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Global Anoxia Ruled Out As Main Culprit In the P-T Extinction

Garin writes "The late Permian saw the greatest mass extinction event of all-time. The causes for this extinction are hotly debated, but one key piece of the puzzle has recently been revealed: while the deep-water environments were anoxic, shallower waters showed clear signs of being oxygenated. This rules out global anoxia, and strongly suggests that other factors, such as the Siberian Traps vulcanism, must have played a dominant role. From the article: 'Rather than the direct cause of global extinction, anoxia may be more a contributing factor along with numerous other impacts associated with Siberian Traps eruption and other perturbations to the Earth system.' See the full research article (behind a paywall) here."

158 comments

  1. Siberian Traps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    To this day, we're all still very wary of Siberian Traps.

    1. Re:Siberian Traps by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 0

      Racism and LGBTism, all in one succinct post. You must be so proud of yourself.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    2. Re:Siberian Traps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      The meteorite in the Yucatan was at the end of the Cretaceous period, they are referring to a proposed impact over 400 million years earlier due to some discoveries of a potential 300 mile wide impact crater in Antarctica... The Cretaceous extinction even only killed off about 75% of species as compared to 90% being killed off in the extinction that this article is about.

      Apparently, the super volcano in this case erupted for nearly a million years, warmed the oceans to 100 degrees F and forced all organic growth (as measured by coal deposits) to the poles. Whether caused by an impact or mantle event, it would be incredibly destructive to any 'society' living on the planet

    3. Re:Siberian Traps by SnarfQuest · · Score: 1

      Russian cross dressers can be rather intimidating.

      --
      Who would win this election: Andrew Weiner vs Andrew Weiner's weiner.
    4. Re:Siberian Traps by noh8rz8 · · Score: 0

      i dont get it? "siberian" i suppose but I would argue that it's a nationality or ethnicity rather than a race, and so is more aptly described as xenophobia rather than racism. but the lgbt? idungedit.

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    5. Re:Siberian Traps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      but the lgbt? idungedit.

      You know, a "trap"... like girlintraining. Or a Thai ladyboy.

      Also, don't miss the fact that the poster paranoiacally accusing you of anti-trannyism has ironically caused you to learn a new epithet for this particular type of person. So really, that person is to blame for spreading these terms.

      The More You Know!(tm)

    6. Re:Siberian Traps by noh8rz8 · · Score: 0

      OK I did some research... i think the best terms are xenophobia and transphobia.

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    7. Re:Siberian Traps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The P-T extinction event was about 252 MYO.

    8. Re:Siberian Traps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know, a "trap"... like girlintraining. Or a Thai ladyboy.

      Oh that explains the weird angry serial posting, all those hormone injections.

    9. Re:Siberian Traps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Vodka and thigh-highs - what's not to love..?

    10. Re:Siberian Traps by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      Ooookay, maybe I'm just old and haven't kept up on my lingo but I thought "trap" wasn't considered an insult while tranny is? Maybe i heard wrong but the way i was told a "trap' was one that looked so much like a female that you honestly couldn't tell without doing the bit from Crocodile Dundee , which if their goal is to transition logically one would think not being able to tell that they weren't born that sex would be a pretty nice compliment? But since I'm not one and don't know anybody in that community maybe I'm wrong.

      As for TFA I thought it was pretty much decided it wasn't ANY one thing but a BUNCH of things over a geologically short period of time that created a "perfect storm" that wiped nearly everything out?

      --
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    11. Re:Siberian Traps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      they are referring to a proposed impact over 400 million years earlier due to some discoveries of a potential 300 mile wide impact crater in Antarctica

      Are people still talking about that? Everyone I knew laugh about it seven years ago. When you interpolate data, you see lots of smooth shapes that look like something special. We've filled in those areas and there's nothing there. This happens all the time. Over and over. We've got a lot more data and it didn't pan out.

      I couldn't find where Ralph von Frese ever publish a paper on his theory. Just lots of crazy press reports and after one conference abstract. So, I guess you're right to call it proposed. I'd point you to a paper disproving it, but no one has bothered, because there wasn't a paper saying it existed to refute.

    12. Re:Siberian Traps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ugh. I should have linked this. There's newer data now, but you can see the "impact crater is gone".

    13. Re:Siberian Traps by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      They are passing for babushkas.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    14. Re:Siberian Traps by minstrelmike · · Score: 1

      speak for yourself.
      We aren't all named Snowden ;-O

    15. Re:Siberian Traps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      !!! djb ;)

    16. Re:Siberian Traps by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      we all know that it was the meteorite that landed in the yucatan

      Not agreed at all, within the professional geological community (Discovery Channel producers may disagree, but they'll come round to our point of view, once we decide what that is). For a start, it may have been up to 300,000 years before the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (though that is still a matter of disagreement).

      the kamkuska

      ITYM "Tunguska" ; the hypocentre was near the "Stony Tunguska" river.

      anti-matter one

      The geological evidence does not support or require such exotic materials. (Which is a polite way of saying "bullshit!")

      was in 1910

      1908. 07:14 local time on 30th June, to be more precise.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    17. Re:Siberian Traps by RockDoctor · · Score: 1
      The Yucatan impact was close to (but not necessarily coincident with - this is a matter of dispute and debate at the moment) the end-Cretaceous mass extinction. It could have been up to 300,000 years earlier, which is ... troublesome ... for people advocating the impact causing the extinction. The impact wouldn't have left anyone with a "good hair day," but that's not necessarily the same as "Die! Now."

      The end-Permian mass extinction was at around 252 Myr ago ; 190 Myr before the end-Cretaceous mass extinction. Extinction levels were about as you say.

      Fingers claiming to explain the end-Permian mass extinction have been pointed at a putative Antarctic crater, at one off the NW coast of Australia, and also at Lac Manicougain in Quebec, Canada. They've also accused the Siberian Traps LIP (Large Igneous Province). Pointing fingers is not the same as producing an undisputed case. And, as for the end-Cretaceous, the close coincidence in timing between the LIP and an impactor may have been a coup de grace being applied to an already highly stressed ecology, begging the question of whether one cause or the other alone would have been significant on a global scale. We (my geologist colleagues and I) don't know the answer, and opinions do vary between researchers. The end-Triassic LIP known as the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province may be a relevant counter example, without a coincident impactor, and a relatively minor effect on species count and diversity.

      You're being a bit over precise (and over-dramatic) with your temperatures and habitability estimates. Living through a LIP event (which typically take less than a million years, but we don't generally know if it's 1/4 Myr or 3/4 Myr, which has a big effect on expected levels of gas emissions. It's also within the bounds of dating precision that a LIP takes 3/4 Myr, as 25 distinct pulses of 10 kyr each.

      It'd still be a pretty "bad hair millennium" to live through. (Incidentally, Yellowstone isn't in the same league. It hasn't shown itself able to ejaculate often enough.)

      Just because the producers of "popular science" programmes present something as clear and simple, doesn't mean to say that's what the actual scientists in the field think. Particularly, they've been hyping the "impact extinction" hypothesis as an answer to the end-Cretaceous extinction event, but several persistent critics of that hypothesis are still very much in contention. I don't like to see too much confidence nailed onto that hypothesis, because it's definitely not a settled question. Everyone would like to know "who killed the dinosaurs," but we really don't have a "beyond reasonable doubt" case. See also my signature.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    18. Re:Siberian Traps by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Russian cross dressers can be rather intimidating.

      Speaking as a man married to a Russian woman, I can assure you that cross Russian un-dressers can be positively mesmerising. And "demanding" in a way that will get the average Slashdot denizen rubbing the hair off the palm of his hand just thinking about it.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  2. Anoxia misread by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I read anoxia as anorexia.

    1. Re:Anoxia misread by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Anorexic Siberian Traps? This could get interesting.

    2. Re:Anoxia misread by bidule · · Score: 1

      I read anoxia as anorexia.

      ditto!

      OTOH, I can how falling for traps would lead to extinction.

      --
      ID: the nose did not occur naturally, how would we wear glasses otherwise? (apologies to Voltaire)
    3. Re:Anoxia misread by stillnotelf · · Score: 1

      I also misread anorexia. Anorexia is, of course, what led to mass extinction...although I guess there's a difference between "no food is available to eat" (starvation/malnutrition) and "I won't eat food" (anorexia).

    4. Re:Anoxia misread by Lord+Kano · · Score: 1

      So did I. I was thinking "No shit Sherlock" until I went back and re-read the title.

      LK

      --
      "Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
    5. Re:Anoxia misread by Black+Parrot · · Score: 2

      I read anoxia as anorexia.

      At least you didn't read it as dyslexia.

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    6. Re:Anoxia misread by FatdogHaiku · · Score: 4, Funny

      I read anoxia as anorexia.

      90% of all species died... but they were looking very stylish right up to that point...

      --
      You have the right to remain sentient. If you give up the right to remain sentient, you will be elected to public office
    7. Re:Anoxia misread by Hognoxious · · Score: 2

      I read it as anxiety. Should I worry about that?

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    8. Re:Anoxia misread by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lol, I did the same. All those species pushed to extinction by fashion magazines.

  3. WTF?! by oldhack · · Score: 1

    Gorilla glass, what's that?

    --
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    1. Re:WTF?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A monocle for a myopic ape.

    2. Re:WTF?! by Brett+Buck · · Score: 0

      Proof that Google's Marketing Department are unmitigated genii, that's what it is!

    3. Re:WTF?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know, we have these things called "computers" now, you don't have to dig through that Britannica any more to look things up.

  4. A Breathtaking Report!! by NEDHead · · Score: 4, Funny

    or not...

    1. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by jaymzter · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Well WTH, I have to pass half the terms in the summary through Wikipedia to figure out what the heck they're talking about? This is supposed to be a self-selecting site for smart folk, but being smart in one area doesn't make you knowledgeable in another.

      It would probably help if the editors required more than just copypasta from the original article. I don't think I'm being dumb, just acknowledging that I'm ignorant of certain topics.

      --
      If thou see a fair woman pay court to her, for thus thou wilt obtain love
    2. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      and yet you spent some time educating yourself... excellent, excellent...

    3. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by Garin · · Score: 4, Informative

      Well, ok. Though there's not much more that I could have written in that short of a space that can teach the subject.

      I linked the Calgary Herald / Postmedia News article because it's an astonishingly well-written bit of science journalism that lays it all out superbly – kudos to Randy Boswell. He didn't put *exactly* the same emphasis on exactly the same things that Proemse (the principal author) would have, but it's minor. That's the "public" piece, and it's full of tons of great information.

      I also linked the official research article. Unfortunately it's behind a paywall. However, if that's the kind of thing that really turns your crank you probably already have access to it one way or another (in the worst case: via a physical trip to your local university). If you can't, well, correspondence with an author is a time-honored method for obtaining your own copy.

      --
      In any field, find the strangest thing and then explore it. -John Archibald Wheeler
    4. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by Garin · · Score: 3, Informative

      Actually, I'll take that back about the emphasis bit. Boswell pretty well nails it right on the head. Now I'm looking through some of his other articles, and they're excellent.

      --
      In any field, find the strangest thing and then explore it. -John Archibald Wheeler
    5. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 3, Funny

      or not...

      It turns out that the reports of anoxia in the Permian were actually full of hot air.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    6. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by ultranova · · Score: 1

      I don't think I'm being dumb, just acknowledging that I'm ignorant of certain topics.

      You are doing more than acknowledging said ignorance: you are implying that other people, rather than you, should take some action about this. You are not being dumb, you are being lazy and entitled, which is much worse.

      Also, if the summary truly was incomprehensible to you, your level of general knowledge is rather pathetic. Not that that's surprising with that attitude.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    7. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      Well WTH, I have to pass half the terms in the summary through Wikipedia to figure out what the heck they're talking about?

      1. There are not many "terms" to even be "passed" "through" Wikipedia. Which is not a goddamned algorithm.
      2. You didn't know what anoxia means? And "while the deep-water environments were anoxic, shallower waters showed clear signs of being oxygenated. This rules out global anoxia" didn't explain the word by context? Because otherwise you must be complaining about either "volcanism" (pathetic) or "perturbations" (even more pathetic) and you need to spend a fuck of a lot more time reading and less time writing comments with only very short words.
      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    8. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't think I'm being dumb, just acknowledging that I'm ignorant of certain topics.

      You are doing more than acknowledging said ignorance: you are implying that other people, rather than you, should take some action about this. You are not being dumb, you are being lazy and entitled, which is much worse.

      Also, if the summary truly was incomprehensible to you, your level of general knowledge is rather pathetic. Not that that's surprising with that attitude.

      Someone forgot their meds this morning.

    9. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes. That article struck me as 'astonishingly good' for a general publication science article. Unfortunately rare, but thank you for bringing it up.

      And I agree - it's hard to come up with a one paragraph, generically interesting and specifically accurate Fine Summary. You did a pretty good job.

      And further Kudos to the poster who actually, you know, looked something up and learned something. I thought that was most of the reason this site exists.

    10. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Okay, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the Permian extinction about at the time of the rifting of the Atlantic? I don't the kimberlites -- which represent an extremely rare supervolcanic explosion -- largely align in two great 850-mi-radius rings around the Hudson Bay and the African Karoo, back in the permian? And wasn't the Hudson, at that time, nearly over the New England Plume, where the Atlantic rifted?

      And wasn't there a theory, checked out with negative conclusions, by the Smithsonian's chief paleontologist (U of Az, IIRC), that the Siberian traps were related to an asteroid strike on the opposite side of the globe in Patagonia, just as the Deccan traps would have been from Chixclub?

      But... isn't there also a huge iridium layer all over southern Pangea? And don't the Pangean Hudson Bay and African Karoo align in shape, size, and structure, with the Pangean Carribean and Scotia Plates, respectively?

      So I'm still thinking... asteroid strike, followed by 2 huge De Meijer /Van Westrenen blasts, one triggered by the astroid hitting a collection of georeactors down at the Karoo, and then the other, under the Hudson, triggered by the shock waves. The nuclear contamination of the 2 De Meijer / Van Westrenen blasts would have played havoc with the zircon dating as you approached the blast sites, thus throwing a huge spread into -- for example -- the record of the fungal burst.

    11. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by xevioso · · Score: 1

      The issue is that no crater has been found in an antipode position to the Siberian traps. However, there is a theory that the Wilkws Land crater, underneath the Antarctic, is 250 myr old, and would match the location of this crater.

    12. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why wouldn't the Scotia Plate, and the African Karoo, together, be such a crater? There's tectites all over the place there.

    13. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well WTH, I have to pass half the terms in the summary through Wikipedia to figure out what the heck they're talking about?

      You're not very educated or well-read if you do. Maybe a nerd site isn't the best place for you?

    14. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by ultranova · · Score: 1

      Someone forgot their meds this morning.

      More like someone forgot their education. And then decided to make drama out of it.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    15. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by minstrelmike · · Score: 1

      It is frustrating dealing with anorexic brains ;-)

    16. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      So I'm still thinking... asteroid strike, followed by 2 huge De Meijer /Van Westrenen blasts, one triggered by the astroid hitting a collection of georeactors down at the Karoo,

      While I don't accept any of your other stuff without checking (and I'm pretty dubious of it's relevance in any case), this is relatively easy to dispose of.

      Unless I've misunderstood it substantially, van Westrenan is talking about accumulating fissile deposits at the core-mantle boundary. That's just shy of 3000km below the surface. To have a significant effect there, you'd need an impactor that is going to rip the Earth into pieces with 10s of percent of the mass being ejected, at least temporarily. Also, van Westrenan has been proposing a mechanism which would require considerably higher concentrations of U-235 and other highly-fissionable isotopes, and is therefore something that is far less likely as you wait longer and longer after the formation of the earth. So, it was about 16 to 32 times as likely to happen in the first 1000 Myr of the Earth's existence as it is to happen in the current 1000 Myr of the Earth's history. All these events under discussion have happened in the current 1000 Myr of the Earth's history.

      One of the reasons that zircon crystals are considered good for dating work is that they are very resistant to the penetration of contaminants applied to their surface. In fact, examining the changes in date that you get by dating the outermost micron of a zircon crystal, then the next micron, then the next ... is a pretty routine part of using zircons for dating, because that can give you information about the entire history of the zircon crystal, which can often reveal several cycles of recycling of an individual crystal through re-melting of the rock. Your proposition would result in a severe discordance between the inner and outer dates for the crystals. I don't know of such reported complex histories for LIP zircons ; can you cite relevant papers that would support your model?

      I really can't see what you're getting at in respect of "Pangaean Caribbean and Scotia plates?" Are you suggesting that (for the South African example), the South African craton has delaminated it's lower crust and lithospheric mantle which is now floating around as the Scotia plate?

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    17. Re:A Breathtaking Report!! by RockDoctor · · Score: 1
      The hypothesis that the "contrecoup" concentration of energy from an astrobleme is necessary to the initiation of a flood basalt province, has little support in the geological community. Part of the reason is the small energy content of an astrobleme compared to a flood basalt province - it's a severe case of the flea on the dog's tail wagging the whole dog. But a better reason is that some flood basalt provinces seem to predate their alleged astrobleme progenitors. Then there are the flood basalt provinces that (as you point out) don't have an associated antipodal astrobleme.

      The Earth appears to be able to generate flood basalt provinces without the input of an astrobleme ; so, the presence of a flood basalt isn't a reason to expect the presence of an antipodal astrobleme which precedes it closely in time.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  5. The largest *known* extinction event by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Since we do not know much about extinction events prior to multicellular life, we should not be calling P-T extinction as largest ever. It's just just the largest (so far) in the last ~500 million years.

    We are also living though another great extinction which is caused by ourselves, directly. And this extinction is quickly accelerating.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction
    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/05/0515_030515_fishdecline.html

    Who knows. Maybe by the time we are done with this planet, P-T will look like a cakewalk in comparison.

    1. Re:The largest *known* extinction event by gmuslera · · Score: 1

      Look at the brigth side. Maybe thanks to that, in some millons years could evolve intelligence in this planet at last.

    2. Re:The largest *known* extinction event by khallow · · Score: 2

      Maybe by the time we are done with this planet, P-T will look like a cakewalk in comparison.

      Well, our "mass extinction" has already resulted in a global, industrial society so it's well ahead of the P-T extinction already.

    3. Re:The largest *known* extinction event by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The return of Twinkies slows the mass extinction of engineers in the USA and may lead to reduction of H-1B's. It would have been worse had pizza be banned in NYC by the mayor as a cause of obesity.

    4. Re:The largest *known* extinction event by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I submit there is at least one other species with a globally industrial society.

      Ants.

    5. Re:The largest *known* extinction event by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Termites!

    6. Re:The largest *known* extinction event by khallow · · Score: 1

      Ants.

      They don't have societies beyond the scale of limited cooperation between nests. Bird migration would be at least on the right spatial scale.

    7. Re:The largest *known* extinction event by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Since we do not know much about extinction events prior to multicellular life, we should not be calling P-T extinction as largest ever. It's just just the largest (so far) in the last ~500 million years.

      A good point, and one that I was considering raising myself.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  6. Gasping by numdig · · Score: 1

    Anoxia, something to teach to our kids so that they at least know what they are going to die from. Once all trapped CO2 will be released, the tropical lungs of the planet devastated, and the ocean saturated in co2 (and acid)... Making us struggling for water and gasping for air, in the name of progress, will be the great achievement of mankind : in just about 3 centuries doing as much damages as one huge volcanic activity.

    1. Re:Gasping by able1234au · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And this is why people laugh at Deniers as they have no idea of the science or the problem.

    2. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's real retarded, sir. That's real retarded to do that, sir.

    3. Re:Gasping by symbolset · · Score: 0

      Look up at the GP and see if it meets your idea of the science or the problem. If it does then you are equally guilty of overselling the issue because it is ridiculous to the absurd.

      Anoxia, something to teach to our kids so that they at least know what they are going to die from

      Really? 400 PPM and our kids are going to die of anoxia?

      Making us struggling for water and gasping for air

      Oh please.

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    4. Re:Gasping by stenvar · · Score: 1, Informative

      Once all the carbon is released, the globe will be roughly where it was during the Eocene. That means: lush vegetation, lots of mammals and primates, forests in the Antarctic and Sahara, far less temperature differences between high and low latitudes, and generally a warmer and wetter climate.

    5. Re:Gasping by able1234au · · Score: 2

      How does "Once all trapped CO2 will be released" [in the future] equate to "400 PPM" which we have already past.

      Perhaps your reading skills need a polish.

    6. Re:Gasping by able1234au · · Score: 1

      and btw, i am not suggesting we will all die of Anoxia but people who say "The Earth's climate was warmer before than now as little as 12,000 years ago" clearly are not following the science and are just spouting denier rubbish.

    7. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's a bit over the top but not totally unrealistic. There has been a measurable decline in oxygen in the atmosphere from the burning of fossil carbon but it's not declining fast enough to worry about. It would take (tens of?) thousands of years to bring oxygen at sea level down to Tibet levels.

      12,000 years ago the orbital forcings may have been higher but I doubt the climate was warmer than now. The great ice sheets of the past glaciation were still retreating and they covered a lot of the northern hemisphere. The was the time of the Younger Dryas where temperatures actually chilled significantly. dfw

    8. Re:Gasping by Opportunist · · Score: 2

      Oh, don't worry. Humanity will survive. Unless we kill each other in the attempt to stay dry.

      The main reason why this wasn't a big deal about 12,000 years ago is simply that there was plenty of room and very little in terms of population. Moving inland when your coastal area was being flooded wasn't that big a deal (not to mention that the gods were to blame for it and who could argue that people have to move when their gods tell them to?).

      It just MIGHT be a bit different today when I really don't feel like sharing my apartment with people who don't wanna live under water.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    9. Re:Gasping by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      That's true. Provided you can move a few continents to where they were back then, else it might be a wee bit different in the outcome.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    10. Re:Gasping by stenvar · · Score: 1

      The continents weren't in hugely different positions. Ocean currents have changed somewhat. But on the whole, there is no evidence that Eocene-like CO2 concentrations would result in very different effects now than they did during the Eocene. They would certainly not result in "anoxia".

    11. Re:Gasping by symbolset · · Score: 2

      First: you might have logged in for this post and given it your cred, even if it was your first post.

      Children asphyxiating at 400 ppm CO2 is completely unrealistic. It is hyperbole. It is absurd. At 40,000 ppm it might become credible, but 40K ppm is not plausible if we cooked off every potential fossil fuel including methane clathrates, every bit of limestone and every bit of granite on the surface of the Earth two miles down. It's not going to happen unless the kid is asthmatic, and then pollen or mold is more likely his issue. Bringing children into it at all is "think of the children" emotional escalation.

      If you're going to fight the good fight, bring a real problem. If you don't have a real problem to bring you might reexamine the basis of your religion. Ah, who am I kidding? You will find a way to rationalize your position. You're already excusing people who would describe 400 PPM of CO2 as "asphyxiating children". You'll probably find a way to compare me to Hitler.

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    12. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Something else I've often suspected would happen along with those lush forests is much MUCH bigger insects. It's been pretty conclusively established that the reason pre-historical insects were so much bigger is that there was a higher oxygen pressure, allowing their non-lung breathing systems to support bigger bodies.
      Thus; you have large releases of CO2, which warms the planet and causes flora of all sorts to florish. Shortly after that, the increased plant life consumes a lot of CO2 and releases O2 as the waste gas. Result: higher atmospheric pressures overall, and I'm guessing roughly the same O2:CO2 ratio as now.

      Up here, we joke that mosquitos in cottage country are big enough to require landing lights and I know that in equatorial areas, they have cockroaches big enough to not only survive a foot, but possibly fight back. Also, I can't stand the more alien, spiky looking centipedes . Imagining us having to co-exist with Paleozoic sized insects is the stuff of nightmares in my book!

    13. Re:Gasping by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      It's rather doubtful indeed. Still, I kinda doubt it will be a pleasant life.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    14. Re:Gasping by symbolset · · Score: 1

      If sea level increased 100 meters, or 1000 meters I still wouldn't have oceanfront property. All of Antarctica, Greenland, Iceland, and every glacier could melt, and the shore would still not lap at my door. Apparently I'm confused about where I should build my home. I should pay premium prices for the waterfront properties soon to be eaten by the sea and then demand that the inevitable not happen.

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    15. Re:Gasping by stenvar · · Score: 1

      For the last few million years, we have had severe glacial periods every 100000 years and brief interglacials. That kind of harsh climate may have forced the evolution of H. sapiens, but by any objective standard, it is "not pleasant". Without AGW, we'd probably be starting another deep glaciation within a couple of thousand years. Human carbon emissions may be putting that off, and I don't see why that's a bad thing.

    16. Re:Gasping by symbolset · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      First, when we passed 400 PPM you were not the guy that submitted the news to /. That was me. Where were you then, that you could not be bothered?

      It's a really big thing, but it isn't the thing you're making it to be. You are trying to twist it to your own purpose. When big things happen charlatans appear on the periphery to reap profits from fear and uncertainty. Is that you? What's your angle?

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    17. Re:Gasping by symbolset · · Score: 0

      Let me get this straight. Are you denying that Earth's climate was warmer than now 12,000 years ago? Do you have some proof?

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      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    18. Re:Gasping by Opportunist · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Well, some people do care whether other people can survive. The point is simple: People will want to survive. If necessary, by floating on your corpse.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    19. Re:Gasping by able1234au · · Score: 5, Informative

      Sure, read Skeptical Science. Those quoted figures are from one single location and may not reflect what was happening elsewhere. This site is an excellent example of good science and they have extensive responses to the common denier arguments. I would recommend spending some time there.

      Also, keep in mind that the issue is what is forcing the increase. The 400PPM is not going away in our lifetime nor our grandchildren's lifetime. This problem will get worse not better. And of course 12,000 years ago the population was a lot smaller. The total world population probably never exceeded 15 million inhabitants before the invention of agriculture so with 7 Billion people alive today the impact of a warmer environment is likely to be higher than it was 12,000 years ago.

    20. Re:Gasping by able1234au · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      No i didn't post it. You did. You are confused about that?

      No i am not a charlatan planning to reap profits from fear and uncertainty. Why, are you giving lessons?

    21. Re:Gasping by symbolset · · Score: 1

      At the current rate of sea level rise if you can't walk to safety you should ask somebody to carry you. If you can get two extra meters of elevation you should be good for a human lifespan.

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      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    22. Re:Gasping by symbolset · · Score: 1

      This problem will get worse not better.

      The assumption here is that the current state is a "problem" and that getting warmer than this is "worse". These are two assertions I would dispute. Have you some evidence to support these two claims?

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      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    23. Re:Gasping by symbolset · · Score: 0

      You're trying to paint me as a denier when I'm here in the trenches fighting the good fight - but doing it the right way with science and reason, not rhetoric and emotion, engaging the audience with mutual honest respect. Yes, maybe I'm giving lessons. Do you want to save the planet? It doesn't require being a stupid ass. At least not here. If you want to post context-free propaganda take that shit to CNET where they like it.

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      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    24. Re:Gasping by able1234au · · Score: 1

      That is a fair question and the answer is not completely known. But the indications are not great. I can turn this around, why are you confident that all will be fine?

    25. Re:Gasping by able1234au · · Score: 1

      Well sounds like you are jumping at shadows. I am all for focusing on the science. So i take it from this that all your other responses are just trolls. Back under the bridge with you!

    26. Re:Gasping by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      Hope you have no problem moving your house accordingly. Or finding someone dumb enough to buy that beach estate.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    27. Re:Gasping by KeensMustard · · Score: 1, Interesting
      Ah - so you have a model that shows that the earths climate will remain amenable to human life, causing neither hardship nor any form of mass migration?

      And indeed, that current levels of biodiversity will be maintained - that global warming will not result in the loss of bio-diversity?

      You have a model that discounts the 20% hit to global GDP evident in other published works?

      Whereabouts might we find your model - I assume it's been published?

    28. Re:Gasping by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

      he Earth's climate was warmer before than now as little as 12,000 years ago.

      No, it wasn't. 12,000 years ago was just after the end of the last glacial.

      Before that it was mostly uninhabitable by humans for 100,000 years except for some equatorial regions because: ice.

      No, it wan't. Glacials certainly don't make "non-equatorial regions" uninhabitable. At the height of the last one, most of the US and more than half of Europe were certainly inhabitable.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    29. Re:Gasping by symbolset · · Score: 1

      I did not assert that all will be fine. Why do you put that on me when I did not say it? Are you seeking some consensus with me?

      I would assert that a return to ice age conditions is not desirable. On this I hope we can agree. In this we can set the outer bound of acceptable conditions on the colder end to -0.8c below 20th century norms because any lower than that and glacial forcings push the average temp down to -8c rather abruptly. That evolution is suboptimal for agriculture and animal husbandry, and my heating bill.

      Between 0C and 8C above historical norms I don't have a position either way. I just don't know whether the net result is good or bad. Certainly at +6C vast swaths of terrain in Russia and Canada are opened for agriculture, but is that good? I don't know.

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    30. Re:Gasping by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      And indeed, that current levels of biodiversity will be maintained - that global warming will not result in the loss of bio-diversity?

      Human involvement has already destroyed a vast portion of Holocene biodiversity even without the global warming, and will continue to do so for quite some while. Even if the biosphere were completely immune to temperature changes, how's this trend supposed to reverse? (We can't clone most of the species we've destroyed.)

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    31. Re:Gasping by symbolset · · Score: 1

      I was not stupid enough to buy a house in south Florida, nor in New Orleans. People have bought swampland for all of the history of real estate, and suffered for it as they ought. If your house is at sea level or below: learn to swim.

      --
      Help stamp out iliturcy.
    32. Re:Gasping by Threni · · Score: 1

      I'm peer reviewing it for him right now, only I'm very busy. Remind me again, is it `heat bad, cold good` or is it the other way around.

    33. Re:Gasping by Maow · · Score: 1

      Certainly at +6C vast swaths of terrain in Russia and Canada are opened for agriculture, but is that good? I don't know.

      Plants need light as least as much as they need warmth.

      And vast swaths of terrain in Russia and Canada have very poor light levels during large amounts of the year.

      Maybe lettuce and other greens can be grown a 2nd season. Perhaps moss salad will become haute cuisine.

      But don't overlook the fact that a lot of the water to irrigate current agriculture comes from snow pack that melts all summer long... So - warmer weather = less snow pack / faster melt might just mean less agricultural productivity. Subterranean aquifers will not capture it all - it'll run off or require a whole lot of dams and new reservoirs.

      But the Deniers are too dangerous and short-sighted to laugh at; the very real possibility that things won't magically resolve themselves and serious impacts on humanity can, just maybe, occur.

    34. Re:Gasping by khallow · · Score: 0

      But the indications are not great.

      The title of the linked article is "Can animals and plants adapt to global warming?" It is worth noting here that most existing animals and plants already have adapted to the considerable global warming that followed the end of the last glacial period. What is different this time is the widespread habitat destruction of a global human presence.

      So my view is that we already know that the answer to the question is a qualified "yes" (some organisms don't have other places to go). The existing plants and animals can for the most part adapt to global warming, if they have some options of long term migration. In that light, I think this particular alleged harm of global warming could be substantially mitigated by creating connected zones of wild areas.

      Also, there's no discussion of harm to human society which IMHO should be valued higher than species preservation. Here, I think the argument is far weaker because the usual proposed solutions (radically cutting back on carbon emissions) would cause substantial harm to poor people throughout the world. It also has little support in the developing world which is currently responsible for most greenhouse gas emission increases.

      It's also worth noting that we're on track to fail to achieve even the low end of the temperature range increase (2C by 2100) claimed by that link. There has been a consistent bias to overestimate the effects of global warming. I think it has to do with the considerable public spending that can be released if it is considered a significant and urgent danger.

    35. Re:Gasping by Opportunist · · Score: 2

      Well, that's also a position to take, but the problem is that people who built their houses there for whatever dumb reason won't simply go "oh well, I was dumb, here I sink, farewell dear world".

      They'll come to YOU and want YOUR home. Whether they get it and kick you out or die trying doesn't really matter much, considering that they have no real option.

      And somehow I don't feel like fighting someone who cannot back down.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    36. Re:Gasping by khallow · · Score: 1

      How does "Once all trapped CO2 will be released" [in the future] equate to "400 PPM" which we have already past.

      How can we release all trapped CO2? Most of it is locked in stone - limestone. As I recall, toxicity problems start appearing around 5,000 ppm which is still a bit away, especially if plant life starts hovering up that excess CO2.

    37. Re:Gasping by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      If you can get two extra meters of elevation you should be good for a human lifespan.

      The sea has risen nine feet in the last hundred years and is projected to rise nine feet in the next fifty. But ice melt rate is exceeding all propositions. Even if it weren't, though, you'd still be wrong.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    38. Re:Gasping by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The current state is obviously a problem because we already know it's driving weather which we find inconvenient.

      We know that getting warmer than this will be a problem because it leads to more of the same.

      Evidence to support these claims? Are you fucking serious? That's all that this science does.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    39. Re:Gasping by Burz · · Score: 2

      Comparing the Eocene with modern AGW is like comparing parking your car at the mall with crashing your car into a tree: They both involved trips where the car reduced its speed from 60 to 0 MPH.

    40. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How can we release all trapped CO2?

      The GP's narrative has bigger problems than not knowing how to release the CO2. The GP seems to assume if we ever release CO2, it's done as a part of some super villain plot to blow up the world, because well... that's what super villains do.

      In reality, we'll probably release the CO2 because some capitalist figured out how to make CO2 profitable. And they'll do it without killing too many people (dead people can't enjoy profits after all)

      So to answer your question: we'll release all the CO2 by extracting it, and we'll extract it the same way we extracted coal, oil, and other stuff from the ground throughout history: with capitalism and profit-driven motives

      So if we ever figure out how to release all the CO2 in the ground, I wouldn't lament. I'd cheer at the triumph of humanity's ingenuity and science.

    41. Re:Gasping by jbengt · · Score: 1

      Children asphyxiating at 400 ppm CO2 is completely unrealistic. It is hyperbole. It is absurd. At 40,000 ppm it might become credible, but 40K ppm is not plausible if we cooked off every potential fossil fuel

      It's actually plausible at around 2,000 to 4,000 ppm CO2, more likely at 5,000 to 10,000 ppm, 30,000 ppm will kill you. (5,000 ppm is OSHA's 8-hour TWA limit, some people feel symptoms at lower exposures) It's not the lack of oxygen that would be the issue, it's the body's respiratory/metabolic feedback mechanisms which can't cope with that much CO2. And the Earth has had CO2 levels above 5,000 ppm in the distant past, so it's not completely beyond concern.

    42. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're not incorrect. Might not be correct either, but mostly you (and the vast majority of people) miss the point.

      You are certainly correct that the current planetary ecology can handle reasonably wide variations in a number of growth parameters and survive. The planet has thrown life a impressive salad of rocks, magma, liquid, solid and gaseous poisons that nature has handled with aplomb and given thousands of field scientists ample excuse to stay outside and not wipe their shoes. All is well and good in terms of the planet.

      For mankind, if you give a rat's ass about that miserable apex predator, perhaps not so much. At 7+ billion annoying human beings (that number must give some marketing people prolonged orgasms) we're crammed up at the edge of carrying capacity of the environment. So it's not going to take much more change to get some (billions) of people in significant trouble.

      This bothers a lot of tender souls, especially those persons who wonder what happens when large swaths of the equatorial band on the planet become less habitable. You know, that large band where 70% of the planet's human infestation resides. That group of people who might resent being starved and dehydrated to death. Some of those people have heard of the aphorism 'the veneer of civilization is thin, indeed' and wonders what happens when the coating gets scraped off.

      Much of the rest of the planet's humans are too busy being politicians or watching Jersey Shore but some folks feel like they need a somewhat larger purpose in their lives, so they worry about these sorts of things.

    43. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I was logged on when I posted but I posted AC to preserve the mod points I'd already spent (and no, I didn't mod you). As I explained anoxia from burning fossil fuels is not an issue any time soon (and probably never). "Struggling for water and gasping for air" as I said is over the top but not totally inaccurate in the poetic sense. Ocean acidification is a real problem. Saying the world was warmer 12,000 years ago than now is just plain wrong. If you had said "120,000 years ago" it might have been about as warm as now back then. dfw

    44. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Um... sea level has risen about 9 inches in the last hundred years and is forecast to rise about 3 feet by 2100.

    45. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      On major difference in the Eocene (and until around the the current ice age began) was the Isthmus of Panama had not risen yet and there was a connection between the central Pacific and Atlantic oceans. That had profound effects on the climate. dfw

    46. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Let's see... 12000 years ago, was the extinction of the clovis point people, wasn't it? And it coincides, doesn't it, with an iridium layer and ash all over North America? It also coincides with a flash-frozen mammoth in Siberia, doesn't it? It also coincides with great jumbled up masses of bones in Alaska, doesn't it?

      So I reckon they probably had global cooling back then, from a serious asteroid strike, possibly against a glaciated mountain in Alaska, and a reflected plasma blast into the North American continent.

      Way to go, cherry picking your point 12000 years ago.

    47. Re:Gasping by Holi · · Score: 1

      Umm no it hasn't.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_sea_level_rise

      The longest running sea-level measurements are recorded at Amsterdam, in the Netherlands—part of which (about 25%) lies beneath sea level, beginning in 1700.[44] Since 1850, the rise averaged 1.5 mm/year.

      Since when does 1.5mm X 163 = 9 feet

      --
      Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
    48. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Someone else mentioned light, but I'll just add that, having lived a good chunk of my life above 50 degrees latitude, it's become clear to me that peat bog sucks for growing corn.

    49. Re:Gasping by cusco · · Score: 1

      The problem isn't that climate is changing, as you correctly note the climate is always changing and ecosystems always have adapted in the past. The problem is with the speed of change, which is utterly unprecedented in the last 50 million years. Ecosystems generally have centuries to millenia to adapt, not decades.

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    50. Re:Gasping by stdarg · · Score: 1

      "oh well, I was dumb, here I sink, farewell dear world".

      Oh well, I was dumb, my house sank. Got my insurance check. Gonna rebuild inland a few miles.

      Why do you think they would go down with the "ship" so to speak?

      They'll come to YOU and want YOUR home. Whether they get it and kick you out or die trying doesn't really matter much, considering that they have no real option.

      What on Earth.. do you really think that way? You lose your house so you feel entitled to kill others??

    51. Re:Gasping by stenvar · · Score: 1

      Do you have any more such stupid and unscientific analogies?

    52. Re:Gasping by able1234au · · Score: 1

      Plants hovering up the CO2 is a common Denier Myth. Do you have cites for how that works?

      And do we need to release 100% of CO2 before it is a problem? Or are you just trying to spin the argument?

    53. Re:Gasping by able1234au · · Score: 1

      > And they'll do it without killing too many people

      Gee i feel better already

    54. Re:Gasping by khallow · · Score: 1

      For mankind, if you give a rat's ass about that miserable apex predator, perhaps not so much. At 7+ billion annoying human beings (that number must give some marketing people prolonged orgasms) we're crammed up at the edge of carrying capacity of the environment. So it's not going to take much more change to get some (billions) of people in significant trouble.

      Climate happens to be well down the list of things that are going to cause trouble here. Poverty, overpopulation, and a lot of poor practices that are far more destructive than emitting carbon dioxide (such as corruption, pollution, poor water management and farming practices).

      This bothers a lot of tender souls, especially those persons who wonder what happens when large swaths of the equatorial band on the planet become less habitable. You know, that large band where 70% of the planet's human infestation resides. That group of people who might resent being starved and dehydrated to death. Some of those people have heard of the aphorism 'the veneer of civilization is thin, indeed' and wonders what happens when the coating gets scraped off.

      There probably would be a die-off. I don't see addressing the alleged harm of global warming helping prevent that situation. Too much prosperity is dependent on the use of fossil fuels right now. And for all the talk, the alleged problems of global warming just aren't that bad compared to the other problems that humanity has.

    55. Re:Gasping by able1234au · · Score: 1

      In this we can set the outer bound of acceptable conditions

      Symbolset, are you saying that somehow we can control the increase in temperature? that we can just stop it when it is acceptable? If so, you truly do not understand the situation we are in. CO2 in the upper atmosphere is the problem and this is long living, possibly for hundreds of years or longer. We are deep doo-doo and not recognising the true extant of the problem is not helping.

      vast swaths of terrain in Russia and Canada are opened for agriculture, but is that good? I don't know.

      This is straight out of the denier playbook and just confirms you are out of touch with the problem. btw, one note, most people live in the areas that would be affected by a +6C temperature shift. Will the canadians and russians open the door to a couple of billion people? and as noted above just because it is warmer does not make this a new breadbasket. I am not a fan of hyperbole but it is hard to see much upside in these changes.

    56. Re:Gasping by khallow · · Score: 1

      Plants hovering up the CO2 is a common Denier Myth. Do you have cites for how that works?

      Well, we wouldn't have an oxygen-rich atmosphere in the first place, if plants weren't hovering CO2. Second, it takes work to separate CO2 from atmosphere. As the concentration of CO2 increases, plants use less work to extract and use CO2.

      As to your link, I find it interesting how much effort is wasted on making up evidence that elevated CO2 levels are bad for plants. For example, a lot of effort goes into claiming that CO2 can damage plants (linking to a study on the Paleoceneâ"Eocene Thermal Maximum which was a large and sudden release of vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, possibly originally as methane) by increasing insect feeding on plants, but what is ignored is that insect feeding accelerates the replacement of ill-fit plants with more successful ones.

      Plant growth actually increased during that period of time (this article describes some of the fossil record and interprets it as a time of great evolutionary change and mobility of organisms.

    57. Re:Gasping by able1234au · · Score: 1

      thanks for the link. i will read it fully later on. btw, note some of the items in it....

      > Over 10,000 years temperatures rose by as much as 8C

      So 10,000 years for an increase gives a lot more time for adaption. Our temperature increases could be over a much shorter period

      > lasted for around 100,000 years before the additional CO2 was gradually re-absorbed into natural sinks and temperatures fell back to their original levels.

      So, the turnover time for the "natural sinks" to reabsorb the CO2 is a very long time

      > Although earth’s climate has changed many times in the past, the key factor for life on earth has been the speed or rate of change.

      A key difference yet even with this "slower" change ....

      > This was a period of rapid extinctions and adaptations as species struggled to adapt to changing environments while facing fierce competition from migrating species (It’s estimated that of speciation and extinction rates quadrupled.).

      and this document states...

      >The PETM is CO2’s smoking gun, evidence that rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations directly influence earth’s temperature.

      I will give it a more indepth read later on. The point being that it is not simply the case that we don't need to worry about it as the plants will just take up the CO2. They eventually will but not before mass-extinction of species. Also keep in mind how disruptive this would be given the human population, stressed food supplies (eg fish), political issues of mass migration of people etc. Not exactly a smooth reaction of the environment to the issue of rising CO2

    58. Re:Gasping by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      If it's down to "you survive or I survive", what matters is who holds the gun.

      The problem is then that there are more people than there is room for. It's already pretty crowded in most of Europe (I admit, it's less so in the US), but even then it's unpleasant because those insurance companies will not sit on the loss, they'll want their money back. Take a wild guess who gets to pay.

      Not to mention that it's almost certain that the government will pump a few millions towards the coast as "aid". Your tax money at work.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    59. Re:Gasping by khallow · · Score: 1

      So 10,000 years for an increase gives a lot more time for adaption. Our temperature increases could be over a much shorter period

      Or it might never even come close. There's too much speculation and not enough fact.

      So, the turnover time for the "natural sinks" to reabsorb the CO2 is a very long time

      Or carbon dioxide content didn't drive the end of the period. But as I remarked, that is evidence that plant growth does in natural environments increase in the presence of higher levels of carbon dioxide.

      The point being that it is not simply the case that we don't need to worry about it as the plants will just take up the CO2. They eventually will but not before mass-extinction of species.

      So what? My take is that there will that mass extinction of species not matter if there is substantial global warming or not due to habitat destruction and possibly social breakdown during human die-offs.

      Also keep in mind how disruptive this would be given the human population, stressed food supplies (eg fish), political issues of mass migration of people etc.

      There's no evidence that global warming is going to be significantly disruptive to human populations compared to the usual problems, particularly among the human populations who would be inclined to do anything about global warming. For example, two alleged benefits are access to land in the far North and navigability of the Arctic Ocean. The latter would be a significant boost to global trade which I think would outweigh the modest increases in sea level. And both affect the relatively affluent Northern hemisphere more.

      The whole point of my entry into this thread was that global warming was blamed for mass extinction even though the most important factors in that have nothing to do with global warming. In addition to habitat destruction, you have zoos and the fact that fossil-based observation of extinction is vastly different than modern observation (this results in a tendency to underplay the severity of past mass extinction events compared to now). Human harm wasn't even considered at the time.

      This sort of skewed risk analysis is typical of global warming propaganda. There's a huge tendency to blame global warming for large existing factors while downplaying its actual known effects. Sometimes such as in this thread, actual evidence has been ignored or claimed a "myth".

      You won't get China, the US, or India on board with global warming mitigation until you can show clear evidence of great harm. That hasn't been done.

    60. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Gee i feel better already

      You should, because dying as a result of capitalism is usually an unintended and unfortunate event, whereas dying in the name of "doing something" about global warming is usually deliberate

      When a capitalist goes whale hunting, it's not doing it because he's out to get the whales. He may be stupid (in overestimating how much he can sustainably whale), but he's not malicious.

      When Sea Sheppard goes after the whaler, they are deliberately trying to harm the whaler (and/or the whaler's property), and incite terror on other potential whalers. They're being violent aggressors out of malice.

    61. Re:Gasping by minstrelmike · · Score: 1

      The problem is that Deniers see global warming as ideological and the "Warmists" who promote it are going to cost them money.

      What they don't see, and wouldn't care even if they could, is that _change_ means we move our crops to where they will grow best. That means the current agribiz folks lose more money than they would addressing global warming but that loss is decades in the future whereas any current loss due to co2 markets would show up on next quarter's balance sheet.

      We need to cost out that externality real soon to make the economics match reality.

    62. Re:Gasping by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Really you think that? Could be the deniers like me have advanced degrees in geology and spend our careers researching paleoclimate. I suspect your science is somewhat deficient. What was it you studied? Computer science?

    63. Re:Gasping by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      If we had to we could fix that. Fallout would be ugly, but the Darian gap anarchy/FARC base issue would be solved.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    64. Re:Gasping by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Well, some people do care whether other people can survive.

      While not agreeing with symbolset's denialist position, I do agree with him on this point.

      I've thought carefully about where to invest in property ; regarding people who haven't invested that degree of thought have made a mistake : "Just Think Of It As Evolution In Action."

      (And for irony, I'm not even playing the evolutionary game for the rest of the gene pool of Homo sapiens.)

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    65. Re:Gasping by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Or finding someone dumb enough to buy that beach estate.

      "Tough."

      Buying it was your decision. Selling it is your problem. If you'd asked me for my opinion (paid for, of course), then I'd have advised you to not do it if you expected it to be worth anything at all in 50 years time, but even then, I'm not going to take responsibility for you not following my advice.

      Incidentally, if talking like this harms the resale value of your beach property, once more I say "tough."

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    66. Re:Gasping by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Oh well, I was dumb, my house sank. Got my insurance check.

      Better double-check that policy. For years I've been advising anyone I meet in the insurance game to remove those elements of cover. They may have gone one clause at a time over several revisions, or just been dropped completely for new customers. But it's essential for insurance companies to drop those unavoidable costs as soon as possible. Insurance is about playing the probabilities ; if the probability of a payout approaches 1.0, then the annual premium approaches the re-instatement value, or the the insurer stops taking bets (premiums) beyond year "X".

      There has been a lot of fuss about this for people at risk of flooding for rivers for years, increasing in the last few years. And the insurers have been getting a PR caning for it. You can bet that they've been quietly modifying their risk profiles with respect to sea-level rise too. Then again, for many areas (principally in the SE of the country), they've been dealing with sea level rise (isostatically, due to land sinking, not eustatically due to increasing volume of water in the ocean basins) there for decades and know it's inevitable. So they don't insure against it.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  7. Damn Vulcans! by antifoidulus · · Score: 3, Funny

    I knew Dr. Spock was the one that killed the dinosaurs, "Captain, these giant bird-lizards are highly illogical and must be disposed of."

    1. Re:Damn Vulcans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Quick, ready the red black hole material!

    2. Re:Damn Vulcans! by Hognoxious · · Score: 5, Funny

      Dr. Spock was the one that killed the dinosaurs

      Over-zealous potty training can be lethal.

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    3. Re:Damn Vulcans! by Spy+Handler · · Score: 1

      Spock dropped out of graduate school to join Starfleet and never completed his Ph.D. Therefore it is illogical to call him Dr.

    4. Re:Damn Vulcans! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Spock completed his thesis on the Enterprise: Handsome Human Starship Captains and the Aliens who Love them.

      He went a long way for his research.

    5. Re:Damn Vulcans! by T.E.D. · · Score: 1

      Yes. When he starting reccomending dino parents quit spanking as a punishment, they were forced to do "timeouts" instead. However, lacking wristwatches, they didn't know to let the kids back up, and they all starved to death.

  8. Planet-wide Hydrogen Sulfide poisening by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Search Amazon for the book "Hubris Ark" by William Bradford Cushman

  9. This is relatively good news. by dr2chase · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Given that we show every sign of running the CO2-enhancement experiment to completion, it is reassuring to know that this low-probability but extremely-high-cost outcome is that much more unlikely. (To my warmist comrades -- given a choice between losing a toe, a leg, or a life, we know which choice we would most want to avoid, but that does not mean the remaining choices are good. Anoxia is among the worst of the outcomes, far worse than the middle of the US becoming uninhabitable or the seas rising 100 feet. And to you denier bozos -- greenhouse science is cut-and-dried stuff, with only the detailed outcomes unclear, but it's also clear that between natural human greed and your foolish efforts, we will almost certainly burn all the fossil fuels we can until something truly alarming occurs. Perhaps we have overestimated the effects of the current CO2 levels -- but that's okay, we're just going to keep on burning it till we see an effect, and a big and unambiguous one.)

    1. Re:This is relatively good news. by GodfatherofSoul · · Score: 1, Insightful

      we're just going to keep on burning it till we see an effect, and a big and unambiguous one.

      No, we're seeing effects already. We're going to keep burning it until the devil is knocking at the door, then the skeptics will be the ones screaming the loudest about how they're new solution is the best.

      --
      I swear to God...I swear to God! That is NOT how you treat your human!
    2. Re:This is relatively good news. by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

      We're going to keep burning it until the devil is knocking at the door

      We're going to burn until we run out of fuel. If we get some disaster before that, we'll just burn more fuel to cope with it (what'll probably involve shooting people and throwing bombs around) untill we have no other option available.

      Global Warming is not the kind of disaster humans can deal with.

    3. Re:This is relatively good news. by Hentes · · Score: 2

      Anoxia was never a possibility. The majority of fossil reserves is unexploitable. Even if we cut down all forests and burned everything we found, there's way too much oxygen in the air for it to make a difference.

    4. Re:This is relatively good news. by dr2chase · · Score: 1

      It's not a simple use-all-oxygen-burning-fuel anoxia -- it is a bad interaction with ocean circulation, chemistry, and biology: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anoxic_event .

    5. Re:This is relatively good news. by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Sadly, I suspect that you're right.

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
  10. Don't care actually by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't care actually, I just bought a new car with a big engine.

    Why?

    Because I don't have children and I don't love your kids or your grand-kids.

    And I am laughing and you ignorant deniers, because you're the ones whose kids are going to suffer.

  11. Read the headline too fast ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Thought it said "Global Anorexia Ruled Out ..." and thought, "The late Permian has fashion models?"

  12. Global Anoxia? by Jeremiah+Cornelius · · Score: 1, Troll

    Just eat a sammich, Girl!

    --
    "Flyin' in just a sweet place,
    Never been known to fail..."
  13. Think of the life forms by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We worry about the impact of the loss of single species, think of the impact on the ecosystem of species losses on this scale.

    I am still trying to gasp that.

    RK

  14. Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by Burz · · Score: 1

    "Many vertebrate species would have to evolve about 10,000 times faster than they have in the past to adapt to the rapid climate change expected in the next 100 years, a study led by a University of Arizona ecologist has found."

    The rate of change we are facing could put more than half of all species in danger of extinction. And because this rate of change is so unnaturally fast (unprecedented), this assessment is more than likely "conservative" (i.e. erring on the side of irresponsibility so as not to appear "alarmist"). You may want to read Prof. Peter Ward's book on greenhouse extinction events, "Under A Green Sky".

    Incidentally, the Great Dying wiped out about 90% of all life (by biomass). What TFA indicates is that the alternative theory that the event was driven by a change in the ocean is probably untrue; The extinction event was probably driven by the release of greenhouse gasses which had the side effect of changing most of the ocean chemistry.

    1. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by stenvar · · Score: 1

      There are lots of things wrong with that analysis. It assumes that species only adapt to climate change by evolution, but they can adapt by migration. It confuses global mean temperature changes with local changes. And the rate of evolution is not fixed, it is driven by environmental change: more change means a faster rate of evolution. In fact, extinctions are a primary driver of evolution. In addition, for millions of years now, every 100000 years, global mean temperatures change by about 3-4C in a few thousand years, and over large regions, they change by 10C or more in a few thousand years with regularity; if the bleak picture you paint, we'd have one mass extinction after another.

      As for the P-Tr extinction event, nobody knows what caused it or how it relates to climate change. There have been many rapid changes in temperature and rapid changes in CO2 in earth's history, and some correlate with massive extinction events, others appear not to. Picking mass extinctions out of the biological record and using them in climate change arguments is dishonest and unscientific.

      Finally, you make the usual implicit error of people who propose action on climate change, namely you assume that this is under our control and that the best course of action is to control it. There isn't a governmental power in the world to keep places like China and India from burning fossil fuels or to keep the population from increasing; what can stop carbon emissions and population growth is technological and economic advances, precisely the things that the economic interventions proposed by global warming activists threaten.

    2. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by Burz · · Score: 1

      You didn't read/comprehend the article, and you have no concrete data to support your position.

      In any case, we do have new technologies to deal with the problem but any expectations they (would have to) fit comfortably into the old industrial-consumer framework is misguided.

      what can stop carbon emissions and population growth is technological and economic advances, precisely the things that the economic interventions proposed by global warming activists threaten.

      Ah, the old 'allow industry to keep doing its thing because environmentalists are the real problem' spiel; A brilliant twist on denialism.

    3. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by stenvar · · Score: 1

      You didn't read/comprehend the article, and you have no concrete data to support your position.

      No, I'm afraid you didn't comprehend the article and lack the background to interpret it.

      You apparently don't even understand scientific writing: "Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species." The phrasing "despite many caveats, our results suggest" doesn't mean "we have shown...", it means "if we make a whole bunch of other unsupported assumptions, maybe...".

      Ah, the old 'allow industry to keep doing its thing because environmentalists are the real problem' spiel; A brilliant twist on denialism.

      Ah, the classic left wing approach to trying to paint economics as good-people-vs-bad-corporations.

      This isn't about "allowing industry" to do anything, it's about not destroying the global economy, the economy that we need to grow in order to be able to make the changes that we need to make in order to reduce population growth and carbon emissions.

    4. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by Burz · · Score: 1

      The phrasing "despite many caveats, our results suggest" doesn't mean "we have shown...", it means "if we make a whole bunch of other unsupported assumptions, maybe...".

      Well that's an interesting interpretation, from a person who confuses inter-glacial temperature change over many millennia with a similar number of degrees toward a global hothouse over a few hundred years.

      'Caveats' likely means possibly-mitigating factors that they considered but which didn't negate their hypothesis. I have never seen the term "caveats" used to mean "unsupported assumptions" in a scientific paper (that would be setting themselves up for quick dismissal, which is no way to get published) especially when the word is bracketed by "our results are striking" and an evolutionary shortfall x 10,000 when even a factor of 2 or 20 would be considered worrisome.

      In fact, they discuss the caveats in the appendices.

      Normally, it would be kind of weird to debate this study and encounter dismissals like those you've set out. 'Didn't take migration into account'-- Really?? The paper is based on data about species that reach back into the geologic past. And I never expected to see a disclaimer along the lines of 'We narrowed our examination to species known for their immobility'. IOW, over time those creatures moved however they could to try to adapt.

      However, in this case its not weird when you clearly didn't consider the study in good faith and instead attacked it with whatever cheap shots came to mind. No doubt its a familiar attitude to just about anyone reading this, the compulsion to misuse good diction to try to reframe an issue in accordance with market fundamentalism (which, embarrassingly enough, seems married to religious fundamentalism once again... both traditions devoted as they are to producing 'teaming masses').

      As for the trend in scientific outlook, here is a sample:
      http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/0106/Climate-change-models-flawed-extinction-rate-likely-higher-than-predicted
      http://www.livescience.com/16307-climate-path-migration-amphibian.html
      http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v427/n6970/full/nature02121.html
      http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1876.html
      http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/biodiversity/elements_of_biodiversity/extinction_crisis/

      Ah, the classic left wing approach to trying to paint economics as good-people-vs-bad-corporations. This isn't about "allowing industry" to do anything, it's about not destroying the global economy, the economy that we need to grow in order to be able to make the changes that we need to make in order to reduce population growth and carbon emissions.

      Throwing what you get from people back at them (sans data) in reverse is not considered clever anymore. Empty homilies laden with unsupported assumptions (economics>ecology, regulation destroys the economy, etc.) are also unconstructive. Try some humility next time you have the urge to paint an opposing viewpoint as "stupid and unscientific", because the 'more CO2 = good' line you were towing is in fact an Exxon / Koch funded talking point modeled on the "smoking is healthy" propaganda the tobacco industry tried to put across-- you've fallen for their rank denialism.

    5. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by stenvar · · Score: 1

      The relevant phrase here isn't "caveats", the relevant phrase is "suggests". I'm sorry, but you're obviously too scientifically illiterate to even discuss this any further.

    6. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by Burz · · Score: 1

      The relevant phrase here isn't "caveats", the relevant phrase is "suggests". I'm sorry, but you're obviously too scientifically illiterate to even discuss this any further.

      You should take a look in the mirror when making that accusation. A great many (if not most) scientific papers use just that term to claim that the data supports their theory.

      Trolling for the denier position that complete certainty is required before an idea can be considered credible... That is not how science works, and I think its telling how you're been arguing here without references.

    7. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by stenvar · · Score: 1

      A great many (if not most) scientific papers use just that term to claim that the data supports their theory.

      Indeed, a great many scientific papers use the phrase. And they deliberately use "suggest" instead of "prove", "disprove" or "support" when the data isn't good enough to use those stronger phrases. "Suggests" is little more than the author's opinion.

      That is not how science works, and I think its telling how you're been arguing here without references.

      The way science works is through many repeated experiments and many different hypotheses being tested. We accept scientific theories only if they have stood numerous attempts at falsification. A single suggestive result based on a genetic analysis does not establish scientific truth or fact.

      and I think its telling how you're been arguing here without references.

      We're analyzing a reference you gave, and that reference doesn't show what you purport it to show because you apparently don't even know how to read a scientific paper. My references aren't relevant to pointing out that you can't even read yours.

      Trolling for the denier position

      I don't "deny" global warming; global warming is an established fact. I "deny" that there is sufficient evidence or agreement for negative consequences to warrant political and economic intervention.

    8. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by Burz · · Score: 1

      And you missed the other studies I linked to, apparently.

      I "deny" that there is sufficient evidence or agreement for negative consequences to warrant political and economic intervention.

      That is still one of the recognized denier tactics (the label is especially apt when arguing from a "scientific", hence "informed", viewpoint). The consensus is farther along than you will admit because you largely ignore/reject ecology.

      It is your camp of buffoons that must prove the economic status quo is more deserving of the Precautionary Principle (of uncertain or unintended consequences) than is the entire web of life.

    9. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And you missed the other studies I linked to, apparently.

      Citing other studies doesn't rectify your errors in interpreting this specific study.

      That is still one of the recognized denier tactics (the label is especially apt when arguing from a "scientific", hence "informed", viewpoint). The consensus is farther along than you will admit because you largely ignore/reject ecology.

      Another way in which you are unscientific: you think of positions in terms of "deniers", "camps", and "tactics".

    10. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by Burz · · Score: 1

      And you missed the other studies I linked to, apparently.

      Citing other studies doesn't rectify your errors in interpreting this specific study.

      Actually, they do support the first study. Now, you were saying something about " We accept scientific theories only if they have stood numerous attempts at falsification"..? I know you didn't bother reading them, but they all support the idea that rapid climate change leads to high rates of extinction.

      For that matter, AGW reasearch (on temperature) hasn't stated that the theory is "proven" either.

      That is still one of the recognized denier tactics (the label is especially apt when arguing from a "scientific", hence "informed", viewpoint). The consensus is farther along than you will admit because you largely ignore/reject ecology.

      Another way in which you are unscientific: you think of positions in terms of "deniers", "camps", and "tactics".

      You were the one who pointed the finger at "global warming activists". In any case, its clear this discussion involves politics and economics in addition to science... at least, those are the parameters you invoked earlier.

    11. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by stenvar · · Score: 1

      You were the one who pointed the finger at "global warming activists".

      "Global warming activists" is an identity that many identify with. "Deniers" is a fictitious foe and straw man created by global warming activists.

      We accept scientific theories only if they have stood numerous attempts at falsification"..? I know you didn't bother reading them, but they all support the idea that rapid climate change leads to high rates of extinction.

      A lot of the references weren't scientific papers. The ones that were didn't prove what you said they proved. You just don't understand science or scientific papers. This statement also illustrates that:

      However, in this case its not weird when you clearly didn't consider the study in good faith

      In science, you don't consider studies in "good faith", you attack them and pick them apart. Science is supposed to be adversarial. And often only results that survive decades of attacks may begin to be considered sound.

    12. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by Burz · · Score: 1

      Those references had scientific papers behind them, and the one you are attacking you didn't even read (which means you read none, IMO). The methods you are using to attack are rhetorical, twisting a word like "supports" (or lack of a word like "proven") into an accusation of unexamined assumptions. You also misappropriate terminology from climatology to give your rhetoric an air of credibility.

      "Deniers" is a fictitious foe and straw man created by global warming activists.

      Tell that to your grandchildren. Creationists are denying that term as well these days.

    13. Re:Evolution Too Slow For AGW: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The methods you are using to attack are rhetorical, twisting a word like "supports" (or lack of a word like "proven") into an accusation of unexamined assumptions.

      So you are saying we should consider something to be a scientific fact despite the fact that the authors actually say the data only "suggests it". Uh huh, right.

      You also misappropriate terminology from climatology to give your rhetoric an air of credibility.

      How would a semi-literate code monkey like you know?