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Y Combinator, the X Factor of Tech (economist.com)

universe520 writes: Since 2005 YC has taken on batches of promising founders, and this month will celebrate the funding of its 1,000th startup. Though about half of its startups have failed, which is typical of early-stage investing, it has had a head-turning record of success. In addition to Airbnb, YC has had a hand in Dropbox, a cloud-storage firm, and Stripe, a payments company. Eight of its firms have become what Valley folk call 'unicorns', valued at $1 billion or more. Combined, the companies it has invested in are worth around $65 billion (based on their most recent funding round), although YC's share is only a small fraction of that total—perhaps $1 billion-$2 billion. It is because of this record that YC has become a juggernaut in Silicon Valley.

54 comments

  1. Evaluation bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Is Airbnb really worth 25 billion? Really??? Dropbox at 10 billion?? And that's just somewhat successful YC stuff; Twitter, a company that is only good at losing investor money, is somehow valued at 19 billion.

    The real story here is the silly amount of "value" in companies that produce no tangible products. When this bubble pops, it's going to be really messy.

    1. Re:Evaluation bubble by tomhath · · Score: 1

      Valuation is nothing more than a multiple of how much cash the venture capitalists have sunk in the company. Put up $100K and the company is instantly "worth" a million dollars. So yea, what you said...

    2. Re:Evaluation bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This.

      That's the effect of huge piles of virtual cash desperately seeking (virtual) return on investment and pumping themselves into the new hip thing.

      If this were just a game, decoupled of real life (food prices, education, public health, that kind of thing), then I wouldn't mind a couple of nutjobs playing casino. But as it is, it's causing poverty all over the world, forcing some poor souls to leave their country in ill-equipped boats to try their luck elsewhere -- where they're treated as "economic refugees", having no rights and serving as ideological fodder for other kind of nutjobs.

      Disgusting.

    3. Re:Evaluation bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      it's causing poverty all over the world, forcing some poor souls to leave their country in ill-equipped boats to try their luck elsewhere

      Please explain how investing in a startup company in Silicon Valley causes poverty "all over the world"..

    4. Re:Evaluation bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You must have been born pretty recently if you missed the financial crisis of 2007, which has plunged the whole world into a recession causing poverty. You also seem to be deliberately misunderstanding what the OP said. He's not talking about one single company behind this awful trend, he's talking about the whole mindset behind it.

    5. Re:Evaluation bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Again, you're going to have to explain how investing in a startup company in Silicon Valley caused the financial crisis of 2007. Or at least how they "whole mindset" behind investing in real companies, even at valuations you consider incredible, is.

      For that matter, how the money that was invested is virtual (the invested money is *real*, the valuation is virtual).

    6. Re:Evaluation bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I wouldn't want to be spending somebody else's money on the next "hip" thing - knowing that it has an 80 percent chance of failure. What happens to the architect of "the new hip thing," I wonder? In China, they're often prosecuted. There, it's along the lines of "If it doesn't work, then it's fraud" sort of deal ...

    7. Re:Evaluation bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      None of which is relevant to your original claim that venture capitalists are causing people to become "economic refugees"

    8. Re:Evaluation bubble by Lakitu · · Score: 1

      True for some startups, but twitter's market cap is $19B. It's a publicly listed company with 676,300,000 shares outstanding which are being bought and sold for $28.17 each.

      $28.17 x 676,300,000 = $19,051,371,000

      Until people want to start literally giving away twitter shares, it's *actually* worth a fuckton of money.

    9. Re:Evaluation bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "value" in companies that produce no tangible products.

      You have stumbled into the field of value. Assets have value. The question is 'eyeballs' value? Is it an asset? When anyone can look at something does it have value? Scarcity creates monitory value. Building things creates monitory value. Being the middle man in a advertising transaction? Does *THAT* create value? It can in some cases. But if everyone does it does it have any value?

    10. Re:Evaluation bubble by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      True for some startups, but twitter's market cap is $19B. It's a publicly listed company with 676,300,000 shares outstanding which are being bought and sold for $28.17 each.

      $28.17 x 676,300,000 = $19,051,371,000

      Until people want to start literally giving away twitter shares, it's *actually* worth a fuckton of money.

      Yes, but the point is that the shares aren't really worth $28.17 as twitter is making and has always made losses. People are assuming that it will eventually make a profit, but there is no evidence for this.

      You should value companies based on their future profits/cashflows. Anything else is just witchcraft. And there is nothing special about tech companies that exempts them from financial reality.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    11. Re:Evaluation bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yes, those values are accurate, due to hyperinflation. 20 years ago these companies would be worth 25 million and 10 million respectively. I'm willing to bet your salary didn't increase by a similar multiple. That's the real problem.

    12. Re:Evaluation bubble by tomhath · · Score: 1

      It's a publicly listed company with 676,300,000 shares outstanding which are being bought and sold

      How many of those shares are actually being traded? Typically in an IPO the company issues millions of shares but only makes a few available for trading (perhaps 1% of the total), then hypes itself to try and drive up demand for the relatively few shares available. If twitter really did dump almost 700M shares on the market it's unlikely they could sell them.

    13. Re:Evaluation bubble by tomhath · · Score: 1

      The best example of all is carrying "goodwill" as value. Remember when AOL wrote off $99 Billion ? Their "value" dropped, but absolutely nothing changed.

    14. Re:Evaluation bubble by Lakitu · · Score: 1

      http://quotes.wsj.com/TWTR

      volume of 8,107,527 today as I write this, meaning 8 million have exchanged hands just today.

      That's what makes it public - what an IPO does - is that the shares are all theoretically publicly available. There's no extra secret stock going on here. It's not an extrapolated value because an angel investor dropped $10 million into a startup. It's the public stock price, which people are openly paying millions of times daily, multiplied by the number of public shares which people own and could sell if they wanted to.

      If twitter really did dump almost 700M shares on the market it's unlikely they could sell them.

      of course, it would likely drop. But they're not all owned by twitter. Twitter could issue more stock, or can pay its employees with stock, or whatever, and those would all negatively impact the share price. People who already owned shares would still own the same dollar value, but they might end up with more stock, like in a stock split.

      But that's not the point, because people aren't doing that, and aren't willing to do that. Until people are literally willing to give away shares of twitter, twitter is actually worth a fuckton of money.

    15. Re: Evaluation bubble by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The poors driven out of SF by highly paid techies probably qualify. So many smart people paid so much money to build such stupid things.

  2. little miss dna cannot be wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    the spirit of creation thrives on compassion.... connections

  3. The 90s are calling... by Errol+backfiring · · Score: 2

    I hear the 90s calling. They want their dot-com bubble back.

    --
    Nae king! Nae laird! Nae yurrupiean pressedent! We willna be fooled again!
    1. Re:The 90s are calling... by invictusvoyd · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Its nothing about the 90's dot com bubble really .. Where there are investment bankers , there is bound to be a bubble. Anywhere and everywhere .. It's like where there are programmers there's bound to be code ..

    2. Re:The 90s are calling... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The internet bubble started a new paradigm in investing, where there isn't even so much as swampland in FLA to account for the investment. It creates a completely fake, artificial economy, which (only a pie and cake dreaming) investment banker could think runs on forever. The world is turning from real products, to fake ones, because it's too much work to make real ones, and ROI is slower. Why doesn't TI compete anymore in the SoC market? For that matter, why aren't there any American firms at all doing it? It's because VC demands quick gain, and nobody will stay the course. We now have an economy, where physical assets, or for that matter IP assets, are not traded so much as empty financial instruments. It's a pharaoh's pyramid - literally, meaning the dead pharaoh's pyramid. Virtual stuff indeed.

    3. Re:The 90s are calling... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It didn't help TI that the Pandaboard was classified as a medical device by the FDA, making it un-exportable (effectively). Is that ever a WTF?

  4. Re:"Y" determines sex. but "X" determines.... by EzInKy · · Score: 0

    Breeding out the "Y" chromosome can only help strengthen mankind. Just look at how many weaknesses such as autism have continued due to its continuance. What good does having males stuck in the basement dreaming of Amy do for the preservation of the species?

    --
    Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
  5. Re:"Y" determines sex. but "X" determines.... by EzInKy · · Score: 0

    How is removing "Y" totally from the equation off topic? If a variable is unnecessary, it is unnecessary! Almost every expression of the male chromosome has led to weakness in the human genome.

    --
    Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
  6. Profit? by IamTheRealMike · · Score: 2

    I thought I read somewhere that none of Dropbox, Stripe or Airbnb actually make a profit? Is that really a success story if so?

    1. Re:Profit? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      1. Build a non-tangible online company.
      2. Trick investors about a profitable future. If not possible, GOTO 6
      3. Everyone knows about your product and uses it.
      4. Success!
      5. GOTO 2

      6. Company has failed, never made any money.

    2. Re:Profit? by eulernet · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The success story is their ability to present something that has no value as something revolutionary and valuable.

      Everything is in the pitch.

    3. Re:Profit? by Lunix+Nutcase · · Score: 1

      The success is that they've duped people into believing that their worthy eleventy billion dollars.

    4. Re:Profit? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Add Twitter to that list as well - and of course Uber. It's the same as the dot-bomb mantra: get big, grow revenue, worry about profit at a later date. Sure, you lose money on each transaction but you make it up in volume! Or something...

      In 1999, Lycos was the 3=4th most visited website in the world (behind AOL, Yahoo, and Microsoft). A year later, at 5th place, it was bought by Terra Networks for $12.5 billion (about $17.5 billion today). Four years later it was sold for about 2% of that value, and most recently (with a web rank of ~9,000th most popular site on the Internet) was sold for $36 million in 2010. It was huge, more traffic than nearly every other site - lots of users! But it never had a plan for profit - just revenue. And it went away like 99.9% of all companies that worry only about revenue and not profit.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    5. Re:Profit? by retchdog · · Score: 1

      But they told me in my Coding for Everyone class that we shouldn't use goto, so could you please refactor and post this algorithm in Python for my studies? I think it can be very useful, do you have a github?

      --
      "They were pure niggers." – Noam Chomsky
    6. Re:Profit? by retchdog · · Score: 1

      Who gives a shit about how the company ended up? It sold for $12.5 billion. That's what matters.

      --
      "They were pure niggers." – Noam Chomsky
    7. Re:Profit? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Yep, at the peak of the bubble it sold for $12.5 billion. When the bubble burst, the real value of the company became apparent - 2% of that original sum. Same thing with the "unicorns" today who have no profit (and in the case of Twitter, no plan to get there). As soon as there's a bump in the VC funding market (like a bubble popping or deflating) those unicorns - so praised for being worth billions - will end up scattered about for a few millions at best.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    8. Re:Profit? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No pitch could save the terrible ideas of "eulernet". But that feels bad to you.

    9. Re:Profit? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Is your success posting negativity on Slashdot?

  7. Re:"Y" determines sex. but "X" determines.... by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    Perhaps in the end the worst parts of species will be breed out?

    You say "worst", nature says "successful".

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  8. "the X Factor", not "The X Factor"... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Evidently "The X Factor" wasn't as successful in the US as it was in the UK, else this thread would already be full of jokes about Simon Cowell and Bread-and-Circuses talent show stars...

  9. Re:"Y" determines sex. but "X" determines.... by GrumpySteen · · Score: 4, Informative

    The name Y Combinator has nothing to do with chromosomes.

  10. What's in a name by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What an incredibly pretentious name.

  11. Re:"Y" determines sex. but "X" determines.... by EzInKy · · Score: 1

    So you deny that without the "Y" the human race would be far better off?

    --
    Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.
  12. Re:Great article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hello Patricia,

    I am interested in tickling your vagina. Please respond with your phone number and address so that we might couple and complete the insemination process.

    Thank you in advance, hugs and kisses,

    Juan Epstein

  13. Re:"Y" determines sex. but "X" determines.... by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

    " All it takes is synthesis of one chromosone to render half of humanity redundant. Perhaps in the end the worst parts of species will be breed out?"

    This can't be allowed to happen because the Earth would run out of cat food.

  14. APK proved you troll & liar by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So you deny that without your shitposting Slashdot would be far better off ?

    Run Forrest Run !

    P.S. ==> FUCK YOU !

    -APK

    1. Re:APK proved you troll & liar by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      APK stands for "anonymous phucking koward"

  15. Valuation by Etherwalk · · Score: 1

    True for some startups, but twitter's market cap is $19B. It's a publicly listed company with 676,300,000 shares outstanding which are being bought and sold for $28.17 each.

    $28.17 x 676,300,000 = $19,051,371,000

    Until people want to start literally giving away twitter shares, it's *actually* worth a fuckton of money.

    ...

    You should value companies based on their future profits/cashflows. Anything else is just witchcraft. And there is nothing special about tech companies that exempts them from financial reality.

    Yes, you should value companies that way, but no, other ways of valuing a company aren't whichcraft. Once you have a highly liquid public market willing to buy your shares, obviously it's okay to value a company (at least in the short-term) based on what people are willing to pay for it. If they're willing to pay *more* than the expected value of future profits, of course, then you should usually sell, but it's not witchcraft.

    1. Re:Valuation by tomhath · · Score: 1

      Let me make sure I understand what you're saying.

      I incorporate, issue 1000 shares, put one share up for sale and buy it for $10,000. You are saying my company has a value of $10,000,000? Because that's essentially how dotcom IPOs work.

    2. Re:Valuation by Etherwalk · · Score: 1

      Let me make sure I understand what you're saying.

      I incorporate, issue 1000 shares, put one share up for sale and buy it for $10,000. You are saying my company has a value of $10,000,000? Because that's essentially how dotcom IPOs work.

      No, *you* are saying your company has a value of $10M, because that's what you paid for the one share. Or your buyer is. They are making a bet that your future profits will justify that or that someone will be willing to pay more for the company in the future. If it's just you, obviously you can be creating a fake expectation in the hope of sending a valuation signal. If I can sell a company for $10M and the present value of its future profit is $1M, of course I'm going to sell it unless I have some extrinsic reason for keeping it--but the value of the company to me right now is still $10M because I can sell it for that.

  16. Re:"Y" determines sex. but "X" determines.... by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

    Without the Y chromosome, the human race was run.

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
  17. 7% for $120,000? WTF? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I've been self-funding my startup. At this time, I've invested $30,000 (real cash, no silly accountant created crap) into making it happen. I work 8-12 hours a day for my day job and I work 2-12 hours a day (plus weekends) on my startup. I have done so since July.

    As of today, I have managed to build what looks like "a soon to be finished" product which genuinely works, is unique and has market disrupting potential in a big sector. I have written absolutely everything myself and that includes even writing an object oriented compiler.

    If some jack-ass wanted 3 months of my time and additionally wanted 7% of my company just for $120-$180,000 I would run screaming. I can generate that much off of releasing my software early to raise funds in a few days based on current interest alone.

    These guys sound like crooks and scam artists.

    1. Re:7% for $120,000? WTF? by KGIII · · Score: 1

      You take the gamble of making little to nothing. With a VC funding solution, you have more capital to work with and a greater chance of success. It's a risk and one that can be argued both ways. I know that, to you, your product is special (and that's a good thing) but there's also a good chance that VCs won't even be interested in it. There's also a good chance that your product will fail. I do, truly, wish you the best of luck but I'd give careful consideration to throwing away the chance at VC funding, should such a chance arise.

      This is not a slight, nor meant to be, but you're far more likely to fail than you are to succeed. Success, for however you measure it, is worth the risks, however. So, indeed, I do wish you the best of luck.

      --
      "So long and thanks for all the fish."
  18. The end is near by Drunkulus · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The only reason there's so much venture capital is that interest rates are near zero and investors are willing to gamble on a better return. Once the Fed returns rates to historically normal levels, money for these dumbass startups will disappear. Same with insane real estate prices. A monthly payment on a million dollar mortgage at 3% interest is a bit over 4 grand, but at historically average rates of 8 to 10% that monthly payment will more than double.