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Plunging Battery Prices Expected To Spur Renewable Energy Adoption

Lucas123 writes: Lithium-ion (Li-on) and flow battery prices are expected to drop by as much as 60% by 2020, making them far more affordable for storing power from distributed renewable energy systems, such as wind and solar, according to a recent report by Australia's Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA). The 130-page report (PDF) shows that Li-on batteries will drop from $550 per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2014 to $200 per kWh by 2020; and flow battery prices will drop from $680 per kWh to $350 per kWh during the same time. Flow batteries and Li-ion batteries work well with intermittent energy sources such as solar panels and wind turbines because of their ability to be idle for long periods without losing a charge. Both battery technologies offer unique advantages in that they can easily be scaled to suit many applications and have high cycle efficiency, the ARENA report noted. Li-ion batteries more easily suit consumer market. Flow batteries, which are less adaptable for consumer use because they're typically too large, scale more easily because all that's needed to grow storage capacity is more electrolyte liquid; the hardware remains the same.

130 comments

  1. Yay for price drop by Tokolosh · · Score: 4, Insightful

    More importantly, will the cost drop? There is so much meddling in the market nowadays that you may pay less for things that are costing more to make, and vice versa.

    --
    Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
    1. Re: Yay for price drop by slack_justyb · · Score: 4, Interesting

      From the document, the major rationale for the expected price drop would be from an abundant supply of product. Not due to some new process that makes the product cheaper to build. So a lot of this is educated guessing. One that there are lot of new production coming on line for batteries. That's a true statement. Two, all of these new players will create a vast supply of batteries. That's a logical outcome that's typically true but not always. Three, this huge supply will drive prices down. Again that's the typical market assumption but it's not always a sure thing. So it is a one thing leads to another kind of paper. I don't disagree with some of the assumptions made, and the numbers seem conservative enough to not be in the realm of outlandish. So a pretty safe paper in terms of speculation, but not exactly hard truth so take with usual grain of salt here.

    2. Re:Yay for price drop by TWX · · Score: 2

      Generally in economies of scale, the greater the scale of production the less per-unit the cost to assemble, assuming that the manufacturing facilities are running efficiently and aren't idled due to a lack of orders.

      That's why Mr. Musk's "Gigafactory" is such a big deal; if quality batteries can be produced on a massive scale and for less money per-unit, suddenly it makes using batteries for general-purpose applications more affordable. You might see racks upon racks of lead-acid batteries providing infrastructure support for telco rooms be replaced with smaller, longer-lived Lithium-Ion batteries, you might find homes receive whole-house battery backups because they're relatively maintenance-free and are easier to work with than Group-27 batteries that look more at home under the hood of a car.

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    3. Re:Yay for price drop by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      You might see racks upon racks of lead-acid batteries providing infrastructure support for telco rooms be replaced with smaller, longer-lived Lithium-Ion batteries,

      In 2012, Li-Ion was 'niche' for battery backup. By late 2013 it was making inroads into data centers.

      I'd almost rate it like HD vs SSD - while performance metrics are different, LiIon is a superior battery held back only by cost. Drop the price of it by 60% and suddenly it's cheaper to ship(lighter per Wh), lasts longer(double or more of lead-acid), more efficient(~95% efficient vs 80%, and lower standby loss as well; takes deep-discharges better), etc...

      BTW, the batteries in the telco office would likely take up the same space - LiIon is a lot more power dense by mass, not by volume. A similar amount of energy takes about the same amount of volume. The difference is that the racking could be a heck of a lot lighter.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    4. Re:Yay for price drop by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, right, they'll make a loss on every sale but know they'll make up for it on volume...

      Seriously, do you think they'll dump billions of units at a loss "just because"?

    5. Re:Yay for price drop by dwywit · · Score: 1

      Lithium battery technology needs much more sophisticated charge/discharge/monitoring controllers than lead-acid. There's a bit of way to go before domestic PV/battery controllers are up to the task.

      My current set of lead-acid batteries will be at end-of-life in about 5 years, so it might be feasible to replace them with lithium at that time.

      --
      They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
    6. Re: Yay for price drop by CWCheese · · Score: 1

      abundant supply of product "should" cause price to drop according to economics, however, as we can see on a daily basis that seems to not be holding true in the fossil fuel (oil) world with the abundant supply of crude oil driving the per bbl price down to levels not seen in decades while the pump price for refined gasoline remains more than double the price which it was at when crude was previously selling at those low bbl price levels.

      one would expect no difference in the lithium market, abundant supply just means the profit margin will expand dramatically and consumers will still not see the benefit from economies of scale.

      sigh

      --
      Have a Day!
    7. Re: Yay for price drop by JanneM · · Score: 1

      Crude is the raw material. You still ned to manufacture and distribute the gasoline. As a guess, the refinery capacity hasn't increased in your area of the world. Nor is it likely to, as the trend is toward hybrids and all-electrics. Projected future consumption is not likely to support a large refinery project for the next 30-50 years.

      --
      Trust the Computer. The Computer is your friend.
    8. Re:Yay for price drop by lsatenstein · · Score: 1

      More importantly, will the cost drop? There is so much meddling in the market nowadays that you may pay less for things that are costing more to make, and vice versa.

      The Koch brothers will buy up the battery manufacturers and drive up prices.

      --
      Leslie Satenstein Montreal Quebec Canada
    9. Re:Yay for price drop by Tokolosh · · Score: 1

      Which will provide a big opening for Musk and any other such project seeking funding.

      --
      Prove anything by multiplying Huge Number times Tiny Number
  2. It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by Zobeid · · Score: 4, Informative
    1. Re:It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I was looking at lipo's last night. Still over 4x the cost of lead acid. I got my batteries @ ~$100/kwh. That's roughly the cost at a few places I've looked: walmart, costco, golf cart and auto repair shops. And that's with lifespan et al factored in.

    2. Re:It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by catchblue22 · · Score: 1

      I was looking at lipo's last night. Still over 4x the cost of lead acid. I got my batteries @ ~$100/kwh. That's roughly the cost at a few places I've looked: walmart, costco, golf cart and auto repair shops. And that's with lifespan et al factored in.

      I don't think what you said is true. Either you have not thought out what you posted and have not done the correct calculations, or you are just making it up. Here is an actual price comparison between lead acid batteries and Li-ion batteries. To summarize, lead acid batteries cost 0.76€ / kWh / cycle, while Li-ion batteries cost 0.42€ / kWh / cycle. That is, lead acid is 81% more expensive per kWh/cycle than Li-ion. In addition, lead acid batteries are bulky, stinky, heavy, and don't last very long. That means you will have to lug them in and out of your house with far too great a frequency, and doing so will not be fun.

      --
      This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when first he appears as a protector - Plato (423 to 327 BC)
    3. Re: It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Depth of discharge is an important factor. Lead Acid doesn't like to go deep. L-ion is happy to go deep.

    4. Re:It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That analysis is total bullshit. There are lead-acid batteries that perform better then that and can be discharged more than 50%. People with off-grid systems are getting much better results than that.

      Also, a C/5 discharge rate is extreme for lead-acid. Most are quoted at C/20, but even C/10 wouldn't be that bad. This is one area where lithium ion is better, although there are some lead-acid batteries that can be discharged 80% at C/4 rate.

    5. Re:It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      "People with off-grid systems are getting much better results than that."

      No they aren't. I sold them for a living. We wouldn't do anything beyond 50% DoD, and customers that did burned out their batteries.

      At any size around 5000Wh or larger the lipos started pulling ahead in lifetime cost. Once you factor in maintenance-free operation and the fact that they're half the size and weight, there's no contest. And that's when they cost 80/Wh.

    6. Re:It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by Spazmania · · Score: 2

      The only lead acids you're getting at that price are wet cell car batteries that are only good for starting a car. SLAs and gel cells suitable for deep cycle applications cost more than twice as much as you say.

      --
      Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion.
    7. Re:It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1
      $99 (these are the batteries I use in my solar house). Best wh/$ value. Trojans were better iirc, but didn't have the money for 8@6v and I found I didn't need them.

      $2400

    8. Re: It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Deep cycle batteries are designed to be discharged down as much as 80% time after time, and have much thicker plates. The major difference between a true deep cycle battery and others is that the plates are SOLID Lead plates - not sponge. This gives less surface area, thus less "instant" power like starting batteries need. Although these can be cycled down to 20% charge, the best lifespan vs cost method is to keep the average cycle at about 50% discharge. Unfortunately, it is often impossible to tell what you are really buying in some of the discount stores or places that specialize in automotive batteries. The golf car battery is quite popular for small systems and RV's.

      http://www.solar-electric.com/...

    9. Re:It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      $0.096/wh. Multiply by 4 to limit discharge to 75%.

    10. Re:It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I just bought a new car battery and Costco was a little cheaper than Walmart. Wasn't looking closely at marine, but may be worth you looking there next time if you didn't last time.

    11. Re:It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by rch7 · · Score: 1

      Except that lead batteries need frequent replacements, are too heavy and need constant refill service. They are crap and more expensive when you account for replacements.
      Or you can get salvaged Nissan Leaf battery for $2000-$3000 21kWh

    12. Re:It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by Spazmania · · Score: 1

      I stand corrected; you found an off-brand wet cell deep cycle battery instead of a wet cell car battery.

      --
      Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion.
    13. Re:It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by Khyber · · Score: 1

      Go shop alibaba. You can get them even cheaper.

      --
      Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
    14. Re: It's already happened; we're at $250/kWh now. by Enigma2175 · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately, it is often impossible to tell what you are really buying in some of the discount stores or places that specialize in automotive batteries

      The best way to determine if you are getting a "true" deep-cycle battery is to compare the weight. Batteries with solid lead plates will weigh significantly more than the fake deep cycles.

      --

      Enigma

  3. Australia's Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA). by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Really? Really? Is AREA already taken by the Australian Residential Eucalyptus Advocates or something?

    If you're going to do a mixed acronym like that, at least have the sense not to capitalize the 'n' "AREnA" is perfectly readable, and does not give the false impression of an n-word (necktie? nickel? it was definitely an n word) where one is not present.

    1. Re: Australia's Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA). by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Get mad

  4. Flow Batteries by myrdos2 · · Score: 4, Informative

    Had to look this one up! From the wikipedia:

    A flow battery, or redox flow battery (after reduction–oxidation), is a type of rechargeable battery where rechargeability is provided by two chemical components dissolved in liquids contained within the system and separated by a membrane.[1] Ion exchange (providing flow of electric current) occurs through the membrane while both liquids circulate in their own respective space.

    ... While it has technical advantages such as potentially separable liquid tanks and near unlimited longevity over most conventional rechargeables, current implementations are comparatively less powerful and require more sophisticated electronics.

    On the negative side, flow batteries are rather complicated in comparison with standard batteries as they may require pumps, sensors, control units and secondary containment vessels. The energy densities vary considerably but are, in general, rather low compared to portable batteries, such as the Li-ion.

    1. Re:Flow Batteries by fustakrakich · · Score: 2

      On the negative side, flow batteries are rather complicated in comparison with standard batteries as they may require pumps, sensors, control units and secondary containment vessels.

      Rube Goldberg reaches from the grave. For some reason people think complex means advanced.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    2. Re:Flow Batteries by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      These things are not going to be in your car. Power companies could build them out to massive scale; we're talking warehouse sized "batteries". So a little complexity is to be expected.

    3. Re:Flow Batteries by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Flow batteries are currently being investigated for grid-scale energy storage. The general thinking is that a staffed industrial plant can provide enough safety, monitoring, and control for the batteries to provide several megawatts of power. Since they are looking at some thing the size of an industrial plant, the density is not as important as the longevity. Such a plant will look more like a chemical refinery than a manufacturing plant. Today vanadium is the basis of the chemistry with the longest lifespan, but other chemicals can be used to offer different benefits.

      Advances in control systems have allowed smaller flow-battery systems to be viable. In this way, it could be viable for a business to power a site (in an appropriate location) with wind and battery, keeping a backup generator around for still days or emergencies.

    4. Re:Flow Batteries by Firethorn · · Score: 2

      Rube Goldberg reaches from the grave. For some reason people think complex means advanced

      Rube was about unnecessary complexity. A lot of our refining of technology is indeed about reducing complexity, leading to more reliable products. For example, a GenIII nuclear plant is supposed to have 50% fewer valves than a GenII. What does getting rid of half your valves and something like 30% of your piping do? It means that there's a lot less stuff to break, and you can build the remaining stuff sturdier with the freed up space.

      To get back to the flow batteries - a steam power plant is hella complex compared to an internal combustion engine, but at that scale the complexity pays for itself with added efficiency.

      Same deal with flow batteries. While they're unlikely to make sense in a car, when you're looking at extending power production or covering gaps at a wind or solar farm, flow batteries start looking simpler than assembling and managing the pile of conventional batteries that would be necessary for the same capacity. After all, with the flow battery, while the 'terminals' might be complex as heck, expanding storage is almost as simple as putting in another tank of electrolyte. Not having to put in a building, install racking, move in and wire X hundreds or thousands of batteries.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    5. Re:Flow Batteries by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds vaguely similar to a regenerative fuel cell. How do they compare?

      (Years ago I look at long-term energy storage solutions for a lunar base, where if you're using solar in the (2-week long) daytime you need something to tide you through the 2-week night. Fuel cells combined with electrolysis and cryogenic storage of LH2/LO2 looked pretty good, high energy density and efficiency, although you have to watch out for system losses especially of the hydrogen. These days lithium batteries would certainly be worth a look.)

    6. Re:Flow Batteries by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds like an industrial strength battery, enabled by extra complexity. Generation companies that would use these have staff to maintain such things. Now if someone could build a better mousetrap, with all the benefits but less complexity they would grab a large market share.

  5. Still a bad value by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Lead acid 6 v golf cart battery with over 100 Ah of usable capacity, or 0.6 kWh of storage (ie: 200+ Ah actual capacity, you never drain a lead acid battery flat) : $90. Deep cycle (because it's for powering golf carts) means you actually CAN drain 50% or more of it without damaging the battery at all.

    That's $150 per kWh, and you can hop on over to Sam's Club and buy one or more of them tonight.

    If you have the space to deal with them, which if you're using them for home you likely do, lead acid battery tech is going to beat out lithium ion for a long time yet (past 2020 apparently!)

    1. Re:Still a bad value by cunniff · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Lead is cheap but you get what you pay for.

      First, lead-acid has a shelf life even if you do not discharge the battery - the lead plates sulfate over time, reducing capacity. It is only partially reversible by occasional special charge/discharge cycles. This shelf life is something like 3-5 years, depending on how much capacity you are willing to lose.

      Second, lead-acid self-discharges. This means, unless you use the battery very close in time to when you charge it, you've wasted some of the energy you put into it. Trickle-charging only makes this worse, since you will always be dropping energy into the battery without getting most of it out.

      Third, lead-acid discharge voltages are strongly impacted by the current at which you discharge them - look up the Peukert exponent for the golf cart batteries you were quoting - it will be over 1.2, and probably higher, meaning that high current discharge will drain the battery much faster than expected.

      Finally, even deep cycle lead-acid batteries are slowly degraded even by the 50% discharge you quote. It only takes a few hundred cycles for capacity to be diminished by double-digit percentages. This is caused by plate erosion.

      Existing lithium cells don't have a known shelf-life (they probably have one, but we don't know what it is) - it could be 10 years or more. They have expected 80% discharge cycle counts of *thousands* rather than hundreds. And their Peukert exponent is very close to 1.00 since they don't have the same variable internal resistance characteristics of lead-acid.

      I have first-hand experience of this - I have used all three of deep-cycle flooded, deep-cycle sealed (AGM), and now Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO4) cells in my home-built electric vehicle conversions. My lead-acid shelf lives were right along with that 3-5 year expectations. The LiFePO4 cells are going on 2 years now with no measurable decrease in capacity.

    2. Re:Still a bad value by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Existing lithium cells don't have a known shelf-life

      My laptop would beg to differ.

    3. Re:Still a bad value by cunniff · · Score: 2

      That's not because of shelf life. That's because of overcharge and/or over-discharge - laptop vendors tend to create charge/discharge profiles that abuse the cells in the interest of quoting more hours of operation per charge. If you were to detach your laptop's battery from all electronics (including a battery monitor / BMS) you would find that it retains its charge for months or even years.

    4. Re:Still a bad value by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Existing lithium cells don't have a known shelf-life (they probably have one, but we don't know what it is) - it could be 10 years or more.
      Well you should know. And if you don't know, you can estimate the shelf life quite easily.
      Lithium Ion cells can be damaged by over-discharge, which occurs below ~2V cell voltage.

    5. Re:Still a bad value by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1

      Lithium ions still have a shelf life even with optimal use.

      There's essentially a form of corrosion going on inside the lithium ion pack, and after 5-10 years (depending on how it's stored and the pack's chemistry) it loses about 25% capacity, and the loss of capacity gets much faster after that.

      It helps to keep the pack at lower charge, and not permit it getting too hot, and not charging or discharging it too rapidly, but it still happens.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    6. Re:Still a bad value by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My laptop would beg to differ

      Your laptop is not using Lithium Iron Phosphate which is what you are replying to. Sadly everyone just keeps saying "lithium" when there are half a dozen technologies with that name.

    7. Re:Still a bad value by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I work in the marine industry. We've been using these thing for as long as I can remember. The rule is that you lose 40% of your battery capacity in about a year. The US coast guard and navy swaps them out every two years whether they are bad or not, and I've seen them go bad. If you don't use it, and you keep it at least 50% charged they will last a while, but who the hell does that. Lead acid batteries are heavy. An 8D can weigh 150 lb's or more and those are about 200 Ah when they are new. Use it a lot and you'll drop dramatically.

    8. Re:Still a bad value by adolf · · Score: 1

      I've seen high-quality (Motorola batteries for 2-way radios) lithium rechargeable batteries lose 40% of their capacity in 3 years, sitting in their factory-sealed packaging in a desk drawer.

      And I'm not talking about self-discharge, but permanent capacity loss. But since you mention self-discharge...

      I've seen barely-used, only-a-few-weeks-old Porter Cable power tool batteries that would discharge overnight in the back of a truck in a climate-controlled garage, connected to nothing.

      But since these things are impossible, I guess I'm imagining the day I delivered replacement Motorola batteries to a customer whose spare batteries weren't. I suppose that I was dreaming the day that I charged up all of the Porter Cable batteries, before foolishly trying to use them the next day.

    9. Re:Still a bad value by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and THIS is where I have to chime in! The OP is more true than he knows. I recently upgraded 3 dell laptops from Windows 7 home to Windows 10. Windows 10 kept telling me 'YOUR BATTERY IS DEFECTIVE' as did the Dell BIOS. Upgraded to Windows 10...hey guess what folks...magically a 6 year old laptop has a 5 hour battery life. Any class action lawyers out there need an IT dude to testify? (posted anonymously to remove my sig)

  6. Spontaneous combustion by QuietLagoon · · Score: 1, Interesting
    Yeah, I want a pile of those in my basement....

    .
    The money I save via the solar panels, I'll probably lose due to the higher fire insurance premiums.

    Why lithium batteries keep catching fire

    ...Lithium batteries are widely used because of their high energy density: in other words, their ability to store a lot of energy in a lightweight, compact form. But they have a tendency to cause expensive machinery to go up in smoke....

    1. Re:Spontaneous combustion by kheldan · · Score: 1

      I have the same question, and others. How sustainable, really, are these types of batteries? Recyclability? Cost effectiveness over the long term, including recycling/rebuilding them? I'm talking about 'cradle-to-grave' costs, both in monetary units and in costs to the environment. For the time being things like solar and wind power are probably our best bet to reduce dependence on fossil fuel use, and the ability to store power generated is critical to these technologies' usefulness being maximized, but if we're just 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' then it's pointless. Really, the sooner we have a permanent, large-scale solution (like practical fusion power) the better, but we have to make do as best we can in the meantime.

      --
      Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
    2. Re:Spontaneous combustion by FranTaylor · · Score: 1

      I have the same question, and others. How sustainable, really, are these types of batteries? Recyclability?

      just curious, what is your plan of action when you get the information you are looking for?

    3. Re:Spontaneous combustion by kheldan · · Score: 1

      My interest is purely academic; I'm not a homeowner, and until someone starts selling small pickup trucks that are 100% electric, I'm not even in the market to be a direct consumer of any of this type of technology, but that doesn't mean that I'm disinterested in the details of it. If there turns out to be widespread adoption of it I might end up being an indirect consumer of it, though, if for instance the local power company decides to start employing it to store power generated from their own solar arrays.

      --
      Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
    4. Re:Spontaneous combustion by FranTaylor · · Score: 1

      you are asking the wrong questions, you should be asking "how much more sustainable is this than what we have now"

      your current vehicle is an environmental disaster, but you don't seem to be in much of a hurry to do anything about it

    5. Re:Spontaneous combustion by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      I have the same question, and others. How sustainable, really, are these types of batteries? Recyclability? Cost effectiveness over the long term, including recycling/rebuilding them? I'm talking about 'cradle-to-grave' costs, both in monetary units and in costs to the environment. For the time being things like solar and wind power are probably our best bet to reduce dependence on fossil fuel use, and the ability to store power generated is critical to these technologies' usefulness being maximized, but if we're just 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' then it's pointless. Really, the sooner we have a permanent, large-scale solution (like practical fusion power) the better, but we have to make do as best we can in the meantime.

      That is precisely the important question, and it implies total systemic cost to society. Its easy to skip over that, but it sure would be nice to be able to lay all technologies side by side with a reasonable assessment of total systemic cost. Unfortunately, it is very hard to do.

    6. Re:Spontaneous combustion by kheldan · · Score: 2

      First of all, I want to know what I want to know, when I want to know it; please don't sit there and tell me what I want to know, OK? Secondly, since what I want in a vehicle doesn't exist yet, so what am I supposed to do?

      I've read through about the last 100 of your comments, and I've seen a trend. I'm not here to get in arguments just to get in an argument, so please don't, I'm not interested, OK? Thanks.

      --
      Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
    7. Re:Spontaneous combustion by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > But they have a tendency to cause expensive machinery to go up in smoke

      That's li*co* batteries, not the li*po* batteries we're talking about here. Lipo batteries are just as safe as lead acid, at the cost of decreased energy density compared to lico.

    8. Re:Spontaneous combustion by swb · · Score: 1

      I just read this, which could be total horseshit, but it looks reasonable:

      http://www.waste-management-wo...

      Lithium only accounts for 3% of the cost of a battery. Recycled lithium is 5 times more expensive than 'new' lithium.

      I think they said that recycling's biggest economic benefit is stabilizing the price fluctuation in lithium if demand for 'new' lithium exceeds resource output. I don't know if there's a point at which you don't need much new lithium for batteries because basically you will have built all the lithium batteries you will ever need and as you need new batteries you will just be using recycled lithium already mined.

      I could see where battery storage gets good and cheap enough that, when coupled with solar, reaches the point where you get close enough to practical off-grid that the promise of free solar (minus capital investment) causes people to get more energy efficient.

      If I could have 500kWh of lithium in my house and my daily solar production average was 5kw over my all day consumption, then having deep battery reserves would more than cover a run of bad weather. You could drop 10kWh negative for a couple of months and just draw down your battery to make up the difference and then slowly recharge back up in better weather.

      Even with best case solar, I'd be under water by 10kWh now. My summer power bill tells me I'd need nearly 60kWh per day and I would bet that's a lot of periods of over 5kW when the central AC runs.

    9. Re:Spontaneous combustion by thestuckmud · · Score: 4, Informative

      Uh... no.

      "Lipo" (lithium-polymer) batteries are subject to thermal runaway (exploding into flame) if abused. Plus they can be more vulnerable for reasons including the typically soft packaging (OTOH, cell phones are not often bursting into flames in people's pockets). Maybe you were thinking of lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) batteries, which have lower voltage and lower specific energy density, but are more robust?

      In any case, I thought *we* were discussing all sorts of batteries here, including a variety of lithium chemistries.

    10. Re:Spontaneous combustion by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Sustainability: 'Very'
      Recyclability: Effectively Total. Only problem right now is that there isn't enough of them to justify the recycling centers that are present for lead-acid types. That's quickly changing.
      Long term cost effectiveness: Improving all the time as we improve manufacturing.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    11. Re:Spontaneous combustion by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      My friend did a 100% electric pickup truck conversion in his high school class, so it can't be that difficult.

    12. Re:Spontaneous combustion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All battery chemistries will have issues of abused. Lithium's failure modes can be spectacular, but Lead-Acid has it's safty issues too.

      They're messy. They're full of a rather caustic acid. They outgas an explosive gas that is hazardous without proper ventilation

      They're very, very, very heavy and are full of lead, a heavy metal that is a nasty pollutant.

      We've had almost two hundred years experience with lead-acid so we've work most of the kinks out. Lithium chems are pretty new in comparison but are pretty well understood today. Like pretty much anything in general use they're only dangerous when mishandled, abused, or improperly manufactured.

    13. Re:Spontaneous combustion by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      I have a separate shed for my solar (inverter, batteries and charger). Feeds directly into the house on a 120v line. Charger also has a programmable fan option to turn on a vent fan while charging. I don't us it, but it's there.

    14. Re:Spontaneous combustion by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      Stupid article, complete FUD, batteries don't make a showing in the top ten causes of fires. Do battery fires make the news?, sure - and so do people getting attacked by sharks, that doesn't mean either are common events or something to worry about.

      The TWO Tesla cars that caught fire were in extreme vehicle accidents. Are you expecting your house to suddenly get skewered by massive shards of metal?

      Having a quality home battery storage system will not push up your fire insurance premiums, in fact it'd likely reduce the likeliness of a fire because the wiring would get looked at when it's installed and old sub-standard wiring can cause fires.

      --
      Waterfox - a Firefox fork with legacy extension support, security updates and better privacy by default.
    15. Re:Spontaneous combustion by kheldan · · Score: 1

      You're joking, right? I'm not gutting a pickup I'm still making payments on to do a hack-job 'conversion' to electric. Also, it needs to have at least a 300 mile range (more like 400 mile) on a single charge, and I don't have time, space, or money to do anything like that in the first place. When Toyota or Tesla or some other manufacturer comes out with what I want then we'll talk about change, but if it involves hamstringing my entire life to do it, then it's a non-starter.

      --
      Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
    16. Re:Spontaneous combustion by Barsteward · · Score: 1

      Thats what i've never understood. the need for an electric van for the huge delivery market must be huge, as they are vans they could put larger batteries to get longer ranges in them as they are not so constrained on prettiness of the vehicle to hide the battery. Fast luxurious cars are made because of the "glamour status" gained, no-one will get glamorous coverage or kudos for developing a practical vehicle.

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    17. Re:Spontaneous combustion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and the reason is, RANGE.

      who the fuck wants a delivery van that ca only drive around for 2 hours before having to charge for 8 hours?

    18. Re:Spontaneous combustion by kheldan · · Score: 1

      Way back in the 90's when I first started hearing about hydrogen fuel cell technology, I said I'd get in line to buy a vehicle using it as soon as they came out with it, sure that it was the future, but unfortunately that never materialized for whatever reason (not totally sure if it was because it wasn't practical, or if it got killed off by other interests, or what). Now, as you say, we've got expensive plug-in electrics that may be very nice, but are very expensive, and we've got tiny little sub-compacts that are all electric, but really not suitable for my uses. The pickup I've got literally has the best fuel economy of any small pickup I could find at the time, but it's still burning gasoline and it's still expensive to operate compared to what recharging a battery bank would cost. I'd even take a fully electric motorcycle for daily commuting, but you don't see that available anywhere either now do you? It'd have to be highway legal and that's the deal-breaker right there (some little scooter isn't going to cut it). The best I've got is a motorcycle that gets 45mpg. At the rate things are going I don't think I'll live to see a world where you can get any configuration of vehicle in a fully electric version, and that's sad because I would totally go for it. I do all my own maintenance whenever necessary, and I'd be thrilled with how little maintenance an all-electric vehicle would be, comparatively speaking.

      --
      Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
    19. Re:Spontaneous combustion by kheldan · · Score: 1

      The trick there would be to have enough service infrastructure installed so that high-capacity rapid-charging stations would be available where you needed them, and, naturally, high-capacity charging ability where you park your truck or van at night. Ironically it's easier to install such a thing wherever you need it (the public grid is pretty much everywhere) but you don't see gas stations installing them do you? Seriously, most major gas stations have some parking spaces, would it really be that much of an imposition for them to install charging stations at each one, making a little profit off the electricity cost? The cost of installation and maintenance would be trivial compared to what gasoline and diesel storage and dispensing equipment costs.

      --
      Are YOU using the TOOL, or is the TOOL using YOU? Think about it!
  7. More batteries = more polution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Is it just me or are we creating more hazardous material and keeping it in our homes as we push this whole "clean energy" initiative? We're talking about creating millions of tons of batteries that contain nasty chemicals and hazardous materials and we will keep them in our homes.

    I'll stay on the grid, thanks.

    1. Re:More batteries = more polution by unimacs · · Score: 2

      Natural gas explosions occur about every other day in the US and over 400 people die per year from carbon monoxide poisoning.

      Our existing sources of power and heat aren't exactly risk free.

    2. Re:More batteries = more polution by AaronW · · Score: 1

      In terms of hazardous materials, Lithium batteries are pretty benein. They do not contain heavy metals nor are they considered particularly toxic. If they were a fire hazard then BEVs should be catching fire left and right.

      --
      This post is encrypted twice with ROT-13. Documenting or attempting to crack this encryption is illegal.
    3. Re:More batteries = more polution by FranTaylor · · Score: 1

      Is it just me or are we creating more hazardous material and keeping it in our homes

      in many places they actually pump explosive gases into your house with pipelines

    4. Re:More batteries = more polution by WalksOnDirt · · Score: 1

      It's hard to find a lithium ion battery that doesn't contain Li, Fe or Mn, all of which are heavy metals for the purposes of this discussion. They are not as bad as lead, though.

      --
      a,e,i,o,u and sometimes w and y (at be if of up cwm by)
    5. Re:More batteries = more polution by WalksOnDirt · · Score: 1

      ...contain Li, Fe or Mn...

      Sorry, I meant Ni, not Li.

      --
      a,e,i,o,u and sometimes w and y (at be if of up cwm by)
    6. Re:More batteries = more polution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They are risk free to ***ME***. I don't use natural gas in my home so gas explosions and carbon monoxide aren't hazards I have to worry about.

    7. Re:More batteries = more polution by AaronW · · Score: 1

      The batteries in my car contain lithium, aluminum and cobalt, no nickel. Also, lithium batteries are fully recyclable and there are already programs in place to recycle those batteries. Even the NiMH batteries used in some hybrids are fully recyclable and the batteries in my Prius had a refund for returning dead batteries. At least in terms of manufacturing the lithium batteries, Tesla is planning to fully power their manufacturing with solar power. Lithium batteries also only contain about 3% lithium.

      --
      This post is encrypted twice with ROT-13. Documenting or attempting to crack this encryption is illegal.
    8. Re:More batteries = more polution by Fwipp · · Score: 1

      I recommend not eating the batteries, even if your diet is a little short on Iron.

    9. Re:More batteries = more polution by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1

      I hope you never drive anywhere either, because gasoline has a significantly higher risk profile per mile than lithium ion batteries.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    10. Re:More batteries = more polution by WalksOnDirt · · Score: 1

      The only aluminum containing batteries used in cars that I know of use Panasonic's NCA chemistry. The N stands for nickel. Cobalt is another heavy metal I forgot to mention.

      Yes, recycling is much more about the nickel or cobalt than the lithium.

      Tesla's solar power promise is more of a gimmick than anything else, but at least it does no harm.

      --
      a,e,i,o,u and sometimes w and y (at be if of up cwm by)
    11. Re:More batteries = more polution by AaronW · · Score: 1

      Cobalt is not a heavy metal and is in fact essential for life and is a constituent of vitamin B12 and not all that toxic. While nickel can be toxic in some cases it is also plays an important role in plant and microorganism biology. Nickel also is not a heavy metal. Lithium also is also likely an essential trace element for mammals although they have not yet identified any physiological role. Aluminum also is not really toxic. If nickel were all that toxic then nobody would be using stainless steel cookware and silverware since it leaches into the food.

      While nobody is suggesting that anyone eat the contents of lithium batteries, they are not considered toxic waste and can be disposed of in municipal wastes in most places, though it is more profitable to recycle them.

      --
      This post is encrypted twice with ROT-13. Documenting or attempting to crack this encryption is illegal.
    12. Re:More batteries = more polution by WalksOnDirt · · Score: 1

      Cobal is a heavy metal. From my link in my first reply:

      COBALT POISONING

      Cobalt, used in making jet engines, may cause nausea, vomiting, lack of appetite (anorexia), ear ringing (tinnitus), nerve damage, respiratory diseases, an unusually large thyroid gland (goiter), and/or heart and/or kidney damage.

      I was quite surprised a few years ago when I read that iron was a heavy metal, especially considering how important it is for red blood cells, but I looked it up and it was.

      Aluminum is not a heavy metal, and I never claimed it was.

      --
      a,e,i,o,u and sometimes w and y (at be if of up cwm by)
  8. Environmentally friendly and sustainable? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How are batteries of environmentally friendly and sustainable?

    1. Re:Environmentally friendly and sustainable? by AaronW · · Score: 1

      There is no shortage of lithium and the batteries can be fully recycled at the end of life.

      --
      This post is encrypted twice with ROT-13. Documenting or attempting to crack this encryption is illegal.
    2. Re:Environmentally friendly and sustainable? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Our batteries are fine. Thanks for asking.
      - environmentally friendly and sustainable

    3. Re:Environmentally friendly and sustainable? by thestuckmud · · Score: 2

      How are batteries of environmentally friendly and sustainable?

      Batteries are an enabling technology that can store intermittently available renewable energy for convenient use. Think wind powered cars and solar street lights, both can be made practical through the use of battery storage.

  9. Bet u another battery tech will beat both in price by justcauseisjustthat · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I bet you another battery tech will beat both in price and performance, over the next 5 years battery tech is going to take off (it's already started) and what we use today will be primitive in comparison.

    Not to mention fusion will finally be feasible which will spin this whole discussion.

  10. If you want safety and long term reliability by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

    You can't go wrong with nickel-iron. You will need to add a large extension to the house though.

    --
    “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    1. Re:If you want safety and long term reliability by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 2

      Well the do have a higher self discharge rate but as far as ability to stand up to abuse and neglect they really are hard to beat.

      --
      Time to offend someone
  11. ROBOTS!!! by EmperorOfCanada · · Score: 3, Interesting

    When I am building robots my battery choices very much are the limiting factor in my designs and the final capabilities of the robot. I can go for big lumbering beasts with piles of lead acid. Or I can break the bank with enough lipo to keep a laptop factory running for a week. Or I can pair my design down until it is simply a toy. Other options are to make it sound like a garden tool and put some kind of gasoline motor in.

    But if I had a reasonably priced source of reasonably power dense batteries then my robots would improve proportionally. For this doesn't just increase the power available to my existing designs but it also reduces the overall costs of a robot. For instance the more efficient the motor or cost computer module, generally the higher the cost. But it would be great if I could slap in any old small motherboard, and use run of the mill DC motors instead of ultra cool brushless.

    Then whole other motor systems become possible. Linear motors, pneumatic systems, hydraulic systems, etc.

    So a revolution in batteries would precipitate a revolution in robots; real robots doing real jobs in the real world.

    1. Re:ROBOTS!!! by FranTaylor · · Score: 2

      real robots doing real jobs in the real world.

      apparently the software will just write and debug itself

      or maybe space aliens will write the code for us

      no way humans are gonna do it

    2. Re:ROBOTS!!! by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      or maybe space aliens will write the code for us -- no way humans are gonna do it

      Baxter says hi.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  12. kWh? by mattwarden · · Score: 1

    Why are articles citing battery sizes in kWh these days? How are they even coming up with that, exactly, and how do I determine the Ah equivalent, which is what batteries are actually sized in? It's hard for me to do the math on these numbers and compare to AGMs, FLAs, etc.

    1. Re:kWh? by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 2

      "how do I determine the Ah equivalent, which is what batteries are actually sized in"

      That's how lead-acid and other older technologies are actually sized in. Several reasons why. One is they have a slow decline in voltage during discharge, so over the entire cycle the voltage may vary perhaps 35%. Combined with that is the voltage sag. So for these batteries you have a wide span of curves.

      In contrast, lipos are *much* flatter. They hold their voltage until they're 90% discharged (or more) and then suddenly fall flat. They also don't have the same sort of sag curves. So you can generally get away with assuming the kWh and Ah are linear, and kWh is far easier to use in practice.

    2. Re:kWh? by Jerry+Atrick · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Properly calculated kWh has the voltage drop baked into the calculation, amp hours don't (and what would it even mean?). More simply though, kWh is a measure of energy stored, amp hours isn't without doing that time volts calculation. So kWh is a lot easier to compare different technologies with. We still regularly compare an online for like comparisons like phone batteries, where the voltage curves are similar.

    3. Re:kWh? by Firethorn · · Score: 2

      Why are articles citing battery sizes in kWh these days?

      Probably because it's a more useful metric, as it tells you the total *energy* in the battery without extra steps. To determine the Ah equivalent, you'd need to multiple by 1k, then divide by the battery's voltage. After all, to convert Ah into Wh, you multiply by the battery's voltage.

      quote the battery's size in kWh and you don't need to know the voltage(for the generic purposes of an article). Volts for extremely large battery packs are somewhat optional, after all, it all depends on how you wire them.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    4. Re:kWh? by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Ah x volts = kwh

  13. Not even close... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Where do they get these bullshit numbers from? Even Bob Lutz (considered the "father" of the Chevy Volt) pegged battery costs at $350 kwh...THREE YEARS AGO. Not only may the numbers be from earlier in the program, they're for batteries using an expensive prismatic design. I'd be very surprised if Tesla isn't getting their batteries for under $200 kwh today.

    1. Re:Not even close... by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1

      Turns out that the battery price is dropping at about 8% per annum right now, and also the price paid for a battery depends on battery quantity- Nissan and Tesla pay less for their batteries than other manufacturers because they buy so many of them.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
  14. hydrogen lead acid by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    There are lead acid batteries, which last a few thousand charge cycles, but they produce hydrogen gas, which is bad for a consumer product. Lithium batteries have the advantage of being light, and somewhat safe. That is an advantage for electronic devices, and electric cars. For big, stationary electricity storage, not so much.

  15. Electric Motorcycles by LionKimbro · · Score: 2

    I'm eagerly anticipating affordable electric motorcycles.

    I think Brammo and Zeros are rated at ~ 200-500 MPG equivalent?

    That's way better mileage than even a fully loaded (everybody standing) bus gets in peak hours.

    The problem with the electric motorcycles today is the price tag. The prices have dropped recently (from, say, $19,000 to $14,000, with ~$12,000 for very low end bikes that can't go very far,) but they need to go down further and increase in range.

  16. Oil at 30USD a barrel, why renewables? by Gel214th · · Score: 1

    With the price of oil this low, and likely to stay that way for many years, what economic motivation will people have to go with renewable energy now?

    It made a lot of sense with oil at 100, 80, 90 dollars a barrel and the price at the pump at ridiculous levels. But when the price of gas and electricity drops in response to oil prices, what will happen to investments in renewables. I'm thinking that they suddenly will not seem as attractive anymore from a purely economic standpoint.

    --
    -Gel214th
    1. Re:Oil at 30USD a barrel, why renewables? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oil is low for two reasons, one is Iran and the other is China/world econcomy. Iran is expected to ramp up production very shortly and China economy is expected to dwindle for next two years. Therefore, we are looking at about two years of oversupply, population growth and improved quality of living standards around the globe pretty much insure that oil will be back to $90/barrel in two years time.

    2. Re:Oil at 30USD a barrel, why renewables? by Gel214th · · Score: 1

      If Iran ramps up production, and there is even MORE supply, how will that help the price of Oil to rise?

      If the Chinese economy dwindles and there is even less DEMAND, how will that help the price of oil to rise?

      Iran pumping more = even more Supply.
      China economy faltering = even less Demand.

      So why would the price of oil increase?

      --
      -Gel214th
    3. Re:Oil at 30USD a barrel, why renewables? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      China is on two year down cycle.

    4. Re:Oil at 30USD a barrel, why renewables? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He's saying it will decrease for these reasons for about two years. During this time, the lower price will lead to increasing use and therefore greater demand, which will offset the temporary drop in prices and return prices to a higher equilibrium level.

    5. Re:Oil at 30USD a barrel, why renewables? by rch7 · · Score: 1

      Dream on, commodity bubble is over and commodity cycles last decades. OPEC is irrelevant now, they have minority of the market and can't even control each others output anymore. You will not see stable $100 oil price for next decade.

    6. Re:Oil at 30USD a barrel, why renewables? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's fine then. You can continue to rely on oil and the estimate of the lower price for the next decade. In the meantime, a lot of people, with a lot of knowledge of energy usage and economics and stability in the middle east have decided to invest in batteries and renewables. It'll be interesting to see over the next few years who is right.

      In truth, the answer is that diversification is the way to go. Oil may well stay priced low, but investors are properly hedging their bets by looking across the energy sector. It's unlikely that an investment in battery tech will not pay off, whether it's bigger or smaller than investment in fossil fuels over the same period is almost irrelevant since there are significant risks: war in the middle east, global warming and carbon taxes, supply and demand issues. So investors look at the risk of investing in both or either and spread their risk based on their risk appetite.

  17. Won't be necessary by sideslash · · Score: 2

    Who cares about cheap batteries in 2020. I read that fusion power will supply a veritable firehose of free power for the whole world, and solving the pesky remaining engineering challenges should only take about 15 years. :p

    1. Re:Won't be necessary by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You will still need batteries in your electric car even in the energy is free at the plug.

    2. Re:Won't be necessary by sideslash · · Score: 1

      Good point. The thing I most love about those electric cars is their lack of internal combustion engines, and the "whoooosh" sound they make going down the roadway.

  18. Erm... by Solandri · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The 130-page report (PDF) shows that Li-on batteries will drop from $550 per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2014 to $200 per kWh by 2020

    The going rate for residential electricity in the U.S. is about $0.11/kWh. So basically if these batteries charge/discharge once per day (as the case would be for solar), and you want the batteries to only add (say) 20% to the price of the generated electricity in order for it to remain cost-competitive (note: wind is nearly cost-competitive, solar is still about 2x-3x more expensive), then it currently takes $550 per kWh / ($0.11 per kWh * 20% * 365 cycles/yr) = 68.5 years for these batteries to pay for themselves, but by 2020 it will take 27.4 years. Yay progress?

    Unless the levelized price for renewable generation drops substantially below that of coal, I don't see how this will "spur renewable energy adoption" except for regions where electricity prices are substantially higher (e.g. Hawaii, $0.30/kWh)

    1. Re:Erm... by thestuckmud · · Score: 1

      Unless the levelized price for renewable generation drops substantially below that of coal, I don't see how this will "spur renewable energy adoption" except for regions where electricity prices are substantially higher (e.g. Hawaii, $0.30/kWh)

      Excellent point. Now... where can I get a 100 mile long extension cord for my electric car?

    2. Re:Erm... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Coal is currently profitable because of heavy cost externalization.

      Namely pollution (The health costs and environmental damage come out of the public's pocket), and more recently the exploitative abuse/pension stealing of coal mine workers.

      Pay the real cost of coal and it's not so cheap.

    3. Re:Erm... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're 100% correct, and this is why it's extremely important that coal pollution costs never be internalized.
      The reader may think I'm being facetious, but this is actually the result politicians in the USA reliably enforce.

    4. Re:Erm... by wchin · · Score: 2

      Tesla PowerPack is being sold at $250/kWh. It is most cost effective at shifting energy from the lowest cost time periods to the highest cost time periods (peak shaving) where the demand charges can be extreme. At the consumer pricing of near $350/kWh now, the costs for regions like Hawaii make sense already. There are also those willing to pay slightly more either in areas that are difficult to be on-grid or where the grid is unreliable.

    5. Re:Erm... by rch7 · · Score: 2

      You already can get them at around $250/kWh. By 2020 it will be $100/kWh. The study uses some hopelessly outdated data.

    6. Re:Erm... by whh3 · · Score: 2

      I wish that there was a standard method for "accounting" these externalities. Do companies that run coal mines or plants forecast or hedge against the possibility of future lawsuits related to pollution? If so, who determines that hedge amount? Are they buying insurance against these eventualities? If so, what do the actuarial tables say for such things. If we could at least quantify these externalities, we could start looking at the real cost of these things.

      Of course, that is not to say that these companies would eventually be subjected to these costs. We know that they won't be as long as coal and oil production are linked to the survival of states. But, sometimes seeing dollar amounts are more enticing for changing people's behavior than "long term health effects".

      --
      remove nospam. to email!
    7. Re:Erm... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you fill the batteries in the low-price off-peak hours (admittedly not useful for solar except on weekends) and sell the energy during peak hours you can make a profit. Pumped storage facilities do just this. Unfortunately the good locations are mostly taken. Once batteries are cheap enough it will be profitable for them to use this method as well. That is, no renewable source is even needed, just fill the batteries from the wholesale market at night, sell during peak.

      Adding extra storage capacity would also be a benefit to grid reliability because it can act as a reserve in case of unit outages (and doesn't have the supply issues that natural gas peakers sometimes have, especially in the winter). Long term, if you keep adding storage capacity to act as reserves, this works to reduce the maximum generation capacity needed by enabling you to effectively flatten the load curve by offsetting additional load above some baseline with stored energy.

      At some point battery prices will drop low enough that state utility commissions will allow utilities to recover their costs for investing in the batteries. Utilities will buy them and include the cost + their standard markup into the distribution rate base. I don't know what that price point for commissions or wholesale storage companies would be, so this seems like an interesting topic to look into.

    8. Re:Erm... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      highest cost time periods (peak shaving)

      Just how hairy are you?

    9. Re:Erm... by adolf · · Score: 1

      The Tesla PowerPack is a 100kWh battery.

      100kWh * $250 = $25,000.

      I doubt it can pay for itself before it dies of old age in a consumer application. (Which is no surprise, since it's not being marketed toward consumers.)

  19. Re:Bet u another battery tech will beat both in pr by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 2

    battery tech is going to take off

    Why? Batteries have been researched for hundreds of years and is limited to mixing chemicals with known electric potentials. Lipo's are 25 years old now and were the last of major significance.

  20. Batter prices. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

    Lithium battery technology needs much more sophisticated charge/discharge/monitoring controllers than lead-acid. There's a bit of way to go before domestic PV/battery controllers are up to the task.

    From my review of the situation, it's more that they're different. Yes, you can get away with a dumber charger on lead-acid, but when you're doing domestic PV with a large battery array, you want a sophisticated charger anyways.

    Same deal with LiIon, really. the minimum charger is a bit more complicated, but again, as the size of the battery increases so doesn't the sophistication of the charger to handle it. Tesla chargers, for example, are really fancy, but we're talking about a HUGE array here, capable of powering the average house for around 2 days.

    As such, from what I've read, theres are 'smart' LiIon batteries that are capable of working with a dumb lead-acid charger and thus working fine - see LiIon replacements for car & motorcycle batteries that are drop-in replacements. They handle the safe charging aspects on their own.

    But if you have a solar setup, you don't have a dumb charger, thus conflict emerges. So yeah, you'd have to change out the charger at that time. Though when I looked at solar last year, the battery controllers the store had were compatible with Lead-Acid, NiMH, and Lithium. You know your own system though.

    And yes. If you have a system currently that's working, the last thing I'd do would be to suggest replacing it before it's EOL.

    Just keep an open mind when replacement time does come around.

    --
    I don't read AC A human right
    1. Re:Batter prices. by dwywit · · Score: 1

      I'll have to chase up the supplier and see what they've been developing - www.plasmatronics.com.au - the website is geocities-bad but the products are good, and the support is great, e.g. my older, secondary controller which was slaved to the main controller developed a fault and kept resetting. It was way out of warranty but they fixed it free anyway.

      The PL series from them are reasonably smart as far as lead-acid technology goes - PWM, adjustable boost/absorb/float cycle timing, presets for flooded-cell or sealed gel-cell, periodic equalisation, ability to switch to a secondary battery bank or alternative load when bank 1 reaches float, etc, but I've not seen anything relating to lithium technology. It wouldn't be a problem if I had to put in new controllers for a lithium battery bank - the PL controllers are very desirable on the second-hand market.

      --
      They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
    2. Re:Batter prices. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Well, you have things like this available: http://genasun.com/all-product...

      As for the value of your used equipment, it might be more complicated - if 'everybody' is putting in lithium-ion in 5 years, it might turn your controller into the equivalent of a VCR when DVDs reign supreme.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
  21. Re:Bet u another battery tech will beat both in pr by Jeremi · · Score: 1

    Why? Batteries have been researched for hundreds of years and is limited to mixing chemicals with known electric potentials.

    The difference is in the amount of research that is going on. Between the laptop industry, the mobile phone industry, and the electric car industry, the amount of money and man-hours being invested into commercial battery technology over the last 5 years dwarfs the previous efforts. Advances in battery technology are being discovered every week.

    --


    I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  22. Re:Bet u another battery tech will beat both in pr by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    and how many practical ones have been released?

    Seen hundreds of "Press releases" (stock manipulation hype news as I like to call it!!)

    But actual "You can buy this now!" no, pretty much fuck all.

    And if you notice most are not about basic chemistry (finding new "elements" that have higher density or anything useful like that), more about changing the structures used (better anode, cathode design, increased surface area for faster discharge/charging).

    And that is the problem, Batteries have NOT advanced that much over 100 years compared to other technology, as it's mainly a problem with basic chemistry V's energy density.

    Wishing for a miracle new element that will change the basic's ain't going to happen, so wake up to the real world!!.

  23. Khyber: How's "eating your words" taste? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "NOD32 detects a trojan in APK's HOSTS bullshit." - by Khyber (864651) on Saturday August 22, 2015 @01:02PM (#50370415)

    VirusTotal & NOD32 SHOW IT COMPLETELY CLEAN IN ITS EXES

    https://www.virustotal.com/en/...

    AND

    https://www.virustotal.com/en/...

    There's only 2 exe's & 5 text files in it - The exe's are proven clean as shown above in the 2 links from VirusTotal, the installer's a SFX rar (keeps it 2mb smaller on download) - that's NO virus!

    (Unless YOU know of a way that .txt files are "viruses")

    ---

    "he's tying to get your fucking information." - by Khyber (864651) on Saturday August 22, 2015 @01:02PM (#50370415)

    My program doesn't transmit outward ONLY intake of data from 10 reputable sources in the security community!

    ---

    "APK is apparently too fucking stupid to do this at the ROUTER level where it's most effective" - by Khyber (864651) on Saturday August 22, 2015 @01:02PM (#50370415)

    You believe in "eggshell security" which fails per -> http://www.theregister.co.uk/2...

    A TRULY COMPETENT NETWORK ADMIN WOULD DO FAR MORE THAN MERE PERIMETER LEVEL SECURITY @ ROUTER LEVEL!

    (Right down to the endpoints/network nodes level in PC workstations also using tools you already have in hosts + firewalls (vs. "piling on 'MOAR'" that's inefficient & not nearly as effective in slower usermode browser addons)).

    ---

    "Windows 10 has hardcoded IPs and bypasses HOSTs." - by Khyber (864651) on Saturday August 22, 2015 @01:02PM (#50370415)

    Windows ONLY bypasses hosts files for Windows update (Win8 & below) & for the tracking "telemetry" in Windows 10 (this is going to KILL Windows 10, mark my words - nobody likes tracking -> http://localghost.org/posts/a-... - test it yourself.

    ---

    "Browsers can bypass HOSTs as well." - by Khyber (864651) on Saturday August 22, 2015 @01:02PM (#50370415)

    WTF? They'd be bypassing the IP stack itself, hosts are part of it - since that's impossible? You've proven yourself a moron, again.

    APK

    P.S.=> See subject & "EAT YOUR WORDS"... apk

    1. Re:Khyber: How's "eating your words" taste? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know, when your ass ass gets busted on harassment charges, I'm going to laugh. Khyber, Barbara, hell right now DICE could file a suit against you or file charges, especially since you've been banned from here.

      And you're stupid enough to put your initials and name to everything you post, making identification quick and easy. Ditto the posting pattern you follow.

  24. Not really by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's not dropping for the "right" or sustainably reasons: it's mostly an inventory oversupply problem as NOTHING has improved technologically. Just another symptom of deflationary collapse triggered by the fact no one can afford to buy things in the first place. For this reason it won't have any effect on green energy adoption. Sorry to be the messenger.

  25. Re:Bet u another battery tech will beat both in pr by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Fusion will be feasible in 5 years?"

    Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahhaahhahaahahahahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!!!

    I'll bet you a year's pay that fusion won't even be feasible in 25 years.

  26. R O T F L M A O: Try it... apk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    See subject: What YOU seem to forget is that I never start it. I only finish it.

    * Do you HONESTLY think I don't have everyone who's ever given me guff here NOT tracked thus against that, WAY ahead of time? I do, just so you know...

    I.E.-> By starting with me, they documented it for me in fact by trolling/harassing me, first, every single time.

    (Me? Heh - I am gloating @ them, just like YOU NOW Khyber by ac post - lol, rightfully so, in righteous indignation AND to give them a dose of their OWN medicine in return!)

    APK

    P.S.=> ..."And the truth SHALL set you free" (it always has me, just as it has here)... apk