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Researchers Claim They Can Predict Where Lightning Is Likely To Strike (www.cbc.ca)

Posted by whipslash on from the making-the-lightning-rounds dept.

A study by researchers at the University of Calgary's Schulich School of Engineering suggests it's possible to predict where lightning will strike and how often.They say satellite data and artificial intelligence can help foresee where lightning poses a greater risk to spark wildfires... "Those events don't just randomly happen," said Dr. Xin Wang, one of three researchers involved in the study. "They also have spatial and temporal patterns." One of the paper's authors says their analysis can predict areas with a high chance of wildfires with an accuracy greater than 90%.

37 comments

  1. Nonsense. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Well then, give us the location of the next 20 lightening strikes, Mr. "Engineer".

    1. Re:Nonsense. by hey! · · Score: 1

      No problem, as long as I get to choose the precision with which I specify the location.

      -- Mr. Engineer

      p.s. -- "the Earth"

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      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    2. Re:Nonsense. by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1
      I see your Earth and raise you Jupiter:

      Jupiter has powerful storms, often accompanied by lightning strikes. The storms are a result of moist convection in the atmosphere connected to the evaporation and condensation of water. They are sites of strong upward motion of the air, which leads to the formation of bright and dense clouds. The storms form mainly in belt regions. The lightning strikes on Jupiter are hundreds of times more powerful than those seen on Earth, and are assumed to be associated with the water clouds.

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  2. That's easy... by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

    When God looks down and sees that the men with the little dimply white balls are still out in the open playing that stupid game, He sends more strikes. But they keep doing it, day after day.

    1. Re:That's easy... by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 1, Funny

      When God looks down and sees that the men with the little dimply white balls are still out in the open playing that stupid game, He sends more strikes. But they keep doing it, day after day.

      Too bad the Secret Service won't let people play golf in the rain.

      95 days and counting...

      --
      It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
    2. Re:That's easy... by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      AFAIK that only counts the days actively golfing. Not the number of days Trump spends on a golf course (for example, in the clubhouse.) Also note, the white house is saying that Trump goes to a golf course without confirming he actually played golf there. I don't know if those count either.

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    3. Re:That's easy... by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 1

      AFAIK that only counts the days actively golfing. Not the number of days Trump spends on a golf course ...

      Yup. But ~100 times of just actual Golf in one year still pretty telling for a guy who lambasted Obama for playing golf -- reportedly about 330 times over eight years -- and also said, "“I'll be too busy to play golf ..."

      --
      It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
    4. Re:That's easy... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Har Har Har Har!
      Lucky, that god is bad in aiming :)

      --
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    5. Re:That's easy... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which god? Zeus?

  3. Wildfire analysis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    IF WEATHER=DRY AND FLAMMABLEMATERIALS>X THEN CHANCEOFFIRE=HIGH

    caps filter not happy with me

    1. Re:Wildfire analysis by ELCouz · · Score: 1

      Not sure if joking but is it how they rate the fire danger level?

  4. Sure by nospam007 · · Score: 1

    I can do that too. In Paris on the Champs de Mars I predicted dozens of times that it would hit the Eiffel Tower and I was always right.

    1. Re:Sure by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

      If you put an iPhone 8 on the Eiffel Tower, will it charge wirelessly?

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    2. Re:Sure by mikael · · Score: 1

      It works with mountains as well. Used to worked in a city surrounded by mountains and high hills. Any time there were thunderstorms, lightning flashes seem to take a particular liking to one mountain peak. Maybe it was more metallic and/or simply had sharper terrain.

      I'd guess that you could combine geological data (for metallic nature) with radar data (to get fractal spikiness and height), then determine if there was any correlation.

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  5. NOV 12 1955 10:04 pm by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 4, Funny

    NOV 12 1955 10:04 pm

  6. Correlation is not causation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    We train AIs with spurious correlations and trust their verdict. The future is going to be governed by superstitious computers.

  7. been done before by tobiah · · Score: 1

    My uncle Richard Fernsler came up with a method, late 1970s I recall, for identifying where lightning will strike, which helped launch his career as an exotic weapon developer for the Navy. His publications only hint at what actually gets built (functioning yet buggy unpredictable prototypes).
    https://journals.ametsoc.org/d...

    --
    "The ability to delude yourself may be an important survival tool" - Jane Wagner -
    1. Re:been done before by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Was he the one who got the Stargate working? Oh wait, that was the Airforce.

  8. Not New by JimSadler · · Score: 1

    In the 1970's there was such a device put in use and it worked. perhaps this new device works better or something but the older one did save lives. The device was used in places like power plants where steel is 99% of a tall structure and would allow workers to take shelter before the strike occurred. I knew the electrical technician who helped create the device.

  9. If so, then time for cheap energy. by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    Seriously, if we can predict close to a spot, then should be able to attract it with a lightening rod and capture the electricity.

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    1. Re:If so, then time for cheap energy. by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Seriously, if we can predict close to a spot, then should be able to attract it with a lightening rod and capture the electricity.

      How will a pole that makes things weigh less help us capture electricity?

      We already know how to attract lightning to a lightning rod. You can do it by ionizing a path in the atmosphere for the lightning to follow using a laser. But we don't have any way to make use of that much energy at once, yet.

      Maybe if we invent shipstones, we can harness lightning. Or build a supercapacitor the size of a small state?

      --
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    2. Re: If so, then time for cheap energy. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Lighting rods work to a point. Power lines are a lot better. Even buried.

      Lived in Florida for many years one if not the lighting capital of the world. Telephone companies and us military test there all the time. They even get lighting to strike over and over the same spot. Rockets and thin wires help a lot. But the did find that lighting hit buried powered lines all the time. You can see it by the fused sand/glass that the lighting traveled through the ground.

      Also most playgrounds had static sensors so if the area is likely to be hit. The lights and horns go off so you can get inside.

    3. Re: If so, then time for cheap energy. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lighting = illuminating
      Lightening = becoming or making less heavy
      Lightning = followed by thunder

    4. Re:If so, then time for cheap energy. by hjf · · Score: 1

      Just leave it to Ol' Musky and he will build one.

  10. I can do that too by gurps_npc · · Score: 1

    Lighting will strike the tall metal structure. It will do so during the next rainstorm.

    --
    excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
    1. Re:I can do that too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Only if someone plugs the extension cord into the lighting rig. Lightning on the other hand works without wires.

  11. Doesn't strike the same place twice ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Lightning doesn't strikes the same place twice, because that place isn't there any more after the first time.

    1. Re:Doesn't strike the same place twice ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If only the lightning had struck your extra 's' and it wasn't there any more, you wouldn't look so foolish.

  12. Large Metal Pointy Thing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I've been able to do it for years, in urban environments. Pick the tallest, pointiest metal structure in the immediate area.

  13. Easy by hcs_$reboot · · Score: 2

    Since lightning never strikes the same place twice, through a process of elimination and thanks to a lot of statistical data one determines where lightning will not strike, thus find out where it is likely to strike next. In a few years from now, lightning will run out of places, and just stop.

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    1. Re:Easy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think you're onto something. But how big is a place? Is space quantized? These are deep mysteries.

      I think an easier approach is to note the correlation between winds that cause static buildup and the condensing of water into microscopic water droplets. I predict lighting is likely to strike near thunderclouds.

      You read it here first people.

  14. Where lightning WILL strike by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Science has a long history of trying to predict the probabilities and likelihoods of where lightning will strike, but the answer as to where lightning actually WILL strike is the same as the answer to question of where a Siberian tiger sleeps at night: anywhere it bloody well wants!

  15. What If: Lightning by JD-1027 · · Score: 1

    What If: Lightning https://what-if.xkcd.com/16