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How Analog Tide Predictors Changed Human History (hackaday.com)

szczys writes: You'd think tide prediction would be quite easy: it comes in, it goes out. But of course it's driven by gravity between the moon and earth and there's a lot more to it. Today, computer models make this easy, but before computers we used incredible analog machines to predict the tides. The best of these machines were the deciding factor in setting a date for the Allies landing in Europe leading to the end of the second world war. From the Hackaday story: "In England, tide prediction was handled by Arthur Thomas Doodson from the Liverpool Tidal Institute. It was Doodson who made the tidal predictions for the Allied invasion at Normandy. Doodson needed access to local tide data, but the British only had information for the nearby ports. Factors like the shallow water effect and local weather impact on tidal behavior made it impossible to interpolate for the landing sites based on the port data. The shallow water effect could really throw off the schedule for demolishing the obstacles if the tide rose too quickly. Secret British reconnaissance teams covertly collected shallow water data at the enemy beaches and sent it to Doodson for analysis. To further complicate things, the operatives couldn't just tell Doodson that the invasion was planned for the beaches of Normandy. So he had to figure it out from the harmonic constants sent to him by William Ian Farquharson, superintendent of tides at the Hydrographic Office of the Royal Navy. He did so using the third iteration of Kelvin's predictor along with another machine. These were kept in separate rooms lest they be taken out by the same bomb.

37 comments

  1. Moon... by Etherwalk · · Score: 1

    This may have affected the timing of the invasion somewhat, but IIRC the days were determined primarily by the moon and the weather. You had a window each month where you had minimal light because the moon wasn't lit or was barely lit. Then there was bad weather, so they called off one planned date.

    1. Re:Moon... by techno-vampire · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Yes, a full moon was important, as well as acceptable weather conditions. However, the state of the tides was also important. The planners wanted the landing to take place before dawn, on a rising tide. Not only did that expose more of the beach obstacles, it meant that grounded landing craft would be afloat again sooner, making them able to bring in reinforcements sooner. And, if the landings didn't take place on June 6, the next time the tides would be right would be in two weeks, without a full moon.

      --
      Good, inexpensive web hosting
  2. You can't explain that... by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 2, Funny

    You'd think Tide prediction would be quite easy, it comes in, it goes out.

    Unless you're Bill O'Reilly:

    “Tide goes in, tide goes out. Never a miscommunication. You can’t explain that. You can’t explain why the tide goes in.”

    Not trolling; just sayin' apparently not as easy as one might think - even way back in 2011.

    --
    It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
    1. Re:You can't explain that... by UnknowingFool · · Score: 2, Informative

      Obviously the more important followup questions are: "How did the moon get there? . . . How come we have that and Mars doesn't have it? . . . "

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    2. Re:You can't explain that... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You mean Mars doesn't have a moon? (it has two)

      Or Mars doesn't have tides? (it doesn't have oceans...)

    3. Re:You can't explain that... by UnknowingFool · · Score: 1

      Here is the context: Bill O'Reilly said to an atheist that we didn't know what causes the tides as proof that God did it. To which people were like: "The moon causes tides." Of course, Bill rather than admit he was simply ignorant about centuries-old science, then said "How did the moon get there? . . . How come we have that and Mars doesn't have it? . . . " To which people countered that Mars has two moons. Bill again ignorant about basic science.

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
  3. Summary fail by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Unless you RTFA, "Kelvin's predictor" has no fucking meaning.

    1. Re:Summary fail by RabidReindeer · · Score: 4, Informative

      Or you could, you know, look it up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

      It isn't like somebody threw out a specialized acronym and expected people to understand the subject matter instantly. You could get a pretty good guess what was going on from the context and the details are secondary to the story.

      After that, if you want to know specifically what Kelvin's Predictor was or how it works, it's not to hard to look it up.

    2. Re:Summary fail by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Okay, I'll try again. I am an ocean engineer. Tide prediction in general can be rather complex, but today is not a real difficulty for known locations. Even knowing the history of the subject incredibly well, nobody calls it "Kelvin's Predictor". Zero people on the planet, including the author of this thing, probably have any idea what is meant by this, unless you have the rest of the article before it! If you had a time machine, went to Lord Kelvin himself, he would likely look at you strangely if you uttered such a phrase!

      So yes, the summary sucked, because it wasn't a summary, it was copy and pasted from different paragraphs, and they were not trying to summarize anything!

    3. Re:Summary fail by sysrammer · · Score: 1

      Here's how you do it:

      Highlight a term that you want to look up, such as "Kelvin's Predictor". Right-click, and select "search google" from the popup menu. A new tab will open up, and google will present various hits. Wikipedia entries are typically at the top of the list and often gives and adequate explanation of the term. If not, a review of all the hits and what the links point to gives an idea of what the term is. Total time spent to find the information should be under 5 seconds, longer if there is no wiki page.

      Anyways, it appears, from the wiki anyways, that they don't actually use the term "Kelvin's Predictor", as you mentioned. I'm somewhat amazed that google was able to find it. Nevertheless, I was informed and read up a bit about something I didn't know, so kudos to all.

      --
      His ignorance covered the whole earth like a blanket, and there was hardly a hole in it anywhere. - Mark Twain
    4. Re:Summary fail by sysrammer · · Score: 1

      Oops, didn't go far enough, it *was* on the wiki page: American Mathematical Society/Bill Casselman (2009), animated JAVA simulation based on Kelvin's Tide Predicting Machine (the animation shows computing 7 harmonic components).

      --
      His ignorance covered the whole earth like a blanket, and there was hardly a hole in it anywhere. - Mark Twain
    5. Re:Summary fail by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The word that you are missing is "tide". Otherwise, "Joe's beverage" could mean coffee or orange juice. Or "Sally's electronic device" could be a computer, or an alarm clock.

      Without the word tide, it sounds like somebody's crystal ball.

  4. leave grandmother moon alone... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    she lifts oceans,,, who believes her reflective magnetic resonance cannot help us heal (intentionally) & feeling compelled to breed like bunnys since/until forever... little miss dna cannot be wrong,, free the innocent stem cells they have not harmed anyone either... creation is colorblind so far as anyone really knows the moms are our creators... makes sense... hand in hand we stand...

    1. Re:leave grandmother moon alone... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      > she lifts oceans,

      Actually, no, the moon does not lift oceans.

      If gravity did 'lift oceans' then a pressure gauge on the sea bed would show the same reading whether the tide was in or out. It actually shows the exact correct reading for the depth of the water regardless of where the moon is. So, no, the moon's gravity does not pull the water up.

      The moon does not go around the earth. They both go around a common centre of gravity which is not the centre of the earth. This offset around which the earth wobbles (once every 28 days or so) causes a centrifugal force which varies depending on the distance from that centre, it is strongest on the side away from the moon and smallest on areas lying on a plane perpendicular to the earth-moon axis that goes through the common CoG. There is also a varying gravitational pull from the moon, and this acts, not just on water, but on everything. The result of accumulating all these forces is that the 'lifting' forces are completely insignificant. What causes the tides is that there is a tiny sideways force acting on the _sides_ of the earth (as seen from the moon) with a pull towards the moon on some of the visible part (as seen from the moon) and a pull away from the the moon on the invisible part (due to centrifugal forces).

      There is also no direct relationship between the time of the high tide and the time of the moon being directly overhead. Many places do have the tide high when the moon is high in the sky, other places have high tide when the moon is on the horizon. In New Zealand, which is a narrow band of North-South land, the tides circulate around the islands so there is always somewhere where the tide is high and another place where it is low. In the South Pacific the tides rotate like spokes on three large wheels engaged like gears (ie alternating clockwise and anti-clockwise).

  5. So They Used Computers Too! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Just like today, they used computers to predict tides. That they computers were relatively primitive and consisted of gears and chains doesn't mean they weren't computers, basically clocks.

    None the less, those clocks/computers are beautiful and incredible feats of engineering.

  6. Tide prediction probably saved the human race by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 5, Interesting
    In the evolution of humans, genetics show a bottleneck about 75000 years ago. Some catastrophic global event, probably a volcanic eruption, nearly wiped out all the hominids that were ancestors of Homo sapiens, in Africa. The best evidence suggests the only bands that survived the event clung to life in the east African coast near the southern end of the continent. They seem to have subsisted on shell fish and other crustaceans collected during the low tide. There are some telltale marks of intelligence about that band. Scratches on stone tools that could be decorations or ownership marks, shells with holes punched through them to make garlands of shells, using fire to sharpen and temper their stone tools etc.

    In hardly 30,000 years they expanded all across Africa, broke out of Africa, set up nascent populations all across Arabia, Persia, India, Andaman Nicobar Islands (this is important), Malaysia, Java, Sumatra, Papua New Guinea and reached Australia.

    Andaman islands is important because the first clade in the cladogram of world languages is Andamanese and Non-Andamanese. It is very clear to me, as a layman, not a strict scientist, the Great Leap Forward that happened 75000 years ago in our history was the development of abstract language and the ability to exploit coastal resources.

    So yeah, tide prediction changed our history. But not 75 years ago in Europe, but 75000 years ago in South Eastern Africa.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    1. Re:Tide prediction probably saved the human race by slew · · Score: 1

      It is very clear to me, as a layman, not a strict scientist, the Great Leap Forward that happened 75000 years ago in our history was the development of abstract language and the ability to exploit coastal resources.

      So yeah, tide prediction changed our history. But not 75 years ago in Europe, but 75000 years ago in South Eastern Africa.

      Although this is all very interesting, I submit that it is merely serendipity to take advantage of the benefits of tide, but not the actual *prediction* of tides that changed human history in this case.

      Although prediction of future events has been very useful in human history, we should not overstate it. Lest we devolve in to the shadow of practice like numerology, astrology, and other such fortune telling nonsense, because of course stopped clocks are still right twice a day...

    2. Re:Tide prediction probably saved the human race by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1

      Great Leap Forward!! What?!!!? Please tone down the sensitivity, man! More people died in the Great Leap Forward than the Holocaust. Let's not re-use the name for something else because it doesn't fit. Seriously, you do not mess with things like this, man.

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
  7. Dice by fyngyrz · · Score: 2, Funny

    They think we'll just lap this stuff up. But I'm here to wave it off. Not just to rip tides, but to surf something else entirely. This kind of article-fishing eventually turns into website breakers. Which is to say, the editors are all wet.

    --
    I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
  8. More elegant computers by EmagGeek · · Score: 0

    Not to say that they are more elegant, but they are elegant, and another example thereof. Sorry English is such a shitty language that it routinely introduces serious ambiguity with as few as three words.

    In any case, Naval fire control computers were cool as shit back in the 1950s.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

  9. or perhaps... "other elegant computers" by slew · · Score: 1

    Not to say that they are more elegant, but they are elegant, and another example thereof. Sorry English is such a shitty language that it routinely introduces serious ambiguity with as few as three words.

    FWIW, English only allows you to be ambiguous, you could have written "other elegant computer"...

    1. Re:or perhaps... "other elegant computers" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If English only allows one to be ambiguous, then one must always be ambiguous when using it, because that is all that is allowed.

  10. Wait, they had two irreplaceable machines and they by FeelGood314 · · Score: 1

    put them in separate buildings?

    That seems like doubling the probability of getting screwed by a bomb. Was there some reason they could replace either machine but not both of them?

  11. Re:Wait, they had two irreplaceable machines and t by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Our (United States) No. 2 tide prediction machine was kept in the basement of the Dept. of Commerce during the war.
    It is now on display at the National Ocean Service headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland.
    I worked in the tide prediction office for more than 30 years. One of my coworkers was the last person to actually use the machine in the early 1960's.

  12. Cpmplex gravitation by rossdee · · Score: 1

    " it's driven by gravity between the moon and earth and there's a lot more to it."

    I'm pretty sure the gravity of the Sun has something to do with it as well.

  13. Re:Wait, they had two irreplaceable machines and t by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They were in Liverpool which had not been subjected to any serious bombing since 1941. The risk from the air would have been a precision attack (hard to do).

    A German agent placing a bomb in the room it was in was another possibility. One agent would find it hard to place two bombs without discovery, and given how well penetrated the German agent network was in the UK in 1944, if there were two agents working together one would have likely have been a British agent.

  14. Great Leap Forward,it is. by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 3, Interesting
    I did not know Nazi's were using this phrase. I give rats tail to Nazis. I have seen "Great Leap Forward" being used in this context, to the unknown combination of traits that changed our species from anatomically modern H sapiens to behaviorly modern H sapiens. It is not something I coined. I'm not going to abandon it and cede permanent ownership to the Nazis.

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/e...

    http://schools.yrdsb.ca/markvi...

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm...

    But I did know the Nazis were using the Swastika symbol. So what? I will proudly and happily use the Swastika for what it is, a Hindu symbol and a decorative motif from ancient India. I recently ran into a group Indians and their priest in the Starbucks (@ State College PA) The women were wearing white saris with ornate decorative borders. The motifs in their border? The Swastika and the Star of David alternating in a series!

    Not sure how many noticed the irony!

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    1. Re:Great Leap Forward,it is. by tehcyder · · Score: 1
      Um, "Great Leap Forward" refers to Mao Zedong's agricultural revolution, which is thought to have killed tens of millions of people.

      Nothing to do with the Nazis.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    2. Re:Great Leap Forward,it is. by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 1

      Realized it after posting it. Still, commies, nazis the principle is the same. They are propagandists, and they would usurp very good phrases and symbols. If we eschew them for ever, they win.

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    3. Re: Great Leap Forward,it is. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No need to get all defensive. He was just pulling your leg. And you fell for it.

      It is called sarcasm, and he refers to the Great Leap Forward of Mao in China, and not the Nazis.

  15. Re:Wait, they had two irreplaceable machines and t by FeelGood314 · · Score: 1

    You missed the point. If both machines were critical then taking out either machine would suffice. The agent (or plane) now has to hit either room to thwart the British. A German bomber would have double the probability of success when the machines were in two rooms.

  16. covered in PBS "secrets of Normady" last year by peter303 · · Score: 1
  17. Back when Science was Metal \m/. .\m/ by coughfeeman · · Score: 1

    "Laplace’s hydrodynamic approach to tide prediction was first put into use by William Thomson, who would later become Lord Kelvin."

    Dude scienced so hard he leveled up like motherfucking Gandalf.

  18. Re:Wait, they had two irreplaceable machines and t by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It's basic, layered security principles.

    Neither machine was irreplaceable, however neither machine was *easily* replaceable either.
    Also, either machine could do *part* of the job needed, but not the *whole* job needed. There were other, similar (though less accurate/precise) machines elsewhere that could be pressed into service if needed while one destroyed machine was being replaced. You can use those other machines either to generate the inputs for the second machine, or process the outputs of the first machine. Your results will be correspondingly less accurate/precise, but should still be usable.

    You minimize the risk of total destruction by separating the two machines, so that you don't loose the whole shebang in one incident.
    You also *increase* the odds of catching a bomber by forcing them to go through *two* sets of security to plant their bombs. Since they can only *hope* to destroy both by bombing them at the same time, catching them at *either* attempt will probably save *both* machines.

    If the machines are in the same room, *any* single event can destroy both of them.
    If the machines are in different rooms, it takes correspondingly larger events to destroy both of them, and additionally restricts the scenarios in which they can both be destroyed in the first place.