Plunging Battery Prices Expected To Spur Renewable Energy Adoption
Lucas123 writes: Lithium-ion (Li-on) and flow battery prices are expected to drop by as much as 60% by 2020, making them far more affordable for storing power from distributed renewable energy systems, such as wind and solar, according to a recent report by Australia's Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA). The 130-page report (PDF) shows that Li-on batteries will drop from $550 per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2014 to $200 per kWh by 2020; and flow battery prices will drop from $680 per kWh to $350 per kWh during the same time. Flow batteries and Li-ion batteries work well with intermittent energy sources such as solar panels and wind turbines because of their ability to be idle for long periods without losing a charge. Both battery technologies offer unique advantages in that they can easily be scaled to suit many applications and have high cycle efficiency, the ARENA report noted. Li-ion batteries more easily suit consumer market. Flow batteries, which are less adaptable for consumer use because they're typically too large, scale more easily because all that's needed to grow storage capacity is more electrolyte liquid; the hardware remains the same.
More importantly, will the cost drop? There is so much meddling in the market nowadays that you may pay less for things that are costing more to make, and vice versa.
Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
Check this: http://www.greencarreports.com...
Really? Really? Is AREA already taken by the Australian Residential Eucalyptus Advocates or something?
If you're going to do a mixed acronym like that, at least have the sense not to capitalize the 'n' "AREnA" is perfectly readable, and does not give the false impression of an n-word (necktie? nickel? it was definitely an n word) where one is not present.
Had to look this one up! From the wikipedia:
A flow battery, or redox flow battery (after reduction–oxidation), is a type of rechargeable battery where rechargeability is provided by two chemical components dissolved in liquids contained within the system and separated by a membrane.[1] Ion exchange (providing flow of electric current) occurs through the membrane while both liquids circulate in their own respective space.
... While it has technical advantages such as potentially separable liquid tanks and near unlimited longevity over most conventional rechargeables, current implementations are comparatively less powerful and require more sophisticated electronics.
On the negative side, flow batteries are rather complicated in comparison with standard batteries as they may require pumps, sensors, control units and secondary containment vessels. The energy densities vary considerably but are, in general, rather low compared to portable batteries, such as the Li-ion.
Lead acid 6 v golf cart battery with over 100 Ah of usable capacity, or 0.6 kWh of storage (ie: 200+ Ah actual capacity, you never drain a lead acid battery flat) : $90. Deep cycle (because it's for powering golf carts) means you actually CAN drain 50% or more of it without damaging the battery at all.
That's $150 per kWh, and you can hop on over to Sam's Club and buy one or more of them tonight.
If you have the space to deal with them, which if you're using them for home you likely do, lead acid battery tech is going to beat out lithium ion for a long time yet (past 2020 apparently!)
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The money I save via the solar panels, I'll probably lose due to the higher fire insurance premiums.
Why lithium batteries keep catching fire
...Lithium batteries are widely used because of their high energy density: in other words, their ability to store a lot of energy in a lightweight, compact form. But they have a tendency to cause expensive machinery to go up in smoke....
Is it just me or are we creating more hazardous material and keeping it in our homes as we push this whole "clean energy" initiative? We're talking about creating millions of tons of batteries that contain nasty chemicals and hazardous materials and we will keep them in our homes.
I'll stay on the grid, thanks.
How are batteries of environmentally friendly and sustainable?
I bet you another battery tech will beat both in price and performance, over the next 5 years battery tech is going to take off (it's already started) and what we use today will be primitive in comparison.
Not to mention fusion will finally be feasible which will spin this whole discussion.
You can't go wrong with nickel-iron. You will need to add a large extension to the house though.
“He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
When I am building robots my battery choices very much are the limiting factor in my designs and the final capabilities of the robot. I can go for big lumbering beasts with piles of lead acid. Or I can break the bank with enough lipo to keep a laptop factory running for a week. Or I can pair my design down until it is simply a toy. Other options are to make it sound like a garden tool and put some kind of gasoline motor in.
But if I had a reasonably priced source of reasonably power dense batteries then my robots would improve proportionally. For this doesn't just increase the power available to my existing designs but it also reduces the overall costs of a robot. For instance the more efficient the motor or cost computer module, generally the higher the cost. But it would be great if I could slap in any old small motherboard, and use run of the mill DC motors instead of ultra cool brushless.
Then whole other motor systems become possible. Linear motors, pneumatic systems, hydraulic systems, etc.
So a revolution in batteries would precipitate a revolution in robots; real robots doing real jobs in the real world.
Why are articles citing battery sizes in kWh these days? How are they even coming up with that, exactly, and how do I determine the Ah equivalent, which is what batteries are actually sized in? It's hard for me to do the math on these numbers and compare to AGMs, FLAs, etc.
Where do they get these bullshit numbers from? Even Bob Lutz (considered the "father" of the Chevy Volt) pegged battery costs at $350 kwh...THREE YEARS AGO. Not only may the numbers be from earlier in the program, they're for batteries using an expensive prismatic design. I'd be very surprised if Tesla isn't getting their batteries for under $200 kwh today.
There are lead acid batteries, which last a few thousand charge cycles, but they produce hydrogen gas, which is bad for a consumer product. Lithium batteries have the advantage of being light, and somewhat safe. That is an advantage for electronic devices, and electric cars. For big, stationary electricity storage, not so much.
I'm eagerly anticipating affordable electric motorcycles.
I think Brammo and Zeros are rated at ~ 200-500 MPG equivalent?
That's way better mileage than even a fully loaded (everybody standing) bus gets in peak hours.
The problem with the electric motorcycles today is the price tag. The prices have dropped recently (from, say, $19,000 to $14,000, with ~$12,000 for very low end bikes that can't go very far,) but they need to go down further and increase in range.
With the price of oil this low, and likely to stay that way for many years, what economic motivation will people have to go with renewable energy now?
It made a lot of sense with oil at 100, 80, 90 dollars a barrel and the price at the pump at ridiculous levels. But when the price of gas and electricity drops in response to oil prices, what will happen to investments in renewables. I'm thinking that they suddenly will not seem as attractive anymore from a purely economic standpoint.
-Gel214th
Who cares about cheap batteries in 2020. I read that fusion power will supply a veritable firehose of free power for the whole world, and solving the pesky remaining engineering challenges should only take about 15 years. :p
The going rate for residential electricity in the U.S. is about $0.11/kWh. So basically if these batteries charge/discharge once per day (as the case would be for solar), and you want the batteries to only add (say) 20% to the price of the generated electricity in order for it to remain cost-competitive (note: wind is nearly cost-competitive, solar is still about 2x-3x more expensive), then it currently takes $550 per kWh / ($0.11 per kWh * 20% * 365 cycles/yr) = 68.5 years for these batteries to pay for themselves, but by 2020 it will take 27.4 years. Yay progress?
Unless the levelized price for renewable generation drops substantially below that of coal, I don't see how this will "spur renewable energy adoption" except for regions where electricity prices are substantially higher (e.g. Hawaii, $0.30/kWh)
battery tech is going to take off
Why? Batteries have been researched for hundreds of years and is limited to mixing chemicals with known electric potentials. Lipo's are 25 years old now and were the last of major significance.
Lithium battery technology needs much more sophisticated charge/discharge/monitoring controllers than lead-acid. There's a bit of way to go before domestic PV/battery controllers are up to the task.
From my review of the situation, it's more that they're different. Yes, you can get away with a dumber charger on lead-acid, but when you're doing domestic PV with a large battery array, you want a sophisticated charger anyways.
Same deal with LiIon, really. the minimum charger is a bit more complicated, but again, as the size of the battery increases so doesn't the sophistication of the charger to handle it. Tesla chargers, for example, are really fancy, but we're talking about a HUGE array here, capable of powering the average house for around 2 days.
As such, from what I've read, theres are 'smart' LiIon batteries that are capable of working with a dumb lead-acid charger and thus working fine - see LiIon replacements for car & motorcycle batteries that are drop-in replacements. They handle the safe charging aspects on their own.
But if you have a solar setup, you don't have a dumb charger, thus conflict emerges. So yeah, you'd have to change out the charger at that time. Though when I looked at solar last year, the battery controllers the store had were compatible with Lead-Acid, NiMH, and Lithium. You know your own system though.
And yes. If you have a system currently that's working, the last thing I'd do would be to suggest replacing it before it's EOL.
Just keep an open mind when replacement time does come around.
I don't read AC A human right
Why? Batteries have been researched for hundreds of years and is limited to mixing chemicals with known electric potentials.
The difference is in the amount of research that is going on. Between the laptop industry, the mobile phone industry, and the electric car industry, the amount of money and man-hours being invested into commercial battery technology over the last 5 years dwarfs the previous efforts. Advances in battery technology are being discovered every week.
I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
and how many practical ones have been released?
Seen hundreds of "Press releases" (stock manipulation hype news as I like to call it!!)
But actual "You can buy this now!" no, pretty much fuck all.
And if you notice most are not about basic chemistry (finding new "elements" that have higher density or anything useful like that), more about changing the structures used (better anode, cathode design, increased surface area for faster discharge/charging).
And that is the problem, Batteries have NOT advanced that much over 100 years compared to other technology, as it's mainly a problem with basic chemistry V's energy density.
Wishing for a miracle new element that will change the basic's ain't going to happen, so wake up to the real world!!.
"NOD32 detects a trojan in APK's HOSTS bullshit." - by Khyber (864651) on Saturday August 22, 2015 @01:02PM (#50370415)
VirusTotal & NOD32 SHOW IT COMPLETELY CLEAN IN ITS EXES
https://www.virustotal.com/en/...
AND
https://www.virustotal.com/en/...
There's only 2 exe's & 5 text files in it - The exe's are proven clean as shown above in the 2 links from VirusTotal, the installer's a SFX rar (keeps it 2mb smaller on download) - that's NO virus!
(Unless YOU know of a way that .txt files are "viruses")
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"he's tying to get your fucking information." - by Khyber (864651) on Saturday August 22, 2015 @01:02PM (#50370415)
My program doesn't transmit outward ONLY intake of data from 10 reputable sources in the security community!
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"APK is apparently too fucking stupid to do this at the ROUTER level where it's most effective" - by Khyber (864651) on Saturday August 22, 2015 @01:02PM (#50370415)
You believe in "eggshell security" which fails per -> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2...
A TRULY COMPETENT NETWORK ADMIN WOULD DO FAR MORE THAN MERE PERIMETER LEVEL SECURITY @ ROUTER LEVEL!
(Right down to the endpoints/network nodes level in PC workstations also using tools you already have in hosts + firewalls (vs. "piling on 'MOAR'" that's inefficient & not nearly as effective in slower usermode browser addons)).
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"Windows 10 has hardcoded IPs and bypasses HOSTs." - by Khyber (864651) on Saturday August 22, 2015 @01:02PM (#50370415)
Windows ONLY bypasses hosts files for Windows update (Win8 & below) & for the tracking "telemetry" in Windows 10 (this is going to KILL Windows 10, mark my words - nobody likes tracking -> http://localghost.org/posts/a-... - test it yourself.
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"Browsers can bypass HOSTs as well." - by Khyber (864651) on Saturday August 22, 2015 @01:02PM (#50370415)
WTF? They'd be bypassing the IP stack itself, hosts are part of it - since that's impossible? You've proven yourself a moron, again.
APK
P.S.=> See subject & "EAT YOUR WORDS"... apk
It's not dropping for the "right" or sustainably reasons: it's mostly an inventory oversupply problem as NOTHING has improved technologically. Just another symptom of deflationary collapse triggered by the fact no one can afford to buy things in the first place. For this reason it won't have any effect on green energy adoption. Sorry to be the messenger.
"Fusion will be feasible in 5 years?"
Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahhaahhahaahahahahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!!!
I'll bet you a year's pay that fusion won't even be feasible in 25 years.
See subject: What YOU seem to forget is that I never start it. I only finish it.
* Do you HONESTLY think I don't have everyone who's ever given me guff here NOT tracked thus against that, WAY ahead of time? I do, just so you know...
I.E.-> By starting with me, they documented it for me in fact by trolling/harassing me, first, every single time.
(Me? Heh - I am gloating @ them, just like YOU NOW Khyber by ac post - lol, rightfully so, in righteous indignation AND to give them a dose of their OWN medicine in return!)
APK
P.S.=> ..."And the truth SHALL set you free" (it always has me, just as it has here)... apk