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How a 1967 Solar Storm Nearly Led To Nuclear War (space.com)

schwit1 quotes a report from Space.com: A powerful solar storm nearly heated the Cold War up catastrophically a half century ago, a new study suggests. The U.S. Air Force began preparing for war on May 23, 1967, thinking that the Soviet Union had jammed a set of American surveillance radars. But military space-weather forecasters intervened in time, telling top officials that a powerful sun eruption was to blame, according to the study. "Had it not been for the fact that we had invested very early on in solar and geomagnetic storm observations and forecasting, the impact [of the storm] likely would have been much greater," Delores Knipp, a space physicist at the University of Colorado Boulder and the study's lead author, said in a statement. "This was a lesson learned in how important it is to be prepared." Initially, it was assumed that the Soviet Union was to blame. Since radar jamming is considered an act of war, "commanders quickly began preparing nuclear-weapon-equipped aircraft for launch." Spoiler: Solar forecasters at the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) figured out it was a flare that caused the outages, not the Soviets. You can read the abstract of the paper for free here.

66 comments

  1. Almost... by TheDarAve · · Score: 5, Funny

    "Solar forecasters at the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) figured out it was a flare that caused the outages, not the Soviets."

    At which point the United States declared war on the Sun and began its long war to liberate space. 'MERICA!

    1. Re:Almost... by TFlan91 · · Score: 1

      jokes on you, the sun has been at war with the Earth for billions of years.

      all reports say that it will win in time.

      'Merica will stop it.

    2. Re: Almost... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Sun trolled us pretty bad

    3. Re:Almost... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From "Born to be Wild" (Steppenwolf, 1968):

      Fire all of your guns at once
      And explode into space

    4. Re:Almost... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      At which point the United States declared war on the Sun and began its long war to liberate space. 'MERICA!

      Poppycock.

      Our government doesn't declare war. We just invent some moralistic rationales about the "threat" to our "security" and then we crank up our mass media propaganda system to "sell" the war before we attack. :(

    5. Re:Almost... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I was working on military communication equipment on Baffin Island at that very time and there was a tightening of security and much discussion of some anomalous propagation disturbances.

      We didn't really learn too much about it at the time, but it was all referred to the Defense Communication Authority (DCA) as it happened. From memory, communication outages related to the sun were always logged as "Cashbox".

    6. Re:Almost... by Lennie · · Score: 1

      Poppycock.

      Our government doesn't declare war. We just invent some moralistic rationales about the "threat" to our "security" and then we crank up our mass media propaganda system to "sell" the war before we attack. :(

      Yep, declare war on a thing/word/concept that will solve everything. ;-)

      War on drugs, war on terror, what's next ?

      --
      New things are always on the horizon
    7. Re:Almost... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      War on indifference? Meh, whatever.

    8. Re:Almost... by hey! · · Score: 2

      We'll seize the element of surprise, by landing on it at night.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  2. CPE1704TKS by quenda · · Score: 1

    CPE1704TKS

    1. Re:CPE1704TKS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That would make a cool username.

    2. Re:CPE1704TKS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Joke's on you... you're not going to get me to Google that!

    3. Re:CPE1704TKS by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'd rather play a nice game of chess.

  3. Bug by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 1

    I'd be more worried about a bug. On either side. A bug that triggers the launch a weapon. Or a bug that falsely identify a weapon has been launched.

    --
    Slashdot, fix the reply notifications... You won't get away with it...
    1. Re:Bug by TheDarAve · · Score: 1

      You mean like what happened on 26 September 1983? Remember to say thank you to Stanislav Petrov!

    2. Re:Bug by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It happened, too. In 1983 a Soviet satellite peeked several launches from America and they believed the was the start of an attack. Luckily the soldier that was supervising the system overrode the alarm because he thought the system was wrong, but the signal was coming back again. It turned out to be a glare from ultraviolet light coming from the upper atmosphere and reflecting over some clouds to confuse the sensors of that satellite.In this case (see also Able Archer 83) we came really close to a full scale retaliation from the soviets.

    3. Re:Bug by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Stories have a way of evolving over time. The cold war was a time of great uncertainty, fear, and distrust. The US and the Soviets were both very uncertain about the technical capabilities of each other. The realities of WWII were still fresh in the minds of many. So when something like this occurred that was not understood, defense mechanisms were kicked into action.

      But that does not mean we were ready to push the button or we would have if some scientists hadn't stepped in. It seems that we went through a process of evaluating all of the possibilities, and with the insight of the space program contributors to that process we figured out the cause, and it happened fairly quickly.

      I'm sure that over the years some of those scientists liked to tell the story of how they saved the day. And its inevitable that over time the implication of how close we were to pushing the button was enhanced to make the story more interesting. But reality is often a bit more boring and the most likely reality is that we were still early in the process of evaluating the situation and only taking preliminary defensive actions.

      Its an interesting story nonetheless, but time has its way of dramatizing things.

    4. Re: Bug by BlytheBowman · · Score: 1

      Wow, I was starting First grade then :|

    5. Re:Bug by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Almost funny when you think about the many times we've been at the brink of total anihilation. Finding link to multitudes of near-war episodes left as an exercise. If you can't find it, simply means they're off the children's radar.

      Captcha: chivalry

  4. Odd... by Richard_at_work · · Score: 1

    Blocking radar is an "act of war" but sending powerful radar deep into your enemies territory isnt?!

    1. Re:Odd... by rfengr · · Score: 1

      I suppose blocking (stealth, chaff, decoys) and jamming are different.

    2. Re:Odd... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      you will find a lot of such oddities.

      Apparently flying spy planes over Russia is also not an act of war, but if Russia did the same thing would it be equally acceptable?
      Putting nuclear weapons right next to Russia is OK, but when Russia put them in Cuba it wasn't OK.

      "
      This was the moment when Secretary of State Dean Rusk, by his own account, uttered the most memorable line of the missile crisis: “We’re eyeball to eyeball, and I think the other fellow just blinked.”
      "

      Odd, because most of the recount of the Cuban missile crisis fails to discuss JFK's secret deal to remove nuclear weapons from Russia's border, choosing instead to paint a "US Victory" as Russia removed nuclear weapons from Cuba.

      later when his secret deal was known, the weapons were "outdated" and "redundant" to downplay the action.

      It is also interesting how often we hear about "Russian incompetence" and "close calls" but not so much about US incompetence, lost weapons, accidents, etc.

      A good book on the topic: https://www.amazon.ca/Command-Control-Damascus-Accident-Illusion/dp/0143125788

    3. Re:Odd... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      They just wanted the war. Not that all these training and HW would go waste because Ruskis did not attack. come to think of it - all the waste because Ruskis did not attack was an act of war - where is the guy with the codes?

    4. Re:Odd... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Jamming, raspberry jamming.

    5. Re:Odd... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Troll

      Apparently flying spy planes over Russia is also not an act of war, but if Russia did the same thing would it be equally acceptable?

      And they've blown a U-2 out of the air. Apparently you know very little about how the game is played.

      It is also interesting how often we hear about "Russian incompetence" and "close calls" but not so much about US incompetence, lost weapons, accidents, etc.

      Uhm.. it has it has been documented. I know somebody involved in one of the incidents, and his career didn't go very far after the fuckup... but then again, I get it: you just want to piss and moan about the US.

      So, nowadays we have a re-emboldened Russia fucking around in Crimea and Ukraine knocking on Europe's door (make no mistake, a Western Europe with no US-backed NATO would be absolutely fucked), and China constructing artificial islands in the South China Sea.

      Here's my attitude, motherfucker: you can't handle the truth.

    6. Re:Odd... by Barefoot+Monkey · · Score: 1

      Right here. The code is 00000000.

    7. Re:Odd... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry, can you outline how many fly overs the russians made vs how many the americans did?

    8. Re:Odd... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Blocking radar is an "act of war" but sending powerful radar deep into your enemies territory isnt?!

      Not odd at all. Radar is used to watch for an attack. It is purely defensive.

      Blocking radar takes out these defenses. It is to prevent an enemy from seeing an attack coming.

      If an enemy knocks out your radar or communication, it is a near certainty that an attack is imminent. An unexpected solar storm looks identical to that.

    9. Re:Odd... by jmichaelg · · Score: 2

      >Sorry, can you outline how many fly overs the russians made vs how many the americans did?

      I don't ordinarily respond to cowards but this really needs addressing.

      The Russians didn't fly over the U.S. for two reasons. One, they didn't have U2 or SR71 technology so they couldn't do flyovers without getting shot down. Two they didn't need to. Russia had entire cities that foreigners weren't allowed to travel. We on the other hand only restricted access to military bases. Hell, Khrushchev rode a train through one of our nuclear missile bases when he toured the U.S.

      The USSR was a huge entity spanning 11 time zones so missiles in Turkey weren't anywhere near as threatening to Moscow as Cuban missiles were to Miami. Nonetheless, Kennedy agreed to remove them in exchange for the Soviets withdrawing their missiles from Cuba.

    10. Re: Odd... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Because, as we all know, Miami is the Capitol city of the us. Oh, wait, no it isn't, you were just using a ridiculous false equivalence. The distance from Moscow to Turkey is actually pretty close to the same as the distance from Washington DC to Cuba. The distance from cubu to cities in Florida like Miami is likewise similar to the distance from Turkey to cities in the former Soviet Union.

    11. Re:Odd... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Sorry, can you outline how many fly overs the russians made vs how many the americans did?"
      I doubt anyone could answer this question. Both countries certainly don't make announcements after violating some ones air space. And I doubt the US or Russian governments can say with any certainty that they detected all violations of their air space. Of course it doesn't matter today. Russia is a 3rd world country with a large nuclear deterrent. That doesn't automatically make them equals at the table with the US and China. Russia has no world economic power. Their GDP is less than the state of California's. Their economy and trade volumes are a rounding error when compared against the US and China. About the only thing they can do is re-conquer their old eastern European client states because the pussies in western Europe wouldn't try to stop them. The EU would just give Russia back their vassals for a peace treaty. Europe's character has hardly improved since WW2 when they thought they could negotiate their way to peace while maintain the own vassal states scattered across the globe at the time.

      Believe it or not right after the cold war the US and Russia started allowing each other pre-scheduled over flights of their territory. There were only a few off limit areas. Of course that practice stopped a few years back. About the same time the US refused to allow any Russian ground GPS repeaters to be placed on US soil.

    12. Re:Odd... by colinwb · · Score: 1

      "Radar is used to watch for an attack. It is purely defensive."
      No, it isnt. For example H2S was an airborne radio system used by the Royal Air Force in World War 2 (and afterwards) to identify targets on the ground for night and all-weather bombing.

  5. Bloated science waste by GenieGenieGenie · · Score: 1

    Is the space weather forecasting program one of the things Trump wants to ax to pay for his tax programs?

    1. Re:Bloated science waste by kjell79 · · Score: 1

      Well, it wouldn't surprise me if he lumps weather forecasters in with the media. The same media that he considers is out to get him and ruin his campaign. And even if he does not cut funding, if another solar storm happens will Trump even listen to these people? I'm a pretty moderate and pragmatic guy but I find it astounding that so many people are voting for him.

    2. Re:Bloated science waste by GenieGenieGenie · · Score: 1

      Sounds about right.... "What will be the weather tomorrow? Let's ask the Trump campaign and proceed by further elimination".

    3. Re: Bloated science waste by BlytheBowman · · Score: 1

      If Trump wins, he will have the same media "that is out to get him" in locked metal collars and heavy chains, and will use it to push all of his agendas.

    4. Re:Bloated science waste by oneiros27 · · Score: 1

      I don't know, but there are at least three groups that forecast space weather --

      NOAA SWPC gives the official reports to the public.
      NASA CCMC also runs forecasting for stuff (and people) in space, as they're not protected by the magnetosphere.
      USAF has a group that does it for the exact reason in the article ... but I don't think they make theirs public.

      The CCMC used to announce their storm forecasts on twitter ... but there was a time when they said a storm was going to be significant, and SWPC didn't ... after the kerfluffle, the CCMC was told not to announce their predictions to the public, as that's NOAA's job.

      Luckily, there are a fair number of groups that would complain if they tried to cut out the forecasting -- airlines use to to protect their crew from increased radiation (they avoid polar flights during storms), and power companies use it to determine if they need to take precautions. Communications companies use them to determine if they need to 'safe' their satellites. And NASA uses 'em both for their satellites, and to warn astronauts to take shelter.

      --
      Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
  6. little known fact from the 1962 Cuban Crisis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    U.S. veterans reveal 1962 nuclear close call dodged in Okinawa

    *******************

    At the final moment of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, the U.S. nuclear missile men in Okinawa received a launch order which was later found to have been mistakenly issued, according to testimonies by former U.S. veterans given to Kyodo News.

    In the fall of 1962, the Soviet Union introduced nuclear missiles into Cuba from where Moscow could target the mainland of the United States. U.S. President John F. Kennedy and his top advisers then seriously considered military options as a countermeasure, and the two superpowers were on the brink of nuclear exchanges.

    The testimonies by the veterans, who gazed into the "abyss" of a nuclear war, shed new historical light on a nuclear close call which could have triggered the use of nuclear weapons, highlighting the potential risk of an accidental nuclear launch.

    According to John Bordne, 73, former member of the 873rd Tactical Missile Squadron of the U.S. Air Force, several hours after his crew took over a midnight shift from 12 a.m. on Oct. 28 in 1962 at the Missile Launch Control Center at Yomitan Village in Okinawa, a coded order to launch missiles was conveyed in a radio communication message from the Missile Operations Center at the Kadena Air Base.

    Another former U.S. veteran who served in Okinawa also recently confirmed on condition of anonymity what Bordne told Kyodo News in an interview last summer and in following e-mail exchanges. Bordne has mentioned the incident in an unpublished memoir based on his diary.

    Eight "Martin Marietta Mace B" nuclear cruise missiles were deployed at that time at the Yomitan missile site, called "Site One Bolo Point" by U.S. military personnel. Bordne, who currently lives in Blakeslee, Pennsylvania, was one of seven crew members there.

    There were a total of four Mace B sites in Okinawa including Bolo Point. Each site had eight missiles which were commanded and controlled by the Missile Operations Center at Kadena.

    The main daily mission of Bordne, one of the flight-control specialists called Mech2, was to maintain the ready-to-launch status of Mace B missiles. Normally, once they started an eight-hour shift at the site, they "recycled" a missile, meaning powering down a missile, checking parts of the warhead, nosecone and flight control systems and returning it to ready-to-launch status.

    "Oh, my God!," Bordne recalled his colleagues as saying as they turned white with shock and surprise when they received a launch order before dawn on Oct. 28. The order was issued from Kadena to all four Mace B sites in Okinawa including Bolo Point, he said.

    According to him, the three-level confirmation process was taken step-by-step in accordance with a manual by comparing codes in the launch order and codes given to his crew team in advance. All of the codes matched.

    "So, we read the targets out loud. Out of the four missiles, we had only one headed toward Russia. The other three were not going to Russia. That, right away, gave us a start to wonder. Because the launch directive said you launch all the missiles," Bordne said. His crew team was in charge of four out of eight missiles deployed at the site.

    "And we figured, 'Why hit these other countries?' They've got nothing to do with this. That doesn't make any sense," Bordne said. "So, our captain, the launch officer, said to us 'We've got to think this through in a logical, rational manner'."

    When the launch order was issued, the five-level "DEFCON" scale, or defense condition, remained at level 2, one step from starting a war. Theoretically, a launch order should not be issued unless DEFCON is raised to 1, which means initiating a military counterattack against enemy forces.

    The order under DEFCON 2 made the crew team, especially the launch officer, so dubious about its authenticity that the officer ordered suspen

    1. Re:little known fact from the 1962 Cuban Crisis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That was never a close call. It was an obviously bogus message that was immediately recognized as such. The person who reported this story was a junior enlisted man who heard parts of it and made up the rest..

    2. Re:little known fact from the 1962 Cuban Crisis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...says an AC without even a newspaper article to back it up?

    3. Re:little known fact from the 1962 Cuban Crisis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Google is your friend

    4. Re: little known fact from the 1962 Cuban Crisis by BlytheBowman · · Score: 1

      This is scary and also very creepy. Defently not some computer glitch (as far as the launch order and which countries to attack goes) because the entire launch system was made up of code books, papers inside double padlocked steel boxes, metal keys, radio/telephone links and most importantly, the human mind. Who would give such an order, and how did it make it all the way through the command and security chain to the men who were tasked to "push the button"?

    5. Re:little known fact from the 1962 Cuban Crisis by sabbede · · Score: 1

      I think the story about a Russian error in translating TV listings was more interesting. At the height of the crisis, US TV stations were scheduled to re-run a speech by Kennedy on the crisis. Russians didn't grasp the concept of re-runs, so they thought he had a new speech scheduled, and assumed it would be a declaration of war. So they pulled out of Cuba.

  7. Spoiler? by suman28 · · Score: 1

    That was not as much a spoiler as it was a fact. Spoiler: description of an important plot development in a television show, movie, or book which if previously known may reduce surprise or suspense We know how it ends! Duh

  8. Too common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's almost enough to make you believe in a higher power sometimes... the number of occasions where a false-positive or erroneous interpretation of data brought the world to the brink of thermonuclear war. Forget every history class you ever had about the greatest people who ever lived. Be grateful that there was someone like Stanislav Petrov at the right place, and the right time. Arguably the most important human being who ever lived in terms of outcomes for the human race as a whole; yet few people know his name.

    Fuck these weapons. If we had any sense as a species we would impose total trade bans and seizure of foreign assets on any nation that held them. The only nation to actually use nuclear weapons promotes itself as 'exceptional', while having the presidential campaign of a banana republic, and structured as the over-extended, late-era Roman empire. The other big nuclear player is currently a banana republic by any metric. Number three is totally reliant on foreign income, and sees itself in glorious nationalistic terms to avoid any self-reflection - they've nothing to gain - but need to be forced into that realisation. The only way to avoid the Thucydides trap is for the rest of the world to make it economically impossible to maintain these arsenals. It might not have been possible in the past, but there are enough trading options today to make this happen. e.g., if you have a nuclear arsenal, we do not trade with you. We do not respect your intellectual property, copyrights, claims, or assets, they are ignored. Your IP - technological, medicinal, etc., is forfeit. If we can't prevent a self-imposed, hair-trigger existential threat, what fucking chance do we have against external threats?

  9. No it didn't. by LWATCDR · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It did not almost start a nuclear war. The system back then was actually better thought out than the one we have today. The DEW line was "jammed". If the military really thought that it was the soviets then the alert bombers would have been launched and would have flown to the failsafe line then gone back to base.
    No war.
    The most you can say is that the US considered launching it's alert bombers to the failsafe line.

    --
    See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    1. Re:No it didn't. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The most you can say is that the US considered launching it's alert bombers to the failsafe line.

      And how would the Soviets reacted to the US launching bombers?

      And how would the US have reacted to that?

      etc.

    2. Re:No it didn't. by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

      They would may have launched their bombers to the fail safe line but probably not. The US bombers would have been recalled in about 30 minutes and they would not have launched all the alert bombers.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
  10. Trump's respose to this would be... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The reds are going to use the solar storm as cover to launch an attack, while we are here sitting around thinking everything is ok. I mean isn't that what you would do in their place, it's just good business, I'm just being a businessman.

  11. Same 'ol same 'ol by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    assumed that the Soviet Union was to blame.

    Nothing's changed, per email hacks. We just call them "Russians" now.

    1. Re:Same 'ol same 'ol by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      assumed that the Soviet Union was to blame.

      Nothing's changed, per email hacks. We just call them "Russians" now.

      This, like Hillary is doing now with the DNC email problem that got the top four Democrat party leaders fired. She blames the Russians instead of her own crooked party for what her crooked party did.

    2. Re:Same 'ol same 'ol by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      I'm sure if we saw RNC's emails, "fun stuff" would happen to GOP also.

  12. Not a surprise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    typically of the US, of blaming on others the problems they experience...

    1. Re:Not a surprise by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      troll harder, brah. this ain't facebook.

  13. There was no threat of a weapons launch by clovis · · Score: 1

    The launch system, on both the USA and Soviet sides, was designed in anticipation of events such as this one. That is to say, the system balanced the need for a quick response to detection events to the need to prevent false/rogue launches.
    The launch system had several levels of decisions and coordination among people that had to be met before an attack would be launched, and people and protocols were placed with the authority to prevent launches at every level.
    There were several such events like this one during the cold war, and what appears to have been some individual person acting to prevent a launch was part of the system's design.

    The downside to total nuclear war is that we have no backups for Earth.

  14. Just like the FBI @ Slashdot NEARLY escaped HELL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    No worry FBI, you will not be part of any nuclear wars. Wipe those tears.

    On a related note, all Slashdot summaries are FBI now and therefore tl;dr

  15. That or an excuse for a first strike by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Precisely given the tensions of the time, that or the perfect excuse for an US first strike that then some called for since the soviets' radar also would be jammed.

  16. Nuclear War in the Eighties by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    One day in the Eighties, I was working in a electronic company called Ferranti in Edinburgh, which had close ties to the Military, when we were alerted to a nuclear alert and all work stopped. We were told missiles had been launched, etc.

    Of course nothing happened and as the hour passed, we wondered what was going on. No mobile phones, no access to outside phones, no TVs or radio to hand. At the end of the day as we had all signed the official secret act we couldn't really mention it and well there wasn't anything to tell!

    Years later I discovered that from watching a BBC documentary during a NATO test some idiot had forgotten to turn on a switch to indicate to all outposts that the following alert was just a test.

    So up and down the UK, thousands of us all got a glimpse of what it would be like if the missiles were about to come down....

    We basically sat around and waited....and waited....Long 5 minutes that was.

  17. just how many times have you americans by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    nearly destroyed civilisation and possible nearly all life on this planet as we know it since 1940?

  18. Soviet's side of the story? by manu0601 · · Score: 1

    The solar flare must have jammed USSR's radars too at the same time. How did they react? Do we have some information on this?

    1. Re:Soviet's side of the story? by ebvwfbw · · Score: 1

      I was thinking the same thing. Maybe an outage was so common they didn't give it a second thought?

    2. Re:Soviet's side of the story? by manu0601 · · Score: 1

      You seem to assume USSR military gear was as rusted and unreliable in the sixties as it was when USSR collapsed. I am not sure it was the case, otherwise USSR would not have been considered a threat.

    3. Re:Soviet's side of the story? by sabbede · · Score: 1

      Same here. I'm guessing there was some direct communication about it.

  19. Just like the FBI @@ Slashdot NEARLY escaped HELL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Just like the FBI @ Slashdot NEARLY escaped HELL

  20. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion