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Research Establishes 13-Hour Gap Between Viral Misinformation and Correction (thestack.com)

An anonymous reader writes: Researchers in China and America will soon launch a platform called Hoaxy, designed to identify and analyze what happens when misinformed news goes viral, and the processes which lead to a correction of the misinformation. The study, which compared 71 likely and prominent sources of inaccurate internet news over a period of three months to the same news stories on fact-checking sites, concludes that the average interval between viral diffusion of inaccurate news and the discovery of facts which disprove it stands at about 13 hours. Hoaxy uses a custom crawler written in Python and diffused via the Scrapy web crawling framework.

54 comments

  1. This will be put to good use, right? by houghi · · Score: 0

    I am sure that places like the stcok exchange will take this info as a reason to put a delay between the placing of an order and the actual transaction, so people can not profit from it, right?

    This all to protect both the people and the market, as that is their goal, right?

    --
    Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
    1. Re:This will be put to good use, right? by Big+Hairy+Ian · · Score: 4, Funny

      So now I've got to wait 13 hours to find out if this stories bogus? :D

      --

      Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.

    2. Re:This will be put to good use, right? by Marginal+Coward · · Score: 1

      It's more likely to be 12 or 14.

  2. 1000+ yr. gap since the truth was known to us by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    give or take? give until it stops hurting? thanks moms..

  3. Pterry was right... by Eunuchswear · · Score: 2

    It takes truth 13 hours to get its boots on.

    --
    Watch this Heartland Institute video
  4. Reach of misinformation by RogueyWon · · Score: 5, Insightful

    A particular information is that the "correction" often fails to travel as far as the original misinformation. There are plenty of examples of this, though a particularly effective case study is the aftermath of the Columbine shootings, where a number of early pieces of misinformation on both the perpetrators (outcasts, "trench coat mafia", third-shooter) and the victims (specific targeting of individuals, religious martyrdom) went viral gained traction and remain part of the popular perceptions of the event today, despite having been disproved and corrected shortly after they were issued. Simply put, the misinformation was a better and "more comfortable" story than the truth (which is often the case - reality has a nasty habit of being messy, while our brains seem to like tidy stories).

    On that basis, this looks like a worthy study. That said, given the Chinese connection, I do have to wonder whether this study isn't just going to be a vehicle for proposing blanket media-censorship.

    1. Re:Reach of misinformation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Simply put, the misinformation was a better and "more comfortable" story than the truth (which is often the case - reality has a nasty habit of being messy, while our brains seem to like tidy stories).

      Jesse Jackson made a career out of that.

    2. Re:Reach of misinformation by Llamalarity · · Score: 1

      A particular information is that the "correction" often fails to travel as far as the original misinformation.

      Almost always fails to travel as far. And a more recent and still ongoing example than Columbine are the junk studies bashing electronic cigarettes. Every one has been countered or exposed as the junk it is yet they keep coming and have for over five years.

    3. Re:Reach of misinformation by LaurenCates · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It isn't just websites.

      It seems to me than in any given group, it's always "whoever's version of the story goes public first is the one whose version is most imprinted upon people and is least likely to change in the minds of people who heard it".

      When a controversy broke in a group I was part of, we had a woman who cried to anyone who would listen about a smaller group of "harpies" (in the larger group) that were bullying her. It came out later - and was treated with much less urgency - that she was abusing her domestic partner! Said woman had the most ardent defenders, and the other group, which, best as I can figure, was trying to extricate the partner from the situation and while not entirely innocent, ended up vilified. To this day, people in that group have more or less swept the whole nasty business under the rug and like to pretend it didn't happen.

      I call it "the power of the first complaint".

      --
      Some people don't believe in fairies. I don't believe in The Patriarchy.
    4. Re:Reach of misinformation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Saw something similar on Reddit recently - somebody commented that Dr. Richard Stallman suggested that even if you take the battery out of your phone, the NSA could still listen in on your phone via a backup battery(1)

      But after spending 10 minutes reading online, the only thing I could actually find is him saying that just turning your phone off doesn't mean it's actually off.(2)

      Some people in that article started talking about PC motherboards having backup batteries and that it was a "fact" that there's one their phones as well(3). Yet none of them actually provided proof of this, and looking at a bunch of teardowns of phones(4), there's really nothing that could constitute a backup battery; at best one could allege that a particular capacitor might hold enough charge just to keep some data around. But then you get to the point where any battery of that size really wouldn't be able to run the microphone and radio (regardless of which component) for particularly long.. phones don't last very long with an active radio on the original (relatively large) battery as it is ..unless the NSA is holding back on some sweet battery tech as well.

      Then again, maybe t his post is misinformation. Unfortunately, it'll take you a lot longer to either confirm or debunk my claims than it took me to write this comment.(5)

      But it helps providing some sources, which you'll notice that most outfits that spread misinformation (knowingly and willingly, or just because they oversimplified the matter - perhaps because they didn't quite understand it themselves) generally don't do.
      1) https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/49sx54/apple_fbi_could_force_us_to_turn_on_iphone/d0ulluz
      2) https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130723/12395923907/even-powering-down-cell-phone-cant-keep-nsa-tracking-its-location.shtml
      3) https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130723/12395923907/even-powering-down-cell-phone-cant-keep-nsa-tracking-its-location.shtml#c159
      4) https://www.google.com/search?q=phone+teardown&tbm=isch
      5) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSRjBSypaZg

    5. Re:Reach of misinformation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

      Hmm. This is actually the power of the "women in peril" narrative. It's regularly abused by women who want to dodge responsibility for their behaviour and/or make money. Female privilege.

      We've seen so many examples of this kind of privilege abuse recently.

    6. Re:Reach of misinformation by pr0fessor · · Score: 1

      I have always enjoyed the anti-smoking campaigns they are so funny. We all know that smoking and even electronic cigarettes are not good for you but then again we do all kinds of things that are not necessarily good for you.

      My favorite is cigarettes have methane which is also found poop cause you know it's not like we have it piped into our houses in large quantities to heat water, heat the house, and even cook food.

    7. Re:Reach of misinformation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well yeah. Fiction has always been more popular that truth.

    8. Re:Reach of misinformation by AchilleTalon · · Score: 1

      There is also this story about a guy who splitted the Red Sea into two parts which is still running for over 3000 years and that other guy which has been crucified and ressurected three days after and 50 days later started flying in the sky toward someone called his father.

      --
      Achille Talon
      Hop!
  5. Proof positive - Slashdot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We see this behavior regularly on Slashdot.

  6. What is it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They WILL establish a platform but they ALREADY HAVE the results? What?

  7. time gap is useless generalized information by sittingnut · · Score: 3, Interesting

    generalized/averaged time gap between misinformation and correction is practically useless, given the variety of, types of information, news sources, content of news and false news, and methods of correction, ( not to mention differences in languages, culture, internet penetration and habits, co-relation with offline media, etc).
    given all that, time gap for each correction event , plotted on a graph, will spread thinly all along the time axis. averaging such data is absurd and meaningless.

    to be useful the variety mentioned above needs to be narrowed to specific categories. for instance, financial misinformation and correction about companies ina industry listed in a particular stock market reported in a specific group of news sources.

    1. Re:time gap is useless generalized information by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The time gap is actually very useful in terms of modeling. Queuing theory only requires the time between events to describe rather complex interactions.

    2. Re:time gap is useless generalized information by sittingnut · · Score: 1

      time gaps and averaged time gap are two things. usefulness of the second depend on the nature of data distribution. i pointed out why in this case too general data should make averaging meaningless and useless.

    3. Re:time gap is useless generalized information by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're changing the "problem" to one outside the scope of the research though. It's not to predict the effect on each individual type of transfer error to fix but rather to establish a baseline for that occurring online. Especially compared to print media, and especially with communications network effects.

  8. Time difference by louic · · Score: 1

    The time difference between China and the US is also 13 hours. Coincidence?

    1. Re:Time difference by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which part of US? The whole US is not one timezone. Haven't bothered to check, but all of China is probably not one timezone.

    2. Re:Time difference by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In China the timezone is in you.

      There is only one US timezone: Trump time.

    3. Re:Time difference by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, it's not 13 hours.

    4. Re:Time difference by louic · · Score: 2

      Obviously the US is not a single timezone. And not all people wake up at the same time either. That does not change the fact that it may be interesting to look into this coincidence.

  9. Coincidentally.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    13hrs is also the delay between a post appearing on /. and a duplicate post appearing.

  10. A lot of it is deliberate by MikeRT · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The amount of garbage that I see posted on Facebook that is not only blatantly wrong but you-should-know-better-so-I-assume-dishonesty wrong is incredible in some places. My favorite example off the top of my head is the meme showing a pie chart with the federal budget that shows the military at 60% of the budget and some self-righteous line to the EBT piece that says "Republicans thinking cutting this will balance the budget." Well, guess what, that pie chart is the discretionary budget. That part is about 20% of the entire federal budget. Those of us who actually know enough about the government that our founding fathers wouldn't be embarrassed to let us vote actually notice things like "WTH are Medicare, Social Security, Unemployment and servicing the national debt?"

    The majority just lap that garbage up. Left or right and in between. Doesn't matter. The more it confirms their biases, the more their brains shut down.

    If Facebook wanted to censor something useful instead of legitimate German outrage over the complete disregard for popular opinion on the migrant issue, they could start with a lot of the "political" pages on Facebook that spread more dezinformatsiya than a Soviet state TV station on coke.

    1. Re:A lot of it is deliberate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Public accounting is a different beast than business accounting, largely because the illusion of debt can be created by shifting the timing of how things are reported. You should know a bit more than basic accounting before dredging up political talking points dressed up in romanticism. Or maybe not.

      Also, apply some public policy: there is no deficit caused by social programs because the alternatives cost even more for a poorer quality of outcome.

    2. Re:A lot of it is deliberate by swb · · Score: 1

      Facebook is just proof that people simply want to reinforce their own beliefs and parrot the beliefs of their peer groups. They're not interested in facts or finding any real truths because so many of them contradict what they want to believe or the conventional wisdom of their peer groups.

    3. Re:A lot of it is deliberate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      +1

      Not only that, but Facebook and Twitter are quickly becoming the new "news source." No one questions this shit, as if it's some official source or first hand account. Even mainstream media cites Twitter as a source now for everything. "Reports are coming in from Twitter..."

      Yeah... Twitter... now there is a place to find truth/reality... where people are posting updates every 2-3 minutes on the status of their bowel movements.

    4. Re:A lot of it is deliberate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The mass crushes beneath it everything that is different, everything that is excellent, individual, qualified and select. Anybody who is not like everybody, who does not think like everybody, runs the risk of being eliminated...

      José Ortega y Gasset, 1929

    5. Re:A lot of it is deliberate by LaurenCates · · Score: 1

      Indeed. I know waaaaaay too many of the fierce liberal types on Facebook that love to repeat the classic "the military should hold a bake sale" meme.

      Having worked in and around the Government for 15 years and having learned a little bit about color of money and appropriations in that time, I try and gently tell them "You do know that's not how the Government, the economy and 'supply and demand' work, right?"

      --
      Some people don't believe in fairies. I don't believe in The Patriarchy.
    6. Re:A lot of it is deliberate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So you are saying that cutting EBT will balance the budget? I (and more people than you give credit) understand this is discretionary spending. But when Congress says they have passed a budget, they don't say they have passed a discretionary budget. The non-discretionary parts can only be changed through changing of laws.

      So long as the data presented is not flawed, I don't see the problem. And in this case, the data shows the relation between EBT and military spending. And knowing or telling people that it is discretionary spending doesn't change the conclusion.

  11. Put your money where your mouth is by GrumpySteen · · Score: 1

    If you feel the researchers didn't go far enough, contact them and offer them funding to continue their research. I'm sure they'd be delighted at the prospect.

  12. Good News For People who like bad news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I"ll just wait the thirteen hours until this article is proven false. But then it might be right if it's proven false.... my head hurts

    1. Re:Good News For People who like bad news by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't forget about the third guard that stabs people who ask tricky questions.

  13. Rod Stewart by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 1

    I hope someday true research is done on how that very nasty rumor about Rod Stewart ended up traversing the world several times over before there were even mobile phones, let alone ubiquitous Internet access.

  14. Sometimes the gap is infinite. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sometimes the gap is infinite.
    Like the case of the North Carolina town that passed a moratorium on solar farms. All kinds of BS was reported about the reasons. The town itself, said the reason was simple: They already had three solar farms. Did the internet issue a correction? An apology for the stupid stories that were made up about the town? No.

    1. Re:Sometimes the gap is infinite. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Hey, AC. I saw you bashing that town as much as anyone else. You should apologize first!

  15. This is just advertising by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is just an ad for their service, I just see numbers being pulled out of asses here.
    Unless of course in 13 hours we have a new article telling us this one was full of shit.

  16. It's Quite a bit like how Science Works by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Crazy ideas get proposed and accepted as "mainstream" for centuries before they become so thoroughly disproven that they become jokes in themselves:

    - flat earth "theory"
    - spontaneous generation "theory"
    - the "theory" of relativity
    - the "theory" of evolution

  17. Instead of the Twilight Zone by HangingChad · · Score: 0

    We can call the gap between misinformation and the reality The Breitbart Gap.

    --
    That's our life, the big wheel of shit. - The Fat Man, Blue Tango Salvage
  18. In related news... by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

    Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer. CONFIRMED.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  19. How this study will be interpreted... by MiniMike · · Score: 2

    Soon we will have some nutjob claiming that any news story older than 13 hours must be true.

    By this time tomorrow, someone else will have linked to this post to support that claim.

  20. I think I'll wait... by dmomo · · Score: 1

    ...13 hours before I believe that hoaxy is real.

  21. Truth Shoes by jdagius · · Score: 1

    There is a saying, attributed to Mark Twain in 1919: "A lie will travel halfway around the world, while Truth is putting on her shoes."

    The attribution is somewhat doubtful, since Twain died in 1910. But still a quotable quote.

    1. Re:Truth Shoes by Opyros · · Score: 1
  22. the definition of by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    inconvenient information and misinformation of course, defined by whom?

  23. It's OK. You're not one of "us" either. by denzacar · · Score: 1

    Those of us who actually know enough about the government that our founding fathers wouldn't be embarrassed to let us vote actually notice things like "WTH are Medicare, Social Security, Unemployment and servicing the national debt?"

    You're one of them too.

    I'm only posting this cause it's the THIRD TIME THIS WEEK (well... last seven days) that I'm seeing this same "not only blatantly wrong but you-should-know-better-so-I-assume-dishonesty wrong" parroting.
    Only this time comical numbers are made to be someone else's fault.
    But with the same fallacy of equating trust funds (paying for social programs - where people ENTRUST a part of their paycheck to the government in return for various forms of insurance later) and direct expenditures (paying for defense NOW) parts of the budget.

    I.e. Equating savings for a rainy day and spending on guns which (should that particular rainy day come) will quickly prove to be obsolete and will be bought again, several times over - and forever paying for the human costs of past wars.

    --
    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens
  24. A systematic? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's interesting to see that the 13h time difference between hoax and correction is roughly equal to the time difference between the two countries involved in the study...

  25. Obligatory quote by Raenex · · Score: 1

    "A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on."

    1. Re:Obligatory quote by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He should have said: "Truth goes halfway around the world before censorship finds its door rams". Why is China interested in algorithms for curbing viral news??

  26. Partnerships by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    China and America? That partnership alone should send chills up your spine.

    When they start talking about fake news, it's clear they are in the business of propaganda and censorship.