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Toyota's New Solid-State Battery Could Make Its Way To Cars By 2020 (techcrunch.com)

According to the Wall Street Journal, Toyota is in production engineering for a solid state battery, which uses a solid electrolyte instead of the conventional semi-liquid version used in today's lithium-ion batteries. The company said it aims to put the new tech in production electric vehicles as early as 2020. TechCrunch reports: The improved battery technology would make it possible to create smaller, more lightweight lithium-ion batteries for use in EVs, that could also potentially boost the total charge capacity and result in longer-range vehicles. Another improvement for this type of battery would be longer overall usable life, which would make it possible to both use the vehicles they're installed in for longer, and add potential for product recycling and alternative post-vehicle life (some companies are already looking into putting EV batteries into use in home and commercial energy storage, for example).

69 comments

  1. Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    Cool story, Bro. Except the reason we don't have solid electrolyte batteries is because the blow themselves to smithereens (along with everything around them) if you attempt to charge them at low temperature. They also suffer from serious sinusoidal deplanaration if their cardinal grammeters are not absolutely perfectly synchronized. To top it all off, a solid electrolyte battery can't even convert energy through the modial interaction between magnetoreluctance and capacitive duractance, leaving us with the time honored yet ancient tradition of using the relative motion of conductors and fluxes.

    1. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 5, Funny

      They also suffer from serious sinusoidal deplanaration if their cardinal grammeters are not absolutely perfectly synchronized. To top it all off, a solid electrolyte battery can't even convert energy through the modial interaction between magnetoreluctance and capacitive duractance, leaving us with the time honored yet ancient tradition of using the relative motion of conductors and fluxes.

      I'm not sure if what you said is true or 100% made-up bullshit. Now I understand why they don't put more work into Star Trek techno-bable scripts.

      --
      #DeleteFacebook
    2. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by oddtodd · · Score: 1

      Actually, I read about a solid state battery being developed in a lab not too long ago. Can't remember where... gettin old is a biatch

      --
      I have plenty of common sense, I just choose to ignore it. -- Calvin
    3. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by mspohr · · Score: 3, Funny

      Sounds like a lot of problems.
      Best to go with dilithium crystals.

      --
      I don't read your sig. Why are you reading mine?
    4. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      No, he didn't take into account that the six hydrocoptic marzlevanes are so fitted to the ambifacient lunar waneshaft that side fumbling was effectively prevented.

    5. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      Oh it's absolutely true. In fact Rockwell Automation spent years developing a system for syncrhonizing cardinal grammeters in solid state batteries back when the idea was first thought of. You can watch a video about what went into that crazy development here:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

    6. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by drinkypoo · · Score: 3, Informative

      Actually, I read about a solid state battery being developed in a lab not too long ago. Can't remember where... gettin old is a biatch

      The last one I can recall is the lithium glass battery.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    7. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Can we please mod this down to -1?

      None of this is true besides the garbage about "a solid electrolyte battery can't even convert...", which it can't, and modial isn't even a word.

    8. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      I suspected you were joking on the second sentence but that last one really took the cake. :-)

    9. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by Shompol · · Score: 4, Informative

      Apparently the invention of cardinal grammeters goes as far back as 1944.

    10. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by oddtodd · · Score: 1

      That's the guy, I read it somewhere other than NPR.
      Pretty sharp for 94 years old, hope I'm still kickin and thinkin at that age.

      --
      I have plenty of common sense, I just choose to ignore it. -- Calvin
    11. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by Joce640k · · Score: 1

      I dunno. It might be easier to, ummmm, let's see.... warm them up.

      Nah, you'd need an electricity supply for that!

      Oh, wait...

      (facepalm)

      --
      No sig today...
    12. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by HiThere · · Score: 1

      That's plausibly the same device, but I've got to admit that *I'm* still not sure.

      OTOH, even if I were to accept the explanation, that wouldn't mean that there wasn't a way around it.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    13. Re:Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Rick Astley Probability > 90%

  2. Easy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Blah blah _could_ " yay I can stop reading now!

  3. "Solid State" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't think this word means what you think it means.

    1. Re:"Solid State" by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

      Ask a Weeping Angel. They know what it means. - The Doctor.

      --
      #DeleteFacebook
  4. Duh by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

    Some companies are already looking into putting EV batteries into use in home and commercial energy storage, for example.

    Wow Darrell, are you a detective?

    --
    #DeleteFacebook
  5. Another ZEBRA battery? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The molten salt battery was supposed to be the next big battery technology, until people realised you had to keep them at ~300C or they stop working.

    1. Re:Another ZEBRA battery? by knightghost · · Score: 1

      I think that was underground heat storage from solar, not electrical storage for cars.

    2. Re:Another ZEBRA battery? by DrXym · · Score: 1

      And molten salt is used extremely successfully in numerous solar power plants.

    3. Re:Another ZEBRA battery? by HiThere · · Score: 1

      Needing to keep then at ~300C just limits the domain of use, it doesn't say they aren't useful. You wouldn't use something like that in a laptop, but it might make a great line ballast (wrong word?). Another responder said they are in current use at electric plants (to store heat?)...seems plausible.

      300C isn't really all that hot, it just means you need good insulation, which means you don't use small batteries, and you don't use it where you need a small, light, battery.

      OTOH, were they ever proposed to store electricity? I haven't heard that. The places I've heard them proposed they were storing heat to feed to a steam turbine or some such. It would be the turbine (or some such) that would produce the electricity.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    4. Re:Another ZEBRA battery? by haruchai · · Score: 1

      The molten salt battery was supposed to be the next big battery technology, until people realised you had to keep them at ~300C or they stop working.

      Sumitomo claimed to be close to a commercial low-temp molten salt battery but it's now several years late & they've been quiet since 2014

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
  6. I call bullshit. by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 3, Funny

    Cool story, Bro. Except the reason we don't have solid electrolyte batteries is because the blow themselves to smithereens (along with everything around them) if you attempt to charge them at low temperature. They also suffer from serious sinusoidal deplanaration if their cardinal grammeters are not absolutely perfectly synchronized. To top it all off, a solid electrolyte battery can't even convert energy through the modial interaction between magnetoreluctance and capacitive duractance, leaving us with the time honored yet ancient tradition of using the relative motion of conductors and fluxes.

    Great, another AC troll on the site. The encabulation technology that resolves the thermal and deplanaration issue has be around since WW2. In 1962 a series of discoveries by GE enabled them to create the turboencabulator, the predecessor to the modern microencabulator. And really, magnetoreluctance? Magnetoconstrictors are practically naturally occurring. Be gone, foul beast!

    I swear it's like half the people on the internet don't have a clue about what they are talking about!

    --
    Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
    1. Re:I call bullshit. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Great, another AC troll on the site. The encabulation technology that resolves the thermal and deplanaration issue has be around since WW2. In 1962 a series of discoveries by GE enabled them to create the turboencabulator, the predecessor to the modern microencabulator. And really, magnetoreluctance? Magnetoconstrictors are practically naturally occurring. Be gone, foul beast!

      I swear it's like half the people on the internet don't have a clue about what they are talking about!

      Next slashdot submission headline:

      Half the people on the internet actually have a clue what they are talking about.

    2. Re:I call bullshit. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Shh... we don't want the world to know!

  7. Yawn. by Rei · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Tesla sells actual electric cars that people get in a waiting list years in advance to buy.
    GM sells actual electric cars that people generally yawn at.
    Toyota: Our lab-scale battery is gonna be a big hit in 2020!

    Solid state batteries are no real magic. It just means that you're using a solid electrolyte rather than a liquid one plus a membrane. They offer some nice benefits (such as resistance to dendrite punctures), but they hardly change the world on their own. They're a popular choice for working towards lithium-air batteries, which would be revolutionary, but there's no way anyone (including Toyota) is going to be mass-producing mature lithium-air batteries in 2020.

    But anyway... if you're not going to make EVs, I guess you can still make press releases about hypothetical EVs. Seems to be a popular alternative these days.

    And for the record... energy density really isn't the issue; Tesla has shown that you can get quite good range even with today's batteries without having your vehicles be excessively heavy (Model S, a bit over 2 tonnes; Model 3, a bit under). Cost per kilowatt hour is the issue. Tesla is reportedly at $190/kWh now and thinks they'll be at $100/kWh in a few years. But ideally you want even lower than that.

    --
    So, apart from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
    1. Re:Yawn. by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

      Well Toyota did make the Prius so they helped the segment get started. I would say the most meaningful vehicles along the way were probably the Toyota Prius, Nissan Leaf, and now the Chevrolet Bolt and the Tesla Model S.

    2. Re:Yawn. by Solandri · · Score: 5, Interesting
      Cumulative number of Tesla S sold = 150,000
      Cumulative number of Chevy Bolts sold = 8,000
      Cumulative number of Chevy Volts sold = 124,000

      Cumulative number of Toyota Prius sold = 4 million
      Cumulative number of Toyota hybrids sold = 9 million

      In terms of number of battery units produced, Tesla and GM are roundoff error compared to Toyota.

      Tesla sells actual electric cars that people get in a waiting list years in advance to buy.

      That tells you that there's something seriously wrong with the scalability of their production. (If you want to know what the problem is, Tesla relies on selling ZEV credits to other automakers to keep from going bankrupt. But other automakers only need a certain number of ZEV credits each year to comply with CARB regulations. So Tesla has to be careful not to produce too many ZEVs lest they cause the price of ZEV credits to plummet due to oversupply.)

    3. Re:Yawn. by Michael+Woodhams · · Score: 4, Informative

      The Toyota vs Tesla numbers is a point well made. However

      Tesla relies on selling ZEV credits to other automakers to keep from going bankrupt. But other automakers only need a certain number of ZEV credits each year to comply with CARB regulations. So Tesla has to be careful not to produce too many ZEVs lest they cause the price of ZEV credits to plummet due to oversupply.

      Can you provide evidence for this? An obvious alternative hypothesis is that Tesla would love to have much higher production, and are working as hard as they can to overcome the financial, organizational and engineering problems to be able to do so. Tesla say they will be soon be producing the model 3 in huge numbers, which means either they are lying, or they are abandoning the ZEV credit plan, or you are plain wrong. (Here is an article saying they are aiming for 400,000 to 600,000 per year, but also saying they can't realistically get over 230,000, and gives reasons entirely independent of ZEV credits.)

      --
      Quattuor res in hoc mundo sanctae sunt: libri, liberi, libertas et liberalitas.
    4. Re:Yawn. by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Seemes you missed the fact that Toyota is the world leader in hybrids and plug in hybrids.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    5. Re:Yawn. by nojayuk · · Score: 4, Interesting

      No, energy density is the key issue for electric vehicles, mass as well as volume but mostly mass. Old-style electric vehicles before lithium-ion batteries of various flavours were developed used bulky and heavy lead-acid and NiMH battery systems which didn't provide sufficient range due to their physical limitations. Li-ion batteries are typically twice the Watt-hours per kilogram figure of older battery tech.

      Even now a modern electric vehicle's battery pack makes up a large part of the volume and mass of the car for the range it provides. It's sufficiently small though to make them viable although the manufacturers want to improve that even more to reduce the cost of manufacture and extend the range between charges.

      I'm usually very cynical about "Biggest Battery Breakthrough Since Breakfast" stories but there are a few things about this one that make me sit up and take note. One is that it's Toshiba who have a track record of delivering new battery tech such as SCiB, a rapid-charge battery (zero to full in ten minutes) with very good operating life of several thousand cycles despite being fast-charged. The other is that they're working on building out production of this new battery (which might be based on SCiB) rather than announcing lab results and talking a lot about nanostructures and the like while scrabbling around for more development funding.

      I'm speculating here but it's possible the new Toshiba batteries will provide a fast-charge capability since they are supposedly solid-electrolyte. Fast-charge in the tank-of-gas time range period (five minutes or so) would mitigate range anxiety to a large extent if the infrastructure is in place to provide the large amounts of power to deliver fast-charge.

    6. Re:Yawn. by Rei · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Deflect much?

      1) The conversation was about electric cars, not hybrids. When someone says "I bought an electric car", they don't mean a hybrid. Toyota has no BEVs, and the longest range PHEV that they have has a whopping 11 miles range, which ranks fifth globally in PHEV/BEV sales, including the Model S which starts at literally over double its price.

      2) Your choice of comparing cumulative numbers to annual sales numbers is ridiculous. Toyota has been selling hybrids since long before Tesla even existed, and Tesla's growth has been exponential, meaning that for most of its history its sales were a fraction of what they were today, which is in turn a fraction of what they'll be next year.

      3) "Battery units" is even more absurd. Toyota has been sitting around on decades-old technology and hardly advancing at all. They got a hit nearly two decades ago and have been milking it ever since. They only even moved to li-ion a couple years ago, only on a minority of their fleet, and their li-ion technology is pathetic. Their drivetrain on all models is obsolete, with a terrible performance to mass ratio vs. what you find in BEVs. There's literally nothing in the EV world of interest coming out of Toyota these days. Seriously, "battery units"? Might as well define lead-acids as "battery units". Or alkaline AAs, for that matter.

      That tells you that there's something seriously wrong with the scalability of their production.

      It's a brand new model. What, do you want a 500k car-a-year factory to just magic itself into existence at full production? What sort of logic train led you to make a statement like that?

      500k cars a year, haven't even had the official full reveal yet (that's on Friday), none in dealerships, no test drives, not even the full options and options pricing announced yet - and they're booked solid until late 2018 at the best, probably early 2019. Meanwhile, Toyota piddles along on hybrids without pushing the tech envelope.

      If you want to know what the problem is, Tesla relies on selling ZEV credits to other automakers to keep from going bankrupt.

      If you want to know what the problem is, it's you going off about things that you don't know about. First off, ZEV credits sell for pennies on the dollar. The revenue from them is so small that Tesla doesn't even break it out on their budget sheet anymore. Secondly, Tesla's total sales revenue is in turn small compared to the investment that has gone into going from a luxury car maker to a mass-market midrange car maker. Again, you seem to have this notion that 500k car-a-year factories magic themselves into existence. They don't.

      Tesla has to be careful not to produce too many ZEVs lest they cause the price of ZEV credits to plummet due to oversupply.

      The reality is precisely the opposite. Tesla is undergoing an exponential scaleup, and has been throughout its entire existence.

      --
      So, apart from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
    7. Re:Yawn. by Rei · · Score: 1

      No, energy density is the key issue for electric vehicles

      Saying that doesn't make it true. What about the 100D's 335mi range do you think is too small to be mass-market? Is the 100D too heavy to be practical? Of course not; the Model S handling has been acclaimed. So why doesn't everyone buy one? Because they don't have six figures lying around for a car purchase.

      Getting the price down is the barrier. Tesla's sales are going up by an order of magnitude going from a ~$65k minimum price vehicle (Model S 75, formerly their cheapest model) to a ~$35k minimum price vehicle (Model 3). And a huge chunk of that is both battery price reductions combined with minimizing the amount of battery needed to go a given distance (drag coefficient reduction, reduced frontal area, etc); the battery pack will be something like 50kWh, half that of a 100D.

      Energy density improvements are "nice", but they're not the essential aspect. Tesla could double the range of their vehicles if they wanted to simply by stacking the battery pack higher. They don't because almost nobody would be able to afford it, and of those who could, almost none would see the price-to-benefit ratio to be worthwhile.

      One is that it's Toshiba who have a track record of delivering new battery tech such as SCiB

      On one hand you claim to be all about energy density, and then you come here and promote SCiB? It's a bloody titanate battery. Crazy expensive (always have been, always will be; the chemistry does not lend itself to cheap mass production) and their most advanced model is only 100Wh/kg. And you seem to be promoting it because of power density (charge / discharge rate), which is an entirely different thing from energy density, which you claimed to be all about. Power density is more important than energy density to BEVs, but not as important as price. Right now, BEV makers have huge numbers of customers who want EVs, who have no problem with Tesla Supercharger speeds (e.g. 30 minutes to 80% charged), but can't afford an EV. Only when that barrier is met do they need to get charge times down in order to continue to grow sales among people for whom 30 minute stops every 5-6 hours of road-trip driving is too much.

      I'm speculating here but it's possible the new Toshiba batteries will provide a fast-charge capability since they are supposedly solid-electrolyte

      Yes, you are speculating. There is nothing about a solid electrolyte that means that you can have faster charge rates. Often it's just the opposite.

      --
      So, apart from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
    8. Re:Yawn. by DrXym · · Score: 2
      Sadly they sat on their asses while the electric vehicle market coasted by. Hybrids are obsolete these days. At the very least they should be PHEVs.

      Lately Toyota (and Honda) have been trying to promote harebrained schemes like hydrogen fuel cell vehicles which nobody thinks as a viable or especially green way of propulsion.

    9. Re:Yawn. by DrXym · · Score: 1

      The Prius has been on sale for 20 years so culmulative sales aren't exactly instructive. I bet Prius sales are falling off a cliff of late because people inclined to buy a Prius have many better vehicles to choose from these days.

    10. Re:Yawn. by nojayuk · · Score: 1

      I mentioned battery density and weight as it was the major factor preventing the uptake of electric vehicles in the past, before lithium-ion was able to provide sufficient energy storage in a smaller weight (and volume) of batteries. I first got interested in EVs back in the 1970s when NiCd was about the best you could get for such applications and a 100km range was considered impressive. Back then increasing the Wh/kg figure was the target to aim for. Nowadays any new or improved battery tech for vehicles needs to match or exceed Li-ion's performance in that regard before all else.

      I mentioned SCiB because is is a "Biggest Breakthrough Since Breakfast" battery technology with useful capabilities that nothing else on the market matched and it's from Toshiba, the company headlining TFA that's supposedly productionising a solid-electrolyte Li-ion tech battery. SCiB shows they've got a creditable track record of getting stuff out of the lab and into the real world unlike most vapourware BBSB battery stories/PR pieces that appear on Slashdot and elsewhere.

      SCiB lithium-titanate is not really suitable in its current form for most vehicle applications due to its not-very-good Wh/kg performance (about half that of Li-ion) although there are some trials going on using SCiB batteries in larger vehicles such as buses where the Wh/kg numbers are less important as well as KE-recovery systems where its repeated rapid charge and discharge characteristics are beneficial. The big thing though is that SCiB is not a lab experiment, it's got funding and development and it can be bought off-the-shelf although it's very expensive (price on request, if you need to ask you can't afford it).

    11. Re: Yawn. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      This is an easily verifiable fact. Tesla relies on California's ZEV credits, and often complains that emissions controls should be stiffer so as to direct more gov credits to himself.

    12. Re: Yawn. by Rei · · Score: 1

      That's so skewed. The next quarter they made almost nothing from ZEV credits. Tesla's gross profit per vehicle is about 25% on the Model S, and expected to be similar on the Model 3, which are excellent numbers. Damning them for also selling ZEV credits is just stupid.

      --
      So, apart from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
    13. Re:Yawn. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >"Cost per kilowatt hour is the issue."

      Actually, it is cost per kilowatt hour - charge cycle. That is, the total number of kwh that can be delivered over the useful life of the battery.

    14. Re:Yawn. by yodleboy · · Score: 1

      Sweet jesus, you are a rabid Tesla fan aren't you? The Tesla way is the only way because Elon made it thus!

      The fact that Toyota is actually in production planning shows that this probably isn't some theoretical mumbo-jumbo, or something that requires perfect laboratory conditions to work. Very likely that Toyota has more or less stagnated with the Prius because they knew this new battery was coming.

    15. Re:Yawn. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Toyota has no BEVs, and the longest range PHEV that they have has a whopping 11 miles range

      You need to update your information. It's now 25 miles. Not that it's great, but it's still more than double your number.

    16. Re: Yawn. by Ost99 · · Score: 1

      The comulative battery capacity sold puts Tesla S ahead of Toyota Prius.

      4 million cars (in 20 years) with the majority having 0.8-1.3 kWh battery capacity (with a few phev at 4.4 kWh). 150 000 Tesla S with between 60 and 100 kWh capacity in each car puts them well ahead.

      --
      ---- Sig. gone.
    17. Re:Yawn. by HiThere · · Score: 1

      Depends on your use case. I need a car I can charge the battery of, and I can't get power to the curb. So for me a Prius would be a much better choice. Unfortunately, I also need a self-driving car...so it'll be a few years.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    18. Re:Yawn. by HiThere · · Score: 1

      Yes, you are speculating. There is nothing about a solid electrolyte that means that you can have faster charge rates. Often it's just the opposite.

      Perhaps that it correct, but it seems to me that a solid electrolyte battery might well be lighter (and tip resistant), so it might greatly facilitate a battery exchange approach. OTOH, that always bothers me, because unlike gas, which is nearly standardized, batteries degrade with repeated charges.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    19. Re: Yawn. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's so skewed. The next quarter they made almost nothing from ZEV credits. Tesla's gross profit per vehicle is about 25% on the Model S, and expected to be similar on the Model 3, which are excellent numbers. Damning them for also selling ZEV credits is just stupid.

      I'd take those Tesla claims with a somewhat jaundiced eye. They tend to play fast & loose with accounting terms.
      Even so, I doubt they'll manage 25% on a midrange car like the Model 3 and won't make any money on it for a couple years because of what they had to spend to get ready for its production.

    20. Re:Yawn. by haruchai · · Score: 1

      The Prius has been on sale for 20 years so culmulative sales aren't exactly instructive. I bet Prius sales are falling off a cliff of late because people inclined to buy a Prius have many better vehicles to choose from these days.

      Toyota's target sales for the 1st year of their Prius Prime are 20k for USA & 30k for Japan.
      Tesla's deliveries of the Model 3 could come close to the combined total before the end of 2017 and will almost certainly double it before the start of Q3 2018.

      An interesting fact regarding the Prius & the Model S is that almost 16% of Model S buyers up to Spring 2014 were Prius-only drivers, more than either BMW or Mercedes-Benz
      https://www.wired.com/2014/03/...

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
    21. Re:Yawn. by haruchai · · Score: 1

      "if the infrastructure is in place to provide the large amounts of power to deliver fast-charge"

      That's something that a lot of EV proponents overlook - how much power does it take to charge a battery as quickly as you can fill a gas tank - it's a LOT. A 5-min charge from empty to full for a Leaf's 24 kWh battery would be a steady 288 kW; to do the same for Tesla's largest pack, which is 100 kWh would need 1.2 MW!!
      You're out of your mind if you think there'll be tens or hundreds of thousands of 1-2 MW chargers deployed for public use.
      For a quick "fill-up" for huge numbers of EVs, it would be better to revisit battery swap strategies.

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
    22. Re:Yawn. by Rei · · Score: 1

      Supercharger V2, of which there are thousands deployed and thousands more in construction (with a minimum of two chargers per site), are 145kW. Without any problem to the grid. Supercharger V3 is going to be over 350kW (exact power has not been announced yet). In order to move to the higher capacity, V3 chargers will have a battery buffer, and thus stress the grid less than V2. That is to say, they'll trickle charge from the grid (and their solar awnings, which Tesla is looking to make standard), then surge charge EVs.

      Battery swap is a total non-starter for about fifty reasons that aren't worth reiterating yet again here. Every major corporate proponent has either given up on them or gone bankrupt. Including, by the way, Tesla, who was demonstrating their automated swapping system a couple years ago, but has since cancelled it. It's technologically possible, but grossly economically impractical (due to stockpiling requirements, made worse by the unavoidable necessity for widely varying battery profiles and performance characteristics, as well as the ever-changing technological baseline) and gets poor consumer acceptance in practice (as there's widespread opposition to giving up your good new battery pack for someone else's old degraded battery pack). There's also concerns about durability when you're replacing such a large structural element in the vehicle with HV connectors, although this issue comes in a distant third.

      --
      So, apart from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
    23. Re:Yawn. by q4Fry · · Score: 1

      You can get a PHEV Prius, but iirc its range is abysmal. Perhaps 30km?

  8. Re: Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Is this an elaborate ruse? I still can't decide.

  9. Is the tech ... by BenBoy · · Score: 0

    It's the battery tech ... Goodenough? Get it? Eh? Damn crickets, drowning out my applause.

  10. Biggest question completely ignored by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What is the charge time? Biggest problem with electric cars is the fact that it takes HOURS to recharge. Even Tesla's super-charger takes at least an hour to fully charge the small capacity batteries.

    While the tech is an improvement, without a 5 to 10 min to full charge, the EV are still a hard sale (ignoring current cost).

    Disclaimer: I drive a Chevy Volt 2017 ... so please spare me the usual BS accusation of being anti-EV.

    1. Re:Biggest question completely ignored by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Biggest problem is having like 2 chargers for every 1,000 or 10,000 cars.

      What would it cost to retrofit underground parking lots in an European town's center? They were built in the 70s or so, are on four or five stories, there are half a dozen of them or more. They're used in part for residential parking (the subscription is somewhere below $100/month, if you reside in the area)

      How would it cost to bring electricity to 10% of parking spaces? say, add a megawatt or two of power line capacity for the parking, buy and install 50 to 60 chargers on 400V triple phase, maintain/operate them. How would the parking prices increase?, for short term like an hour, or for monthly "rent".

      How much will adding megawatts of power transmission ability in "historical" center cost? Should you plan for 10 megawatts of capacity for the parking (because unburying/burying pipes and cables is expensive), though you'll only exploit 2 megawatts of that capacity at first?
      Do you need sprinklers above each electric parking space (I don't know)

      I don't have an estimate for the cost of such operation (or if say, a third of parking spaces are electrified) but I'll suppose it's somewhat expensive (ha).
      Hopefully you can get a rebate by doing vehicle-to-grid but I suppose that falls short.

    2. Re:Biggest question completely ignored by Rei · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Even Tesla's super-charger takes at least an hour to fully charge the small capacity batteries.

      1) Tesla's batteries are "small capacity"? 4-5 hours highway driving time per charge is "small capacity"?

      2) Actually, it takes 125 minutes to fully charge a Tesla pack. But it takes only 30 minutes to charge one to 80%. There's a taper over the course of a charge, so the higher you want the percentage, the slower it gets.**

      3) Supercharger V2 is 120kW per vehicle / 145kW shared, but the upcoming V3 is going to be "over 350kW". That could potentially up the speed in the first ~50% or so of a charge, although more dramatic improvements will also require battery pack improvements.

      ** - Basically, early in the charge, almost all of the energy you pump in becomes stored as fast as you can get, with only a tiny fraction converted to heat. As cells begin to fill up (unevenly), however, the incoming power is increasingly turned into heat. The charge rate must consequently be reduced to avoid excessive cell heat during charging, which is one of the biggest contributors to reducing cell lifespans.

      --
      So, apart from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
    3. Re:Biggest question completely ignored by Rei · · Score: 1

      Biggest problem is having like 2 chargers for every 1,000 or 10,000 cars.

      What are you talking about? Tesla's supercharger map alone has 909 supercharger stations with 6118 superchargers, over half of which are operational. That's one supercharger per 60 cars sold, not "2 chargers for every 1000 or 10000 cars". And given that EVs spend the vast majority of their time charging at home, that's actually a huge ratio of chargers to cars.

      As for costs: supercharger stations cost roughly the same to build as gas stations. They cycle vehicles much more slowly through, but their profit margins are much higher, as their operating costs are much smaller. They buy power at industrial rates (say, 6 cents per kWh) and sell it for $0.20/kWh or so and require no overhead for arranging deliveries or the like.

      Your comment about 400V three-phase power makes little sense. If you're talking AC then you're talking onboard chargers, which don't use three-phase, are not 400V, and are limited in capacity. Are you meaning to talk about AC charging or DC?

      Are you even talking about fast charging or slow? Adding slow chargers is an easy "loss leader" for businesses, in that the power costs so little, you earn goodwill, and if anyone actually wants to draw a meaningful amount of power then they're going to be spending long periods of time at your store. Charging can be as simple as an outdoor 120V (US) / 220V (Europe) outlet, although you'd usually prefer something like a J1772 connector.

      EVs spontaneously bursting into flames is not exactly a common occurrence. EV fires have occurred during charging, but it's been very rare, and is a sign of manufacturing defects, generally in the charger (not the battery pack). Most EV fires have been in severe car accidents; however, the rate per mile seems to be significantly lower than gasoline car fires.

      As for the amount of power needed, that depends on whether you're talking unbuffered chargers or battery-buffered chargers, and what rate charging you're discussing. Unbuffered chargers require lines with a high peak capacity, but rarely make use of that full capacity. They're cheaper to buy, but mean you pay for higher rates for having the connection. Buffered chargers are more expensive to buy, but can be installed on any line so long as the average draw can be provided for by the line. E.g. if you put a buffered supercharger out in the middle of Canyonlands and it was visited by only one EV per week (needing say 50kWh of power), you could power it for decades on end with nothing more than 7 square meters of solar panels costing $2k and making a couple hundred watts of power. Now, even an unbuffered supercharger will cost you in the upper 5 figures, so it's probably not worth it to stick a supercharger out in the middle of Canyonlands, but just saying... ;) For infrequently visited sites, having a solar awning over the charger can provide most to all of the power.

      (The lower the peak power, the cheaper a charger is - and AC chargers are cheaper than DC, but limited to whatever the EV's onboard charger can handle. Little AC chargers directly wired into the wall and delivering 5-20kW generally cost only $500 or so, plus installation costs)

      --
      So, apart from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
    4. Re:Biggest question completely ignored by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Tesla's supercharger map alone has 909 supercharger stations with 6118 superchargers, over half of which are operational. That's one supercharger per 60 cars sold

      Meanwhile, my city, with a population of over a million people and a median income that's on the reasonable side, has one supercharger station. Basically, that statistic amounts to jack shit.

  11. The same Toyota that discontinued EV Rav4? by Shompol · · Score: 1

    After they spent millions and partnered with Tesla to develop an electric RAV-4 they discontinued it even though it meant paying a penalty in California. My bet is that some exec got himself a private island in the Caribbean, courtesy of your neighborhood oil cartel. I do not expect any innovation from Toyota in the EV department, other than to encumber the technology with patents.

    1. Re: The same Toyota that discontinued EV Rav4? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why would an oil cartel care whether Toyota makes a small number of niche model cars?

    2. Re: The same Toyota that discontinued EV Rav4? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because it isn't about a small number of niche model cars.
      Sure, for the next 20 years it doesn't matter, but in the long run it is a problem.
      The oil cartel knows that every EV that doesn't roll out now makes car companies less eager to invest heavily in development of new ones.
      It is a stalling game. While the oil will run out sooner or later they don't want the market to move on until they have sold all oil they have.

    3. Re:The same Toyota that discontinued EV Rav4? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which is worse for the oil cartel: saving 50% of fuel consumption in a fleet of 10 million cars or 100% in a fleet of 100 thousands cars?

  12. I cannot get used to these numbers... by OpenSourced · · Score: 2

    as early as 2020.

    I don't get used to those kind of years being "early". They always seem far in the distant future.

    --
    Rome taught me patience and assiduous application to detail. Virtues which temper the boldness of great, general views.
  13. Crap "analysis" by sjbe · · Score: 5, Interesting

    In terms of number of battery units produced, Tesla and GM are roundoff error compared to Toyota.

    Several issues with your "analysis". 1) The Tesla Model S is a $70-100K car so not exactly and apples to apples comparison 2) The cars you are comparing have been on the market for 6 years or less versus 20 years for the Prius. Of course cumulative sales will be bigger for the Prius. Do you know how many Prius were sold in the first 5 years on the market worldwide? 81,700. That means that both the Volt and the Model S outsold the Prius over the first several years of their availability. 3) The Bolt has been on the market for a year. Are you seriously going to compare cumulative sales of a vehicle that has been on the market for a year to one that has been on the market for 20?

    That tells you that there's something seriously wrong with the scalability of their production.

    Not even remotely. I design manufacturing production systems for a living. Tesla scaling production to deliver cars more quickly would be a substantial cost with no obvious benefit to Tesla either short or long term. The reason they haven't done it isn't that they cannot do it but because they have chosen not to do it. As long as customers are willing to wait for delivery it would be enormously stupid of Tesla to devote that much capital to upgrading assembly lines and supply chains. There is no evidence to suggest that faster production would result in enough marginal extra sales to be worth the expense. They need to produce cars fast enough to keep their customers happy but any faster is wasting money. So far Tesla customers clearly are ok with waiting a bit.

    (If you want to know what the problem is, Tesla relies on selling ZEV credits to other automakers to keep from going bankrupt. But other automakers only need a certain number of ZEV credits each year to comply with CARB regulations. So Tesla has to be careful not to produce too many ZEVs lest they cause the price of ZEV credits to plummet due to oversupply.

    Wrong again. Tesla is not throttling production for that reason and they certainly aren't calibrating it to demand for emissions credits. That would not be a sustainable business model and Elon Musk certainly knows that. The reason Tesla isn't profitable and why they produce at the rate they do is much simpler. They simply lack the economies of scale enjoyed by major auto firms. That fact alone is why you haven't seen a major new car company in decades. It's hard to achieve minimum efficient scale in the auto industry, particularly with a wildly non-traditional product offering. They have to reinvest all their capital (and then some) into building the company. Production lines to make cars are enormously expensive. Companies like Ford and GM and Toyota have had years to develop the scale and balance sheets necessary to bankroll such investments. Tesla is still a small young company with a weak balance sheet and it will take time to get to where the major auto makers are now.

    Pretty much all small companies have the same problem including mine. My company makes auto parts and we could easily bring in enough people and machines to deliver products to our customers in a few days. But the expense would be enormous and we would immediately become uncompetitive on price. We also could produce products ahead of time and inventory them but that means we tie up vast amounts of capital in inventory and storage. Producing products faster than your customers demand them is wasteful, expensive, and stupid.

  14. Headed towards non-toy status for EV's by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is great news! We are headed towards non-toy status for EV's! Extended range will make them feasible for real world commuting.

    I want one.

    1. Re:Headed towards non-toy status for EV's by Rei · · Score: 1

      How long is your commute that today's EVs couldn't handle it? Tesla range calculator (scroll down 3/4ths of the way). Model 3 range should be only slightly less than the S 75.

      --
      So, apart from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
  15. Terminology Issue by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The use of the term "solid state" here bothers me.

    I've always understood "solid state" to mean "no moving parts". By that definition all batteries are solid state! And no, the presence of a liquid electrolyte does not count as a moving part. Nothing about the liquid is required to move or designed to move.

    This could be resolved by simply removing the word "state". These are "solid batteries", not "solid state batteries". Much clearer, IMO.

  16. Re: Oh, so the finally rewrote the laws of physics by gumbi+west · · Score: 1
  17. Graphene Super-Caps by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The answer is graphene super capacitors. This technology is coming very quickly. Being able to charge your car in 30s; not replacing your entire battery set for 1/2 the cost of a new car every five years; and not having to worry about freezing/cooking your batteries is a game changer. Until then, its just that same old shit.