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Sizing Up the Viral Threat
sciencehabit writes "Ebola, HIV, influenza, MERS. Plenty of animal viruses cause devastating diseases in humans. But nature might have many more in store. In a new study, U.S. researchers estimate that there are more than 320,000 unknown viruses lurking in mammals alone (abstract). Identifying all the viruses in mammals would be a huge boon to scientists and epidemiologists, Daszak says. If an animal virus begins spreading to humans, they could use the new sequences to quickly pinpoint its source. In the lab, they could study the newfound viruses to see which are most likely to jump to humans and then prepare vaccines or drugs, he says. 'It would be the beginning of the end for pandemics.' A complete viral inventory would also carry a hefty price tag: about $6.3 billion, the authors estimate. 'But you have to put that into perspective,' says Daszak, pointing to the 2003 SARS outbreak. That pandemic alone is estimated to have cost between $15 billion and $50 billion in economic losses."
Since most viruses seem to hop from common mammals or birds (cow, pig, chicken, etc. - e.g., "Guns Germs Steel"), have we at least indexed those already?
Do I really need to bore you all with my cat flu story again?
If an animal virus begins spreading to humans, they could use the new sequences to quickly pinpoint its source.
And quickly verify that patient zero was a virologist.
That's all fine and dandy and all, but remember, people are getting so stupid that they think vaccines are more sinister than the viral diseases they can prevent. Lets solve the problem of stupid people first, or just let them all die of measles++.
It's not really a question of if we'll complete such an inventory but when. A few days ago /. ran a story on the myth of STEM human resources being scarce, so it's not like we lack the people or the resources. It's just a question of allocation. Over our short personal lifespans we see so much that should be done and think it should be done ASAP, but really, if you look at the enormous strides we've made in the last 100 years, or more to the point, the last 50 years we've surpassed all previous human eras of progressive achievement. The Renaissance and the Age of Enlightenment pale by comparison.
"A complete viral inventory would also carry a hefty price tag: about $6.3 billion, the authors estimate."
Better hurry, since if we wait 10 or 20 years, that price tag might only be a couple of million. Think of the authors, who have new shoes to buy!
Life's a risk, you live, you die. Society can't handle the costs of current increases to lifetimes. Extending lives is not a de facto good thing.
"National Security is the chief cause of national insecurity." - Celine's First Law
In the lab, they could study the newfound viruses to see which are most likely to jump to humans and then prepare vaccines or drugs, he says. 'It would be the beginning of the end for pandemics.'
No, it would just be yet another volley in the endless war of attrition that is the evolution of species... but I like your optimism.
An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
Hey, I have a great idea. Let spend lots of money because some "scientists" claim to have a count of something they also say is unknown. And lets give them that money to "study the newfound viruses to see which are most likely to jump to humans". I'm sure that could never end up being abused.
I'm an American. I love this country and the freedoms that we used to have.
So when a new disease presents itself we can identify it, sequence it, compare that sequence to a library to find out what animal it probably came from, then use the sequence to make a vaccine.
OR
When a new disease presents itself we can identify it, sequence it, then use the sequence to make a vaccine. It seems like the library only helps to find the animal it originated in, and we don't really seem to have trouble doing that quickly for most of the big, pandemic-causing viruses.
Thats less than a months expenditure for the United States military middle east operations.
They don't call it the Military Industrial Complex for nothing.
46137
Just look at the oceans!. If mammals only host ~3e5 unknown viruses, that's nothing.
Ezekiel 23:20
And that's just the unknown viruses we know about. Who knows how many unknown unknown viruses are lurking?
Taxonomy isn't a field that all scientists wish they could work in.
Good luck trying to get high school science students interested in the concept of biological classification.
SARS in particular I remember as causing border crossings (at least here in North America) to go absolutely apeshit. Between the direct losses of increased staffing and asinine posters (seriously, until it got Suddenly Acute, the only symptoms a lay person could identify were "like a cold") there were huge indirect losses of increased travel time and people simply not bothering to travel.
"Because Science" is one step from "Because old book". Try "Because of my experiment testing my falsifiable assertion".
The GDP of the top 40 nations in 2011 was about 64 trillion.
The smart money isn't on the researchers, because the sheer
numbers alone favor the occurrence of a virus which might just be
the golden bullet in terms of its ability to spread combined with its
morbidity.
And today more than ever, with air travel and international shipping of
things like chicken and meat, the virus has a better chance of finding
new hosts in widespread areas than it ever had before.
The US and other countries WILL regret importing food from China,
mark my words well and remember them when you bury your loved
ones this year, or the next, or the year after that. Thanks to
the idiocy and greed of government everywhere, the probability of a
worldwide pandemic is now down to only a question of when, not if.
The government doesn't import food from China. Corporations do that, because people buy what corporations sell. If there were no government at all, we would still be importing food from China. The greed and idiocy you bemoan are hallmarks of human behavior.
"A complete viral inventory would also carry a hefty price tag: about $6.3 billion"
Who wants to pay for that? Government? Private industry? The Gates Foundation? It's a major gamble for an uncertain reward. When you do the numbers it just doesn't make sense.
Economics aside, the human factor says it should be done. Assuming that ever larger numbers of humans on our planet is desirable. Is this what we want? I, for one, am willing to sacrifice your existence if it leads to a better world.
...omphaloskepsis often...
The government doesn't import food from China.
The government regulates such activities as food imports, you fucking imbecile.
While you were so busy being a pedant with a hilariously unjustified sense of your own superiority,
you missed the point of the hazards of importing things like food from countries which practice very different
standards of sanitation and processing safety.
Should we not worry about chicken from China ? China being the same country which
sent drywall made of hazardous waste and pet food with melamine added to increase the
bulk of the pet food ? It doesn't seem like a good idea to me.
The summary mentions a $6.3 billion cost for this virus inventory. To put that into perspective, that's about the same amount of money that it took to build the new Bay Bridge in California.
"[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz
First we have no idea how many viruses lurk out their(1000s?,millions?) then add in the mutation factor and the numbers go up. Think about it humans are a good food source for some virus out their which still hasn't discovered us. After all look how long it took us to discover the "New World" and what we did to it. Just relax and let nature take its course.