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NASA's 'Journey To Mars' Initiative Might Be Delayed Due To Government Audit (natureworldnews.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Christian Science Monitor: NASA has taken bold steps toward crewed Mars exploration in recent years. But according to a new audit, the agency may be moving too hastily. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) expressed concerns this past week about the feasibility of NASA's Orion crew capsule and Space Launch System (SLS). In two government-requested audits, the GAO questioned NASA's ability to meet program deadlines, citing insufficient funding and internal management issues. According to the GAO, however, the agency's schedule just isn't realistic. By pushing for earlier launch dates, NASA is increasing the inherent risk of a deep space mission. NASA's budgeting practices are also scrutinized in GAO's audit. In September, the agency asked for $11.3 billion to prepare Orion for launch. "Ideally, if these programs go forward, NASA would be taking actions to reduce the risks we see now, which are being caused by management issues," says Cristina Chaplain, who led the GOA audit, in an interview with the Monitor. "They're going to face the technical issues no matter what. But they're exacerbating them with management concerns, like not having accurate cost estimates." The report adds: "NASA's 'Journey to Mars' initiative has been a source of both excitement and controversy. The Asteroid Redirect Mission, in which the agency will send four astronauts to redirect an asteroid into the moon's orbit, is slated to launch sometime in the next decade. The mission is designed to test new propulsion technology for future crewed Mars missions. In the 2030s, NASA hopes to send an Orion crew to the red planet. NASA plans to complete the first SLS launch in 2018. In the test mission, called Exploration Mission 1, the rocket will carry an empty Orion into orbit around the moon. In subsequent missions, SLS/Orion will launch with a full crew. NASA has scheduled Exploration Mission 2 for April 2023, but administrators hope to launch as early as 2021."

65 comments

  1. Auditing vessel's plans for a 3rd gender bathroom by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I expect an expensive audit.

  2. Re:Auditing vessel's plans for a 3rd gender bathro by Aighearach · · Score: 2

    Everything is unisex in space.

  3. Re:Auditing vessel's plans for a 3rd gender bathro by pahles · · Score: 4, Funny

    especially when you wear diapers.

    --
    Sig?
  4. Bureaucracy vs Progress by Required+Snark · · Score: 2

    If this sort of nonsense had gone on during the Apollo program we would have never put anyone in orbit in an Gemini or Apollo capsule, much less made it to the moon.

    --
    Why is Snark Required?
    1. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by Opportunist · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Today there are no Russians to 1up.

      Maybe we should wait for the Chinese to get their program up to speed, before that we probably won't get to see any funding for a decent space program.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    2. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Today there are no Russians to 1up.

      Correct, we've ceded manned spaceflight to them and most of the US space launch companies are using obsolete Russian rocket engines.

    3. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      Umm... obsolete or not, but the last Russian fatality in space was while they were still called USSR. Actually, if they manage to be without accident for a few more years, we're looking at half a century of safe space travels.

      Meanwhile, in the free world...

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    4. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by dbIII · · Score: 1

      You missed the point - the rocket engines being purchased are not the current models but the older ones that the Russians have moved on from to improved versions.
      We are not only a step behind but paying them to be a step behind.

    5. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by dunkelfalke · · Score: 2

      Not quite. RD-180 is more or less current, just a different version of what will be used in future Russian rockets. Soyuz engines, on the other hand, are much, much older.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    6. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We are paying them because it is cheaper and NASA has other things to spend it's money on. It has nothing to do with technical capability. Why should NASA play the role of orbital delivery boy when you have private companies willing to take over? The US still has orbital lift capability for putting military assets into orbit. NASA has more active space missions running than the rest of the world combined. Any long term manned missions are a waste of resources if the only reason to do it is for bragging rights.

    7. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by geekmux · · Score: 1

      If this sort of nonsense had gone on during the Apollo program we would have never put anyone in orbit in an Gemini or Apollo capsule, much less made it to the moon.

      If this sort of "nonsense" had gone on during the Apollo program, we might not also be a country $20 trillion dollars in debt.

      Sure, I'm all for space exploration, when we can fucking afford to go off and play in space. Anyone care to calculate the ROI for the handful of humans we put on the moon? Yeah, I thought not.

      Sorry, but the whole bigger-dick syndrome we suffered from in the 1960s shouldn't be allowed to cut it today. Common sense.

    8. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      "Sure, I'm all for space exploration, when we can fucking afford to go off and play in space. "

      Meanwhile, Silicon Valley can not only afford it but is willing to assume the risk that manned space programs involve.

    9. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by Opportunist · · Score: 2

      I know I write this every time someone comes along and laments that we didn't get anything out of the moon shots than bragging rights, proving we have the bigger dick and a few kilograms of moon rocks. We got so much more out of that.

      What people fail to see time and again is that a lot of stuff had to be done behind the scenes. The 60s were a decade of groundbreaking discoveries and advances in many different areas. Of course in metallurgy, electronics and computer science. We had to invent those things because without this would have been impossible, and no private enterprise has the money to simply pour millions if not billions into foundation research. But that's just the tip of the ice berg. We made incredible advances in management. Process management was pretty much invented during this time. The idea of milestones and how to manage huge, complex projects, how to split them up into manageable portions and how to gauge progress, all that and more was invented or at the very least refined in that era.

      Then there is the boost in economy and of course confidence in the country's power, something we could seriously use again. The US was in the middle of a war they were going to lose by the time Armstrong set that foot onto the moon, which was a traumatic experience for the country. What this country needed (and what it could really need today again) was something that everyone could stand behind, united and independent of any political stance, something you could be proud of because everyone had a part in it, from the men who set their foot onto the soil of the moon to the Kansas farmer who could picture himself as the one who fed all these people who made this possible.

      This is the true meaning of the moonshot. It's not some guy hopping about on an insignificant, dusty rock. It's what it meant to the country that made it possible for him to do this. The US economy was still going forward from the boost it got from that well into the 80s.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    10. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by mi · · Score: 1

      Silicon Valley can not only afford it but is willing to assume the risk that manned space programs involve.

      That's a good thing, actually. People betting their own monies — assuming the risks and hoping for rewards. That's how Capitalism works.

      Government officials with no "skin in the game" deciding, how to spend the monies of the captive taxpayers — that's how you do not want to live.

      --
      In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
    11. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      The deeper problem with government missions is the omnipresence of politics. The astronauts whose literal skins are in play may be perfectly willing to assume the risks of advanced missions, but the political fallout associated with any loss of life means that NASA can't let them do it.

    12. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The US was in the middle of a war they were going to lose by the time Armstrong set that foot onto the moon, which was a traumatic experience for the country.

      You have it wrong, the US was in the middle of a war they didn't want to fight, they didn't want to pay the price for, and considered a waste of time.

      They being the people, especially the ones asked to do it, while not including the ones who could profit from such endeavors.

      The US economy was still going forward from the boost it got from that well into the 80s.

      That explains malaise.

    13. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by oh_my_080980980 · · Score: 1

      Nonsense? Really Potsy? You're not familiar with Project Management are you. Things get done when you have good project management. Things don't get done and blow up when you have poor project management.

      Moron.

    14. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sure, I'm all for space exploration, when we can fucking afford to go off and play in space. Anyone care to calculate the ROI for the handful of humans we put on the moon? Yeah, I thought not.

      Well, there was the fact that transistor networks had to be small enough and robust enough to withstand the stresses of a missile launch. Discrete circuits had to be integrated. Hmm. Integrated. Circuits. IC what we got out of the space program. Do you?

    15. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      But our goal then was to make it to the moon.

    16. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      People are much more educated these days. Mars is not the moonshot that you're looking for.

    17. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Anyone care to calculate the ROI for the handful of humans we put on the moon?

      The Federation of American Scientists did: NASA Technological Spinoff Fables

      But the fact that the total NASA investment of $55 billion yielded a paltry $5 billion in true spinoffs, creating entirely new products or industries, suggests a very poor return of ten cents on the dollar. Again, this should not be surprising, given the highly specialized nature of much of the engineering and development work conducted by NASA. So rather than being an unusually good investment paying 7:1 or 22:1 for each dollar invested, NASA has an astoundingly bad 1:10 payoff -- about a factor of 100 worse than the commercial economy as a whole.

    18. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      You can look at the US TV networks, and especially its news, and tell me with a straight face the people are more educated these days?

      Mars is no moonshot. I know that. Mars is also not where I'd go. Back to the moon would be the goal. Establish a presence. Claim it. Maybe not de jure, but de facto. You have the media to spin it as the great leap forwards, so what keeps you from doing it?

      It could just be the boost the economy needs now to get out of the recession and the morale boost the population needs to overcome the depression of losing wars, jobs and homes.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    19. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      That had already been developed for ICBMs which have to withstand much higher stresses than something limited to what people can stand. The same computer used in the Minuteman missile was used for Apollo. In fact much of NASA's mission at the time was to perform technology transfer of classifies DoD tech to the private sector.

    20. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by FlyHelicopters · · Score: 1

      Yes, the ROI was massive and made the moon landings one of th cheapest events in human history based on return on investment.

      They would have been a bargain at twice the price and we have a nation full of morons such as yourself who don't understand this, which is why we stopped going.

      We should have a base there by now, with large ships going to Mars, if it was not for idiots such as yourself.

    21. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Are you kidding? Do we live in the same America? Did I fly across the dateline a few times too many today? This is the same America where not even 5% of the *discretionary* budget put us on the moon, you know. The America where a pissant sum is tossed NASA's way every year, and using it does awesome science every year, on a half percent of the budget?

      Nice try. The 20 trillion dollars came from somewhere, but it sure as fuck hasn't come from NASA, which from its foundation in '58 has only hit 500 billion total in 2011.

    22. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's NASA. By definition they are pushing the boundaries. It's not always possible to estimate their budgets with the accuracy an outfit like the GAO would like. The GAO are a bunch of accountants, by definition. You know what accountants like? Certainty, and budgets. NASA isn't like that.

      I'm not saying that NASA doesn't need the services of accountants, or that NASA programs shouldn't have oversight. NASA's projects can go off kilter just like everyone else's. However it does seem to me that the priorities of the GAO versus NASA, that's like chalk and cheese. Meat versus broccoli. Alpha and Omega.

      Therefore when Cristina Chaplain says, "They're going to face the technical issues no matter what. But they're exacerbating them with management concerns, like not having accurate cost estimates." My reaction is, huh?

      The technical issues are commonly, routinely, unsurprisingly going to have budgetary impacts. That includes overrunning whatever internal project time slack and budgetary freedom are already built in to the project. And frankly, as part of the Know Your Customer rule, Cristina Chaplain should understand that.

      The crucial issue is, having hit the technical issues and the budgetary impacts, do you continue to support the project or do you pull the plug? That's where the real rubber hits the road. Good PMs who can navigate these waters are worth their weight in gold.

    23. Re:Bureaucracy vs Progress by dbIII · · Score: 1

      What people fail to see time and again is that a lot of stuff had to be done behind the scenes.

      We don't fail to see it we regret that there is much less going on than there was.

  5. Delayed due audit?!?! by joao.cordeiro · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The progress was delayed because of the lack of funding...... The audit only writes it down into paper.. The congress is directly responsable for the lack of funding and the need of such huge funding. GAO makes a great job and titles/articles like this are directed to slam their name into the trash...

    1. Re:Delayed due audit?!?! by vikingpower · · Score: 1

      Good point. Required Snark, above, overlooks one detail: for the Apollo program, funding was essentially unlimited, which is far from being the case now.

      --
      Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
    2. Re:Delayed due audit?!?! by Required+Snark · · Score: 2
      How do you kill a program that is already has budget troubles? Shut it down and do an audit. It's the bureaucratic way to eliminate something while pretending to be responsible.

      And how often have over budget military programs been halted because of money? It has happened, but it's very rare. Meanwhile, we got the B-2 at over $1 billion per copy and the F-35 which is "Three years behind schedule and some $200 billion over its original budget". The original projected cost was about half what has already been spent.

      So how does NASA's trouble compare to that? NASA's entire 2015 budget was $18.01 billion. So who is worse when it comes to being "responsible" about managing technical risk? Did anyone suggest shutting down the F-35 program while they decided what to do about escalating costs and slipping schedules?

      --
      Why is Snark Required?
    3. Re: Delayed due audit?!?! by joao.cordeiro · · Score: 1

      GAO does reality checks, it does not control the reality. GAO my be asked to audit something but it is usualy required to do audits from time to time on certain projects, defined o the start of the project. What GAO does is compare milestones/spending from the inicial proposal with current state. Then they identify probable causes. Then they make Several recomendations. They dont close or delay projects! Some one else reads those reports and decides what recomendations it wishes to folow.

    4. Re:Delayed due audit?!?! by khallow · · Score: 3, Interesting

      So who is worse when it comes to being "responsible" about managing technical risk? Did anyone suggest shutting down the F-35 program while they decided what to do about escalating costs and slipping schedules?

      So we should let a boondoggle continue just because the US military is even shittier at ending bad programs?

      My take on SLS is that it should have never existed in the first place and it's not too late to end it now. It serves no national interest and we don't need its capabilities; it's enormously expensive and the economics are crappy (particularly, low launch frequency); and it creates a conflict of interest between benefactors of the SLS and the future of a US presence in space.

      That last point bears elaboration. There is a long, seedy tradition of aerospace companies using the law and such to backstab and obstruct each other. Usually, it's relatively minor like a rocket being delayed for a few months by bogus concerns or getting kicked off an Air Force launch pad because some competitor wants to mess up one's launch tempo.

      But with a huge funding stream like SLS gets, that can fund a lot worse than mere bureaucratic obstruction. For example, NASA delayed commercial space launch by a decade by mandating that all US-origin payloads had to go up on the Space Shuttle back in roughly 1975 (which also had the effect of massively delaying US payloads until the policy was reversed in 1984. Read this report to get an idea of the crap NASA pulled back then.

      We don't need a repeat of that regressive failure. The obvious approach is to end the conflict of interest by defunding the SLS and the parasitic ex-Shuttle supply chain. Then there's no one left to care enough to prevent the US private industry from delivering heavy lift vehicles that will actually get used.

    5. Re:Delayed due audit?!?! by DanielRavenNest · · Score: 1

      > Then there's no one left to care enough to prevent the US private industry from delivering heavy lift vehicles that will actually get used.

      Space industry in total was $335 billion in 2015 ( http://www.sia.org/wp-content/... ), two-thirds of which are satellite-based. There were 1,381 active satellites by the end of last year. NASA just isn't driving space development any more. They account for a little over 5% of the total. A rocket like the Falcon 9/Heavy is a good combination to address the whole market. Falcon 9 for the majority of launches, and Falcon Heavy for the occasional ones that need bigger payload mass. Since the Heavy uses the same production line, it doesn't get penalized much for a lower flight rate.

    6. Re:Delayed due audit?!?! by khallow · · Score: 1

      A rocket like the Falcon 9/Heavy is a good combination to address the whole market.

      Only if it's allowed to launch.

      We already have two examples of potential commercial launch operators being prohibited from operating. In addition to the above Shuttle monopoly, a similar thing happened to E'Prime Aerospace which was at one point working on refurbishing decommissioned Peacekeeper MX missiles for commercial launch to orbit. They lost that option in the late 90s when Russia negotiated the Start II Treaty where one provision was that the MX missiles could no longer be used for commercial launch. The treaty is no longer in force, meaning Orbital Sciences has been able to launch those missiles as a first stage of some of its Minotaur rockets.

      Or the FAA or other US government agencies (NASA isn't the only game in town) could require SpaceX to meet ridiculous standards in order to operate (say you have to show that your launch has less than a one in one billion chance of killing someone who is not involved in the launch before you can get FAA approval).

      SLS is not going to last long, unprotected, when SpaceX can put up more payload (over several launches rather than the one launch) more reliably for significantly less cost (including the US government not having to spend billions to develop or maintain the Falcon Heavy). The obvious route is to kneecap the competition.

  6. nice source... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    christian science monitor is always the first place i go to for science news.

    1. Re:nice source... by vikingpower · · Score: 1

      I dearly hope this was sarcasm. Or irony.

      --
      Religous speak to God. Insane are spoken to by God. When all shut up, one can finally hear Shostakovich in peace
  7. Like Trump's tax returns by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Routine government audits are the worst.

  8. Lunar Orbit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why are they putting it into Lunar orbit??? What is the value vs a satellite vs landing it on moon vs Mar's moon??

  9. Government Efficiency by Dunbal · · Score: 2

    Audit NASA, which has hardly any budget. Do not audit the Pentagon, where trillions disappear regularly.

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
  10. things NASA does and does not do well by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    There is something NASA does very, very well. Deep space exploration. It is the premier organization on the planet for this, with by far the most impressive record. It is the only organization to send probes to the outer solar system. Something it started doing in the early 1970's) with Pioneer 10, the first Jupiter flyby. It operates the only Mars rovers. It has a better record at Mars landers than anyone else, by far. There have been a few brilliant successes by other organizations, but in terms of scale, it's very much "NASA", and then distantly, "everyone else" when it comes to solar system exploration.

    There is something NASA does NOT do well. Space trucking. It could contract with SpaceX for heavy launch at under 5% of what it's going to spend doing so itself. It could contract with ULA, who are highly reliable and currently reducing their own costs, although still pricer than SpaceX. Rather than the US govt dictating that 5-segment SRBs must be used because those are providing jobs in this congressional district, they could simply approach SpaceX, say, "this is the capability we want", and save billions of dollars.

    Let NASA do what it does better than anyone else in the world: deep space science. Get it out of the space-truck business, where it will never provide value for money. As it stands, SpaceX's own private effort to land humans on Mars is likely to beat NASA's on both budget and time, raising a lot of questions about just what happened.

    1. Re:things NASA does and does not do well by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "t is the only organization to send probes to the outer solar system".
      Cassini? Rosetta? ESA has not only sent probes to the outer solar system, but is the only organisation to have landed probes there.

    2. Re:things NASA does and does not do well by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cassini was primarily NASA, with an ESA contributed instrument. But it was a NASA mission.

    3. Re:things NASA does and does not do well by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1

      This is an interesting debate.

      On the one hand, I agree with you. Why is NASA wasting money developing SLS? The heavy version isn't going to be that much better than Space X's heavy launcher.

      On the other hand, the SME-derived engines that NASA is using on SLS are beasts and I have no problem spending money to research making them better because, realistically, where is Space X's incentive for building a rocket more powerful than their heavy?

    4. Re:things NASA does and does not do well by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

      This may yet happen once Falcon 9 Heavy proves itself with manned missions. The problem is that, right now, SpaceX's human-rated heavy lift spaceflight is theoretical. It's hard to cancel NASA's plans for a commercial alternative that doesn't actually exist yet.

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      This space intentionally left blank
  11. Webb by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What's the probability of them screwing up the Webb telescope?

  12. doomed as a species by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ya know we really are doomed...the rich will go off and guess what land somewhere and ina few generatons themselves be gone with no serfs to run crap....

    the time it happens is when you have robots able to do ALL WORK and REPAIRS.....but even they break down eventually....

  13. "Trillions disappear regularly" by HBI · · Score: 1

    The whole DoD budget for multiple years wouldn't permit "trillions" to disappear. The DoD gets audited constantly, you just aren't paying attention.

    Lastly, when briefing Congress, the DoD uniformly briefs out issues of national survival, while NASA, however much you like it, is a "nice to have" cost center with no criticality.

    --
    HBI's Law: Frequency of calling others Nazis is directly correlated with the likelihood of the accuser being Communist.
  14. There's always a cheaper way to screw up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Over a few beers at the local pub, a few top Government Accountability Office (GAO) geniuses figured that placing Orion atop a huge sky rocket was expensive and simply stupid. In their view, there is less cost and technical issues to achieve launch by using a huge rubber band across a couple of 200 foot tall steal beams (huge nails) embedded in the ground. The launch would sequence would be simple, place the Orion against the rubber, have a few big construction trucks pull the band back then cut the rope.

    1. Re: There's always a cheaper way to screw up by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Aren't rocket engines just oodles of itty bitty rubber bands used in series?

  15. AUDIT THE FEDERAL RESERVE JEWS NOT NASA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wow this site is bullshit now.

  16. "Budget Issues" by ilsaloving · · Score: 1

    Well maybe NASA wouldn't have internal management and budget issues if congress didn't keep using it to play political football with.

    Is it any wonder that NASA hasn't done anything spectacular in the past several decades, with all the bullshit games that various senators play, whether it's trying to keep federal funds funneling into their state, or some anti-science moron forces NASA to be managed by conspiracy theorists?

  17. Just Say No to Tin Cans by sycodon · · Score: 1

    Mars isn't going anywhere. There is no need to rush, just to say we got there.

    What they should be spending money on is building a for real ship.

    What is a "Ship"?

    1. Long term and adequate power source...nuclear reactor of some kind.
    2. Artificial gravity (no, not Star Trek, Centripetal Wheel living quarters).
    3. Magnetic shielding
    4. A non-chemical Power source.
    5. Built to last...no one and done crap.

    Accomplishing this alone will stimulate more technological development that a mission to mars would. And you would end up with something reusable, versatile and useful.

    --
    When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    1. Re:Just Say No to Tin Cans by Gavagai80 · · Score: 1

      Such a ship would have to be manufactured in orbit, and we're nowhere near that capability.

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  18. Priorities? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    NASA can't have $11bn to send someone to Mars, but defense can have $380bn to spend 15 years on a fighter jet no one wanted?

  19. In order to get your ass to Mars. . . by Salgak1 · · Score: 1

    Set up a moonbase, use solar power to crack oxygen out of the regolith, and mine the ice in the polar craters. Now you have fuel AND metals. Use that to build a real, permanent orbital infrastructure.

    Eventually, capture a small asteroid, mine enough of it out for installing life support, quarters, etc, and put it into a Mars Cycler orbit. Send it unmanned for a few cycles ( or mine/build several, and launch on trajectory every few months) to build up some infrastructure, or even just supplies in Mars Orbit. Maybe even put it on Phobos or Deimos.

    Then, once you have habitat and supplies there (and perhaps a lander and ascent vehicle or three...), THEN send a manned mission.

    Slow and steady will get you there AND back home. . .

    1. Re:In order to get your ass to Mars. . . by DanielRavenNest · · Score: 1

      Space systems engineer here. Overall these are good ideas, but I think the mission sequence and technical details are slightly off:

      * Near Earth Asteroids (NEA) are easier to start with. They can be reached entirely with electric propulsion, while landing on the Moon requires chemical propulsion. The latter require about 10 times as much propellant for the same mission velocity. To reach an asteroid you can use the Moon itself for a gravity assist, so the delta-V to reach the well-placed ones is actually lower than reaching the Lunar surface.

      * The mass return ratio of an electric tug fetching rock from NEAs is about 200:1 over it's operating life, assuming you mine some of the returned rock for propellant for later trips. Up to 20% of the rock is water and carbon compounds. These can be reformed to oxygen + hydrocarbons, which is high thrust chemical fuel. This fuel can then be used to land on the Moon, or other missions that need the higher thrust levels. 20% x 200:1 means the yield of chemical fuel can be 40:1.

      * Processing rock to useful products is best done in open space where you get sunlight 100% of the time. The Lunar surface only averages 50%, and polar craters where ice freezes out get 0%, which is why they are cold enough to trap ice.

      * Five out of six discovered NEA are larger than 30 meters in size ( http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/ ), which means their mass is a minimum of 18,000 tons, and ranges much higher depending on composition and size. These are too massive to move, so mining will be a surface-scraping operation at first. Dust and pebbles will be easier to run through the processing equipment. Hollowing out natural asteroids is not a good idea, because most of them are the end result of multiple impacts. They are very likely structurally flawed. Placing smaller pieces in storage lockers *around* fabricated modules can provide radiation shielding and hold pressure more safely.

      * Once you have access to the Lunar surface, set up a centrifugal catapult and launch bulk materials into orbit for processing. You want to use both Lunar and NEA raw materials because they have different histories and compositions. Lunar launch, even with 50% sunlight, has much higher mass return ratios and shorter transit times, so you definitely want it as an upgrade.

      * Definitely bootstrap mining and processing wherever you go. There are just as many asteroids near a Mars Cycler orbit as near Earth, our home planet is not special in that regard. So a tug can fetch raw rock to your cycling habitat for radiation shielding and later processing. Phobos is a very large resource to mine, and it is likely to have water and carbon compounds (we need to actually visit it to be sure.

      * Again, the general idea of bootstrapping mining and production from local materials is very much right. The leverage on not having to bring everything from Earth is huge.

    2. Re:In order to get your ass to Mars. . . by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1

      This isn't a bad idea, but it does make me chuckle...

      When I was a kid back in the 1970s, I picked up a book published in 1958 for kids that talked about "the future of space flight." They talked about flights on a spaceplane (eg, the X-20). This would lead to the construction of a space station in orbit (such as what you see in 2001: A Space Odyssey) and, eventually, trips to the Moon coming along sometime in the late 1980s.

      That was sort of the "plan" way back when and, if you look at older science-fiction, it follows that.

      But Kennedy came along and, in a pissing contest with the Soviets, said, "We'll race you to the Moon!" And the whole idea was to put someone on the Moon and bring them home safely, but not much planning into what to do after that.

    3. Re:In order to get your ass to Mars. . . by dbIII · · Score: 1

      There was plenty of planning but the missions were cut and skylab was left to deorbit.

    4. Re:In order to get your ass to Mars. . . by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      I'd say put a base on the moon first. Test it. If anything fails, you can get your crew back home in 3-4 days, that's survivable even if they run out of water (oxygen would be a trifle more problematic), but that's basically a good way to see whether it's sustainable. Can you survive 2-3 years on the moon without supplies from Earth? Good. Then you're set for a Mars trip.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    5. Re:In order to get your ass to Mars. . . by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      Yes, and back then we neither had the technology nor the reason to go to the moon. Today there's both. We do have the relevant technology to get there and the US need something to push the technology envelope again.

      The first moon shot got us processes, metallurgy, propulsion and electronics. This one would get us a boost in biology, biotechnology, medicine and sociology. And we do need a lot of work in these fields, and soon. We need more and better nutrition, we have to find a way to get our population healthy again and I don't even want to start about our social issues.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    6. Re:In order to get your ass to Mars. . . by dbIII · · Score: 1

      We need more and better nutrition, we have to find a way to get our population healthy again

      Remote area exploration of the late 1800s and early 1900s was a non-trivial driver of increased understanding of nutrition.

  20. And, you know... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Despite popular belief the radiation is still there.

  21. um... Priorities, the word means something by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    First, NASA has been spending about $18 billion per year every year since we lost the orbiter Columbia in 2003, that's THIRTEEN YEARS. The Orion capsule design was selected based on the Apollo OML (Outer mold Line, AKA "shape") because that shape had extremely well-known structural, aerodynamic and hydrodynamic characteristics so using it instead of something newer and better would save time and money. The Orion capsule will not be capable of hauling people into space until 2022 (that will be NINETEEN YEARS after Columbia) and it will only carry 4 crew, while Apollo in one configuration that was setup (for a rescue mission to Skylab) but not flown (because the on-orbit crew solved the problem with their spacecraft) could carry 5.

    Second, national defense is the FIRST DUTY of any national government. The Constitution requires the feds to provide for the common defense, but has no requirement that the feds explore/colonise space.

    Third, We have wasted BILLIONS on stupid projects like the James Webb Space Telescope which is many years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget and which will only be usefule to look at things so far from Earth that man will not be able to go to those places for 10000 years. The moon, on the other hand, is only a 3 day trip, and Mars is a several months trip.

    Fourth, President Obama keeps claiming he has created a great economy, but on his watch the food stamps program has DOUBLED from about $40 BILLION PER YEAR to about $80 billion PER YEAR. Had Obama actually gotten the economy moving, and the labor partiticaption rate not become the worst since the 1970s, that $40 BILLION PER YEAR increase would not be needed and would be available for productive stuff.

  22. What "Journey to Mars"? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There is no plan, no budget, no timeline, no nothing. GAO has pointed this out, CBO has pointed this out, as have other government entities. The Obama plan to go to Mars consists of two elements:

    (1) Block any efforts congress makes to back a journey to Mars (like slow-walking all SLS rocket related activities) while disabling the infrastructure to sabotage future efforts (like letting SpaceX take over LC39 pad A and mangle it so no non-SpaceX rockets can use it). SpaceX built a fricking building in the middle of the crawler way to 39A and are filling-in part of the flame trench! When the Obama admin said it was creating a modern "multi-user" space port, they claimed each user youd stack in the VAB on its own custom MLP and then get crawlered-out to one of the two post-shuttle "clean pads", but like everything else they do it was a misdirection. Any manned "Journey to mars" will require multiple heavy lifter launches in very short time (because cryo fuels boil-off rapidly) and with only pad 39B available for anybody but SpaceX Mars aint gonna happen (pads need refurbishing between launches which always damage them) .

    (2) Plaster the NASA website with the slogan "Journey to Mars" so that stupid gullible people who visit the NASA web site will think there is a plan to go to Mars.

    The previous administration at least had a plan - they had budgets and schedules. Unfortunately BushJr lacked the follow-through and did not sufficiently fund it so it kept slipping its schedule. When Obama got into office, he "improved" things by eliminating any plans and timelines and budgets for Mars, so there is no metric against which his non-progress on his non-commitment cam be measured.

    Basic rule of government: When there is an actual plan to do something, there are budgets and schedules. Competent governments then proceed to actually implement the plans within the alloted times and budgets.

    Failure to plan = planning to fail.

  23. Let Space X do it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Rather than Nasa since Eldon Musk wants to land a man or mars let spacex do it. Perhaps it is time to shift to a government prize for various deep space accomplishments, rather that directing the work. DARPA did this with the first phases of self driving cars, and of course if you go back far enough the English government did it with the issue of Longitude. Perhaps 10 billion to the first group that lands a group on mars and returns them safely to the earth. (It would be interesting to see if the Launch Alliance would change their way of working to compete. It might be a little less safety oriented but