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Airbus Unveils Its First Stage Reuseability Concept

schwit1 writes: The competition heats up: Airbus unveiled Friday its prototype design to recover and reuse the engines and avionics of its Ariane rockets. From the article: "The Airbus team concluded that SpaceX's design of returning the full stage to Earth could be simplified by separating the propulsion bay from the rest of the stage, protecting the motor on reentry and, using the winglets and turbofans, return horizontally to a conventional air strip. "We are using an aerodynamic shield so that the motor is not subjected to such high stress on reentry," [technical director Herve] Gilibert said. "We need very little fuel for the turbofans and the performance penalty we pay for the Ariane 6 launcher is far less than the 30 percent or more performance penalty that SpaceX pays for the reusable Falcon 9 first stage." Gee, for decades Arianespace and Boeing and Lockheed Martin and everyone else in the launch industry insisted it made no economic sense to try to recover and reuse the first stage of their rockets. Then SpaceX comes along and makes an effort to do so, without as yet even coming close, and suddenly everyone agrees it is economically essential to do it as well. Isn't competition wonderful?

100 comments

  1. It does make economic sense by wbr1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Why reuse something when you can trick governments to pay for it again. That make perfect economic sense until someone reveals the fraud.

    --
    Silence is a state of mime.
    1. Re: It does make economic sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Especially considering that the one thing that Airbus is good at is extracting money from governments by being horribly inefficient and costly.

    2. Re: It does make economic sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Still better than Boeing who do the same but always need wars to be waged to do it.

    3. Re: It does make economic sense by ArcadeMan · · Score: 1

      Something, Something, Something, Lockheed Martin.

    4. Re: It does make economic sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

      If rather fly in a Boeing than an Airbus. Maybe all of the senseless mass murdering refines their engineering process.

    5. Re: It does make economic sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And your arguments to prove that are.... ?

    6. Re: It does make economic sense by Rob+Riggs · · Score: 2

      Something, Something, Something, Lockheed Martin.

      That would be "in a monopoly venture with Boeing in ULA", gaming the system to extract more money from Uncle Sam.

      --
      the growth in cynicism and rebellion has not been without cause
    7. Re:It does make economic sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ah, but airbus is essentially a government owned corporation, or more correctly owned by several european governments, so think of them more like nasa that also happens to build and sell commercial aircraft.

    8. Re:It does make economic sense by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 1

      Why reuse something when you can trick governments to pay for it again. ...

      On the other hand, reused space vehicle components have caused some problems in the past.

      --
      It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
    9. Re:It does make economic sense by sjames · · Score: 1

      Neither of those was due to a reused component.

    10. Re:It does make economic sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Challenger was due to a re-used component. The solid rocket boosters were recovered and re-used for the shuttles. A joint on one of the segments of the shuttle solid rocket booster was responsible for the disaster.

    11. Re: It does make economic sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Are you dense? Challenger happened because the suits at NASA went with the launch despite temperatures well below SRB specifications. Suits also pushed for segmented SRBs that had this failure mode, even though it wasn't the best engineering or financial decision.

    12. Re:It does make economic sense by sjames · · Score: 2

      The failure was in the O-ring seal, a freshly made joint. The O-ring itself was in good condition other than being colder than it was rated for.

  2. Video at bottom of article. by taiwanjohn · · Score: 3, Informative

    If you just want to see how it works, scroll down to the video at the end. They don't really explain it very well in the text.

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  3. "without coming close" is false by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The idea that SpaceX "did not even come close" is ridiculous. It was the FIRST to operate on the principle that it was practical, and has twice now come very close to getting it done. In only... what... 4 tries? On a target far smaller than the continents aimed at by Russia and EU?

    I find this whole announcement to be saying: "Yeah, us too! Maybe a few years from now."

    1. Re:"without coming close" is false by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Informative

      No, it wasn't the first, no matter how many capitals you use, Elon.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...

      You weren't even the first private developer of space vehicles.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      You're a few decades late to that party.

      And this is so insane I wouldn't be surprised you're collecting your urine in jars and getting the help to order cases of peanut butter.

      http://www.spacex.com/news/201...

      Yes, a reusable tin can that blows its load getting a few pounds of Tang to Low Earth Orbit is the "key to making human life interplanetary".

      Yup. Uh huh.

    2. Re:"without coming close" is false by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 2
      Who the fuck are you talking to (I am not "Elon")?

      Who said anything about something being FIRST? I wrote that it was the first PRACTICAL return stage. Different thing, man.

      Who said anything about first private space vehicles? (Oops... I guess YOU did.)

      But... um, no. You're the only one who did. Not me. Nothing to discuss.

      And this is so insane I wouldn't be surprised you're collecting your urine in jars and getting the help to order cases of peanut butter.

      http://www.spacex.com/news/201...

      Uh... okay, pal. But you're the only one talking about this stuff here. Not us.

    3. Re:"without coming close" is false by sribe · · Score: 1

      No, it wasn't the first, no matter how many capitals you use, Elon.

      Oh, bullshit! From the article you linked: The DC-X was never designed to achieve orbital altitudes or velocity, but instead to demonstrate the concept...

    4. Re:"without coming close" is false by taiwanjohn · · Score: 2

      I wrote that it was the first PRACTICAL return stage. Different thing, man.

      No, you said they were first to "operate on the principle that it was practical," which allows both of you to be right on this point. Surely the folks at McDonnell were operating on the principle that it was practical, they just couldn't find a way to make it work, because single-stage-to-orbit is really f-ing hard, perhaps not even possible with chemical rockets. It was the shuttle era, and they were trying to make what everyone wanted the shuttle to be, a SSTO "space plane" just like Buck Rogers.

      Elon had the insight that Von Braun's Saturn V was pretty close to an ideal design for its time, and upgrading it to modern technology would provide enough extra payload capacity to make reusability possible. You didn't need a new kind of vehicle, just an evolution of the tried and true, with legs.

      In the near term, major players like ULA and Arianespace will stay afloat on long term contracts already in the pipeline, and political inertia will keep them going after that. But the best news for them is that SpaceX simply can't make rockets fast enough to meet the demand. On the down side, once they figure out how to reuse them, they'll start to decouple their launch capacity from their production capacity. And they're not the only ones. There are several dozen other companies offering launch services in the next few years. Most are still in development, but many have already built and tested engines and other components.

      There are basically 4 or 5 launch providers on the open market (depending on how you count, more if you include India, Iran, NK, etc). That number is likely to double or triple in the next five years or so. And they will serve a wide range of needs. Several are focusing on small payloads in the few-hundred Kg range, while some others offer heavy-duty versions of the Spaceship One/White Knight configuration, emphasizing the convenience of launching from high altitude: "Any orbit, anytime!" is the slogan of one of them (Stratolaunch, I think). And there are others focused on various niches of the market.

      Point is, the space market is going to get a lot busier in the next few years, and the dinosaurs like ULA are going to be in a heap of trouble if they don't start adapting right quick. They are not stupid. They can see this too, which is why we see this shiny new concept from Arianespace and the recent Vulcan announcement from ULA. They know if they want to still have a meal ticket in 10 years, they'd better stay in the game.

      Question is, can they pull it off, or is their inherent bureaucratic structure impervious to change because it's joined at the hip with the political establishment? Only time will tell.

      --
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    5. Re:"without coming close" is false by taiwanjohn · · Score: 2

      ""The DC-X, short for Delta Clipper ... was an unmanned prototype of a reusable single-stage-to-orbit launch vehicle built by McDonnell Douglas in conjunction with the United States Department of Defense's Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) from 1991 to 1993. Starting 1994 until 1995, testing continued through funding of the US civil space agency NASA.[1] In 1996, the DC-X technology was completely transferred to NASA, which upgraded the design for improved performance to create the DC-XA."" [wikipedia]

      The DC-X was a prototype intended to develop a SSTO vehicle.

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    6. Re:"without coming close" is false by thrich81 · · Score: 2

      I never got the point of the DC-X. Chemical fuels never got and can't get significantly better than LOX/LH2 so the whole single stage to orbit thing is pretty much ruled out by mathematics, especially on some conventional looking vehicle like the DC-X or a related follow on. The contemporaneous (to the DC-X) NASP X-30 program looked like it had about the best possible chance of becoming a SSTO vehicle and it didn't go anywhere (literally). SSTO with chemical fuels is a pipe dream, the late-20th century version of perpetual motion. Even if someone could cobble something which limped into low earth orbit, it would have no payload.

    7. Re:"without coming close" is false by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

      McDonnell didn't get their full-scale vehicle funded. The subscale worked just fine. In fact it worked to well that NASA decided it wasn't complicated and risky enough so they did the X-33. Which was total failure.

    8. Re:"without coming close" is false by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      The DC-X is akin to something like Grasshopper. It wasn't designed to withstand orbital reentry speeds which a wholly different ball of wax.

    9. Re:"without coming close" is false by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      The SSME has (barely) enough performance to do it.

      You could easily conceive something with even better performance than the SSME with chemical engines e.g. LOX/Slush LH2, TAN nozzle, etc.

    10. Re:"without coming close" is false by kellymcdonald78 · · Score: 1

      DC-X was a prototype to validate certain technologies and approaches that could potentially be used to build an actual SSTO (which would have been DC-Y)

    11. Re:"without coming close" is false by thrich81 · · Score: 1

      Interesting link there, thanks. I've read of other rockets which are almost SSTO (Titan II seems to comes to mind, but I can't back that up, and that sounds even more unlikely given the fuels it uses). So the question remains -- why hasn't somebody done it, at least as a demonstration? There no longer seems to even be any serious attempts as there were in the 90s. I would much rather have seen NASA spend money on a one shot SSTO demo than that lame single stick SRB launch for Constellation. I am left with an apparent contradiction here.

    12. Re:"without coming close" is false by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

      One issue is that the payload of an SSTO is going to be small compared to the size of the vehicle. One can think of using it to carry people or small payloads but making it big enough to launch a comsat or whatever is going to require a much larger vehicle than the ones we are used to. You saw his example with the Shuttle ET. It used 6 SSME engines. The actual Space Shuttle only uses 3 engines.

      The other issue is how to recover the vehicle. This is what they were trying to demonstrate with the Douglas DC-X. That you could reliably recover a rocket using powered assists with modern computer flight control avionics. Some people back then just assumed it couldn't be done in an automated fashion. Prior state-of-the-art experience in something like this would be something like the Lunar Lander Module which was certainly not easy to land at all and that environment was a lot more benign than Earth reentry from orbital velocity. Even if you got the avionics on how to do the recovery right then you have thermal protection issues when doing reentry at those kinds of speeds. It is easier to do the thermal shield for a first stage in a TSTO vehicle because it never actually goes to orbital velocity. Most of the people who studied this think it is a lot more cost effective to do a TSTO than a SSTO with current technology even if its possible (barely) to do a SSTO with current technology.

      If you want to look at someone attempting to do these kinds of SSTO VTVL experiments right now you just have to look at the Blue Origin vehicles.

      SpaceX uses a more pragmatic approach to the problem where they try to augment a conventional TSTO with RLV technology with minimal payload loss. This is more challenging for several aspects but allows them to incrementally develop the vehicle without splurging a fortune doing R&D on vehicles which can't be used to launch anything for years.

    13. Re:"without coming close" is false by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      No, you said they were first to "operate on the principle that it was practical," which allows both of you to be right on this point.

      Well, then, allow me to amend my comment: they were the first to demonstrate that it was practical. Which they have. They haven't quite got it yet but they did show pretty clearly that it could be done. And with only a couple of trial runs. Pretty impressive, actually.

  4. And they are off. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is getting to be an interesting horse race.

    Two questions

    First, how much extra weight does Airbus need at takeoff including the extra fuel, structures, and engines?
    In the article, Airbus seemed to only want to talk about fuel weight.
    Not sure if the purpose is focused on building something, or getting more funding.

    Second, if X launches from Texas, is there a nice place to land the first stage?
    How far downrange was the barge, and what is that far from TX.

    Traditional space companies will certainly have to adjust their business models away from public funding dependance or be left behind.

    1. Re:And they are off. by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 2

      This is getting to be an interesting horse race.

      It's not as much of a race as you might think.

      From TFA, Airbus is going to be spending the next five years finishing Ariane 6. Then, AFTER they're done with that, they'll start serious work on reusability.

      On the other hand, SpaceX is already flying the reusability testbed(s), and running the tests required to refine the software to the point that it words as intended.

      So it looks like a race that SpaceX is pretty much guaranteed to win, what with the ten year head start....

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    2. Re:And they are off. by mtaff · · Score: 2

      They may win as soon as July 22nd, when the Falcon 9 is scheduled to land at Vandenburg AFB. It'll be really interesting to see how 'reusable' the first stage is after the engineers have a chance to inspect it thoroughly.

    3. Re:And they are off. by Immerman · · Score: 2

      >if X launches from Texas, is there a nice place to land the first stage?

      I'm not 100% certain, but my understanding is that the plan is to, depending on the amount of extra fuel allowed by unused payload capacity, either fly directly back to the launch pad, or land on the floating barge to refuel and *then* fly itself back to the launch pad. Though I remember some talk about SpaceX leasing one of the more remote and durable launch sites at Cape Canaveral, Florida, so I imagine they plan to eventually land there for refueling rather than on a barge in the open ocean, with the associated much greater weather sensitivity.

      It may seem kind of wasteful in terms of both fuel use and engine wear and tear (though I believe only one of the nine engines is used on the return flight), but consider that the first stage is about 45m tall (around 15 storeys), with an empty mass of about 25,000kg (approximately the maximum mass of a loaded 20-ft shipping container). The size means it's pretty much impossible to transport over normal roads, and the mass means that only the largest military cargo helicopters could handle it. And I would assume it's not designed to survive significant lateral stresses (no point in normal usage = wasted mass on structural supports = reduced payload), so laying it on its side to transport it by ship or truck would probably be a major challenge. So either you build and maintain a specialized transportation vehicle, or you just let the thing do what it was designed for and fly itself.

      >How far downrange was the barge, and what is that far from TX.
      I've heard 400km, though I couldn't give you a reliable source. And obviously that's fairly trivial to extend considering the first stage is already hurtling downrange at high speed when the second stage separates. If it simply "glided" down to to cruising speed, just maintaining high altitude (low air resistance) instead of actively decelerating, it could extend that range considerably while likely consuming even less fuel (obviously the fuel required for the return trip would increase, but that has no effect on payload capacity).

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    4. Re:And they are off. by cjameshuff · · Score: 2

      I think you're talking about the Jason-3 launch. That's actually a couple launches away, though it'll be their first landing attempt on the West Coast.

      CRS-7 is launching June 26th (bumped back a bit, probably to let them reshuffle things to account for cargo that was supposed to be delivered on the last Progress) from Cape Canaveral. They are going to attempt a landing...maybe on land instead of the ASDS.

      They've also got a geosynchronous sat launch in mid-July with the first "enhanced" F9 v1.1...that might have the capacity for a landing, which previous geosynchronous launches didn't have enough performance to attempt.

    5. Re:And they are off. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That launch has been delayed a few weeks due to a problem with the satellite.

  5. One of many examples by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    64 bit CPU:s
    IPv6
    Fuel-efficient cars
    and probably many more where all, at best, considered "unnessessary" when new.

  6. Very "original" by Dereck1701 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    So its basically the Vulcan concept, a detachable avionics/engine package at the back and an expendable everything else. I suppose its an improvement from what we currently have but not by much. The only real difference from Vulcan is that instead of being snagged out of the air by a helicopter it glides back to some location under some power. I suppose I can see why Airbus and ULA are going for such concepts, they should be pretty cheap to develop (though I am sure they'll try to squeeze every dollar they can out of their respective benefactors), are relatively low risk and will still let them justify big launch bills with tank/upper stage replacement. But if SpaceX can pull off a Falcon first stage recovery even a majority of the time they'll blow this and Vulcan out of the water. Fuel is cheap, replacing tanks and stages is expensive.

    1. Re:Very "original" by taiwanjohn · · Score: 2

      Agree. And assuming the Falcon Heavy flies as planned, there isn't much justification for SLS either. For the price of a single launch, you could fly at least 2 or 3 Falcon Heavies, and end up putting more mass on orbit. Since we're pretty experienced with rendezvous and docking, there's less need for such high throw-weight, even for large, complex missions.

      And eventually, SpaceX will come out with their new super-heavy (based on the Raptor engine) which will outclass SLS anyway, as they announced back in 2012. I reckon SLS will fly a few times (at most) and then be retired.

      --
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    2. Re: Very "original" by cyber-vandal · · Score: 1

      Sounds logical.

    3. Re:Very "original" by Rei · · Score: 4, Interesting

      When I think of "reducing costs", adding a couple turbofans to something doesn't jump to mind. Even if it gives them a better mass ratio than Falcon 9, that's a second powertrain to build and maintain. And then they have to rebuild the tank and re-mate it (although it saves some transportation costs).

      Might prove more economical, but I doubt it.

      --
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    4. Re:Very "original" by Rei · · Score: 0

      Of course there's a justification for SLS: jobs in congressmen's congressional districts.

      I reckon SLS will fly a few times (at most) and then be retired.

      Quite likely. The question is what congress will mandate has to be developed next to keep those people employed.

      --
      "99 dead duelists of Dios on the wall. 99 dead duelists of Dios! Take one's ring, pass it around..."
    5. Re:Very "original" by taiwanjohn · · Score: 2

      Yes, that's why it's nickname is the "Senate Launch System". ;-)

      The tragedy is, most of the people working at those jobs are really smart, highly skilled professionals who could do a lot of good for the amount of money we'll spend on them. Instead, we're going to waste both the money and their talents on a project that will at best enable an asteroid mission before it gets mothballed.

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    6. Re:Very "original" by Dereck1701 · · Score: 1

      "you could fly at least 2 or 3 Falcon Heavies"

      And that assumes you believe NASAs "$500 Million per launch" statement (Buwahahahahhhahhhahaaa). SLS has more than earned its "Senate Launch System" title, with billions already spent and at least $22 Billion required just to get the first two of them off the ground with no real indications on how much it will cost to develop any actual mission hardware or finish the heavier versions of it.

  7. Yes, and yes. That was then... by bogaboga · · Score: 1

    everyone else in the launch industry insisted it made no economic sense to try to recover and reuse the first stage of their rockets.

    Yes, that was then - long ago. Things are different now. For instance, who in the 90s, knew you could get 8GB of computer storage at less than $15 those days? It's reality now.

    1. Re:Yes, and yes. That was then... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...and 8 gigabytes of memory helps to get mass into orbit how exactly?

      Who could have known that the IBM terabit storage device (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_1360) would fit in a chip today?

      The Boeing 747 had its maiden flight in 1969, does it fly faster or higher today because you have a hard drive? Does it still land on rubber donuts?

      Please explain how information storage that uses less energy and material has anything at all to do with moving mass and using energy?

      I'm so fucking sick and tired of people making this monumentally stupid comparison.

    2. Re:Yes, and yes. That was then... by goodmanj · · Score: 3, Informative

      Aircraft technology isn't stagnant by any means: a modern 777-ER can carry the same number of passengers 50% farther for a third less fuel than the original 747-100. But that just proves your point, that breathless Moore's Law comparisons are moronic when talking about airplanes, cars, rockets, and bridges.

    3. Re:Yes, and yes. That was then... by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Aircraft technology isn't stagnant by any means: a modern 777-ER can carry the same number of passengers 50% farther for a third less fuel than the original 747-100.

      Well whoopee-do. That's the computing equivalent of saying 'But DOS 23.5 can now use ONE MEGABYTE of RAM, not the mere 640k you had to live with thirty years ago!'

      Now where are the vertical-takeoff hypersonic airliners I used to see on TV as a kid?

    4. Re:Yes, and yes. That was then... by goodmanj · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's my point. Progress happens in all fields of engineering, but computer engineering happens at such a radically different tempo that it's not a useful comparison.

      Now where are the vertical-takeoff hypersonic airliners I used to see on TV as a kid?

      Space, as it turns out, is really hard. There are two basic kinds of techological miracle: working with microscopic quantities of matter and energy, and working with vast amounts. Science fiction authors of the '60s assumed that mega-scale engineering would continue at the incredible pace set during the 20th century, but it turns out we were just getting to the hard part. But they drastically underestimated what we'd be able to do with micro-scale engineering.

    5. Re:Yes, and yes. That was then... by 0123456 · · Score: 2

      But aviation has gone backwards. When I was young, anyone with a few thousand dollars to spare could fly across the Atlantic in comfort at twice the speed of sound, and military pilots in a close approximation to space suits would be flying above them at nearly twice that speed.

      Now we gush about how new airliners save a few bucks on fuel so airlines can make more profit as they cram more and more of us into the same little metal tube.

    6. Re:Yes, and yes. That was then... by goodmanj · · Score: 2

      But aviation has gone backwards. When I was young, anyone with a few thousand dollars to spare could fly across the Atlantic in comfort at twice the speed of sound, and military pilots in a close approximation to space suits would be flying above them at nearly twice that speed.

      What's progress? Is progress defined in terms of how fast we can get a handful of millionaires from New York to Paris, or in terms of turning an ocean into an insignificant obstacle for average citizen of the developed world? Today's airfares are about a third (in constant dollars) of what they were when you were young, and there are six times as many people flying. Turns out that the ability to fly to Paris at Mach 2 was a pointless waste of effort and money. What that changed the world was the ability to get there for less than two weeks' wages.

    7. Re:Yes, and yes. That was then... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Turns out that the ability to fly to Paris at Mach 2 was a pointless waste of effort and money.

      i reject this idea. i don't want to live in your world. i live for cool stuff. the concorde is still cool stuff.

    8. Re: Yes, and yes. That was then... by smaddox · · Score: 1

      It's a phenomenon I call delusional optimism. People see the exponential growth that the semiconductor industry experienced for most of their life, and assume it's typical. Exponential growth in a finite world is transient. The generation just now being born won't be so delusionally optimistic.

  8. Competition? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's a very small market. You mean "oneupmanship" and prestige, yes?

  9. Warning signs of lack of engineering by goodmanj · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This has the look of a paper concept that nobody's put any engineering work into yet. Some possibly show-stopping engineering challenges:

    1) The air-breathing engines are dead weight dragged most of the way to orbit. And turboprops and turbofans are pretty damned heavy compared to rocket engines: for many applications, the weight of fuel and tankage is so much greater than the engines that engine mass is irrelevant, but that's not the case here. SpaceX's design makes use of engines that need to go to space anyway.

    2) Looking at the videos, the design relies on folding propellers that deploy in flight. This is ... not an easy thing to do. I'm not aware of any aircraft larger than a duck that uses this technique, even on carrier-based aircraft where space is at a premium.

    3) While rocket engines are pretty lightweight compared to turbine engines, it's still a lot of weight to fly back home. The video shows a flyback aircraft with very short stubby wings. In addition, the wings can't be asymmetric lifting airfoils or they'd push the rocket sideways during lauch: the have to be flat boards. The return vehicle is likely to have a very high stall speed, making landing a challenge.

    4) The video shows no details on how this propulsion module is attached to the fuel tank above it. This is difficult: enormous fuel and oxidizer pipes need to pass through the nose of the propulsion module, along with gigantic clamps attaching it to the fuel tank... but this surface is exposed to re-entry heating on the flight back. How do you route plumbing and avionics through your heat shield?

    1. Re:Warning signs of lack of engineering by Irate+Engineer · · Score: 1

      This has the look of a paper concept that nobody's put any engineering work into yet.

      Hey now, don't be a downer! It works in Kerbal Space Program!

      --

      Left MS Windows for Linux Mint and never looked back!

      Vote for Bernie in 2016!

    2. Re:Warning signs of lack of engineering by sribe · · Score: 1

      I'm not aware of any aircraft larger than a duck that uses this technique...

      pGeese, eagles, condors... So there!

    3. Re:Warning signs of lack of engineering by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      There's plenty of aircraft that have folding propellers, as long as you're willing to include rotors. Most naval helicopters have them, as do the V-22 Osprey. You don't see more of them, because propellors aren't nearly as big a space hog as the wings, which often fold. If you're willing to include motor gliders than there's also plenty of aircraft that deploy the folding propellor during flight.

    4. Re:Warning signs of lack of engineering by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      1) The air-breathing engines are dead weight dragged most of the way to orbit.

      This is only a first stage. So, not "most of the way to orbit."

      How do you route plumbing and avionics through your heat shield?

      Ask the guys who designed the shuttle. Shuttle did that, too. ;)

    5. Re:Warning signs of lack of engineering by goodmanj · · Score: 2

      This is only a first stage. So, not "most of the way to orbit."

      Well, sorta. This flyback proposal is based on an Ariane 5 style rocket, which has solid boosters which drop off early and an oversized LH2-LOX "main stage". Whether you call the main stage a first or second stage is semantics: the important point is that it goes all the way into space, and most of the way into orbit. See this launch of Ariane 5, where main stage separation happens at a velocity of 7 km/s (out of about 8 km/s needed to reach orbit.)

      Ask the guys who designed the shuttle. Shuttle did that, too. ;)

      Oh sure, it's possible, but I think you'll agree that the ideal number of holes in your heat shield is zero.

    6. Re:Warning signs of lack of engineering by goodmanj · · Score: 2

      Good examples, though these props will be operating at *much* higher speeds and stresses than a motor glider, and the Osprey's props don't unfold in flight. Well they're not supposed to anyway.

    7. Re: Warning signs of lack of engineering by smaddox · · Score: 2

      You seem to know a good amount about the design of rocket systems. I have a question for you. If reentry is so difficult, why not split stages earlier, before it becomes such a challenge? Aren't the currently used stage timings optimized assuming no reuse? What if you optimize for cost, and assume first stage recovery, but require a more manageable (earlier) split?

    8. Re: Warning signs of lack of engineering by goodmanj · · Score: 3, Informative

      I don't do this for a living, so don't take me too seriously. The smaller you make the first stage, the more work must be done by the second stage, which means *it* must be bigger, increasing the useless mass that makes it into orbit. Also, the smaller the first stage is, the less it costs, so it's less valuable to recover...

      You're absolutely right that there's an optimization problem to be solved here, and that a rocket optimized for first stage recovery might look very different from a stock Ariane 5 with wings on the bottom. But this rocket *does* look like a stock Ariane 5 with wings on the bottom, which makes me worry that they haven't done the math.

    9. Re:Warning signs of lack of engineering by rpstrong · · Score: 1

      2) Looking at the videos, the design relies on folding propellers that deploy in flight. This is ... not an easy thing to do. I'm not aware of any aircraft larger than a duck that uses this technique, even on carrier-based aircraft where space is at a premium.

      Look to the world of motor gliders - notably the Stemme S10.

    10. Re:Warning signs of lack of engineering by Agripa · · Score: 1

      I am dubious about the added weight as well but the turbine engines would not require a stored oxidizer saving some weight. I assume their fuel would be stored in the small wings.

  10. Simplified? by cjameshuff · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "The Airbus team concluded that SpaceX's design of returning the full stage to Earth could be simplified by separating the propulsion bay from the rest of the stage, protecting the motor on reentry and, using the winglets and turbofans, return horizontally to a conventional air strip."

    Interesting definition of "simplified" they're using. They're not even recovering the entire first stage, and they're basically bolting a jet airplane onto it to achieve that much. Propellant is as cheap as dirt, they're avoiding paying tens of thousands of dollars in propellant by instead paying for jet aircraft maintenance and operations and an entirely new set of cryogenic tankage and a substantial amount of aerospace vehicle structure for each flight. SpaceX is just making the first stage a bit bigger (and looking at things like additional propellant chilling to increase density) so it has the extra capacity required.

    "We are using an aerodynamic shield so that the motor is not subjected to such high stress on reentry"

    Thus solving an issue that SpaceX has already shown isn't actually a major problem...they have been regularly bringing entire intact first stages through reentry and down to sea level for some time now.

    As for SpaceX not "coming close"...their second attempt actually brought the vehicle to a halt on the landing pad, though with mangled landing gear, and the reasons for the control issues during the final burn are well understood. They are extremely close...odds are quite good that their third attempt (in a bit under 2 weeks) will be a success.

    1. Re:Simplified? by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Thus solving an issue that SpaceX has already shown isn't actually a major problem...they have been regularly bringing entire intact first stages through reentry and down to sea level for some time now.

      But, at this point, no-one knows how much work will be required to refurbish those stages and fly them again. Until we actually have one land intact, rather than inpieces, we won't know. It could turn out that this method is actually cheaper than SpaceX returning the entire stage, though I doubt it myself.

    2. Re:Simplified? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They have ballpark figures, the Merlin has a fuck ton of stand time. And it's already vastly less than lets say the SMEs.

  11. 30% launch cost reduction is huge by Ceriel+Nosforit · · Score: 1

    30% launch cost reduction is a huge deal. It is considered good ROI in many areas, so things which previously could only break even become financially viable, and in fact a risk worth taking.

    Here's to hoping they keep true to the 30%!

    --
    All rites reversed 2010
    1. Re:30% launch cost reduction is huge by cjameshuff · · Score: 1

      Reusing the engines would be a significant cost reduction, but they're going about it in a particularly complex way, and their level of reuse still falls short of their competition's. By their own statements, they throw away 20% of the economic value of the stage. SpaceX just needs to make the first stage a bit oversized for the second stage. That costs them a somewhat larger vehicle (which is reused for multiple launches, so this cost only has to be paid once) and propellant (which accounts for 1% of a launch).

      After 5 launches, Adeline will have cost as much in disposable tanks as an entire new first stage. A Falcon 9R might fly as many as 40 times without major refurbishment.

  12. the more the merrier... by Karmashock · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Is the airbus project worth anything? I have no idea. But the more money thrown at this issue the happier I am really.

    We need to get into space and we've allowed our space programs to atrophy.

    --
    I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
    1. Re:the more the merrier... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We are already in space. It's empty.

      Go colonize Arizona with a self sustaining factory brought in with 2 trailer-trucks... much more useful.

    2. Re:the more the merrier... by Karmashock · · Score: 1

      If we had that attitude, we'd have remained in the water with the rest of the fish.

      You can stay here if you want. No one is forcing you to leave the planet.

      --
      I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
    3. Re: the more the merrier... by smaddox · · Score: 1

      I would actually love to see more research being done shopping these lines. The complete failure of biosphere as a self-sustained ecosystem shows we have a lot to learn before independent colonies become realistic.

    4. Re: the more the merrier... by smaddox · · Score: 1

      Sorry, I'm on my phone. "Shopping those lines" was supposed to be "along those lines".

  13. Yeah by EnsilZah · · Score: 2

    So they bolt on a pair of wings, add some propellers that have to be deployed from a casing that protects them during launch, oh and another stage separation event, a mechanism for separating the fuel tank from the engine.
    And that's supposed to be simpler than some hydraulic landing legs and grid fins?
    And carrying all those additions to space doesn't cost them any extra fuel?

    1. Re:Yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So they bolt on a pair of wings, add some propellers that have to be deployed from a casing that protects them during launch, oh and another stage separation event, a mechanism for separating the fuel tank from the engine. And that's supposed to be simpler than some hydraulic landing legs and grid fins? And carrying all those additions to space doesn't cost them any extra fuel?

      Which costs more, the extra fuel or building new engines for every launch?

    2. Re:Yeah by Feral+Nerd · · Score: 1

      So they bolt on a pair of wings, add some propellers that have to be deployed from a casing that protects them during launch, oh and another stage separation event, a mechanism for separating the fuel tank from the engine. And that's supposed to be simpler than some hydraulic landing legs and grid fins? And carrying all those additions to space doesn't cost them any extra fuel?

      Are you raging against this because it is a bad idea? Because it isn't an American idea? Because it wasn't thought up by golden boy Elon Musk? Or is it all three? The idea of landing the first stage like an airplane is a well understood process and it sure as hell seems simpler and more straight forward to me than what Musk is trying to achieve, which is to land a rocket standing up at the mercy if the wind; and simpler is usually better.

    3. Re:Yeah by kimvette · · Score: 1

      > So they bolt on a pair of wings, add some propellers that have to be deployed from a casing that protects them during launch, oh and another stage separation event, a mechanism for separating the fuel tank from the engine.

      I do not think you know what a turbofan is based on what you stated.

      > And that's supposed to be simpler than some hydraulic landing legs and grid fins?

      Not simpler to build and package, but certainly far easier to land given that we have 70 years of experience building jet engines

      > And carrying all those additions to space doesn't cost them any extra fuel?

      It does - but turbofans and horizontal flight with lifting surfaces is far more efficient than attempting to land vertically using a rocket engine, and we have 110 years of experience landing aircraft horizontally, or if you want to combine total experience, probably approaching on a million combined "man years" of experience landing aircraft (and spacecraft if you include the X15, space shuttle, scaled/virgin's spaceship, Buran, and the space plane) horizontally.

      --
      The Christian Right is Neither (Christian nor right). See: Matthew 23, Matthew 25, Ezekiel 16:48-50
    4. Re:Yeah by cjameshuff · · Score: 1

      A first stage is not an airplane. Making it land like an airplane entails adding most of an airplane to it...wings, jet engines, unfolding propellers, substantial, steerable landing gear, various covers and other mechanisms that open and close in flight, mechanisms to detach the disposable tanks, etc. This is not making things simpler.

    5. Re:Yeah by goodmanj · · Score: 1

      I do not think you know what a turbofan is based on what you stated.

      The article mentions "turbofans" but the video at the bottom of the link clearly shows external propellers (i.e., a turboprop). It's the article that's confused, not the grandparent poster.

      It does - but turbofans and horizontal flight with lifting surfaces is far more efficient than attempting to land vertically using a rocket engine, and we have 110 years of experience landing aircraft horizontally, or if you want to combine total experience, probably approaching on a million combined "man years" of experience landing aircraft

      SpaceX has an actual flying reuse system that might or might not work. TFA is discussing a back-of-envelope concept that hasn't even gotten to the detailed engineering yet, much less flown. You might be right, landing with wings might turn out to be a better idea. But there's tens of millions of dollars of blueprints and welded aluminum to go before we can make an apples-to-apples comparison between them. In the meantime, SpaceX will either succeed or fail. There's no point in saying either design is "better" before that.

    6. Re:Yeah by EnsilZah · · Score: 1

      I'm not raging against anything.
      I don't see why I should care if it was an 'American idea' even if I thought that was a meaningful distinction.
      I do like most of Elon's projects and I don't think he would have used a system like this because he's looking to build a rocket that could potentially land on Mars, but that's irrelevant.

      I merely object to this design being presented as 'simplified' and having 'no need for extra rocket fuel'.

      I personally find the SpaceX approach more elegant and I don't think that because we've had a hundred years of air flight experience that makes it any simpler or better of a solution.

    7. Re:Yeah by Feral+Nerd · · Score: 1

      A first stage is not an airplane. Making it land like an airplane entails adding most of an airplane to it...wings, jet engines, unfolding propellers, substantial, steerable landing gear, various covers and other mechanisms that open and close in flight, mechanisms to detach the disposable tanks, etc. This is not making things simpler.

      And making a long cylindrical object landin end up on a platform in any kind of wind is simple?

    8. Re:Yeah by Feral+Nerd · · Score: 1

      I'm not raging against anything. I don't see why I should care if it was an 'American idea' even if I thought that was a meaningful distinction. I do like most of Elon's projects and I don't think he would have used a system like this because he's looking to build a rocket that could potentially land on Mars, but that's irrelevant.

      I merely object to this design being presented as 'simplified' and having 'no need for extra rocket fuel'.

      I personally find the SpaceX approach more elegant and I don't think that because we've had a hundred years of air flight experience that makes it any simpler or better of a solution.

      I don't see the elegance. It is overly complicated. I have worked around tall structures long enough to know what wind will do to something like an antenna mast or wind generator mounting column floating in mid air under a crane and I don't expect it will do anything much different to a rocket trying to land end up. If Airbus can really add airplane parts to a rocket stage using ultra light high strength modern composts and land the thing like an airplane that and do it in a fairly broad range of weather conditions it seems like just as good an idea to me as a rocket that lands end up and can't be expected to landed successfully except in very low winds. There is a lot of elegance about a Range Rover, there is little elegance about a Willys Jeep. If I had to pick the most reliable vehicle I wouldn't give a shit about elegance, I'd pick the Willys MB. It seems to me that in space travel reliability is more important than earning nerd points with complicated systems. 'Elegant' solutions aren't always automatically the best ones it's the ones that work reliably under a wide variety of sub optimal conditions.

    9. Re:Yeah by taiwanjohn · · Score: 1

      The way SpaceX is trying to recover the booster is like catching a bullet in your teeth. They have only a second or two of usable thrust, since the Merlin engines don't have enough throttle range to land at a nice gentle pace. But what if they developed a "Merlin DT" (Deep Throttle[TM]) and used that for the center engine? Even if the Merlin-DT was less efficient, it's only one of nine, so you could optimize it quite easily over the whole flight profile.

      If you had that one center engine with enough throttle range to burn at very low thrust for 10 or 12 seconds, that would be ideal for landing.

      I know, I know.... that's just what you guys need right now, another new engine design... But maybe you could find a way to add a tweak to allow greater throttle range, even at the expense of some efficiency. You only need the deep-throttle thrust for a few seconds at the end of the flight, and only on one engine, so it would be worth having a separate engine class devoted tho this use.

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve your problem, you're not using enough of it. --AC
    10. Re: Yeah by smaddox · · Score: 1

      It's already been shown that the SpaceX design can get within 105m of a landing pad. If it ends up being too difficult to finish the landing as is, adding more landing site sensors to improve prediction, and adding a catching mechanism should solve the problem. And note that all of these additions are one-time costs that don't have to be lifted to 100km. My money works definitely be on the spacex design.

    11. Re: Yeah by smaddox · · Score: 1

      *15m, not 105m

  14. "Stress" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    SpaceX has been able to bring their rockets down without any special turbofans or shields or whatnot. Granted, they haven't (yet) managed to land them upright, but 99.9% of the hardest part has already been accomplished without resorting to gimmicks. Why do ULA and Airbus insist it's impossible when a quick Google search pulls up a list videos of SpaceX doing exactly that?

  15. Economics by 0123456 · · Score: 1

    They're right that reusability doesn't make much economic sense at current flight rates. NASA and Boeing looked at recovering Saturn V stages in the 60s, and determined that they'd need about 60 launches for the development and operational cost of recovering and refurbishing the stages to become lower than just throwing them away. This would probably require less, as they wouldn't be dumping the stage into the sea and trying to clean it up, but it will still probably require quite a few years at current launch rates to pay for itself.

    SpaceX seems to be trying to get around that by cutting costs so low that the market grows exponentially. But there's a big gap between rockets a government can afford to launch a satellite on and rockets Joe Sixpack can afford to fly on for a space vacation where there's no clear and proven market.

    1. Re: Economics by smaddox · · Score: 1

      Note, though, that spacex is using payed-for launches to test its recovery system. Thus, the development costs are much lower than they could be.

  16. Large government contractors by kimvette · · Score: 1

    Large government contractors live or die suckling the tits of taxpayers... and their internal goal is NOT to solve the problems they're brought in to solve (the paperless initiative to reduce costs and ALSO as a side effect make all government records indexable and searchable for example) but to maximize billable hours.

    It makes perfect sense to say it isn't economically feasible to make the first stage of spacecraft reusable; because for them it ISN'T an economically sound business model. It would reduce their total revenue for these projects. For new players, it absolutely makes perfect sense because it is a new market which established players will not touch with a ten foot/3m (notice the inaccurate conversion of english to metric, quite appropriate for aerospace contractors ;) ) but new players who want to break into the market are seizing as an opportunity to get established in the industry.... so of course now that practical designs, even if flawed, are proving to be achievable they are absolutely terrified of being forced to unlatched from the teat. That has them scared so they will of course now begin in earnest to develop more reusable spacecraft because they work on such a large scale that losing just a couple of contracts where they have designed their business model to be as inefficient as possible in order to maximize net profits could bankrupt them very quickly.

    This business model will also make affordable space tourism and arriving at next generation, more efficient spacecraft to be developed sooner.

    Consider this: what if Scaled Composites were to get into the strategic fighter game? What if they were to go head-to-head against Lockheed's Skunk Works, and reduced the cost of stealth interceptor/fighter/bombers and spy planes to tens of millions per unit rather than a blllion per unit, and made them more efficient and faster to boot? Given their immense investment in conventional tooling and methodologies, I don't think they could change their ways and remain profitable... taxpayers would save money, we'd see more capable military aircraft, and as a side effect we would probably see variable geometry airfoils with the ability to reduce or even cancel out audible sonic booms become reality and over-land supersonic airliners become a practical reality.

    The goal of a large government contractor is not to reduce costs (even if that is a requirement laid out in the RFQ/RFP), but to maximize net profits. Cost-cutting measures are always impractical until a new emerging player proves that it is possible.

    --
    The Christian Right is Neither (Christian nor right). See: Matthew 23, Matthew 25, Ezekiel 16:48-50
    1. Re:Large government contractors by thrich81 · · Score: 2

      Scaled already built a close air support prototype -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S.... The world hasn't beaten a path to their door to buy them. I agree that the legacy aerospace contractors are crooks, but competitive modern fighters are extremely complex in every domain -- structural, propulsion, avionics. Ask the Russians and Chinese how well their 5th gen fighters are coming. I respect Scaled but Spaceship Two is a LOT simpler than a 5th gen fighter and it is not coming along so well.

    2. Re:Large government contractors by kimvette · · Score: 1

      > Ask the Russians and Chinese how well their 5th gen fighters are coming.

      Russia's aircraft are actually quite good. For example, he F-15 was developed in response to rumors of the MiG-25... but performance was inferior. The design of the MiG-25 is so good it is the basis for the MiG-31, and is also rumored to be the basis for a MACH 4-capable interceptor... same basic design but with modern materials and construction techniques. Also other Russian (Soviet?) military aircraft were historically superior to ours in other respects; because they had little access to ICs, many of their bombers used vacuum tubes which are far more resistant to EMP than solid state electronics. Don't underestimate Russia's capabilities. It is such a shame that after the cold war we never became better than frenemies with them; if we could get alone and put our heads together we would very likely be moving much faster in developing truly practical space travel.

      The Chinese stealth fighter's advanced capabilities exist largely in the form of CGI propaganda videos. Besides, even if it were real, it would likely break the day after the warranty is out, and there will be no phone number for customer support the manufacturer should it fail within the 30-day warranty. ;)

      --
      The Christian Right is Neither (Christian nor right). See: Matthew 23, Matthew 25, Ezekiel 16:48-50
  17. Well, as long as nobody challenges their by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    primary trick: selling "best-in-the-world" defense technology to their governments "to protect against enemies" of course, then insisting on permission to export the tech "only to our best allies", then teaching others to manufacture it "to save taxpayer money", then selling to less-reputable countries "to support national foreign policy objectives"......... then pointing out that a whole NEW generation of super expensive innovative defense tech is needed because everybody else has the current generation of defense tech.....

    Bingo! Yahtzee! Cha-CHING! Watch that government money pour in!

    There are so many examples..... but let me point out that ISIS is now driving around in US Abrams tanks, LockMart has licensed the Italians to manufacture the F-35 (something middle-America might object to as lost good-paying jobs IF they were aware of it) which is not yet even in active service with the US military, and Turkey (which has turned its back on secularism and NATO and has now pivoted towards Iran and Hijabs) is on the list to get F-35s? The LockMart lobbying for a "next generation" fighter should be starting-up soon, and the heavy vehicle manufacturers should start insisting that the US needs a new tank...

    It's all good..... Boeing and LockMart will, on the one hand, tell US that Russia is a big evil threat that means we need a new strategic bomber program..... while they walk confidently into hearings on capitol hill to insist that they need to import more Russian rocket engines to use to launch US military satellites.... which they assure congress is a good idea because the Russians are "our trusted friends" and even "partners"...... these same big firms will also tell us we need new high-tech defense systems to deter China, while insisting that they should be allowed to outsource parts and labor to Chinese firms.....

    1. Re:Well, as long as nobody challenges their by dl_sledding · · Score: 1

      Why did you A/C this? It's dead on...

  18. Mythical man month by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "For the price of a single launch, you could fly at least 2 or 3 Falcon Heavies..."

    This argument keeps arising, but it is as flawed as the argument that you can use 9 women to produce a baby in only one month... SOME things just cannot be split-up and paralleled. This is something the everybody in tech was SUPPOSED to have awakened to, if they had not already thought it through, when the "Mythical" book came out.

    Yes, you CAN chop up the cubic footage of a large habitation module into smaller modules and assemble on-orbit, BUT there is a big price to pay. Skylab for example went up on ONE Saturn V launch on ONE DAY. ISS required a huge number of launches over a DECADE with all the hazardous space walks for assembly added-on as program risks. Plus, the resulting habitation VOLUME might be less versatile chopped up into smaller modules instead of a big module.

    Yes you CAN build a fuel depot in orbit from smaller parts launched on several small rocket flights and then fill it with small quantities launched on a bunch of smaller launches, or you can save yourself a huge number of launch operations and a bunch of rendezvous ops, proximity ops, dockings, undockings, fuel transfers, etc and simply launch a large fully-fuelled "Earth Departure" stage on one launch on one day.

    Space is VERY risky and unforgiving both because of the environmental extremes and because of the huge amounts of energy involved in getting there and getting back - so by nature any responsible program is sufficiently risk-averse that it does not choose lots of additional complexity and many more operations without very solid justification.

    1. Re:Mythical man month by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Space is VERY risky and unforgiving both because of the environmental extremes and because of the huge amounts of energy involved in getting there and getting back - so by nature any responsible program is sufficiently risk-averse that it does not choose lots of additional complexity and many more operations without very solid justification.

      Which is another reason NOT to put a $10,000,000 payload on top of a $2,000,000 rocket and send it up in a single launch. Skylab was almost lost due to malfunctions of the Saturn that launched it.

    2. Re:Mythical man month by thrich81 · · Score: 2

      The Skylab malfunction was with the Skylab module itself, not the Saturn V vehicle underneath it. "The station was damaged during launch when the micrometeoroid shield separated from the workshop and tore away, taking one of two main solar panel arrays with it and jamming the other one so that it could not deploy." -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S.... Your point holds though, just not the right example.

  19. I have one question by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What do we lose by allowing ESA to try this out? Would you have launched this same barrage of criticism at SpaceX?

    We benefit greatly from having different launch systems. Even if one is provably more efficient than another, safety and other factors mean that every space launch vehicle has impaired availability from time to time. The Russian space program was threatened by political and economic issues. The Space Shuttle was interrupted by 2 total systems failures. There are lots of other examples.

    Let ESA do their thing. Maybe they'll come up with something great. The ESA has had several major successes in recent years and they deserve the room to try or fail, on their own terms.

  20. say waht? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The sky was blue today and people died today.... so I guess you think blue skies kill people????

    Challenger was caused by management launching her in weather that violated her design constraints - and sure enough, when solid rockets fired at temps their designers said would be unsafe, the designers were proven right and management proven wrong, as usual.

    Columbia was caused by management "normalizing deviancy". From day one, shuttles were coming home with tile damage and management concluded (without actually having the engineers actually prove it) that this was [a] mostly caused by debris kicked-up on the runway at landing and [b] obviously survivable; they gradually came to accept the damage as "in-family" and "normal" rather than remembering that it had originally been feared. Over time as they saw tiles damaged on ascent by insulation being shed from the ET and the SRBs, they were already so used to the tile damage that they did not act appropriately to get to the bottom of ET insulation shedding and solve it (as they did finally for the post-Columbia flights). There is no evidence that any other mechanical cause than a chunk of ice-laden insulation falling from the NEW external tank, caused the loss.

    In summary: You have posted a correlation-causation fallacy.