitude quake for perhaps millions of years.

      This kinda implies that any effect the dam may have had likely made the quake bigger, since if it made it smaller, then it must have been even bigger - and thus rarer - quake to begin with.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    62. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by fugue · · Score: 1

      (Apparently) little-known fact: coffee is brewed at water temperatures well above what human skin can stand without scalding injuries. Temperatures of around 50C injure us very quickly. Coffee is brewed at around 85C--95C, and is best consumed shortly after brewing, lest it lose flavour. Therefore, if you buy a coffee, you know for sure that it was recently hot enough to scald you, and it may still be so. The wise will take the necessary precautions. The foolish will become extremely wealthy.

      Of course, Americans are born into a bit of a nanny state. Furthermore, there is a tendency here for parents to be somewhat overzealous about protecting their children from any possibility of even minor injury, and the consequences are obvious: Americans are raised to be babies, always looking to blame someone else when they make a stupid mistake, because they were never given responsibility to make their own decisions and discover the consequences and learn.

      This goes back to one of the biggest differences that I have found between Americans and other peoples: on average Americans are far more concerned with "rights" and far less concerned with "responsibilities" than any other culture I know.

      --
      "The biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place."
    63. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Paranatural · · Score: 1

      She didn't dump it on herself. It melted the cup.

    64. Re:It would have likely occurred anyway by Lord+Bitman · · Score: 1

      pics or it didn't happen. I've heard these claims of "But it was too hot to immediately drink!" before and researched it, and I've never seen anything claiming it "melted the cup". That would be a McDonalds coffee cup, by the way. Those tend to be made of paper.

      I've never seen coffee, tea, or cocoa brewed which I would consider fit for immediate consumption. Everyone else in the world realizes that it comes out "hot. Too hot to drink". And when they accidentally spill it on themselves, and require hospitalization because of it, they think "ouch. That really was too hot to drink!". Not, "ouch. That really was too hot to drink, how dare it be sold to me!"

      I stick ice in my tea, because I'm a pussy.

      --
      -- 'The' Lord and Master Bitman On High, Master Of All
  4. Tragic, maybe? by the_humeister · · Score: 1, Redundant

    Well, it's either have the earthquake now or have it later. Take your pick.

    1. Re:Tragic, maybe? by bennomatic · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Or maybe it could have been, "Have it smaller." I wonder if we'll ever know.

      --
      The CB App. What's your 20?
    2. Re:Tragic, maybe? by Kamokazi · · Score: 0

      I choose later. Preferrably after I'm dead.

      --
      As our way of thanking you for your positive contributions to Slashdot, you are eligible to disable Slashdot 2.0.
    3. Re:Tragic, maybe? by Jurily · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I choose later. Preferrably after I'm dead.

      Tell that to your grandchildren.

    4. Re:Tragic, maybe? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      The lil' sob's probably won't hear anyway, what with their loud music, and their hippin an their hoppin, and their bippin and their boppin.

      GET OFF MY LAWN!

    5. Re:Tragic, maybe? by Sleepy · · Score: 1

      So really you think it's better to have one massive earthquake and get it out of the way, vs. many smaller ones?

    6. Re:Tragic, maybe? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      *begins writing a letter to grandchildren*

      Dear grandchildren, you will receive this letter when I have passed on. One word of warning: we chose to have an earthquake later instead of when we were alive, so...yeah. Also why don't you write me more often?

      Now get off my lawn!

    7. Re:Tragic, maybe? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I wonder if we'll ever know.

      Probably not, with the Chinese government being so sensitive about it.

    8. Re:Tragic, maybe? by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 3, Funny

      Won't be able to. Remember? Dead.

    9. Re:Tragic, maybe? by camg188 · · Score: 1

      For the past 30 years, geologists have been experimenting with injection of water on fault lines to induce smaller, more frequent earthquakes rather than letting the pressure build up for less frequent, more violent ones.

    10. Re:Tragic, maybe? by amRadioHed · · Score: 1

      False dichotomy. It's better to have many small ones, it's worse to have one large one later.

      --
      We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
    11. Re:Tragic, maybe? by Kamokazi · · Score: 1

      I'm posting on Slashdot, you think I could find someone desparate enough to marry me even if I wanted to subject myself to that hell?

      --
      As our way of thanking you for your positive contributions to Slashdot, you are eligible to disable Slashdot 2.0.
    12. Re:Tragic, maybe? by daveime · · Score: 1

      Your girlfriend just told you that so you wouldn't feel inadequate.

    13. Re:Tragic, maybe? by mspohr · · Score: 1

      I'll choose 'later'.

      --
      I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
  5. I feel a bad movie based on this where need to blo by Joe+The+Dragon · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I feel a bad movie based on this where need to blow up dam to stop a super quake from happening is coming.

  6. Prediction by philspear · · Score: 5, Funny

    Chinese officials will conclude that the scientific findings are acurrate and convincing, will acknowledge that the dam did cause the quake, will apologize sincerely, and resign in disgrace. The replacements will then close down the dam, making sure to dismantle it in an ecologically sensible way, doing the least disruption to the surrounding communities as well, and every victim of the quake will be compensated accordingly. You know, much as it would happen here.

    You really have to love government humility and responsibility.

    1. Re:Prediction by peragrin · · Score: 4, Interesting

      not to dodge your sarcasm, but the scientific findings are vague enough to blame the entire quake on Bush bombing people in iraq.

      you never know what that one last MOAB will really do what with the butterfly effect and everything.

      also if a quake hasn't happened in a million years then it just might be under a lot of stress, that doesn't easily go away.

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    2. Re:Prediction by philspear · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Oh yeah, I was of course sidestepping the issue of "Is the finding ACTUALLY valid." Somewhat like what the chinese government will do, only they probably won't do it with sarcasm. It'd be refreshing if they did though.

    3. Re:Prediction by stephanruby · · Score: 4, Funny

      Thanks a lot man! because of your comment, I won't be able to read slashdot the next time I'm over there.

    4. Re:Prediction by Malc · · Score: 5, Informative

      Hessler's River Town: Two Years on the Yangtze is a great account of an American journalist living in China in an area to be flooded by the Three Gorges Dam. He quite clearly articulates how the people of China passively accept things like this. It's a great read, especially if you've even been to the country. Quite often though, the people think their government is correct and efficient, and that you have to accept some inconvenience for a better future for all. As always, the government is a symptom of the people, and vice-versa.

    5. Re:Prediction by peragrin · · Score: 1

      heck I am waiting for the USA government to admit they screwed up once, then hell really will be frozen over.

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    6. Re:Prediction by philspear · · Score: 3, Funny

      What are you talking about? That post was 100% not sarcastic! Higher praise for the chinese government has never been seen on slashdot!

    7. Re:Prediction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Back in the 40s and 50s Americans also used to just sigh and call it the "Price of progress." There used to be widespread acceptance of infrastructure development. Attitudes started changing in the 60's and 70's. It's a lot easier to be against infrastructure development when you live in a nation with well developed infrastructure.

    8. Re:Prediction by theophilosophilus · · Score: 1

      You know, much as it would happen here.

      You really have to love government humility and responsibility.

      Well ... Blowout Taking down a dam used to require an act of Congress-or terror. Now it's just good business. No comment - just relevant.

      --
      Why have 1 person driving a backhoe when you could employ 20 with shovels?
    9. Re:Prediction by Toonol · · Score: 1

      Why dismantle the dam? The earthquake has already happened, presumably dissipating the additional stress caused by it's presence.

      Removing the dam would probably destabilize the geology, at this point.

    10. Re:Prediction by amRadioHed · · Score: 1

      You forgot the part about draining the dam causing another massive earthquake. Oops.

      --
      We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
    11. Re:Prediction by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 4, Funny

      heck I am waiting for the USA government to admit they screwed up once, then hell really will be frozen over.

      Oh, please! The US government admits it screwed up regularly. Pretty much every time an new President is elected, he admits his predecessor screwed up.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    12. Re:Prediction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And then we've find out that behind the dam was the source of all of that melamine rather than water

    13. Re:Prediction by Malc · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Yes, that's so true. The changes that China has gone through in the last 100 years are staggering. Edgar Snow's Red Star Over China gives a fantastic account of what China was like during the Communist Revolution. It brought them forward a millennia in a few years, spreading education, and raising standards for 100 of millions of poor Chinese peasants. But that still left China far behind what we consider a well developed country. Of course, the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution didn't really help. Then again in the last ten or fifteen years, it's almost as if China has come forward another millennia, where cities like Shanghai are fairly easy to live in as Westerner. The people there are now beginning to resist change for this reason. Want to build a new Maglev line to Hangzhou or high speed rail link to Beijing? The people organised together and forced the government to re-route it via somebody else's neighbourhood. Out in the country though, people still put up with being relocated because their lives haven't changed as fast and are some way behind.

    14. Re:Prediction by FirstNoel · · Score: 1

      Obama just said, "I screwed up." I hear that Hell is expecting it first blizzard shortly.

      --
      "Hmm. I am to metaphor cheese as metaphor cheese is to transitive verb crackers!"
  7. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Orne · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This is the country that strictly enforces a one-child-per-family law, and you think the Chinese government actually wants more people to take care of?

  8. No surprise by Locke2005 · · Score: 4, Informative

    Haven't we known for 40 years now that injecting water into a fault can trigger a quake?

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    1. Re:No surprise by kimvette · · Score: 1
      --
      The Christian Right is Neither (Christian nor right). See: Matthew 23, Matthew 25, Ezekiel 16:48-50
  9. Re:I feel a bad movie based on this where need to by Chabo · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Sir Ranulph Fiennes (the famous arctic explorer, among other things) was actually kicked out of the SAS for destroying a dam using stolen explosives. You can google for more detailed accounts of the story, but here's one:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/student/career-planning/getting-job/my-first-job-explorer-sir-ranulph-fiennes-was-an-sas-officer-420601.html

    --
    Convert FLACs to a portable format with FlacSquisher
  10. the government is blameless by circletimessquare · · Score: 4, Interesting

    let's say they know dams cause earthquakes. ok, so there will be some minor earthquakes. but 7.9? no one is going to predict anything that large

    still, let's assume the dam is still the trigger for the 7.9 earthquake. emphasis on trigger. its going to happen someday anyway

    if they never built the dam, we'd be talking about the 7.9 or 8.3 sichuan earthquake of 2031 or 2102

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
  11. Re:quid pro quo by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 0

    Dear Member of Common Sense Brigade,

    "When I fuck with nature, nature fucks with some poor bastard who'll never be able to touch me."

    Sincerely, World Governments and Corporations

  12. How do they know it's never happened before? by Hans+Lehmann · · Score: 4, Interesting
    The Sichuan region is earthquake-prone, but has not seen anything as large as the 7.9-magnitude quake for perhaps millions of years

    Would a 7.9 quake, although large by earthquake standards, even leave evidence that lasted more than, say, 1000 years? You might be able to tell if you took a cross section of the entire fault line, I suppose, but not all fault lines are known. A L.A. city geologist found a previously unknown (but not currently active) fault under the house of a friend of mine when he was having some drainage work done; new ones are discovered all the time.

    --
    09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
    1. Re:How do they know it's never happened before? by khallow · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Yes, it would. Off the top of my head, I can think of two classic examples in the US easily visible to regular people, the San Andreas fault and the thrust fault that forms the steep eastern face of the Grand Tetons. In each case, it's easy to figure out how much the fault has moved each time an earthquake occurs. For example, the San Andreas fault slides sideways during an earthquake and displaces streams and geographical features. I believe that they can trace to some degree the earthquake record for the past few thousand years. Similarly, the face of the Grand Teton mountains lifts after each major quake, exposing a fresh patch of earth and rock. I dimly recall they have dated these giving an estimate of a magnitude 7 earthquake every 400-700 years.

      My belief is that if the geological record for earthquakes were studied properly, we would find that a magnitude 7.9 earthquake is indeed typical for that particular fault (much less the area). It's quite possible that the dam was the trigger for the quake, but it's not so likely that it amplified the energy release of the quake. If it did, however, I would guess wildly that the mechanism would be reduced energy loss to friction.

    2. Re:How do they know it's never happened before? by FlyingSquidStudios · · Score: 1

      Zhang Heng invented an earthquake detector in China in 132 AD, so yes. There is Chinese earthquake data going back well over 1000 years.

    3. Re:How do they know it's never happened before? by amRadioHed · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That earthquake detector was only for determining the direction of the quake, it could not measure the strength. And has it ever been determine if it even worked properly? I'm sure it was fine at detecting shaking that it had been shaked, but it seems to me that the direction wouldn't be very reliable.

      --
      We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
    4. Re:How do they know it's never happened before? by phosphorylate+this · · Score: 1

      It's China, do we not have historical coverage of the last 3000+ years?

    5. Re:How do they know it's never happened before? by khallow · · Score: 1

      They aren't going to tell you the magnitude of quakes in the area. It's possible that the records were made and lost. And it's possible that a big quake happened and nobody was on the ground to record how bad it was. There have been times in the past when Sichuan has apparently been depopulated by war or worse. For example, Sichuan is alleged to be the site of a genocide that would be comparable to the worst of the ones that happened in the 20th Century. Nobody really knows if it's true or just some scribes with a gift for exaggeration. But supposedly the guy doing it targeted the educated first and he was very thorough. So those records might have been destroyed in the process.

      I guess what I'm saying here is that the geological record, which another poster has pointed out is much harder to read than I though, isn't as easy to lose as the historical record.

  13. Dear nutjobs by EmbeddedJanitor · · Score: 1
    Let me spell it out for **you**.

    When you build on a fault line, nature is going to give you a big fucking shake sometime.

    Building a dam nearby might bring the event forward a bit, but it's going to happen anyway.

    --
    Engineering is the art of compromise.
  14. Nothing too see here... by Muckluck · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Just move along...

    --


    --I like turtles...
    1. Re:Nothing too see here... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Thanks for your relevant and insightful comment, pause, not. -Borat, 2005

  15. not cost-effective by NonUniqueNickname · · Score: 1

    Triggering a quake by building such a huge dam is not cost-effective. The Chinese could have gotten the same quake for less money by getting everyone to climb up on a chair and jump at the same time.

  16. Re:quid pro quo by Jurily · · Score: 5, Funny

    Don't worry, I'll find a way.

    Sincerely, Nature

  17. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Locke2005 · · Score: 5, Insightful
    That effect was disproportionate on the poor.

    Every natural disaster has a disproportionate effect on the poor! That's just one of the many, many reasons why it sucks to be poor!

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
  18. chain of ruptures... by alxkit · · Score: 0
  19. What about Three Gorges Dam? by relikx · · Score: 1

    That monumental earth-shattering project is much larger in scope. It is 315 miles from the Sichuan earthquake's epicenter but in any case, if this phenomenon is true perhaps it may not have been related to this earthquake but will wreak havoc one day. Of course, they can just keep denying anything and not worry about the dam impact.

  20. Dam survived. by fishbowl · · Score: 1

    The real interest here is that the dam survived the quake, right?

    --
    -fb Everything not expressly forbidden is now mandatory.
  21. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Aellus · · Score: 1

    You do realize that a dam is a source of clean energy, right? Ever heard of hydro-electric power? Turbines?

  22. Just Wait by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    If this is true, then just wait until the Three Gorges begins to top off (it has been filling for years now and has some time to go.)

    1. Re:Just Wait by moosesocks · · Score: 1

      Well, that all depends -- is it on top of a fault line?

      --
      -- If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done? - Uli's moose
  23. Re:Social justice requires desalination by stephanruby · · Score: 5, Informative

    This earthquake killed a lot of people and ruined the lives of countless others. That effect was disproportionate on the poor.

    This earthquake killed less than 100,000 people.

    In 1931, the flooding of a different river (the Yellow river) killed 3.7 millions. And thirty years before that, another flood in China killed 1 million people.

    Flooding kills poor people. Dams prevent flooding.

  24. Slow news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why did this take so long to get into mainstream media? According to a well-hidden footnote on Wikipedia it was in Science on January 16. I read about it a week ago in a German newspaper.

  25. please forgive the base humour by passiveNecro · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    hehehe zipping poo hehehe

  26. Best name ever! by mmatador22 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Hahahaha - Zipping Poo... Best name for a dam ever!

  27. Someone ought to tell the Chinese government... by Thinboy00 · · Score: 0

    No dam for you!

    --
    $ make available
  28. Re:Social justice requires desalination by fotbr · · Score: 1

    Flooding kills poor people.

    Most natural disasters affect the poor more than any others. The more wealthy usually have either better living conditions that can survive the event, or the means to leave the area. Or both.

    Like you said -- dams prevent flooding (until they fail). Which just means the poor escape one disaster and replace it with another. It still sucks to be poor. Always has, always will.

  29. Re:Social justice requires desalination by pimpimpim · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Katrina, for example. Still wondering if help wouldn't have been more efficient and fast if the people there were rich, influential. Top Gear went there a year after and it still looked like a war zone. Not as if the US doesn't have any money, there's apparently enough to bail out some high-salaried bankers, it's just that the investments are disproportionate to the poor.

    --
    molmod.com - computing tips from a molecular modeling
  30. Re:Social justice requires desalination by LWATCDR · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Sorry folks.
    They would have been better off if they hadn't elected the idiot Mayor and Governor.
    People like to blame FEMA but FEMA did they typical job. The local and state governments where criminal.
    It was the local government that failed to use the school buses to evacuate the people. Heck they even left them in the flood plane. My city has been hit by three storms. The School buses are always moved to stageing areas near shelters. The state government put police out side New Orleans to keep the people IN after the storm.
    Heck the state didn't even have shelters for all the people. Texas had to provide shelters.
    What really ticks me off is people forget about Mississippi. They took the worst hit for Katrina. They had a HUGE store surge that took out whole sections of their coast line. They had many homes whipped out but you don't see people up in arms because their state and local governments where a lot more effective.
    What is the worst part. That idiot moron of a mayor GOT REELECTED!!!!!!!!!!!

    --
    See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
  31. How is the dam? by WindBourne · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    Not sure that I would want to be located downstream from a chinese built dam.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  32. zipingpu? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Did anyone else read that as Zipping Poo Dam?

  33. Re:Social justice requires desalination by couchslug · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "This earthquake killed a lot of people and ruined the lives of countless others. That effect was disproportionate on the poor."

    Chinese poor have always been expendable. They are easily replaced, and their rulers have always understood this.

    --
    "This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
  34. Brings up the question by JustNilt · · Score: 1

    that if we reomve a dam, as many people think we should do, would that also precipitate an earthquake? After all, we'd be changing the stresses on the fault.

    Fascinating subject; I never knew before this that a dam could actually cause an earthquake. Makes sense when you think about it but I never thought about it since I've had little to do with dams aside from getting most of my power from them.

    --
    You know the thing about UDP jokes? I don't care if you get it or not.
    1. Re:Brings up the question by JustNilt · · Score: 1

      reomve

      Yeesh, the one time I don't speel (sic) check. :-\

      --
      You know the thing about UDP jokes? I don't care if you get it or not.
  35. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Toonol · · Score: 4, Insightful

    What is the worst part. That idiot moron of a mayor GOT REELECTED!!!!!!!!!!!

    And, bringing it around full circle, electing terrible leadership is a consequence of being poor and uneducated. The people re-electing the mayor bought the line that the federal government was primarily responsible for the mishandling, and probably made a Bush joke or two... not understanding what role the state and federal governments were supposed to play.

    The feds should be thanked for cleaning up the mess Louisiana got itself into.

  36. Re:Social justice requires desalination by adolf · · Score: 1

    Dams don't prevent flooding. They just move it somewhere else.

  37. NASA math at work. And yes,IAANB* by rts008 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Maybe they can get this drilling crew on the mission to save the day!

    All humour aside, most people have no clue about the energy levels and destructive power available to natural forces, just on our world. (ie:water) Even engineers can fall prey to their preconceptions at times, if they are not diligent. Water is a powerful force, in scale.

    Most people perceive the Earth as a solid/stable surface to build on(dig to 'bedrock' for the foundation, etc...), frequently forgetting Earth more resembles a poultry egg: relatively thin shell covering/encasing a liquid center...and just as fragile on scale.

    At our most terrible destructive level available technologically to humans today, we are still just 'wannabe' punks in the big picture. Actually, I would argue that communication tech is the most powerful weapon/tech we have devised to date.

    *(IAANB) I Am A NASA Brat![clarification of subject line]-just could not pass this one up. And NOT trying to pick on engineers, who have demanding job requirements, but there is a good reason to put erasers on pencils! :-)

    Sorry if this was more than you bargained for trying to make a 'funny', but you did raise a valid point! :-)

    --
    Down With Slashdot BETA!!! I've been around the corner and seen the oliphant; you can only abuse me from your perspecti
  38. Re:I feel a bad movie based on this where need to by amRadioHed · · Score: 1

    Oh yeah, only Jackie Chan and Jet Li can save us now. Sounds like Kung Fu gold.

    --
    We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
  39. Millions of years? by jamesh · · Score: 1

    has not seen anything as large as the 7.9-magnitude quake for perhaps millions of years

    Yes but records only go back for a few thousand years, when the hall of records was mysteriously destroyed somehow.

    (with apologies to the Simpsons)

  40. Re:I feel a bad movie based on this where need to by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If adding tons of water within days is enough to threaten the stability of a fault, obviously removing tons of water within minutes is the safest way to fix the problem. Yes, I can see the movie industry (which once depicted people being pursued by cold air) falling for that.

  41. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Trailer+Trash · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Dams don't prevent flooding. They just move it somewhere else.

    Right, and we know exactly where that somewhere else is (right behind the dam) and we don't build houses there anymore because it's a lake.

    Dams prevent catastrophic, uncontrolled flooding by buffering the surge in a lake and letting it out slowly. The Ohio River no longer floods because of the hundreds of artificial lakes created in its watershed, for instance.

  42. actively obstructing by Tablizer · · Score: 0, Troll

    The Chinese government denies any connection between the dam and the earthquake and seems to be actively obstructing the access of scientists who want to investigate.

    Well, it's a Wonderful thing We've never Witnessed a gov't like that in the USA. Knock on Wood.
       

    1. Re:actively obstructing by The+End+Of+Days · · Score: 1

      Get over it already, you've had eight years of self-congratulatory bitching. It's the Republican's turn now.

  43. You insensitive clod! by NotQuiteReal · · Score: 1

    I purchased some of those pounds of which you speak with USD, this past summer. It had an impact on my wallet, I assure you.

    Good day!

    --
    This issue is a bit more complicated than you think.
  44. Re:Social justice requires desalination by coyote4til7 · · Score: 0, Troll

    They had a HUGE store surge

    Store surges! Mississippi should patent that. The Feds could fund the R&D to make it scalable. Then it could be licensed to Macy's, Target, Home Depot & Co. for a percentage of the increase in sales. The Federal R&D funds could be repaid with the profits.

    --
    Well, shiver me timbers! The Grammar Nazis' left me in charge and here be this juicy morsel. I are the Pirate of unintentionally humorous abuse of words. Argg! Set sail, mateys! We be boarding Dubya next!

    --

    the clock on the wall says 4 til 7
  45. Re:Social justice requires desalination by stephanruby · · Score: 1

    Most natural disasters affect the poor more than any others. The more wealthy usually have either better living conditions that can survive the event, or the means to leave the area. Or both.

    You're right. I was replying to the parent (who's now been modded down into oblivion). I should have said "Flooding kills poor people too." The original assertion made by the parent about "the poor" is actually what made me want to respond to him in the first place. And I agree that it didn't have any relevance to his original point.

    Another couple of counter points that I forgot to make to the original parent:

    First, a nuclear plant has to be near the area it serves (since it transmission lines lose too much power over long distances) and it would have to be near water (since it's essentially a steam engine where water is turned into steam to propel its turbines), and so if you build a nuclear power plant near where the dam is (or near where the Min river is and where the population centers are), you may end up building it right on top of that major fault line where the 9.0+ earthquake occurred (which isn't too recommended by the Japanese who have just abandoned their largest nuclear power plant after they recently discovered out there was a fault line right under it)

    And last but not least, building a desalination plant in the mountains away from the sea and away from the salt water doesn't make sense. You need salt water in order to desalinate it. In the mountain, you'll probably need to mine it in order to extract the salt. And also, making water flow up a mountain over a very long distance is much harder than making it flow down that same mountain. And never mind that desalination is already prohibitively expensive for even most people without fresh water -- living near actual sea-water.

  46. Re:Social justice requires desalination by stephanruby · · Score: 1

    Dams don't prevent flooding. They just move it somewhere else.

    I think you were thinking of water levies. A water levy is essentially a Dam that's parallel to the water flow. Water levies are designed to push your problems down to your neighbors downstream, thereby amplifying exponentially the possible death toll and the destruction that's caused downstream, and also decreasing your neighbors ability to predict flooding based on historical data.

    On the other hand, a Dam (at least the Chinese Dam on the Min River that survived that earthquake) was built to intersect the river and dampen the spikes in its water flow. And even when such a Dam overflows, it still saves lives, because it delays the flooding that's about to come by giving an advanced warning. In that case, it increases predictability and the ability to save lives.

  47. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It took FEMA 5 days to get drinkable water to the super dome. I don't care what else was going on, this is unforgivable.

    If this is the best FEMA can do, they need to be disbanded and either replaced, or forgotten about.

    If FEMA can't get something as simple as water to people in need what good are they?

  48. Re:Social justice requires desalination by kimvette · · Score: 1

    It's the fault of everyone who bought and/or built a home, business,e etc. at or below sea level, and also the politicians who didn't follow the Army Corps of Engineers' recommendations for the levy. Add an inadequate levy to land below sea level and you're just inviting catastrophe.

    --
    The Christian Right is Neither (Christian nor right). See: Matthew 23, Matthew 25, Ezekiel 16:48-50
  49. Re:Social justice requires desalination by RodgerDodger · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Of course, preventing flooding of flood plains wrecks the ecology and in many cases has resulted in the severe degradation of the arable land downstream.

    A more sensible solution would be to not build towns and cities in flood plains. But it's a bit late for that.

    --
    "Software is too expensive to build cheaply"
  50. Paeleoseismology by penguinchris · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Paleoseismology as you described is actually quite difficult. In the case of the San Andreas, you can't really look at off-set streams and such. You can rarely discern more than one or two events along such offsets, and once you do, it is very difficult to determine the age of the offset. You can get the amount that it's moved, yes, but not the timing. Worse, since you don't know the timing, you don't know if the offset is from one or more events.

    The way it's done for strike-slip faults like the San Andreas is to look at a cross-section perpendicular to the fault, looking for layers of material off-set (or suddenly changing thickness, etc.) along the fault. The best way to date those layers is through carbon-14 dating of organic material, which can give you accuracy only within ~1-200 years - and that's assuming that the organic material you date is not from elsewhere, is not from 200 year old trees, etc. If an event offsets every layer from the bottom up to a certain point, you date the top layer that it cuts through to get a maximum age, and the layer that it didn't cut through is the minimum age.

    You can imagine the difficulty and ambiguous nature of this. The individual layers that you have to recognize and date are on the scale of centimeters to decimeters - I've seen some of the areas that were used, the famous one being along Pallet Creek which is along the San Andreas northeast of LA (I have a picture of it - well, it is a picture of a girl standing in front of it - here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/penguinchris/3037578910/) Here, luckily there was constant, relatively rapid deposition of material. In most places this is not the case, so any record of movement on the fault is eroded away.

    For the San Andreas, we have a partial record going back ~1500 years. There really is no reliable way to reach back further than that - the record isn't normally visible in older rock units. Looking at the larger-scale structures is interesting by itself but doesn't tell you anything about when specifically there was movement. The fault system in the Sichuan region is fairly well understood - it is a kind of combination strike-slip/thrust fault (see http://quake.mit.edu/~changli/wenchuan.html for some nice diagrams.) But I want to call BS on the idea that they have any idea how frequently major earthquakes have happened there - and even if they do, the idea that it is "perhaps millions of years" since the last one is ridiculous no matter what.

    And then, when you *do* figure out a approximate year for an earthquake, how do you determine how big it was? Again, extremely difficult! The best estimates come from comparing old written records of destruction with those from modern earthquakes - nothing scientific at all!

    What's being done extensively with the San Andreas is physics-based computer modeling - we have some idea of the force building up, and combining that with records of historical earthquakes we can make an estimate of a major earthquake every ~150 years. But even for this, the best-studied earthquake area, it's not much more than a guess.

    I don't know as much about the Teton fault (other than that it is a normal fault, not a thrust fault as you stated ;) ) but I'll comment on the idea of a "magnitude 7 earthquake every 400-700 years." These kinds of estimates are based on the very difficult work I described earlier (and I'm not sure how much has been done for the Teton fault) and whatever geologist came up with that would probably admit it is a simple guess without much to base it on. I mean, think of it - is knowing there's a large earthquake every 400-700 years really all that useful anyway?

    By the way, I assume any dating of the Teton fault would be done this way: when new patches of rock are exposed along the fault as you described, they start getting hit by cosmogenic radiation. By measuring the amount of cosmogenic radio isoto

    1. Re:Paeleoseismology by khallow · · Score: 1

      Bah, this is almost as bad as some of my posts on fission reactor technology. Didn't realize I was so far off.

      I mean, think of it - is knowing there's a large earthquake every 400-700 years really all that useful anyway?

      I always thought the answer was "yes", if you live in the location long enough. An overnight in the Grand Tetons National Park? Not worth the bother. But if you're planning to buy a house and live there for 20 years. Even at the best case, that's 3% of the estimated time between earthquakes. I gather it's been a while since the last quake too. Not as bad as automobile accidents in likelihood, but it's a house not a car. And of course, the communities and the National Park Service would need to have some sort of plans in place for when an earthquake hit. Evacuations, medical services, perhaps even what to do if there's a tsunami in Jackson Lake. (Jackson Lake appears to run along the edge of the Grand Tetons escarpment for a 10-15 mile stretch and from the peak of Mount Moran which is a bit north of Grand Teton to the lake's southwest corner when the lake is full, it's more than a 4,000 feet drop over a mile and a half.)

  51. Poor Summary and Article: Not Weight of Water by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The article and summary are misleading to the extent that they talk about the "weight of water" possibly causing the quake. The scientists involved also, almost certainly, do not suspect the weight of the water, as such, was the cause.

    The weight of water was utterly irrelevant compared to the weight of the rock beneath and around the dam and the fault. Water has a density of about 1 gram per cubic centimeter. Common crustal rock (usually) has a density in the vicinity of 2.7 grams per cubic centimeter, and there's a hell of a lot more rock than water; remember the earthquake occurred at a depth of twelve miles. The simple added weight would not be noticeable at depth.

    What may have happened, as it is the mechanism by which dams may cause earthquakes, is pooling a large amount of water in the vicinity of the fault may have changed the pore fluid pressure in the rock. The increase in pore fluid pressure would have the effect of reducing the net confining pressure on the fault, while the differential stress remained the same, allowing the fault to slip more easily.

    The easiest way to think about this is to imagine the pressure the rock had been exerting in all directions to lock the fault together -- to keep it from moving. There's some component of stress that is pushing the two sides of the fault in different directions, but the rock is being squeezed too tightly to move.

    Now when more (incompressible) water is added to the system the differential stress remains the same, but the effective pressure locking the fault in place is reduced on account of the higher water pressure in the rock's pore spaces. The shear stress may then be great enough to allow the fault to slip, causing an earthquake.

    I have no idea whether this was a factor in this particular earthquake, but it has caused earthquakes ranging from unnoticeable to more significant in other parts of the world, even in tectonically quiet regions. For example, the water level in the Aswan High Dam is supposedly correlated with minor background seismic activity.

  52. Anarki by majorme · · Score: 0

    \addbot anarki 5

  53. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    It's the fault of everyone who bought and/or built a home, business,e etc. at or below sea level,

    Hey! Leave the Dutch out of it, I say!

  54. Re:I feel a bad movie based on this where need to by TheCybernator · · Score: 1

    I feel a bad movie based on this where need to blow up dam to stop a super quake from happening is coming.

    A super-flood to stop a super-quake?

  55. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    clean nuke power

    Ha, ha. ha. Clean nuke power, clean coal, clean tooth fairy.

  56. Leading edge transient by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It could indeed have helped. There was a proposal a few years ago to inject water into faults, the idea being that this would lubricate the faults and trigger quakes sooner. That, of course, means more smaller quakes, rather than fewer really big ones.

    You do realize that first in the series of quakes thus facilitated would potentially be a really big one (unless injecting water starts right after the last big "dry" one), don't you?

  57. I AM SICK by GameboyRMH · · Score: 4, Funny

    Of these muthafuckin' QUAKES on this muthafuckin' (fault)PLANE!!!

    --
    "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
  58. Or it could have made it worse by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    by ensuring that instead of being released by four 5.6 earquakes, it was released all in one go. For the bungee-cord analogy, if you LET GO for a bit, the bungee cord will jump more quickly and cover more ground than if your grip just wasn't really enough. If you'd kept hold it might slip, stop, slip, stop several times but never, since you had SOME tension on the cord, reach the speed and acceleration of the scenario where you let go.

    1. Re:Or it could have made it worse by nmosfet · · Score: 1

      > For the bungee-cord analogy, if you LET GO for a bit, the bungee cord will jump more quickly and cover more ground than if your grip just wasn't really enough.

      And if you tie the cord to a post, it will eventually snap, imagine the catastrophic disaster of that. /sarcasm

      It's an analogy, not a scientific model!

  59. Not all... by doug141 · · Score: 1

    Every natural disaster has a disproportionate effect on the poor!,

    Not avalanches. ;-) I'm have doubts about waterspouts, too. Of course, these exceptions just prove your rule.

    1. Re:Not all... by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

      Waterspouts probably do more damage to fishermen in dories than large yachts. As for avalanches, those almost always do the most damage to the losers that triggered the avalanche in the first place! I'm not sure an event triggered by rich people's recreational activities qualifies as a "natural" disaster. On those rare occasions when an avalanche or mudslide actually wipes out part of a town, I'm sure the poor are disproportionately effected.

      --
      I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
  60. I hate to say this, but.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Who really gives a dam?

  61. oil comapnies blamed for California quakes by peter303 · · Score: 1

    About 20 years ago a US Geological Survey scientist noted the associated of several large California earthquakes and large oil production. He cited the same principles as in the this dam case and showed some calculations. But its hard to rule out other factors and prove this conclusively.

  62. Metric by daem0n1x · · Score: 1, Insightful

    The 511-ft-high Zipingpu dam holds 315 million tonnes of water and lies just 550 yards from the fault line

    China (and by the way the rest of the world except USA, Burma and Liberia) uses the metric system. Your numbers sound like chinese to me and most of the world population.

    1. Re:Metric by The+End+Of+Days · · Score: 1

      Then I guess you shouldn't bother reading this US site since it offends you so very much.

  63. Re:Social justice requires desalination by smellsofbikes · · Score: 2, Interesting

    >Dams prevent catastrophic, uncontrolled flooding by buffering the surge in a lake and letting it out slowly.

    As long as they're big enough. If they're not, a rapidly increasing flood of water, that if left uncontrolled might rise at 2 feet an hour, flooding many houses, could be turned into a 20 foot high wall of water, debris, and rock from washed-out dams that kills 145 people rather than just destroying a bunch of houses.
    Every "flood control structure" on that river got ripped out. A flood that had almost the same rainfall 40 years earlier didn't kill anyone because it took two hours to go from heavy runoff to full flood. My friends that were down in the canyon in the 1976 flood said the front wave of the flood was moving at about 60mph and consisted mostly of a mass of mobile homes (with the occupants still in them.)

    --
    Nostalgia's not what it used to be.
  64. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    All spelling and grammar errors are intentional. Grammar Nazis' need entertainment.

    i guess that you think that they need a lot of entertainment because you are using the wrong fucking words in that shitty post. you must have a learning disorder to confuse "whipped" with "wiped". do yourself a favor, get firefox 3 and enable spell check.

  65. Human effect on earthquakes... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There are a lot of earthquakes in Japan, perhaps these were caused by the 2 atomic bombs that made the land more vulnerable?

    *sarcasm off*

  66. Re:Social justice requires desalination by steelfood · · Score: 1

    Poor people have always been expendable. They are easily replaced, and their rulers have always understood this.

    Fixed that for you.

    --
    "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."
  67. Could have? by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

    Or not.

    Do some science and get an answer to the question.

    --
    There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
  68. You fail at being a grammar nazi! by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

    Look, if one person attacks each grammar/spelling mistake, this is gonna take all day. Do it in one post or don't do it at all.

    Everyone we will be stageing passengers to board the flood plane shortly. There will be free items given away on board as there has been a store surge. Takeoff may be delayed since the runway lights where whipped out by an insane Indiana Jones fan earlier. They typical job of replacing them doesn't take long, but the workshop doors are frozen shut and it may take some time to get the service truck out side. What is the good part. You will all be in Hawaii in just a few hours!!!!!

    (Good post LWATCDR, but you left yourself wide open :P)

    --
    "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
  69. Re:Social justice requires desalination by phosphorylate+this · · Score: 1

    It's when a damn doesn't let it out slowly that you have a problem ;)

  70. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Rich0 · · Score: 1

    Uh, that link doesn't mention anything about a washed out dam. It looks like that was just a conventional flood. (Or the article was wrong.)

    But, obviously I agree that if you're going to build a dam it is important to do it right. I have a suspicion that people are going to look at the three gorges dam with shock and horror once it is full from what I've read about their quality issues.

  71. Re:Social justice requires desalination by smellsofbikes · · Score: 1

    That wasn't a great discussion of the flood. When I drove up the canyon that afternoon, before the flood, I stopped and took pictures of 5 of the dams, flood control structures, and diversions in the canyon, and talked to the guy who lived at Viestenz-Smith hydroelectric power plant about running big power-generating equipment. The next day they were all gone: the entire canyon was about a meter wider and two meters deeper than it had been. The only thing left of the power plant was two of the generator magnets and the concrete beneath them. As I recall, the guy I talked to, his body was identified by the fingerprints on one hand, because that arm was all the body they found.
    I can't find any good pictures anywhere online, though.

    So what they learned was: the big dam in Estes, above the canyon, survived, because it was big enough to absorb the surge of water from one watershed involved. All the structures below that were overwhelmed by water from other watersheds, and what that ended up doing was turning a fairly rapid increase of water, into a moving dam, essentially, with the waterfront restrained by all the crap it had ripped out. It would slam into the next dam/flood control structure, fill it, overtop it, pour over the lip, and erode it extremely quickly, adding to the pulse nature of the flood. When it exited the mouth of the canyon, a house hung up on and ripped out an aqueduct more than 30 feet above the riverbed.
    Since that time, they've only rebuilt one dam and they built it a lot bigger. The idea is: you better know you can contain the whole flood (and if you can't your structure better fail gracefully rather than catastrophically.)
    There's a great book called The Control Of Nature, by John McPhee, that has a chapter (1/3 of the book) about flood control on the lower Mississippi and how much more complicated it is than just building dams: how a dam here can mean more flooding over there, or worse flooding over there, or NO flooding over there. It's just hard to know without excellent modelling and a good historical record. Hence the cautionary principle: it's usually better to do nothing, and keep people from living in the area, than to build something that you *think* can prevent disasters and then find out you're wrong.
    Of course, if people are already living there, it's a lot trickier. China doesn't have a problem just displacing large groups of people, so it's easier for them.

    --
    Nostalgia's not what it used to be.
  72. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Ensign+Nemo · · Score: 1

    Uh. no. I was volunteering at the Red Cross during Katrina and kept up closely with what was going on. While there is definitely blame to placed on the mayor and governor (and those that decided to ride out the storm because every other storm hadn't been a problem), FEMA royally screwed the pooch on Katrina. They did not do their typical job. They dropped the ball an a huge scale. The feds should be smacked upside the head for incompetency.

  73. Re:Social justice requires desalination by Paranatural · · Score: 1

    It's sad that crap like this gets modded insightful. Were you there? No. I can tell by how astoundingly wrong you are. You're just some armchair 'expert' commenting on crap you honestly know nothing about and rated by other morons. You remind me of a creationist. You know nothing but some BS you were half-taught, and you half made up yourself, and people thing you're intelligent for making it up.

  74. Re:Social justice requires desalination by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

    Umm... Why wasn't their drinking water there on day zero? Why wasn't it their on day one. Why didn't the national guard under the Governor have it there?
    It always takes Fema a few days to get to a site. The first 48 hours are the responsibility of the local government. The first five days the state. Remember that New Orleans only got a near miss by the storm. The real damage was in Mississippi. Whole towns where destroyed. Sorry folks but I have a few friends in our local emergency management. Before the storm happened I got to hear them talking about what a disaster New Orleans and all of Louisiana was and still is.

    --
    See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.