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New Computer System Helps Slash Cholera Cases in Yemen By Predicting Where Outbreaks Will Occur (bbc.co.uk)

Cholera cases in Yemen have been slashed by a new system that predicts where outbreaks will occur. From a report: Last year, there were more than 50,000 new cases in just one week -- this year, the numbers plummeted to about 2,500. The system has enabled aid workers to focus efforts on prevention several weeks in advance of an outbreak -- by monitoring rainfall. It comes as the UN says it is concerned about a possible "third wave" of the epidemic. The deployment of the technology has been coordinated by the UK's Department for International Development. [...] The UK's overseas aid department has worked with the Met Office to develop a system that predicts where cholera will occur four weeks ahead of time.

The Met Office produces a rainfall forecast for Yemen. Using its supercomputers, it is to determine the specific amount of rain that will fall and pinpoint the areas it will hit within a 10km (six-mile) radius. These are important because downpours overwhelm the sewerage system and spread the infection. The forecasts are used in conjunction with a computer model developed by Prof Rita Colwell, at the University of Maryland, and Dr Antar Jutla, at West Virginia University. Together, this information enables scientists to predict the areas most likely to experience an outbreak, up to four weeks in advance.

44 comments

  1. These are important because downpours overwhelm th by mapkinase · · Score: 1

    These are important because downpours overwhelm the sewerage system

    Sooo, I am guessing the parameters of Yemeni sewage system are also in the model?

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  2. Or you know.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Stop bombing them.

    1. Re:Or you know.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I was going to say stop shitting where you drink from.

    2. Re:Or you know.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That would be an ironic/moronic thing for a Republican to say though. * https://www.cleanwateraction.org/releases/president-trump-guts-protections-water-clean-water-action-statement

      https://www.nrdc.org/experts/becky-hammer/trumps-infrastructure-plan-guts-critical-water-safeguards

      https://www.newsweek.com/trump-administration-epa-scott-pruitt-clean-water-coal-ash-829776

    3. Re:Or you know.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What does any of that have to do with shit water in Yemen?

  3. Prevention by manu0601 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    A cheap way to prevent many problems in Yemen would be to stop bombing it.

    1. Re:Prevention by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Shh, the Saudi-Bush family will hear.

    2. Re:Prevention by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why is this marked troll?

    3. Re:Prevention by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Just like a slightly more expensive way to prevent many problems in Yemen would be bomb it out completely?

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    4. Re:Prevention by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's not slightly more expensive, that costs your humanity and trustworthiness in the eyes of the world and makes you a pariah. Don't be a moron. That would have major, major costs.

    5. Re:Prevention by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The "costs" of the never ending wars are much higher than decisively bombing and killing your enemy until the only choices left are unconditional surrender or dying. Both Germany and Japan faced this dilemma and both countries surrendered bringing WW2 to an end. 45 years later Germany and Japan arose from the ashes to become two of the most influential and modern countries on the planet. One glaring example of people to stupid and to manipulated to make a rational choice are the Palestinians. They have created their own hell by their incessant war mongering and terroristic activities over the past 60 years. Israel is never going to allow any so called right of return. That is an undisputable claim and no amount of negotiating will change this fact. They currently occupy Egyption and Jordanian territory that Israel offered to return after the 1973 war. The only reason Egypt and Jordan did not agree to the hand over is that they wanted to burden Israel with trying to deal with the people living there. Egypt and Jordan both abandoned their own countrymen for the sake of irritating the Israelis. SO after 70 years of non-stop bullshit the Palestinians have three choices. They can lobby Egypt and Jordan to reclaim ownership and responsibility for the territory. They can cease all military attacks against Israel and totally de-militarize. If they followed this path they would have their sovereign state. And the third option is they can continue living in fantasy land and hide behind the delusions of "resistance". However this shit has gone on long enough and has cost billions of dollars and thousands of lives over the past 70 years. If they continue with the 3rd option Israel can start blowing up shit and killing people until the resistance recognizes that losers of an armed conflict don't get to dictate terms. And in today's world Israel could carpet bomb the entire area of Gaza and the WB and no one would stop them.

    6. Re:Prevention by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also don’t drink water with shit in it.
      100% effective.
      Sadly this is easier said than done in places like this.

      I lived in a third world country and it was very easy to predict when cholera was going to break out and where.

      Exactly where ever the waste water was getting into the drinking water.
      Like clock work annually, once the monsoons come, cholera.

    7. Re:Prevention by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As a person from the middle east this is one of the best understandings of that situation I've seen.

    8. Re:Prevention by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      I don't dispute that, but removing all people is definitely a way of removing all people problems.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    9. Re:Prevention by manu0601 · · Score: 1

      The "costs" of the never ending wars are much higher than decisively bombing and killing your enemy

      The only problem left on the table now is understanding who is your enemy. Or maybe making sure you have one.

  4. Novel Idea: Don't Shit In Your Water Table by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Trump comes to mind.

  5. You know what else would slash Cholera by rsilvergun · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ending the blockade. You know, the one by the Saudis being done with the weapons we sold them...

    --
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    1. Re:You know what else would slash Cholera by alvinrod · · Score: 1

      We're probably selling some weapons to Yemen as well. Not officially (the Saudis wouldn't like that) of course, but we'll avert our eyes just enough for the right gun runners to get through.

      You would think that the U.S. would have figured out that we don't need to get involved in expensive overseas conflicts we have little chance of winning. It's far easier to let the locals who've hated each other for generations take care of it for us while we sell them the means to do it.

    2. Re:You know what else would slash Cholera by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      You would think that the U.S. would have figured out that we don't need to get involved in expensive overseas conflicts we have little chance of winning. It's far easier to let the locals who've hated each other for generations take care of it for us while we sell them the means to do it.

      The problem is congress. We send all kinds of intelligence agents to literally every country in the world and then congress ignores what they come back to tell us about what the upcoming threats are, or how we can best handle the problems.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  6. Remind me: why is it inappropriate to call by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Remind me: why is is inappropriate to call those places shit holes?

    captcha: confirms

    1. Re: Remind me: why is it inappropriate to call by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      its in poor taste when they are shitholes primarily because you are doing everything to bomb them into the stone age except physically pressing the launch button

  7. up to four weeks in advance? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Cholera, ya, nasty stuff...

    Now tell me about this system that can pin point a specific amount of rain that will fall and pinpoint the areas it will hit within a 10km (six-mile) radius - up to four weeks in advance.

    Because our BEST weather forecasters can't seem get a rain call right 24 hours in advance. Maybe we need more cholera outbreaks to improve the system.

  8. If Haiti is any lesson by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The best way to prevent a cholera outbreak is to keep the UN away

  9. cholera by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    cholera only occurs because people shit where they ain't suppose to and folks downstream get it from drinking shit contaminated water and/or people don't wash their hands after scooping the shit out from between their fingers.

    this was what Trump was talking about.

    1. Re:cholera by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or in may happen when you bomb water treatment plants, power plants, water supply and sanitary infrastructure and the population has a weakened immune system due to starvation and malnutrition, and there is hot weather, and nothing works like garbage removal, and this is prolonged.

      We're so well fed and healthy, maybe we could eat nothing for three days while drinking that cholera water, then shit weirdly for a while and shrug it off.

  10. Misleading by 93+Escort+Wagon · · Score: 1

    The software did not lead to the drop in cholera cases.

    Last year there was a cholera outbreak in Yemen. So far there hasn’t been one this year, but officials are concerned there could be - so they’re using this software tool to hopefully predict and head off new outbreaks before they happen.

    --
    #DeleteChrome
  11. Maybe they should do something about the sewers by mveloso · · Score: 2

    It seems that while this is a pretty good band-aid, a better solution would be to fix the sewer system for the new peaks.

    1. Re:Maybe they should do something about the sewers by youngone · · Score: 2

      You should be aware that right now the Saudis are bombing Yemen into the stone age because they want a government that the Saudis don't like.
      The Saudis are using weapons the US sold them. (Also France and the UK).
      There is no point fixing the sewers.

    2. Re:Maybe they should do something about the sewers by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How could they possibly bomb Yemen into the stone age? It was already in the stone age.

    3. Re:Maybe they should do something about the sewers by Megol · · Score: 1

      When did you last visit?

  12. Re:uhm, the cause is the war. by youngone · · Score: 2

    ...having your country bombed to shit by a hostile dictatorship with the backing of the US government...

    Holy shit that's not even debatable, it's just a plain fact, and the comment gets modded Troll?

    You lot are all wankers. You're too shitty to even log in so you can be identified.

  13. Re:Leave those sand niggers to die by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We should send you over there instead, let them get the water out of your wrung-out faggot ass.

  14. Re: Maybe they should do something about the sewer by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    fix the sewers? why, did something happen to them like getting blown apart with american-made bombs? even after the us so helpfully pointed out civilian infrastructure to the saudis so they know where not to bomb?

  15. Re:These are important because downpours overwhelm by rtb61 · · Score: 2, Informative

    No the Yemeni hospitals in the defined zone are targeted by US satellites for the Saudi's to blow up with US and UK arms and munitions as a way to guarantee, really pissed of Yemeni will keep that war going pretty much for ever. If the is a war, the USA will be there, selling the tools of their apparently preferred trade, which takes precedence of infrastructure, education, health, even you lives. Think they will blame those cholera deaths on God, oh no, 100% Saudi and USA fault and nearly every family suffers in part, making that fury nationwide.

    --
    Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
  16. That's cool and all, but... by CharlesAKAChuck · · Score: 1

    It's hard to take any article about a 'computer system' seriously when it doesn't repeatedly stress how it was AI, quantum computing, or blockchains that actually made it work. /s

  17. Re:These are important because downpours overwhelm by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why do people automatically support anyone as long is it not the US. The people in the ME have created their own hell and blaming their woes on foreigners is SOP. Trump catches a lot of heat for talking to the leaders of countries the US is currently at odds with. All the people yammering for diplomacy instead of threats of war made a 180 degree turn when Trump tried diplomacy. How in the hell are you suppose to solve conflicts when your head of state is not allowed to talk with the enemy? For the record there has been no easement of the sanctions placed on Russia or NK. The Russian diplomatic staff kicked out of the country have not been allowed to return to the US. The US confiscated close to 30 million dollars worth of Russian real estate in the US. And lets be perfectly clear. All the actions currently being investigated concerning Russian campaign interference happened during the previous administration. The previous administration had evidence collected by the CIA, NSA, and FBI concerning the election. And Obama did nothing. He used the excuse that he did not want to effect the election. But he was evidently ok with Russia causing problems with the election. Obama did nothing because he knew without a doubt Clinton would win and all this Russian meddling would have never seen the light of day.

    And yes the US is the biggest arms dealer in the world but they could stop selling weapons to foreign countries tomorrow and Russia, Germany, France, Israel, Iran, and China would fill the void within a couple of days. And yes the US national security agencies conduct foreign operations that attempt to protect US interests. The US could disband their intelligence agencies tomorrow but just like the arm sells the other countries would not stop any of their actions. The biggest absurdity today is that a small but vocal group of US citizens want it's intelligence agencies to become more transparent. That's right! The morons are so focused on harming the US ability to hold it's own against the world that they don't have time to lookup clandestine in the fucking dictionary.

    US actions do not happen in a vacuum. The constant badgering and complaints against the US from the "international community" have created a US versus the world in the minds of regular US citizens. Their open disdain and constant insults helped push Trump into the Oval Office because quite frankly the US have never really cared about things happening in other parts of the world but now they do not care at all and the maniac in the Whitehouse is making sure the rest of the world know its time to re-shuffle the deck and examine if the current alliances and trade policies are really in the US best interest. Trump will be gone soon and the next President can play nice once again but for now the world deserves Trump.

  18. Worrying about cholera is pointless by mveloso · · Score: 1

    In that case, why are they worrying about cholera?

    Instead, they should use AI to figure out where the bombs will go and actively avoid those areas.

  19. Re:These are important because downpours overwhelm by Megol · · Score: 1

    Why do people automatically support anyone as long is it not the US

    We don't.

  20. Re:These are important because downpours overwhelm by unixisc · · Score: 1

    The point is that US foreign policy has been based on what it was during the Cold War, and just like things never change in Washington in other areas, they didn't change in foreign policy either. For instance, take NATO. Once the Cold War was over, there was no need for NATO as a counterblast to Russia. Indeed, in the 1990s, Russia actually wanted to join NATO, but was disallowed. This was during Boris Yeltsin, not Putin, so no one can claim that Russia was being aggressive then. If anything, NATO was, by its unilateral wars against Serbia trying to dismember not just Yugoslavia, but Serbia as well.

    On the issue of Yemen, what one has there is an alien vs predator situation: Shi'ite Houthis backed by Iran vs Sunnite Arabs backed by the Saudis and their neighbors. There is really nothing to choose b/w them, and as far as arms go, the Saudis have been shopping from the US ever since the end of the Obama administration. During the Obama administration, the Saudis felt threatened, particularly by the Iran deal, so once Trump came to power, they started arming themselves to the teeth. And the Houthis too have managed to give as good as they gotten - w/ missiles managing to hit Riyadh airport. I'm all for everybody - US, Russia, China, et al selling both sides whatever weapons they want so that they can finish off each other, and leave the rest of the world alone. And unlike Syria, there is no route for Yemenis to flee to Europe, and Somalia ain't that attractive to them either!

  21. Desert scorpion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "At the middle eastern restaurant!"