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NASA Again Delays Launch of Troubled Webb Telescope (nytimes.com)

In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget, America's next great space telescope has been postponed again. From a report: NASA announced on Wednesday that the James Webb Space Telescope, once scheduled to be launched into orbit around the sun this fall, will take three more years and another billion dollars to complete. A report delivered to NASA by an independent review board estimated that the cost of the troubled Webb telescope would now be $9.66 billion, and that it would not be ready to launch until March 30, 2021.

108 comments

  1. Time for a special project by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This should be taken off NASA's budget and financed independently. It's a (potentially) great tool, but it's dragging down a lot of other projects.

    1. Re:Time for a special project by arth1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Perhaps the project just should be canned.
      If not falling for the sunk cost fallacy, but completely disregarding how much we have already spent, will the now needed money (and realistically, multiply it by 3) buy us something that gives us more than if the money is spent on something else?
      If the latter, axe the project.

      And given how old and outdated this project already is, my inclination is to spend that money on new technology for new problems, not what was designed 15-11 years ago, and will still cost us more now than what was budgeted back then.

    2. Re:Time for a special project by greythax · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Would you rather spend another 9 billion on a new one, or a billion finishing this one?

      What makes you think we would be successful with some other technology if we can't be with this one?

    3. Re:Time for a special project by vtcodger · · Score: 1

      A product of NASA's "faster, better, cheaper" phase. With this announcement, it is now $9.16B over initial budget ($500M) and 14 years late. On top of which, unanticipated (in 1996) improvement in the the capabilities of (cheaper) large Earth based telescopes purportedly will largely obviate the need for the visible spectrum capability.

      Is it worth finishing and launching this thing, for the IR capabilities? I suppose so. But I won't be heartbroken if "they" finally get fed up and cancel the project. Maybe they can mount whatever has actually been built on a pedestal as a monument to hubris. Or use it for an artificial fishing reef.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    4. Re:Time for a special project by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It's not old, it's not outdated, and the sunk cost fallacy is inappropriate in this case. If the project is scrapped, NASA has a ten billion dollar paperweight sitting in a warehouse because you don't want the government to spend the equivalent of pocket change on a space telescope.

    5. Re:Time for a special project by HeckRuler · · Score: 4, Informative

      I understand the sunk cost fallacy angle.

      But why do you assume it's old and outdated? If we got it into the air, it'd be humanity's best telescope. Even 15 years after it's initial design.

    6. Re:Time for a special project by wooferhound · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Would you rather spend another 9 billion on a new one, or a billion finishing this one?

      This project has grown Too Big To Fail . . .

      --
      We are Dead Stars looking back Up at the Sky
    7. Re:Time for a special project by lhunath · · Score: 1

      You clearly have no understanding of what this project is, what it actually means to "spend money" in a national economy, nor what the implications of what you are proposing are.

      It's easy, isn't it, to make naive suggestions based on zero understanding of the actual project, issues involved, alternatives and budgetary projections?

      Aside from easy, it's also very damaging to go around eroding trust in the amazing projects and opportunities that are being worked on so hard every day.

      --
      ``OK, so ten out of ten for style, but minus several million for good thinking, yeah?''
    8. Re:Time for a special project by arth1 · · Score: 2

      It's not old, it's not outdated, and the sunk cost fallacy is inappropriate in this case. If the project is scrapped, NASA has a ten billion dollar paperweight sitting in a warehouse because you don't want the government to spend the equivalent of pocket change on a space telescope.

      Another billion dollar (and it's likely going to exceed that) is not pocket change. It's more than the original cost estimate for the entire mission.

      For comparison, the New Horizons program cost around $700 million all in all. Dawn was around $500 million.

      And new technologies not available at the time those missions were planned, and certainly not when JWT was planned, are available now, giving more bang for the buck.

      This is a prime example of sunken cost fallacy, where people feel obliged to continue because of how much has already been put into the program, instead of looking only at how much we need to put in from now on, no matter how much was put into it in the past.

    9. Re:Time for a special project by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It would be heartbreaking, but the problem is everyone knows NASA never cancels things once $X has been spent. So everyone lies about the cost, gets as far as they can before it's bloody obvious the money is insufficient, then asks for more. You can say that the leadership of the project should just be more honest, but the problem is if they don't lie about the needed cost, a different group/project will. NASA's selection, budgeting process, and evaluation procedures are broken.

    10. Re:Time for a special project by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, citizen, be careful there, eroding trust in these amazing projects. Having a little much too "think", haven't we?

    11. Re: Time for a special project by jd · · Score: 1

      The U.S. government wastes that on bridges to nowhere, Trump's golfing excursions and funding strip club excursions by the U.S. military.

      So, yes, if they don't give a shit about those, then set billion is chump change.

      Besides which, it's about the ROI . The military either offers no ROI, or a negative value depending on whether cleaning up the mess afterwards counts. The telescope has positive ROI, so the net cost is below the sticker price.

      The U.S. subsidizes coal and oil to the tune of hundreds of billions a year. If you cut the subsidies, you could have a giant flotilla of Webb telescopes as an interferometer.

      When you're willing to burn money on ego projects, you don't get to excuse not spending money on real stuff.

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    12. Re: Time for a special project by jd · · Score: 1

      Go join a Gorean community if you can't handle a modern society.

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    13. Re:Time for a special project by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What makes you think we would be successful with some other technology if we can't be with this one?

      What makes you think another billion bucks can make this crap works, like they had promised us, a long, long time ago?

    14. Re: Time for a special project by jd · · Score: 1

      You can't do infrared from Earth. There is no Earth-based telescope that can do it, nor will there ever be. You know this, so why create complaints you know are bogus?

      If it's costing too much, it's because people demanded the lowest bid rather than the best bid and then demanded NASA have a smaller budget AND THEN kept changing NASA's directives.

      Give it the money needed to do the job, then get the hell out of the way.

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    15. Re: Time for a special project by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > There is no Earth-based telescope that can do it, nor will there ever be

      That will be a great surprise to the many people with IR telescopes.

      Use Google.

    16. Re: Time for a special project by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So your argument is " We do worse things, so this is OK?"

    17. Re: Time for a special project by Pascoea · · Score: 1

      The telescope has positive ROI

      Please explain. What exactly is our investment returning? What is the value of what it returns?

    18. Re:Time for a special project by Forty+Two+Tenfold · · Score: 0

      Yeah, yeah, let's all rather finance the export of democracy to some new country.

      --
      Upward mobility is a slippery slope - the higher you climb the more you show your ass.
    19. Re:Time for a special project by arth1 · · Score: 1

      You can't export a commodity you don't have.

  2. Space Force by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We need space force more than ever to save us from this FAILED NASA program. Make it happen, Mr. President!

    1. Re:Space Force by GameboyRMH · · Score: 4, Funny

      Duct-tape an AR-15 onto it, spray on a camo paint job, and call it a SPACE FORCE unmanned recon ship. Funding guaranteed!

      (Of course that could have dire consequences, but doesn't everything these days?)

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    2. Re:Space Force by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 2

      Duct-tape an AR-15 onto it, spray on a camo paint job, and call it a SPACE FORCE unmanned recon ship. Funding guaranteed!

      The good news would be that a military JWST would be up and running in no time. The bad news is that it would now cost $100 billion.

  3. "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by Nutria · · Score: 0

    LOL. In fact, LOLOLOLOLOLOL.

    It was supposed to launch 11 years ago and cost less than $1Bn.

    --
    "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    1. Re: "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Clearly they should have expected it to cost twice as much and take three times longer to launch.

    2. Re: "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      A good rule of thumb for US (both federal and state) government projects it 3x the initial projected cost.

      That's what happens when someone is spending other people's money. The power aspect is the only concern, money is power, they like power, so they spend like it's free.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    3. Re: "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, what happens is they spend forever trying to get things done since nobody wants to pay for anything until it is broken, then they have to document every penny and somebody still gripes over the cost of a trash can.

      Besides, it's when you can take other people's money that the greed comes out.

      After all, it's their fault if you can cheat them. So why not do it?

    4. Re: "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

      A good rule of thumb for US (both federal and state) government projects it 3x the initial projected cost.

      The problem is that the JWST has gone WAY over the normal 3x threshold. Most internal budgeting goes by the 3x rule, so that is expected and planned for, since everybody knows how the "lowball-approve-jackup" game is played. But by grossly exceeding that threshold, JWST has become known as "the telescope that ate astronomy" since so much money has been diverted from other projects.

    5. Re: "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by magarity · · Score: 1

      That's what happens when someone is spending other people's money.

      This is what happens with cost-plus contracting instead of fixed price contracting.

    6. Re: "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 2

      This is what happens with cost-plus contracting instead of fixed price contracting.

      This seems like a good idea but what you actually get is no company will sign such a big contract with so many risks. The threats to the company are simply too large. If something goes wrong -- something not always under the control of the contractor -- it can easily bankrupt the company when billions of dollars are on the line. Then NASA gets left with a half-completed project, a bankrupt company that can't finish it, and all the money spent up to that point was wasted.

      What's really needed here is realistic estimates on what it will take to complete the project from whatever companies that bid on it. It should also include a rigorous non-partisan review of the bids to make sure someone isn't lowballing it hoping to get the contract and add fees on later.

      What isn't this being done already? Politics. The only thing politicians care about is the money getting spent in their districts. They don't care if things like the JWST actually fly and do good science so there's zero incentive for them to be efficient. After all, it's not their money being spent, is it? It's ours. I've never met a politician who didn't think they could spend my money better than I could and that will probably never change.

      Thank God SpaceX is starting to shake things up. Yes, SpaceX sucks off the government teat just like other "private" space companies but at least they're trying to innovate and do things differently.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    7. Re: "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If a company estimated correctly, time and budget, there is zero chance they would win the contract.
      Instead the company that lowballs it and then does cost-plus gets it and goes well past what it should have been.

      Doesn't happen with just rockets. Software is rarely estimated realistically because it wouldn't be awarded due to others lying to undercut.

    8. Re: "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Although, I think California is on track (so to speak) to set a new rule of thumb with their riderless crazy train to nowhere (and the new rule of thumb won't be in the "cheaper/faster" direction).

    9. Re: "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      3x of original estimate? Are you kidding? The Hubble had original estimate of $400 million and it has costed $10 billion by 2010 and it is considered one of the most successful project based on cost benefit. It was supposed to be launched in 1983 but it was launched in 1990, however, the telescope had a fatal error which was fixed later in 1994.

      JWST had estimate of $4.5 billion in 2005 and launch in 2011. Now estimate of $10 billion and launch in 2021. But this was expected. European Herschel telescope launched in 2009 had 3.5 m mirror and costed 1.4 billion. This has 6.1 meter mirror. Typically the cost of telescope goes as cube of mirror size so the cost of about 10 billion is expected.

    10. Re: "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by tlhIngan · · Score: 1

      This seems like a good idea but what you actually get is no company will sign such a big contract with so many risks. The threats to the company are simply too large. If something goes wrong -- something not always under the control of the contractor -- it can easily bankrupt the company when billions of dollars are on the line. Then NASA gets left with a half-completed project, a bankrupt company that can't finish it, and all the money spent up to that point was wasted.

      What's really needed here is realistic estimates on what it will take to complete the project from whatever companies that bid on it. It should also include a rigorous non-partisan review of the bids to make sure someone isn't lowballing it hoping to get the contract and add fees on later.

      What isn't this being done already? Politics. The only thing politicians care about is the money getting spent in their districts. They don't care if things like the JWST actually fly and do good science so there's zero incentive for them to be efficient. After all, it's not their money being spent, is it? It's ours. I've never met a politician who didn't think they could spend my money better than I could and that will probably never change.

      The problem is, a lot of contracts ARE fixed price. However, if you know how it works, it's fixed price as long as whole list of conditions are met - if any of them are violated, the price starts rising.

      This can include stuff like "the work will be done in XX state" and some politician wants it done in their state. So now the company tacks on the costs of moving the workforce over to the price of the bill.

      I've written a few fixed price contracts - you cover as much ass as possible, so when the customer comes up and changes something, you soak them. This includes stuff like requirements as well, plus contingency and other amounts. We always warn them when something else they want causes a change request, as that adds to the cost they will have to pay.

      Fixed price contracts are generally the rule, which is why everyone covers their ass because they know there will be changes, and those changes will add time and cost to the project so they get billed for.

      And yes, you build in things like start/stop costs - if the customer causes a stop work for any reason (e.g., fail to deliver required deliverables on time, the stopping and starting of the project incurs costs that have to be recouped as well. Any time there's a "changing of the guard" all of a sudden can cause all this as the outgoing guy simply walks away and the incoming guy has to step in and pick everything up.

      Cost Plus (or Time and Materials) isn't always more expensive than Fixed Price - careful contract writing ensures that Fixed Price contracts have sufficient bloat to factor in risk, as well as sufficient CYA to ensure if the user wants a change, they will pay for it.

    11. Re: "In a blow to NASA's prestige and its budget" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You need to Google "Fatal Error".
      Then the rest of your little story.

  4. Given the current state of the USA ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... it's a surprise that any scientific institution still exists at all.

    If that isn't the case at the end of the current figurehead-du-jour's term, it certainly will, the next time people can't believe their votes are absolutely meaningless. Denial will make sure of that.

  5. Sticker shock by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 2

    ... the cost of the troubled Webb telescope would now be $9.66 billion.

    Getting close to the $13 billion cost of the latest US aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) and twice as much as the earlier Nimitz class aircraft carriers at $4.5 billion each. AND I imagine the flight-deck on the Webb will be*much* shorter.

    I know they're apples and nuclear-powered oranges, but damn. The Hubble Space Telescope only cost $4.7 billion by the time it launched.

    --
    It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
    1. Re:Sticker shock by hipp5 · · Score: 2

      I know they're apples and nuclear-powered oranges, but damn. The Hubble Space Telescope only cost $4.7 billion by the time it launched.

      If those are 1990 dollars then Hubble actually cost around $9 billion in today's dollars. Though to be fair, I'm not sure if all of those 9.66 billion JWST dollars are in 2018 dollars.

    2. Re:Sticker shock by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

      Also, JWST is WAY more capable that Hubble. It is like comparing apples to watermelons.

    3. Re:Sticker shock by Teun · · Score: 1

      It is realy hard to cost such a project ahead of completion.
      Especially when it takes so long, technology is rapidly improving and they must have changed to newer camera's etc. since the first design.
      Just look at the technical and price development of an iPhone over this same period and you realise this increase is nothing special.

      Unless you want to launch 9 year old tech...

      --
      "The likes of Facebook and WhatsApp are free to those whose privacy is of zero value."
    4. Re:Sticker shock by Strider- · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but at least the JWST is useful.

      --
      ...si hoc legere nimium eruditionis habes...
    5. Re:Sticker shock by tlhIngan · · Score: 2

      If those are 1990 dollars then Hubble actually cost around $9 billion in today's dollars.

      Does that include the $1B or so it cost to fix Hubble? You have to remember when they launched Hubble, the mirror distorted a tiny amount causing it to produce blurry images (basically the mirror was distorted by less than the thickness of a sheet of paper).

      Hubble was the great white elephant that threatened science in the early years until they fixed it.

    6. Re:Sticker shock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This one may be costing more because they are actually measuring everything carefully (measure twice, grind once) and testing the optics as a unit.

    7. Re: Sticker shock by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It didnâ(TM)t distort. The contractor building the mirror built it solid and polished it perfectly... to the wrong shape.

    8. Re: Sticker shock by Miamicanes · · Score: 1

      The political problem with JWST's cost is that it might offer lots of things Hubble can't do, but unfortunately, JWST is more of a *complement* to Hubble than a literal *replacement* for it. When Hubble finally goes kaput, it'll be a loss for generations since there isn't even a true replacement on the table despite its official EOL approaching within a decade or so.

      We can only cross our fingers & hope that when the time comes, SpaceX will be in a position to step up to the plate & drag NASA kicking & screaming into funding a robotic servicing mission to save it.

    9. Re: Sticker shock by Agripa · · Score: 1

      It didnâ(TM)t distort. The contractor building the mirror built it solid and polished it perfectly... to the wrong shape.

      They saved money by not testing it.

    10. Re:Sticker shock by schweini · · Score: 1

      Wow - i never considered comparing the astronomical (heh!) prices of space missions with the ridiculous prices the military sometimes pays! Thanks!
      Is there any way to see a detailed expenditure report of the Webb? Because that really is a truckfull of money.

  6. Government doesn't scale by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Please provide ANY large federal government program or project of the last 20 years that hasn't been seriously over budget, mismanaged, delayed, etc.

    SpaceX could have probably done it at half the price and on schedule.

    It's scary to think how bad things would be if the US federal government were in charge of healthcare.

    1. Re:Government doesn't scale by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      P.J. O'Rourke — 'If you think health care is expensive now, wait until you see what it costs when it's free.'

    2. Re: Government doesn't scale by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If SpaceX did it the telescope would blow up.

    3. Re:Government doesn't scale by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      SpaceX doesn't make "for science" satellites. They've managed to piggyback a few internet relay sats of their own but those have private/public investment backing, share the launch costs, and don't involve the world's largest orbital mirror that will have 0 chance of being serviced by space technicians.

    4. Re: Government doesn't scale by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We donâ(TM)t have to wait. We can look at what it costs in every other civilized nation on earth, which is less than what it costs here under PJâ(TM)s favored paradigm.

    5. Re: Government doesn't scale by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      PJ O'Rourke's favored paradigm would be a capitalist market in medicine. What we actually have is an interlocking cartel of medieval guilds which uses the force of law to operate healthcare as a monopoly.

      My solution: work around the legal barriers by putting free-market healthcare for the general population on Indian reservations. Put medical buildings and dental centers right next to the casino, which everyone already knows how to find.

    6. Re: Government doesn't scale by prefec2 · · Score: 1

      SpaceX uses technology which has already been developed elsewhere. Therefore, they know what to expect. The Webb is new. Many parts of it have never existed before. Therefore, it is impossible to use other projects as a baseline for cost estimation.

    7. Re: Government doesn't scale by prefec2 · · Score: 1

      Or use a public controlled system like any European country with cost half of the US, but better service quality and access to almost everyone.

  7. Again? by 110010001000 · · Score: 1, Funny

    Why don't they take my recommendation and build a space factory and use that to build the telescope? They could mine asteroids to get the raw material. That would save us from having to build it on Earth and deliver it to space. It would already be there! We could then reassign those factories to build other useful things.

    1. Re:Again? by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      The cost of setting up a "space factory" would be orders of magnitude more than anything like this, especially because there are so many critical components which are extremely difficult to make. The primary cost of Webb isn't at all getting the material up there, it is getting very novel components to actually work and be engineered correctly. In general, space telescopes are still a pretty new thing, and the JWT is substantially larger than prior space telescopes. We're still learning a lot about how to make them.

    2. Re:Again? by 110010001000 · · Score: 1, Funny

      No, I have it all worked out on my blog. It would work.

    3. Re:Again? by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

      The cost of setting up a "space factory" would be orders of magnitude more than anything like this...

      You're also forgetting that such an endeavor would make it difficult for a politician to channel funds to his/her home district, thus they have no incentive to even consider it even if the other challenges were removed.

      Follow the money. Always follow the money. When billions of dollars are being flung about like they're pocket change you can bet decisions are driven by whose pockets are being lined instead of what actually makes sense for the project.

      --
      In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    4. Re:Again? by cyberchondriac · · Score: 1

      ..Or he's got a very dry sense of humor. Kind of hard to tell in print tho.

      --

      Look back up at my post, now look back down, you're on the Internet. Now look back up. I'm a signature.
    5. Re:Again? by painandgreed · · Score: 2

      ..Or he's got a very dry sense of humor. Kind of hard to tell in print tho.

      Judging by his other posts, I expect he is serious and the reason he hates Musk so much is because his space factory plans aren't being recognized for their genius and acted on by SpaceX.

    6. Re:Again? by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      You nailed it! I am totally serious about space factories. They are totally awesome. I sent Musk and email about it and he didn't even respond! Can you imagine? I am going to send him another email about host files. I'll be right back!

  8. Another year by Tailhook · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It was only four months ago that they kicked JWST out to 2020. SLS got delayed to 2019 and is now being audited by the OIG; expect that report to be another shit show, followed by another delay to 2020.

    --
    Maw! Fire up the karma burner!
    1. Re:Another year by 110010001000 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Ridiculous. And SpaceX has been regularly delivering reusable rockets and landing them again. Private business is obviously superior.

    2. Re:Another year by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      SpaceX was able to deliver the Falcon 9 and Heavy, the world's most advanced orbital rockets, in less time than NASA has spent on the SLS and with the chump change NASA paid them to develop them. NASA of course would be incapable of doing the same with that same money, the SLS proves it. They really should get out of the rocket building business. The should focus on exploration and buy seats on commercial flights. As for JWST, sadly there is no SpaceX equivalent in the probe market. I wonder if maybe they are just being too ambitious or if NASA has gotten worse and worse at project management over the years. Probably a little column A and a little column B.

        I know it isn't entirely fair to compare the NASA of today to the NASA of yore, but regardless of the budget disparity they once were able to achieve things thought impossible. Money alone doesn't do that, the F-35 proves it. I think a lot of it can come down to culture and organization. In the early days NASA was run by a general on loan from the pentagon and much of their staff had a results oriented mindset. Now NASA is run by career administrators and scientists. Scientists are great at their job, but running programs isn't their job. Its doing science. As for career government admins, I can't think of a more inefficient and ineffectual bunch. I think NASA has lost a lot of their can do, mission focused attitude. Its not all their fault. There are many causes for malaise and its a slowly creeping thing.

      But here we are, the JWST has taken longer than the Apollo program and so far has nothing to show for it. Same with the SLS, been over a decade they have worked and reworked on various rockets to nowhere, different name, same thing and the SLS which still hasn't flown has less payload than the Saturn V. If that's all they are going to do why not just make some more Saturn Vs? We probably forgot how.

    3. Re:Another year by Eravnrekaree · · Score: 1

      Just Kill SLS, fund BFR and save money. Keep the Atlas and Delta for high priority military projects (these are actually used by Air Force). Given the 30 year lead up to Webb, probably better launch that on a Delta IV for now. Use Space X, Blue Origin, Orbital/ATK etc for everything else. SLS is threatening to become another shuttle white elephant for NASA, sucking up the money leaving little left for actual science.

    4. Re:Another year by Strider- · · Score: 2

      JWST will be launching on Ariane 5 out of Kourou, French Guiana. The launch is part of the ESA's contribution to the project.

      --
      ...si hoc legere nimium eruditionis habes...
    5. Re:Another year by lhunath · · Score: 1

      If you kill the SLS, be ready for all state support for NASA to dry up soon after. It so happens NASA's congressional support is dependent upon it injecting a good deal of federal funding into local state economies nation-wide.

      --
      ``OK, so ten out of ten for style, but minus several million for good thinking, yeah?''
    6. Re:Another year by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The majority of the JWST is being done by a private company - Northrup Grumman.

    7. Re:Another year by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Aah, a philanthropic organization known for its efficiency, if ever there was one.

    8. Re:Another year by mentil · · Score: 1

      Threatening? Look at the NASA budget breakdown -- the vast majority is tied up in boondoggles. The portion devoted to actual science and ongoing missions is pitiful.

      --
      Corruption is convincing someone that the selfless ideal is the same as their selfish ideal.
    9. Re:Another year by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      Private business was happy to suck up NASA funding for decades. Elon Musk is obviously superior, a guy driven by a long term goal (Mars) rather than shareholder value.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
  9. need more nerds by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Seems like NASA did better back when all the nerds gravitated to NASA. Since they started their outreach to attract more non-nerds they have gone downhill

    1. Re:need more nerds by arth1 · · Score: 1

      Ironically, James Webb was one of the non-nerd bureaucrats that ran NASA, coming from a background as heading the Bureau of Business for president Truman.

  10. Cancel it! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Cancel it, ban all of its contractors/managers/subsidiaries from participation in government projects for a decade and place its deteriorating hulk in front of the NASA Administration building as a warning to future generations about letting a project grow out of control. The overages on this delay alone are around the entire budget of the initially planned telescope.

    I love science, and I think we need more funds diverted towards it. But it needs to be done on some kind of fixed budget with meaningful accountability. JWST left that behind years ago and shows no signs correcting itself no mater how much money is thrown at it.

    1. Re:Cancel it! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But also ban any company where the higher level executives move after the banned one becomes bankrupt.

  11. 3/2 of LHC by schure · · Score: 2

    Just for reference, the LHC only cost $6.4b.

  12. I bet... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    they didn't see that coming.

  13. it's still worth to wait. by AlwinBarni · · Score: 1

    It's not good news, however considering potential science return it's still worth. This telescope will have capability of taking spectras from exoplanets - potentially finding signatures for habitability or even life.

    With regard to the cost, treading into unknown is inherent to any discovery, thus the costs are hard to predict, "we do it not because it's easy, but because it's hard". In my opinion unlimited fund is not OK, however little bit over the current cost is acceptable (even though so much over-budged) - nobody questions today the heritage of Hubble, or New Horizons, or Cassini, or Curiosity.

  14. Remove all the private contractors by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We know that this is so costly because of all the private contracts sitting on top. They know that congress will renew the project; and therefore their contract.

    To be honest, all STEM related activities should by the govt should be open source. If you are a contractor and do not like this, find business elsewhere.

    1. Re:Remove all the private contractors by Eravnrekaree · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Part of the problem with NASAs cost is congressional mandates as pork barell to districts with the plants. Shelby comes to mind. If NASA were more independent of congress perhaps their engineers could exert more discipline on their suppliers and select based on best value?

  15. And the name by OneHundredAndTen · · Score: 1

    Who came up with the idea of naming it after a bureaucrat who knew practically nothing about astronomy?

  16. Accountability? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Every single person associated with JWST should be banned from ever working on another government-funded program. They lied when they originally proposed the project; they knowingly over-promised on schedule and capability while grossly underbidding the price. They counted on government project inertia and the "sunk cost" fallacy to keep them going once they won approval and the real price started to surface. This damned joke is already something like a decade behind schedule and 16x over-cost from the original bid. It gets re-reviewed every few months and at every such review its launch schedule "slips" and another BILLION (or more) dollars are added to the cost (which was originally about 0.5 Billion USD).

    The jokers working on JWST do not care - they have made entire careers on this. Somebody who started on this in 1996 will have been on the project for 25 years by the time it launches and will be able to retire by the time it completes its mission. Such a person will not move-on to the next one, he/she will RETIRE. This is nothing like the earlier probes where a scientist or engineer might work on a whole series of Ranger or Explorer satellites/probes gaining experience on each and adding value to the next from the experience gained on the previous.

    This sort of very bad behavior should never be rewarded. JWST should be put on a rocket this year, get launched "as-is" (since it's many years past its originasl promised launch date) and then when it fails spectacularly all involved should be prosecuted as frauds. The taxpayers should NOT be forced to pay billions of dollars to paper-over this level of incompetence/dishonesty.

  17. Re:Better stick with a Delta to launch this sucker by kellymcdonald78 · · Score: 1

    It's being launched on an Ariane 5

  18. Yawn by Green+Mountain+Bot · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I'm old enough to remember when the Hubble Space Telescope was an expensive boondoggle that would never produce valuable science. How did that turn out?

    1. Re:Yawn by lazarus · · Score: 1

      I'm old enough to remember the industrial revolution, but I don't remember the Hubble being an expensive boondoggle. It was delayed by the Challenger disaster and had to be powered up and kept in a clean room for three years which was costly, but that wasn't the fault of the project itself. When it was proposed Congress agreed to fully fund the program, but the Senate cut the budget by 50%, which was then made up by ESA.

      If you have evidence that it was an expensive boondoggle, I'd like to see that. It cost $36M in 1978 ($287M adjusted for inflation). Webb is now close to $10B in 2018 (30x more expensive).

      I think the Webb is an amazing machine, but if and when it goes up on a rocket I'll be holding my breath the launch system doesn't explode getting it there.

      --
      I am not interested in articles about life extension advancements.
    2. Re:Yawn by mrsquid0 · · Score: 1

      Don't forget to add the cost of the shuttle servicing missions to Hubble's total cost. And don't forget about the primary mirror being the wrong shape. Hubble is one of humanity's greatest accomplishments, but it has not been cheap.

      --
      Just because you are paranoid does not mean that no-one is out to get you.
    3. Re:Yawn by lazarus · · Score: 1

      Only the first servicing mission (STS-61) was to correct the flawed lenses. The rest were upgrades. The entire shuttle mission was devoted to the fix at a cost of $450M adjusted for inflation. Total cost is still under $500M or 1/20th of the Webb.

      Look, I'm not saying that the Webb is not worth it. I'm just saying that the Hubble wasn't a boondoggle. It was cool science on a low budget that may have needed some fixes and upgrades, but it wasn't a boondoggle.

      --
      I am not interested in articles about life extension advancements.
    4. Re:Yawn by Green+Mountain+Bot · · Score: 1

      I'm criticizing the critics, not the project. Hubble *was* called an expensive boondoggle, especially after the first blurry pictures came down. That the solution was going to add even more expense to the project didn't help public perception at the time.

      But after it was fixed, the real science started, and it was freaking amazing. It didn't take long for people to start to see the value of it. I expect the same to happen with the Webb once it's online and results start coming back.

  19. Just like the last n times? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That kind of thinking is exactly, how we got to wasting so much money in the first place!

  20. Private businesses? Like the US "government"? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Aka the scapegoat sock puppet of the oligarchy of businesses.

    Or do you still believe there are non-"lobbyist" politicians?

  21. Re:FRAUD WATSTE AND ABUSE by vtcodger · · Score: 2

    Got any documentation for either of those claims? From what I can see, President Dingbat has roughly the same management skills as Hillary Rodham Clinton. Pretty much none whatsoever.

    Six major bankruptcies in his projects plus the Trump Shuttle which defaulted on its debts in 1990 but was dismembered by his bankers and sold without declaring bankruptcy.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    --
    You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
  22. Yeah but wouldn't you rather find the aliens by presidenteloco · · Score: 1

    before they find us????

    You have to look at the big picture....:-)

    --

    Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
  23. Re:Better stick with a Delta to launch this sucker by Kjella · · Score: 1

    I think SpaceX has got the reliability but why would they want that business? They seem to have a pretty full manifest and nobody's going to remember the JWST for the low launch cost. So worst case it blows up and SpaceX gets the blame for setting astronomy back a decade. Best case they get a few bucks and a passing grade. And it's trivial to spin as a "money is no object" launch where they just didn't care what was the most cost-effective option. I mean they got national security payloads and are in the process of becoming man-rated, they don't need any poster child missions. And to be cruel if someone else's rocket fails it could be a fatal blow to a higher priced competitor, like what are we really paying for. So if I was SpaceX I'd feign interest but make sure not to win the bid...

    --
    Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  24. Re: FRAUD WATSTE AND ABUSE by bestweasel · · Score: 1

    The latest delay has caused been purely by T***p's insistence that a high-resolution Mexican spotter be added to the telescope.

  25. So much for the No More Land Based Telescopes idea by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 0

    Twenty years ago, the Green lobby tried to stop the development of astronomy in Arizona, first with a fake endangered species argument and then with a fake native claims argument:
    https://link.springer.com/chap...

    At the time, they claimed that Hawaii was a better location for ground-based telescopes than Arizona because the University of Hawaii owned an astronomy reserve on the summit of Mauna Kea, which was well supported by both the international science community and by the local economy. What happened, as we know now, was that as soon as the Greens lost in Arizona they immediately transferred their anti-science campaign to Hawaii, where they have been trying to oust UH from its deeded astronomy reserve and prevent the newest generation of telescopes from being built. They again ginned up a fake native claims argument, as in Arizona.

    Their "go to Hawaii..." argument they tried in Arizona has now become "Send the telescopes to space..." When we have a space-based economy that will support scientific infrastructure on that scale, we will gladly do that. In the meantime, we need to finish our current generation of ground-based telescopes.

    Mr. Trump, you have a bulletproof Supreme Court now. Send tanks up Mauna Kea, if that's what it will take, to get the keel laid for Thirty Meter Telescope.

  26. Um this isn't new.... by freeschwag · · Score: 1

    This behemoth is sitting in a high bay at Northrop Grumman in Huntington Beach at the well known Space Park. Other contractors that worked on it let you tour and take pictures as it's a public funded item. NG has it in a secured facility and no pictures allowed. Delayed over and over again, it's not so much a NASA problem as a NG engineering debockle. They punish their support groups by demanding overnight calibration services as downtime is the devils work, using "work stoppage" and "deadlines" as justification because no one has the forethought to care if their equipment is calibrated or not. This is a "must not fail" project but they are not handling it as such, sadly.

    --
    Tweet, tweet, all id10t's out of the gene pool, open swim is over.
  27. Canned and replaced by what? by kbahey · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Our atmosphere is opaque to infrared. So any infrared astronomy has to be done from space. Hubble can only do partial infrared (specifically near-infrared), not the rest of the infrared spectrum.

    Infrared is needed because it can peer through dust clouds. See this image of Eagle Nebula in visible vs. near infrared by Hubble to see the difference.

    JWST works mainly in infrared, near and far. Moreover, it has much more aperture than Hubble (~ 2.4 meters vs 6.5 meters).

    All this means that JWST can see back in time when the first stars that shined in the cosmos, and shed light on how the Big Bang progressed. Important stuff, and no instrument compares to its capabilities.

    1. Re: Canned and replaced by what? by jd · · Score: 1

      Agreed, but I'd like to see an interferometry array. Space telescopes are necessarily small, so we need multiple to get the resolution and sensitivity.

      --
      It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
    2. Re:Canned and replaced by what? by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > Our atmosphere is opaque to infrared

      What? How can you possibly believe that? Have you ever looked at a solar spectrum? Gebus:

      http://www.coseti.org/atmosphe.htm

      Yes, there's some rather large holes, but there's also some rather larger areas that are even more transparent than visible. The key ~5 micron area is indeed blocked, but that doesn't stop all sorts of IR work here on the ground - you know, like the "NASA Infrared Telescope Facility"

    3. Re:Canned and replaced by what? by kbahey · · Score: 1

      Yes, you are right, it is not totally opaque. But there are holes, like you said.

      And still, water vapour in our atmosphere absorbs a lot of infrared. Water is a green house gas. So the best observation for IR is above the atmosphere.

      So to get over the holes and water vapour, we have things like like SOFIA, which is not 6 meters, and then you have JWST with the sun shield.

  28. Northrop Grumman = failure by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The main records Northrop Grumman has broken as of late are in no bid and cost plus government contracts. The execs hollowed out the company and pocketed much of it, got piles of money from the Bush administration, and borrow like mad to buy companies up such as TRW, who originally had this contract. I worked for TRW back in the day and saw the JWST in the cleanroom in the early 2000s. What I saw in the clean room was basically completed as TRW was a highly competent company who paid for top notch engineers and focused on a corporate culture that cut bureaucracy and waste. Seemed straightforward and it worked out well for TRW in terms of having the best stats out there. Northrop Grumman took over in 2004. It is 2018 now and all Northrop Grumman has really done is hollow out the team that was working on this and put some low cost screw-ups in place and then made it impossible for anybody to get anything done. While I was not on the JWST project, the facility I was in had all of its servers moved to a Texas datacenter, which promptly got destroyed by hurricane Rita shortly after finishing the move. At the same time they cut the number of T1 lines to the facility in half, so our connections to the servers just timed out again and again, so we could not get anything done even before the servers got destroyed. When I needed to download something like drivers off of the Internet, I would have to drive home, download, and then bring back on a USB drive because you know gotta cut costs by basically eliminating WAN connections and especially the main connection to the Internet needed to be cost reduced by just having a tiny pipe. They fired everybody and made them re-apply for their jobs for less money and many just walked away then. They put up job postings like Senior Oracle DBA for $50k/y and then went well no American will go for it, so more H1-B workers. They extensively outsourced sensitive defense contract work to "low cost" foreign workers and had meetings where they bragged about that being their strategy moving forward. They had a 7 figure exec on the east coast argue with our secretary over a pack of pens and in the end we did not have anything to write with. They took down the protective internal firewalls because you know "one Northrop Grumman" and the Slammer worm brought down everything and similar worms kept taking out the whole Northrop Grumman network as if it didn't already work poorly enough. They screwed around with everyone's benefits such as health and dental and changed people's hours including mine without telling me, so we just ended up with less money in our paycheck because that was our new 'salaried' hours without telling us. Didn't apply for overtime and lose 6 hours of pay per week before it kicked in because you did not know your hours were changed, too bad. So many good engineers just left without notice. All I saw coming in for replacement were dumb, sexually harassing fakes from Texas and such because you know Northrop Grumman loves Texans (at least during the Bush years) and H1-B workers.

    To sum it up, I don't see any reason why the JWST would ever work. This is just throwing good money in after bad in a hopeless situation. The Hubble was a different story, so don't compare the two.

  29. Trump Will Cancel It Now That It's News by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They should have just taken three more years, buried the money deep in the next three budgets where nobody would likely look for it, and kept quiet about it.