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NASA Inspector General Lobs Big Rocks At Agency's Asteroid Hunting Program

coondoggie writes Lack of money, management structure and staff are hampering NASA's ability to effectively identify and track comets, meteorites and asteroids that might threaten Earth. The space agency's Inspector General, Paul Martin, issued a scathing report this week that said while NASA's Near Earth Object program has done substantial work in identifying the sometimes massive rocks hurtling around the planet it is substantially behind in its goal of cataloging 90% of those 140 meters in diameter by 2020, among other issues.

35 comments

  1. How Big? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Bigger than an asteroid? Because it came to me first, like this to you!

  2. Dum-de-de-dum-dum-dum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Breaking up is hard to do.

  3. Those who wrote report hardly even understand subj by SergeyKurdakov6434 · · Score: 5, Informative

    The report is really full of strange assertions. Say - currently Pan STARRS works full time to search for asteroids, but you won't find this fact in a report. Neither there is a mentions, that it is exactly lack of funds that only multi million private donation provided uninterrupted work of this project few years back. Of cause, someone could be blamed for that. But there is not even mention of that such lack of money, instead it is insisted that there so huge money are spent on search for asteroids. Then, they criticize allocation of funds to Space Surveillance Telescope in Australia. That is true, that there are no mentioned agreements, the trick is that all software for the telescope is developed by just the same team, which received grants from NASA and more - asteroid tracking will not even interference with operation of telescope while performing duties, so agreements might be not an issue after all, because nothing will change in operation of telescope to enable it to look for asteroids. And what is important - this telescope will be most powerful asteroid tracking telescope. So was it a good idea to spend money on it? I would say yes. For authors it is really no. so we have a situation that someone wants to show who is boss here. But unfortunately, those pretending to be bosses look more like idiots.

  4. Re:Those who wrote report hardly even understand s by SergeyKurdakov6434 · · Score: 4, Informative

    then, there are papers which estimate when asteroids will be found by, for example Pan STARRS, say one Pan STARRS telescope will find 90% 200+ asteroids in 12 years. On another hand, even Large Synoptic Survey Telescope won't find 90% 140+ meters asteroids for 10 years, depending on mode of operation this might take 15-17 years, and LSST will cost about 500 million dollars. So basically speaking - there is no much room for 'programs' - either have another Pan STARRS somewhere in Chile or Australia ( will add 20% to speed of detection ) or build LSST or launch satellite. That is a program. Of cause, bunch of small telescopes might be useful, but in fact after finding all huge asteroids - they will be finding nothing. so again - only hot air from those who have very basic grasp of fact concerning asteroid tracking.

  5. 90% by Thanshin · · Score: 1

    Clearing 90% of an extremely rare but potentially apocalyptic event.

    "We're happy to report that, with this program, of all the meteorites that would destroy Earth in the next century, only one in ten will end humanity."

    1. Re:90% by SergeyKurdakov6434 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      140 meters asteroid won't end humanity. As for 1 km asteroids they all will be found before 90% 140+ meters asteroids goal. Compare now 10% of all 140+ meter asteroids are known and 95% of all 1 km asteroids are known. So 90% 140+ asteroids mean 100% for all 300+ meters asteroids

    2. Re:90% by Gr8Apes · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Compare now 10% of all 140+ meter asteroids are known and 95% of all 1 km asteroids are known. So 90% 140+ asteroids mean 100% for all 300+ meters asteroids

      How on earth (pun intended) can you know that you've found 10% or 95% of anything that you don't know the full set of?

      Note also that most of these efforts looks at the plane of the solar system, what about extra-planar objects? Granted, most of those are comets, but then again, comets can be big too.

      --
      The cesspool just got a check and balance.
    3. Re:90% by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1
      What is more, they must already know all of the asteroids out there. They have to.

      Otherwise, how would they know when they get to cataloging 90 percent of them You can't catalog 90 percent of a group unless you know what 100 percent of that group is. Because then............... oh hell, you get my point.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    4. Re:90% by White+Elk · · Score: 1

      They estimate based on what is known.

    5. Re:90% by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What is more, they must already know all of the asteroids out there. They have to.

      You might be unaware of this thing called "statistical sampling"

    6. Re:90% by itzly · · Score: 1

      We know that nothing big has hit the earth for 65 million years, and we can also look further back. That gives us an idea of the probabilities. All in all, it's much more likely you'll get hit by a car than by a asteroid.

    7. Re:90% by SergeyKurdakov6434 · · Score: 1

      how? easy.

      Build model and verify it with available data. There could be some errors, but not much. If model holds for 10 years of new asteroids found - it is good enough.

    8. Re:90% by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1
      Whoosh.

      But former president Bush might ask "What if they misunderestimated?"

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    9. Re:90% by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 1

      What is more, they must already know all of the asteroids out there. They have to.

      You might be unaware of this thing called "statistical sampling"

      I'm quite aware of it. I was making admittedly lame humor.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
    10. Re:90% by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The reason for looking principally in the ecliptic is simply that the vast majority of material is observed to be orbiting within a few degrees of it, and there are good theoretical reasons to back this up (Protoplanetary disks are "cold", temperature << orbital angular momentum, and therefore thin).

      Not, of course, to say that there isn't material at high inclinations, but for N-body processes to shift things into polar orbits generally carries a price. Particularly, a 3-body conservation integral means high inclination is associated with very high eccentricity, so the objects will spend 99% of their orbits distant, dim and slow-moving.

    11. Re:90% by david_thornley · · Score: 2

      Figure out how you're scanning for things, and the probabilities of finding things if they're there. Then keep track of what you find, and watch the numbers of new things you find. From that, you should come up with an estimate as to how many things are findable by whatever technique you're using. For example, if you were checking fish in a lake by scooping up quantities at random, marking them somehow, and counting the unmarked ones, over time you'd get fewer and fewer unmarked, and you could use that to estimate fish population.

      Of course, all this can tell you is about how many things are findable by the techniques you're using. If you're just scanning around the Ecliptic, you're not getting an estimation for how many things are in a different orbit.

      I don't know if they're using this technique, but it is possible.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  6. re by plan-cul · · Score: 1

    Very interesting !

  7. Re: Heard this one? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's how Slashdot sold out and turned from news for nerds to flamebait headlines designed to attract idiots and increase advertising revenue.

  8. NASA behind schedule??? by NotDrWho · · Score: 1

    Yeah, right. Next you'll be telling me that we're not going to be putting a man on Mars in 2035.

    --
    SJW's don't eliminate discrimination. They just expropriate it for themselves.
  9. Let them come! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    One asteroid strikes onto any major US city and they'll restart everything and allocate all the money!

  10. Tracking meteorites makes no sense... by TheRedWheelbarrow · · Score: 3, Informative

    since they have already impacted the Earth and done their damage. You want to track meteoroids which are still in space and may be susceptible to intervention.

  11. Pay Dirt by White+Elk · · Score: 1

    Cataloging for purpose of collision prevention (of spacecraft and planet) is all well and good. But perhaps the added motivation of profit will be required. Eventually we will get up there and start mining those things. i'd like to see this happen sooner than later. Why mine rare resource from the earth, and damage planet in the process, when we have all those rich rocks floating around in space. We'll need cleaner method to reach and return from orbit, but there are numerous methods already proposed. It seems we lack will, but perhaps mostly we just favor war too much to invest in these things.

  12. Re:Those who wrote report hardly even understand s by UnknowingFool · · Score: 4, Interesting

    currently Pan STARRS works full time to search for asteroids, but you won't find this fact in a report.

    But that's not the assertion the report makes. The report does not say that there are no programs and people working on the problem. The report is saying that the current efforts and projected efforts will not be enough to meet the 90% goal by 2020 given that only 10% of the estimated target asteroids have been found.

    But there is not even mention of that such lack of money, instead it is insisted that there so huge money are spent on search for asteroids.

    Funding is one aspect; however, the report also asserts that even if the budget were increased significantly the current program's structure will probably not be efficient enough to take advantage of increases and recommends a change in management structure.

    Then, they criticize allocation of funds to Space Surveillance Telescope in Australia. That is true, that there are no mentioned agreements, the trick is that all software for the telescope is developed by just the same team, which received grants from NASA and more - asteroid tracking will not even interference with operation of telescope while performing duties, so agreements might be not an issue after all, because nothing will change in operation of telescope to enable it to look for asteroids.

    The problem is not who is developing the software or how effective it is. The problem is the SST will be in Australia's hands and no agreement is in place for time on the telescope. While the future administrators might be friendly to the NEO program, there are no guaranteed time allocation (in writing). The criticism is that NASA should not have granted the money without some sort of formal agreement or plan for after the transfer. Just like any contract: get it in writing.

    And what is important - this telescope will be most powerful asteroid tracking telescope.

    Which makes it even more important that NASA get some sort of agreement about how much time the NEO program will get. It's not like powerful telescopes are easily obtained at your local grocery store.

    So was it a good idea to spend money on it? I would say yes. For authors it is really no.

    That's not what the authors are saying. They are not saying the money should not have been spent. They are saying that NASA made a terrible deal because they essentially gave money away with little assurances that they get anything in return. It's not like NASA is just swimming in excess money. NASA's budget is always under pressure to do more with less.

    so we have a situation that someone wants to show who is boss here. But unfortunately, those pretending to be bosses look more like idiots.

    No we have an inspector general doing their job: oversight.

    --
    Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
  13. And the same is true for alien weapon research by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

    "Lack of money, management structure and staff are hampering NASA's ability to effectively identify and track comets, meteorites and asteroids that might threaten Earth"

    Oh god, who cares? If it's going to hit it's going to hit, end of story. It hasn't happened since we knew what asteroids were, and it didn't happen for the millions of years where we didn't, so it appears knowing one way or the other has no bearing on the outcome.

    What a waste of time and effort. Trust me, if there's a big one and it's going to hit, you'll know. It will be the ever-brightening dot in the sky that doesn't seem to move day to day.

    1. Re:And the same is true for alien weapon research by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      While your fatalism and resignation are appreciated, the rest of us would prefer to know long enough in advance to try something (and anything so big there's no point, we've already catalogued).

      Also, objects on an impact trajectory with Earth will not hold a constant angular position in the sky. This is only true for objects travelling in straight lines. An obvious example is a craft on a Hohmann return trajectory from a distant outer orbit - we will see its angular bearing flutter for most of the trip (as its position is relatively fixed) until it is near.

  14. Re:Stop Researching Climate Change by White+Elk · · Score: 2

    If the usa would curb corruption we'd find all sorts of monies with which to do a great many useful things. Climate Change research being something critical. The drought in California alone being something which has significant global impact right now. We must know how this changing weather will impact our ability to farm food and obtain fresh water, ++. Nothing political about that. The political side of climate change does not change the facts of its occurrence.

  15. Re:Those who wrote report hardly even understand s by SergeyKurdakov6434 · · Score: 2

    The report is saying that the current efforts and projected efforts will not be enough to meet the 90% goal by 2020 given that only 10% of the estimated target asteroids have been found.

    this is pretty much known to everybody. Exactly only telescopes in space or LSST could perform task and they are scheduled to be launched in 20s - so after 2020

    given that only 10% of the estimated target asteroids have been found.

    the thing is that more than 70% of 300m asteroids are found, about 90% of 500m are found and 95% of 1km and larger are found, so 10% are more about most small asteroids ( and again there is no fault of NASA in that - there are just no money from congress to build LSST now )

    Funding is one aspect; however, the report also asserts that even if the budget were increased significantly the current program's structure will probably not be efficient enough to take advantage of increases and recommends a change in management structure.

    it does not depend on structure at all.
    Either launch neocam satellite or build LSST - and structure could keep to work just fine. But any number of small telescopes won't make any difference

  16. How about by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    More money for NASA in general. All NASA programs are suffering across the board. Lack of funding is why we haven't had a human leave near earth orbit in 45 years.

    1. Re:How about by gumbi+west · · Score: 1

      Yes, and then there is the question of why I might care about that. Well, except to note that LEO was also no that valuable.

  17. Paraphrasing myself the other day by Mister+Liberty · · Score: 1

    Try to bring funders' attention to the destructive element of Near-Erth Objects.
    Maybe even the A-challenged NSA and their apologists then might become interested in slushing some of the NSA's allotment
    to the amount of 52 billion (52,000,000,000) dollars towards this NASA program.

  18. Re:Stop Researching Climate Change by drfred79 · · Score: 1

    Proving it exists or researching adaptability are not the purview of NASA.

  19. Re:Stop Researching Climate Change by White+Elk · · Score: 1

    NASA has tools to monitor climate. That is all i would want NASA to do, monitor.