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AI Predicts Your Lifespan Using Activity Tracking Apps (engadget.com)

Russian scientists have crafted an AI-based algorithm that uses the activity tracking from smartphones and smartwatches to estimate your lifespan with far greater precision than past models. Engadget reports: The team used a convolutional neural network to find the "biologically relevant" motion patterns in a large set of U.S. health survey data and correlate that to both lifespans and overall health. It would look for not just step counts, but how often you switch between active and inactive periods -- many of the other factors in your life, such as your sleeping habits and gym visits, are reflected in those switches. After that, it was just a matter of applying the understanding to a week's worth of data from test subjects' phones. You can even try it yourself through Gero Lifespan, an iPhone app that uses data from Apple Health, Fitbit and Rescuetime (a PC productivity measurement app) to predict your longevity.

48 comments

  1. Dalek: by Tablizer · · Score: 2

    "I predict you will live for 4 more seconds. EXTERMINATE!"

    1. Re:Dalek: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Naw. For fixed income, knowing exactly how much time you have left is awesome! This means you can spend money at a predicted rate until you die, which allows you to get maximum happiness out of the funds without left-overs. (Which they'll fight over anyways.) For instance, if you have $100,000 in savings and you have 10 years left to live, you'd know that you can't spend more than $10,000 per year.

      In fact, this answer is so important to some people, having it be an insured answer may even be REALLY beneficial. (But... then would the insurance company have an incentive to kill you instead of paying out?)

    2. Re:Dalek: by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 1

      "I predict you will live for 4 more seconds. EXTERMINATE!"

      The Russian smartwatch is extremely accurate at predicting the time of death.

      When it counts down to zero, it releases the nerve gas in the watch.

      --
      Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
    3. Re:Dalek: by nospam007 · · Score: 2

      "For instance, if you have $100,000 in savings and you have 10 years left to live, you'd know that you can't spend more than $10,000 per year."

      And reduce your gym time, so not to live longer than your money.

    4. Re: Dalek: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You're obviously not a programmer

  2. Obligatory... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Farnsworth: Behold! The death clock. Simply jam your finger in the hole and this read-out tells you exactly how long you have left to live.
    Leela: Does it really work?
    Farnsworth: Well it's occasionally off by a few seconds. What with free will and all.
    Fry: Sounds like fun. How long do I have left to live?
    -Fry puts his finger in the hole and the clock dings-
    Bender: Ooh! Dibs on his CD player!

  3. More accurately? ... by Ayano · · Score: 2

    So you're telling me that people's lifespan were measured accurately? That assumes they they died as predicted within the test phase.

    Given it's Russia they'd need a vodka sensor for that

    --
    I don't read AC
    1. Re:More accurately? ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or perhaps they were killed to calibrate the algorithm.

  4. A shady no-name Russian app wants to track you, wh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In addition to literally tracking your movements, it wants access to Facebook and offers to connect to Instagram too. ðY

  5. AI buzzword of 2018-2019 by Mr307 · · Score: 1

    AI didn't predict anything, a simple database analysis did.

    1. Re:AI buzzword of 2018-2019 by geek · · Score: 2

      There is no such thing as AI FFS. God I wish this fucking dumbass trend of calling everything fucking AI would die in a fire. IT HASN'T BEEN INVENTED YET

    2. Re:AI buzzword of 2018-2019 by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Of course we have AIs, however the trend to call everything an AI is indeed quite annoying.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    3. Re:AI buzzword of 2018-2019 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We ought to call them AD's for now, artificial dumbasses.

  6. Key features by pushing-robot · · Score: 2

    Smartphone algorithm achieve very great accuracy for lifespan by complete examination of Russian user lifestyle:

    • Diet
    • Exercise
    • Litres of vodka per day
    • Words used to describe President
    --
    How can I believe you when you tell me what I don't want to hear?
  7. "Give us more data about you" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You can trust us!

  8. Bad Data by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The data isn't good enough. Pattern matching a tiny, tiny segment of your life to the averages of a population results in a near meaningless metric. The data is also highly skewed. How many 80 year olds do you know who were providing movement data when they were 30? None of the 30 years old who provided data have reached 80 yet. The data will miss any generational issues and there are definitely changes between generations. What percentage of the population has moved from physical labor into office style jobs? What about all the anti-depressants and birth control drugs now in the water system? What about the changing fluoride levels? Etc...

  9. Please stop calling everything AI? by mapkinase · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Could you? A calculator is not AI.

    --
    I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
    1. Re:Please stop calling everything AI? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Remember a few years ago when everything was a 3D printer? Now an actuarial table is "AI".

  10. LIFE EXPECTANCY! (and then haha!) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Not life span. Life span is 120. Expected? At birth. Russia is 57. US is 76M/81F. Norway is more. Japan more still. Canada is much less.

    But this is stupid anyway, as is any {quote}AI{quote} prediction. I refer you to

    https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS...

  11. Simple calcultor by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Lifespan calculator:
    Write down how long your parents lived.
    That's about how long you'll live unless you're much fatter than they were.
    Add or subtract a few years if either of you smoked cigarettes but the other didn't.

    1. Re:Simple calcultor by Incadenza · · Score: 2
  12. "AI" this and "AI" that... by QuietLagoon · · Score: 1

    Really? "AI" is little more than humans programming it. Stop blaming odd behavior on "AI." Blame it on the humans that have launched this AI disaster upon the planet.

    1. Re:"AI" this and "AI" that... by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      What AI disaster? Did I miss it while I snoozed this afternoon?

      --
      Waterfox - a Firefox fork with legacy extension support, security updates and better privacy by default.
  13. Profit Model by quantaman · · Score: 3, Funny

    Congratulations! You have a predicted lifespan of 50 more years!

    Establishing connection to driverless car... SUCCESS

    Your remaining predicted lifespan is now 10 seconds....

    Do you wish to extend your lifespan by upgrading to the paid version for $5000? y/n

    --
    I stole this Sig
    1. Re:Profit Model by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      Better than the Japanese one which just says

      omae ha mou shindeiru

      And then your head explodes

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    2. Re:Profit Model by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Congratulations! You have a predicted lifespan of 50 more years!

      Establishing connection to driverless car... SUCCESS

      Your remaining predicted lifespan is now 10 seconds....

      Do you wish to extend your lifespan by upgrading to the paid version for $5000? y/n

      Meh, the algorithm says I am already dead!

    3. Re:Profit Model by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      Sardonically funny. Sadly funny. Too soon..

  14. Re:A shady no-name Russian app wants to track you, by Bing+Tsher+E · · Score: 1

    It also has hooks to be plugged into your health insurance company.

    Who have now mandated that you wear these sensors....

  15. Diet by manu0601 · · Score: 1

    How does this algorithm tracks diet? It seems difficult to predict lifespan without knowing that.

  16. Does not matter by bussdriver · · Score: 1

    More insurance companies and middlemen are going to find more ways to screw you over using information you never cared about or never thought would reach their twisted minds. AI or not or just some AI -- doesn't matter because this stuff is making people think about doing things that probably were already thought about but abandoned as impractical in the past.

    Facebook and these other companies can keep your DATA private but they can profile and deduce their own information from your DATA and sell that information they created and own without literally disclosing your DATA. Derivative data is the real threat and we are over a decade behind just on simple data privacy today.

  17. Re:LIFE EXPECTANCY - Canada by BrianMarshall · · Score: 1

    Life Expectancy at Birth 2015/1016 data
    Canada - Female 84 Male 80
    US - Female 82 Male 77

    --
    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro" -- HST
  18. Re:LIFE EXPECTANCY - Canada by BrianMarshall · · Score: 1
    --
    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro" -- HST
  19. Re:LIFE EXPECTANCY - Canada by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Those are CDN years.

  20. Just approve this app from Russia on your phone by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I wonder what else the app is going to grab, along with your full health data, when it's packaged up and sent home to Russia to have a bit of database crunching done?

  21. Misspellt Al by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Move on folks, nothing to see here. It's just a misunderstanding.. The uppercase i in AI should have been a lowercase L, making it Al (as in algorithm).

  22. Okay, sure, but we all know by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 1
    --
    #DeleteChrome
  23. Not all deaths related to health as such by Kjella · · Score: 2

    Here's roughly the breakdown in Norway, of 100k people:
    Age 0-1 you have 0.63% die, most due to birth defects
    Age 1-40 you have just 1% die, mostly drugs, suicide and massive trauma
    Age 41-67 you have another 8.3% die, mostly lifestyle diseases

    So 90% will make it to retirement age. From there it's quickly downhill, at 75 it's 80% and 95 only 10% remain. So for practical life planning you can expect to grow old (>75) but not very old (<95), of course if you got a family you should have insurance if you die in a car crash or suffer a massive heart attack but that's not a fate you plan for. I doubt there's any app that can give you a more meaningful practical answer even if they could tweak a few percentages correctly.

    In fact I think they got it creepily well planned out, in the last year my life expectancy decreased by 0.97 years. Basically it's almost like an alarm clock counting down, okay you don't know exactly when the end comes but I'm young enough that my death is essentially one year closer per year. It's just the cycle of life I suppose, but it's not like that makes it any better.

    --
    Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  24. Screw this. by AndyKron · · Score: 1

    Can AI shorten your lifespan too because I'm pretty much done here.

  25. Re: Donald Trump's lifespan will be measured in pr by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Shareblue scumbags sure are lazy trolls.

  26. Time left by eugend · · Score: 1

    AI: Time left: 5 ... Me: Years??? AI: 4 ... 3... 2...

  27. Re:A shady no-name Russian app wants to track you, by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In addition to literally tracking your movements, it wants access to Facebook and offers to connect to Instagram too. ðY

    This is Russia we are talking about, and the fact is the best way to predict the future is to create it. The only other way is fake it until you make it Ivan Browning style.. you know paint a target around random bullet holes in the barn and then claim you hit the bulls eye that many times in a row! Either way you are good at lying.

    We all knew Putin was going to be re-elected, because he created that reality.

    i predict I will live to be at least 90. Try and stop me! You will fail, why? Because I say you are not going to mess with my shit asshat! See how that works? Good! Not such a magic trick now is it?

  28. Activity tracker? Or phone motion tracker? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    At work, my cell phone sits on my desk all day while I go around doing my job (which involves quite a bit of walking around all day). That's because it's too big to fit in my pocket comfortably, and I don't really need it for my job.
    At home, it sits on a table while I go around doing house chores, yardwork etc. for the same reason.
    All activity it would detect is when I carry it from the table to the car and back, and from the parking lot at work to the desk and back. So any "activity tracker" would think I just sit around 14+ hours a day.

  29. Sigh. Millennials. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    People have been utilizing computers to try to predict this sort of thing, and inaccurately, for a long while. There is nothing new in this announcement, not a thing. It isn't 'predicting' anything. A person with half the data but lots of knowledge about an individual could easily do the same thing (burgers, sedentary life, drugs and booze, wrecklessness = death). Accept it: these are smart algorithms, not OMG AI, and their usefulness is pretty limited. If I were a you g engineer, I'd get into either the web or robotics, because this a joke, and without stolen data, which may very well become impossible to obtain, it can't even function in its current limited capacity.

    At some point millennials are going to have to grow up and accept that life is filled with uncertainty and find the spine to be up for the challenge, as there has never been a magic formula and never will be. In some things you truly are on your own, might as well get busy spine hunting as soon as possible.

  30. APP SAYS: Oh no, your lifespan is only xx years! by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

    ..unless you purchase XYZ product (which we've thoughtfully selected for you, based on all the personally identifiable information you've so graciously provided us with) in which case you'll live up to* 50 more years!


    * Not to be used for medical diagnosis purposes. For entertainment only. Your mileage may vary. Illegal in some states. You won't read this anyway. BUY OUR STUFF!!!1!

  31. I dies ren years ago by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    According to this app!