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Earth's 'Bigger, Older Cousin' Maybe Doesn't Even Exist (npr.org)

Ever since astronomers started to detect planets beyond our solar system, they've been trying to find another world just like Earth. And few years ago, they announced that they'd found a planet that was the closest match yet -- Kepler-452b. Trouble is, some astronomers now say it's not possible to know for sure that this planet actually exists. From a report: "There's new information that we can now quantify which tells us something that we didn't know before," says Fergal Mullally, who used to be an astronomer on the science team for NASA's Kepler Space Telescope. In 2015, NASA declared that Kepler-452b was the first near-Earth-sized planet orbiting in the "habitable" zone around a star very similar to our sun. The space agency called it Earth's "bigger, older cousin," and scientists were so enthusiastic that one began quoting poetry at a news conference. The original science wasn't shoddy, Mullally says. It's just that, since then, researchers have learned more about the telescope's imperfections.

52 comments

  1. Makes sense by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Troll

    I too would wanna disappear if I found out the Earth is my cousin.

  2. Re:What else is big and old by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Funny

    I Fergaled your mom once. It was a gawdawful mess. Never again.

  3. Re: What else is big and old by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Funny

    dad?

  4. Explanation for dimming: by Gravis+Zero · · Score: 1

    The inhabitants of Kepler-452a all turn their washing machines on at the same time and thus the lights dimmed. This is the dangers of solar power that nobody warns you about! ;)

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  5. There is no Planet B by theCat · · Score: 2

    All this excitement, I know what you're thinking, and you apes need to start taking better care of what is likely the only planet in the entire universe capable of supporting life.

    Ref; Fermi's Paradox.

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    1. Re:There is no Planet B by HiThere · · Score: 2

      Well, that's one explanation of Fermi's Paradox. But I think the more likely ones are that star travel is inherently immensely dangerous, or that technological civilizations tend to destroy themselves.

      You explanation is actually the more hopeful one, but unless a double planet (i.e. a moon based tidal system) is necessary to life, it seems a rather unlikely one.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    2. Re:There is no Planet B by theCat · · Score: 1

      Parsimony probably wins this one; positing that "space travel is dangerous" requires 1) life on other worlds, that 2) advance to the point of recognizing "space" and then 3) develop machines of a complexity to fly in any manner at all, and then 4) decide that "space flight" sounds cool, and that they 5) find a way to do that, while not 6) at the same time wrecking themselves with some other marvelous machine they made, such that 7) they reach space and venture anywhere beyond low orbit, enough to 8) be murdered by space with enough frequency and reliability to 9) decide to just not go there at all ever again.

      There is a much higher probability and superior simplicity assuming that 1) apart from the Earth there is no planet-sized object in the universe capable of supporting life. Period.

      That nobody ever thinks this way is given. That the universe gives no shits at all what anyone thinks is also given.

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    3. Re: There is no Planet B by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well the universe is infinite or so they say but how the fuck do they know

    4. Re:There is no Planet B by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >There is a much higher probability and superior simplicity assuming that 1) apart from the Earth there is no planet-sized object in the universe capable of supporting life. Period.

      Conversely, we know that the axiom of uniformity appears to apply for known physics in the universe, and we appeared under the model. Therefore, one can easily determine that give uniformity, there are other earths and evolved life. If you assume the Earth is the only one in the vast universe, it would require special exception where we have no evidence of such special exception. It is therefore the most simple to assume that the universe is uniform, and we are part of that uniform fabric, and other life is everywhere.

    5. Re: There is no Planet B by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The spatial and temporal properties of the universe are linked together by its "curvature". So knowing it's historical expansion rate actually tells us something about it's size. Unfortunately, current measurements are not precise enough to elimit any options, so it might be infinite or it might be just fucking large, we don't know yet.

    6. Re: There is no Planet B by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      Well the universe is infinite or so they say but how the fuck do they know

      Actually science indicates the universe is not infinite, but is finite in both time and direction.

      How do we know? Look up at the sky during the night. See how it isn't blinding you with its brightness? That is how we know.

      If the universe was infinite in space, every possible point you could look at in the sky would intersect a star shining light at us.
      If the universe was infinite in time, the light from all of those stars would have had infinite time to reach us, and would have by now.

      If the universe was infinite in time and space, the night sky couldn't possibly be dark, it would be blinding, and would be all of the time.
      You wouldn't even be able to see the fact our Sun is there, as it would be equally bright as any other point in the sky.

      This is observationally not true. Thus, the universe can't be infinite in time.

      So why can't the universe be infinite in just space/direction and finite in time?

      To be finite in time means the universe had a starting time and will have an ending time.
      We observe other stars moving away from us in all directions as time moves forward.
      This logically can only mean as you go back in time those stars were closer.

      The only way the universe can both be infinite in size and also have a starting time, would be for the universe to have simply appeared existing as it is at that start time.
      This means the universe wouldn't be changing, it wouldn't have objects in it moving all away from us (or all towards us either for that matter)

      Light travels at a fixed speed, and requires time to do that traveling. The fact light from a source can reach us today where it wasn't reaching us before is more evidence the universe isn't infinite in time.
      The fact we can also see light from very distant objects from us today that are moving away from us, and then "disappear" as the object moves to a point that the light coming from it hasn't (and likely never will) have time to reach us, is evidence the universe isn't infinite in space either.

      It can't be infinite in both time and space, and it can't be infinite in time but finite in space, and it can't be finite in time and infinite in space.
      Process of elimination leaves the one option left: It can only be both finite in time and finite in space.

      So that's how they know. An infinite universe couldn't possibly in any way look anything resembling how our universe actually looks.

    7. Re: There is no Planet B by John+Da'+Baddest · · Score: 2

      Not strictly true, if cosmic inflation happens / heppened at a speed great than light - a popular hypothesis these days. Then the reason why the night sky isn't saturated with light is, most of the bright points are too far away to reach us, or are inflating away from us faster than their legs of light can run.

    8. Re:There is no Planet B by HiThere · · Score: 1

      No. Positing that interstellar travel is inherently dangerous doesn't require assuming that anyone ever tried it. So that argument's invalid.

      And postulating that technological civilizations tend to destroy themselves it an independent variable also. We only have one example, it's a bit of a ways from even it's first interstellar flight, and we've already come within 30 seconds of all out nuclear war. This is not to exclude the various other dangers that we've been doing a drunkards walk around. If you guess that we've been unreasonably lucky so far, as it appears, and that we're a normal technological civilization, then it's quite likely that technological civilizations tend to destroy themselves. It's also quite likely that this won't be true for all of them. Check out the optimistic assumptions in the Drake equation that *don't* involve natural disasters. And then consider the variables they don't consider. E.g.:
      1) It's harder to leave worlds that are heavier than Earth, but lighter worlds tend to lose their atmosphere.
      2) Many evolved species have limitations on the environment that they can survive in. Humans are quite unusual in being able to survive in a broad range of environments. (Even so, we'll probably neeed to provide artificial gravity [spinning] in space ships for long duration trips.) So it's quite likely that this would impose limits on who can physically get into space. Or how difficult it is. If you need to immerse yourself in water for a large part of the day, the ships would be a lot heavier.
      3) There's no economic advantage to anyone who stays behind in sending ships out. But there's a big investment.
      4) Artificial habitats require a social system that would be reliably stable in a multi-generation setting. We haven't solved that problem yet, but I expect that virtual reality will put a big dent in it.
      5) Etc.

      Life being out there doesn't mean we have a reasonable chance of detecting it. Therefore, not detecting it doesn't imply it's not out there.

      OTOH, there is a reasonable change that a strong moon based tidal system is necessary for life to develop. I'm not convinced of this, but I sure wouldn't deny the possibility. And those can be expected to be rare (unless worlds circling gas giants would be suitable, of course). Tides stir up the oceans which causes minerals to circulate. They facilitate periodic isolation of pockets of ocean in tidepools. (Solar tides sometimes reinforce lunar tides periodically making exceptionally high tides.) This may be important to the development of plant life. (I'm not talking about multicellular plants, I'm talking about solar powered microbes.) They could even affect the circulation of tectonic plates. Tectonic activity appears to be necessary for the circulation of necessary minerals, but that may be a mistake.

      So it's possible that a sizable moon is a necessity for the development of life, and this would really limit the number of planets where it could be initiated...unless gas giants would work. There it would be hard to figure out what the Goldilocks zone would be, as you wouldn't want too strong a tide, or too strong a magnetic field, and you'd get natural heating from tidal flexing, but that doesn't provide solar power for plant life.

      OTOH, all this is based on assuming that other life will be basically similar to us. Water chemistry based, etc. But life on Titan would be really slow, because the reactions that would drive it are weak in energy. And life on a gas giant (even a midget giant, like Neptune or Uranus) would have a really hard time leaving home.

      I wouldn't be surprised if there's life all over the place, but the evidence seems to be against lots of technological civilizations on small rocky planets unless interstellar travel is really dangerous. Please note all the qualifiers. And realize that I left out the ones I didn't think of. (OTOH, I don't believe the "We're a nature preserve." hypothesis, as that's just too inherently unlikely. I could, however, bel

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    9. Re:There is no Planet B by kenwd0elq · · Score: 1

      You presume that the basic laws of physics that we experience here, in this gravity well, exist uniformly everywhere. We cannot (yet) know this. It's entirely possible that there are other cosmic laws that we cannot notice here on Earth, but which may become significant in deep space.

  6. Re:Trump has destroyed NASA... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Maybe you missed the "In 2015, ..." part. Obama was our ruler then.

  7. Que the Trumpers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Que the Trumpers exclaiming "See science isn't fact (global warming isn't real, the earth is flat, Hillary's email, BENGAZZII!!, etc...)."

    1. Re: Que the Trumpers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What the Trumpers? Probably not what you meant.

      Trumper here to say you meant cue, not que.

  8. Science is an error-correction process by swillden · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The fundamental thing that everyone should understand about science -- and most people don't -- is that science is nothing more and nothing less than an error correction process.

    Everything we know is wrong, at least in some way and in some degree. Science is the process by which we identify errors and fix them, but science is itself an error-prone process and all scientific results are erroneous, at least in some way and in some degree. The fact that errors are discovered is not evidence that science doesn't work, it's evidence that science does work, that it identifies and corrects humanity's errors -- including those generated by previous science.

    What makes science works is that although we always introduce new errors in our understanding when we correct old errors in our understanding, the new errors are nearly always smaller. We approach the truth iteratively and asymptotically, getting ever closer but never arriving.

    And if anyone ever tells you that science is pointless because scientists "keep changing their minds", you need only point at the wealth, comfort and plenty in which we live, as compared to the poverty, hardship and scarcity in which our ancestors lived, just a few generations ago. The fact that science has not yet achieved perfection doesn't mean it doesn't work, it just means it's not yet done (and it will *never* be done; there will always be more errors to correct).

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    1. Re:Science is an error-correction process by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I BELIEVE they call it the scientific method,

      i'm no expert, shit with luck i can tie my own shoes,,

      you sound pissed off, maybe try speaking with baby jeebus. for some that helps lol

    2. Re:Science is an error-correction process by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not everybody's ancestors, a few generations ago, lived in poverty, hardship and scarcity. There has always been exceedingly rich, and desperately poor people; those at ease in this life, and those who struggle at every turn. Science isn't going to change that.

    3. Re:Science is an error-correction process by theCat · · Score: 1

      Well reasoned.

      I suggest the mechanism by which we (in the West, at least) enjoy the wealth, comfort and plenty in which we live, as compared to the poverty, hardship and scarcity in which our ancestors lived, is not because of science per se but because of easy access to fossil fuels. I am a field Biologist, and I am the first to admit to this reality. We've come a long way indeed, but primarily because we secured for ourselves a lot more free energy to play with than the ones came before us.

      That era may be ending. I don't know how much wealth, comfort etc we can count on going forward. A very few of us can I suppose, I predict the vast majority will be happy to survive at all with the simple tools, classic machines and coarse foods that sustained us for most of the time modern humans have traversed the planet.

      --
      =^..^= all your rodent are belong to us
    4. Re:Science is an error-correction process by dfghjk · · Score: 0

      "The fact that errors are discovered is not evidence that science doesn't work, it's evidence that science does work, that it identifies and corrects humanity's errors -- including those generated by previous science."

      No it's not. Identifying errors is not evidence of science even it applying scientific principles may lead to identifying errors. A scientist would understand this.

      The fact is it's pretty shitty science when a scientist doesn't even understand his own tools. All this bloviating serves only to hide the issue.

    5. Re:Science is an error-correction process by swillden · · Score: 2

      Utter nonsense. There are always errors in scientific work. In fact, much of the detail work in science is exactly identifying and controlling for errors... and it is not always done perfectly. Also, the value of peer review and replication is to provide opportunities to identify and correct errors in the original work. If it were possible to do perfect work, that wouldn't be necessary.

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    6. Re:Science is an error-correction process by swillden · · Score: 2

      Well reasoned.

      I suggest the mechanism by which we (in the West, at least) enjoy the wealth, comfort and plenty in which we live, as compared to the poverty, hardship and scarcity in which our ancestors lived, is not because of science per se but because of easy access to fossil fuels.

      Bah. Science gave us a lot of progress before we began using fossil fuels, and is providing alternative energy sources, as well as methods to be more efficient, for after we stop using them.

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    7. Re:Science is an error-correction process by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Utter nonsense. There are always errors in scientific work. In fact, much of the detail work in science is exactly identifying and controlling for errors... and it is not always done perfectly.

      Wrong. The science is settled. The raw temperature data sets were perfectly adjusted downward for the past in conformance with our perfectly accurate models.

      There is nothing more to discuss on the matter except legislation and how we need more funding.

    8. Re:Science is an error-correction process by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Fuck the self-evident noodling about science, Shillden, tell us more great things about Duplex.

    9. Re:Science is an error-correction process by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 0

      "The fact that errors are discovered is not evidence that science doesn't work, it's evidence that science does work, that it identifies and corrects humanity's errors -- including those generated by previous science."

      No it's not. Identifying errors is not evidence of science even it applying scientific principles may lead to identifying errors. A scientist would understand this.

      The fact is it's pretty shitty science when a scientist doesn't even understand his own tools. All this bloviating serves only to hide the issue.

      I'm glad someone pointed that out. It's a hermetically sealed defense. "No matter how bad our science was, that proves it was actually great!"

    10. Re:Science is an error-correction process by The+Evil+Atheist · · Score: 2

      The alternative is to not admit to any errors, when there are. Which is not scientific at all.

      Your position is self-contradictory.

      Science works because it admits errors and works to identify and fix them. Even trying to remove errors before proceeding is still having to admit errors and identifying them. You can't wait for perfect knowledge before working on the science, because the science wouldn't exist at all.

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    11. Re:Science is an error-correction process by The+Evil+Atheist · · Score: 1

      No matter how bad our science was, that proves it was actually great!

      You're switching between two different uses of science there. Your first use, "science", was referring to the data of the previous study. But what the OP meant by "it" was the scientific process in general.

      --
      Those who do not learn from commit history are doomed to regress it.
    12. Re:Science is an error-correction process by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The vast majority does not need to survive. In fact the sooner it's gone the better.

    13. Re:Science is an error-correction process by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The fact is it's pretty shitty science when a scientist doesn't even understand his own tools.

      You're a fucking idiot. Special Relativity is far from perfect, but it helps us understand enough about our universe to let GPS find your phone crammed up your ass. Identifying, studying, and adjusting for errors is a fundamental part of the scientific method. It's how we improve our tools, you fucking dolt.

    14. Re:Science is an error-correction process by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Industrial Revolution kicked off with coal.

      Without the mass production of the Industrial Revolution, all the goods you take for granted would be so expensive that you would never be able to afford them. Transportation would be expensive and difficult, meaning that goods - even food - would be far more expensive and limited.
      Hell, we wouldn't even have computers or other electronics. At least, not very many. Without fossil fuels, gathering the needed quantities of rare metals in the right spot to be able to produce them become prohibitively difficult.

      So, sure, science before fossil fuels did improve the world. But compare the modern world to the world of 1700, and you'll see there is more of a difference than there was between 1700 and 1700BC.

    15. Re:Science is an error-correction process by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Hold a press conference and make sure you publish in People magazine for prestige and funding" is not part of the scientific method....is it? Don't know if that's an issue or if it's reporters misreporting research.

      But what interests me the most about exoplanet hunting is just the prospect of being able to detect and even analyze an object that is huge orders of magnitude dimmer and smaller than a distant star that it is orbiting. I understand that the spectra of stars has been studied for centuries and periodicity in the light they give off can clue you into planetary transits if they're aligned properly with earth, but if we're bothering to use probes instead of telescopes to answer questions about our own solar system, then how sure can we be about conclusions we draw about other solar systems? Maybe "Tabby's star" is something the astrophysics community should focus more on rather than "discovering" thousands of new exoplanets. It seems kind of inevitable that the processes that created our solar system were present elsewhere, but how does that assertion reduce the number of data points you need to discover an "earth-like" planet?

      I often wonder whether the methodology/techniques that astronomers use could be used with intelligence gathering down here on earth ...or if stellar astrophysicists frequently "talk shop" with JPL people. If you can identify the signature of a needle from hundreds of miles away, can you go to the haystack and verify that the needle is actually there...and if it isn't what was it that tripped you up?

    16. Re:Science is an error-correction process by HanzoSpam · · Score: 1

      That might also explain why, if there is life on other planets, we haven't heard from it. We're lucky enough to have access to reasonably easy to obtain energy sources. If not for that, we wouldn't have the technology to be attempting to communicate with other planets. We'd still be stuck in the 18th century. While there was plenty of intelligent life on earth in the 18th century, it wasn't in any position to be broadcasting or receiving messages from other planets.

      Just because a planet evolves intelligent life doesn't necessarily mean it will have access to plentiful energy sources. There might be any number of intelligent species who's technology has never evolved past 18th century equivelent technology, because they don't have the energy to power it.

      --

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    17. Re: Science is an error-correction process by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ....you need only point at the wealth, comfort and plenty in which we live....

      No, for that you should thank the engineers.

    18. Re:Science is an error-correction process by swillden · · Score: 1

      You said the same thing I did, in different words. I'd have thought that you were just agreeing with me, except for your line about my position being self-contradictory. I'm confused.

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    19. Re:Science is an error-correction process by swillden · · Score: 1

      Utter nonsense. There are always errors in scientific work. In fact, much of the detail work in science is exactly identifying and controlling for errors... and it is not always done perfectly.

      Wrong. The science is settled. The raw temperature data sets were perfectly adjusted downward for the past in conformance with our perfectly accurate models.

      There is nothing more to discuss on the matter except legislation and how we need more funding.

      Complete and utter nonsense.

      Oh, the fact that anthropogenic global warming is a serious risk that we must address immediately is quite clear. We should be imposing carbon taxes, funding research into fossil fuel alternatives, and also researching more aggressive schemes for carbon extraction and sequestration and global cooling, perhaps by blocking insolation (because merely slowing -- or even stopping -- our dumping of CO2 into the atmosphere is not enough.)

      BUT anyone who believes that we fully and completely understand the planet's climate is an idiot. It's an enormous, and enormously complex system, and we have barely scratched the surface. Our models will change as we refine them. More measurement errors will be found and corrected. That doesn't mean it's likely that any of this error correction will cause us to decide AGW isn't real, or isn't really a problem, nor does it mean that we shouldn't be acting aggressively on the best information we have, but there are errors and we do need to continue doing the research to find and correct them.

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  9. well then by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 1

    I've long contemplated that we are just speculating from electromagnetic radiation that falls on us. What we confidently think we know about what's beyond our neighborhood, we do not really know.

    1. Re: well then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's worse than that. We are only speculating on what we think is electromagnetic radiation. It is the shadow that electromagnetic waves leave on the walls of our detectors. We are all living the allegory of the caves.

  10. Settled by sexconker · · Score: 1

    The science is se

    The original science wasn't shoddy, Mullally says. It's just that, since then, researchers have learned more about the telescope's imperfections

    What was that about carpenters and their tools?

    1. Re:Settled by dfghjk · · Score: 1

      Someone gets it. You're not a scientist when you fundamentally don't know what you're looking at because you don't understand your tools.

  11. Re: What else is big and old by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Anonymous Coward... I am your father.

  12. Re:"science" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Evolution is a fact. You have some evidence to the contrary that is not easily disproven?

  13. Re:"science" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Found another Russian spammer.

  14. Re:"science" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What - you've been able to replicate evolution in a controlled environment?

  15. Re:"science" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Same scientists who tell us global warming and evolution are "facts".

    Only those scientists that are hyper-partisan, rent seekers, do-as-I-say, or overly emotional types tend to do that.

  16. Re: "science" by Brockmire · · Score: 0

    Have you been to a museum? Have you even gotten a decent grade 5 education? I think the answer to both questions is no.