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Machines Are Going To Perform More Tasks Than Humans By 2025 (cnbc.com)
In less than a decade, most workplace tasks will be done by machines rather than humans, according to the World Economic Forum's latest AI job forecast. From a report: Machines will overtake humans in terms of performing more tasks at the workplace by 2025 -- but there could still be 58 million net new jobs created in the next five years, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said in a report on Monday. Developments in automation technologies and artificial intelligence could see 75 million jobs displaced, according to the WEF report "The Future of Jobs 2018." However, another 133 million new roles may emerge as companies shake up their division of labor between humans and machines, translating to 58 million net new jobs being created by 2022, it said. At the same time, there would be "significant shifts" in the quality, location and format of new roles, according to the WEF report, which suggested that full-time, permanent employment may potentially fall. Some companies could choose to use temporary workers, freelancers and specialist contractors, while others may automate many of the tasks. New skill sets for employees will be needed as labor between machines and humans continue to evolve, the report pointed out.
Name one job that doesn't use a machine? Sure, most require a human to operate machines. A computer is a machine, a can opener is a machine, a typewriter is a machine... almost every job already requires a machine.
Now, automated machines is a different thing- they might not have replaced humans yet but even coopers and blacksmiths in ye olde medieval Europe used machines, Machines have been around since man put a stone in a sling.
"That's the way to do it" - Punch
The question, of course, is what the humans will do when there half as many jobs. Our economic system is based on the concept that a human who wants to work can find a job.
The obvious solution would be for jobs to work fewer hours. But the economic system seems to have no way to implement that-- what actually happens is that the few who have jobs are overworked and working late every day, while the rest who don't have jobs just stop looking (and hence are removed from the "unemployment" statistics)
Ok, 58M new jobs, for how many people becoming adults worldwide in the same timeframe?
But who will work the elevators?? Think of the ethnics!!
But HOW MANY jobs are created? How many are destroyed?
You DONT KNOW. You're just talking OUT YOUR ASSHOLE.
APK is so mentally ill that he posts this spam, then comes back minutes or hours later to accuse himself of impersonation. He really has gone nuts this time.
The Amish frown upon your mechanization English.
Fuck youre an ignorant cunt.
The tools that came out of the DevOps revolution are now going enterprise-wide. It's only a matter of time before most SA jobs become dead-end and then are eliminated. Organizations no longer need a bunch of Unix or Windows admins who are basically power users who can follow instructions. We've circled back a generation to where to be a SA who gets paid well and has job security you'll need to be able to script that system like a boss.
Here is a $100 bet I'll happily make with any "Robots/AI/Illegal Aliens/Whatever are going to take our jobs" people:
Pick any industry sector you like. Any industry at all. I'll bet a $100 to anyone that there will be more people working in that industry in 10 years than are working in that industry today.
Note: This is not about specific jobs. For example, "Travel Agent" is a job. If you wanted to choose "Travel Industry", I'll happily accept the bet.
all cars and trucks have foreign components or are foreign made. Yet their sales, marketing, maintenance and use create jobs domestically.
technology creates jobs, some people can't get that truth into their obtuse skulls.
that truth hasn't changed in 300 years, and will not change
...this has already happened.
I mean are they counting robotic car assembly as "workplace tasks"? What about assembly line QA by image recognition? Is that a "workplace task"?
To vaguely defined to be much more than bullshit click bait.
In the 10 years i've worked in automation, and 8 years of studying it, not a lot has changed. I see that car manufacturers are quite on the edge with automation and they still require huge amounts of people. Electronics could be further, but they are all produced in china and they still use massive amounts of people. Not even half of "easy to automate" jobs have been automated and the rest is going to be a steep uphill battle.
c6gunner your FAKEname's on a post impersonating me & worse is you altering /. user's words https://linux.slashdot.org/com... as I challenged you to show you do better work and you can't after you tried to mock me you hypocrite LYING loser https://linux.slashdot.org/com... .
* You're online FAKENAME trash c6gunner & a childish dishonest punk.
(PUTTING WORDS IN MY MOUTH TOO saying what I don't (on spectre/meltdown) https://tech.slashdot.org/comm... )
APK
P.S.=> Impossible to deny FACT of your FAKEname (for your FAKE wasted lie of a so-called life) on that 1st post link above you unbelievable loser... apk
Please robots, come and take my job! Heaven knows I don't want it.
I'll sit back and get fat (well maybe fatter) and happy!
c6gunner you're proven to impersonate apk https://linux.slashdot.org/com... and you altered slashdotters quotes there also further proving you project your own mental illness in your false statement now.
RTFS - " but there could still be 58 million net new jobs created in the next five years, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said in a report on Monday". That's the second half of the first sentence and you were apparently too lazy to read even that far... What, did a robot steal your job of reading?
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
Still stinks like madeup chickenshit to me.
Tech creates jobs alright, but it also destroys jobs. Also, there's no historical evidence to backup the notion that the net balance is positive.
Once "real people" like lawyers find themselves replaced overnight by AI there will be real movement on basic income, but until then China & America have an excess couple billion plebs they need to get rid of in a tidy war. Expect the gay chink soldiers to all die in a nuked invasion of Taiwan. BIGLY.
I am APK the great "LORD of HOSTS", a.k.a. AlecStaar from ArsTechnica or Alexander Peter Kowalski in meat space.
See subject & APK Hosts File Engine 2.0++ 64-bit for Linux h t t p : / / I . a m . a . f u c k i n g / a s s h o l e . r e t a r d . z i p (remove spaces between characters & download).
I am the godlike creator of various GUI front-ends for other people's configuration files.
Don't call me out on anything as I will state that you are a webmaster and that I cut off your revenue stream.
You must be conspiring with the Jews and Soros if you disagree with me.
Mistaking mockery and parody for impersonation is how I think people flatter me because I can't possibly understand that they detest me.
See me lash out at one person for 2 weeks straight and claim everyone who mocks my retarded ass is actually them.
Bask in my debilitating mental illness
Hear me tell stories about me living large drinking miller lite in my ramshackle duplex with a roommate at age 54.
Watch me spew some word salad because I can't string 2 words together in a coherent manner.
I just don't understand why every site I post on everyone makes fun of me, it can't be because I am a shit stick but instead because they are all Ne'er-do-well SOYboy Jealous JOWIEs.
Witness my descent into madness
APK
no evidence?? Haha, the graph of percentage of tech enabled jobs has done nothing but go to the sky over 300 years. most the jobs at my employer would not exist without tech. for that matter, the business itself could not exist without tech.
tech creates jobs, history proves it
c6gunner your FAKEname's on a post impersonating me & worse is you altering /. user's words https://linux.slashdot.org/com... as I challenged you to show you do better work and you can't after you tried to mock me you hypocrite LYING loser https://linux.slashdot.org/com... .
* You're online FAKENAME trash c6gunner & a childish dishonest punk.
(PUTTING WORDS IN MY MOUTH TOO saying what I don't (on spectre/meltdown) https://tech.slashdot.org/comm... )
APK
P.S.=> Impossible to deny FACT of your FAKEname (for your FAKE wasted lie of a so-called life) on that 1st post link above you unbelievable loser... apk
Do you think your wealthy overlords are going to keep you around when a robot can code generic web services or them, schedule their appointments, shine their shoes and do their groceries? Especially when without you around, that will mean 99% less people to feed, entertain, and share Earth with? Wake up and prepare for it to get ugly.
is that it's an excuse to make the developers pull double duty as sys admins. It also lets companies take jobs that used to require little more than a high school diploma, declare them as "Developer" jobs in need of an advanced degree and bring in H1-Bs to take them. Basically, it's longer hours and lower pay for everyone.
Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
I know me and 20 (4 maintain now) engineers automated 500 white collar bank workers (mortgage lending portfolio review) out of a job in Chicago with a ETL pipeline, java and Cassandra. What it really took was regulatory change in the sector and boom computers could do automatically something humans by regulation had to have a hand in prior.
The Amish use machines ,,, what do you think a plough is? It is irrelevant that it is horse powered. You are the ignorant one.
All so-called 'news' like this does is spread FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt), and as such is just clickbait. While there's this so-called 'news story', there's also this so-called 'news story' that is diametrically opposed to it.
Just IGNORE all of it, none of it means ANYTHING.
Business will continue as per usual. Billions of people will not suddenly be replaced by robots, AI isn't going to cause The Apocalypse, and so on, and so on.
All of this shit is just distractions from the things that will actually fuck up your life: shitty politicians doing shitty things to your government, human-caused climate change making the world less habitable, and shitty corporations progressively more and more screwing you over and using you like a toilet.
In less than a decade, most workplace tasks will be done by machines rather than humans
That was true a long time ago depending on how you parse the word "tasks". If a calculation is a task then computers do untold trillions of tasks every second - far more than what people do. We're a species of tool makers. It's hardly a surprise that our tools make us more productive.
I'd anticipate a growing shift to automation and intelligent business systems over the next 10 years, but I don't think the pace is going to be as fast as predicted. Technology always moves faster than society, and businesses usually adopt new tech when it is convenient for them. In the late 90s, the pundits claimed any business not on the internet was doomed, and then the dot-com bubble burst and people realized only some businesses benefit from e-commerce. Shipping 50lb. bags of dog food over the internet was a bad idea (ask Pets.com). The same thing will occur in this new wave of manufacturing and automation. There will be early adopters who try out the tech and see where reality meets the hype. Once other companies see what those early adopters are able to accomplish (and the money they're making), they'll gradually transition as well. I once thought that by the early 2020s truck drivers and other driver professions would be out of work. It now turns out that self-driving vehicles aren't as far along as once thought, and automated trucks won't likely be out in force until much closer to 2030 or later.
Pick any industry sector you like. Any industry at all. I'll bet a $100 to anyone that there will be more people working in that industry in 10 years than are working in that industry today.
You'd win that bet in a lot of industries but not all of them because it depends heavily on what definition of the word "industry" you use to define a particular industry. Industry can be a rather vague and subjective term so you have to be clear about what your definition is. It's part of what makes anti-trust regulation difficult because to determine if a company is a monopoly you first have to define what industry you think they monopolize. Sometimes this is easy but sometimes it's incredibly hard to pin down.
For example is PC operating systems an industry or should we use a definition of industry that applies to all general purpose computing devices? In the former definition Microsoft is arguably a monopoly but in the later it clearly is not. The consequences of these sorts of (sometimes subjective) choices are not trivial.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Comment removed based on user account deletion
I don't see it because every little thing a person does is complicated and it will take a lot of time to teach a machine to do and the machine that can do it cost a lot of money. Machine will only do simple repetitive functions.
I myself can think of four or five new jobs that will be created but I'm not telling you. If you had any creativity you would be thinking about this and positioning yourself but you don't and you won't.
Duh...?
We have: ...
- Machines doing ice dislocating (fridge)
- Machines doing ice transportation (fridge)
- Machines doing ice selling and buying (fridge)
- Machine doing coding (compiler)
- Machine delivering messages to distant cities (email)
You probably got the point I hope? It is estimated that modern humans have machines doing the work of over 100 people already (just delivering mail to another country would be hell of a job by foot). So when they say more tasks than humans, do they mean what they say or are they comparing to the level or year 2018 or what?
AI and robots will take a lot of jobs. But there will be more jobs created as a result.
Agreed. The whole fear of AI and robots seems to have little basis in evidence and seems more like linear extrapolation run amok.
Consider farming. Today, very few people are actual farmers.
Quite a lot of people are actual farmers. About 31% globally or around a billion people globally. Where your statement is correct is in rich industrialized countries which are comparatively automated but even then it is only a relative statement. In the US there are currently several million farm workers which isn't a trivial number even today. The most labor intensive farming has (like other industries) moved to locations with cheap labor when possible while industrialized economies utilize quite a lot of automation very much like manufacturing. The industry is growing even while it's share of total employment falls. The automation is exactly what enables these economies to do something other than mostly just farming.
You probably don't actually know a person who has ever plowed or harvested a field.
Not only do I know people who have done those things I have both friends and family that own farms and I live in an area where farms are common.
Define task. Define machine.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Imagine an almost horizontal line, being the average perceptual and intellectual capacity of a person, or if you like, the average intelligence-guided physical action capacity of a person. A complex mishmash of capability that is a little hard to quantify, admittedly, but that's why I said "imagine". It's a thought experiment, with some simplifications.
The line is almost horizontal because human innate capability improves noticeably on evolutionary timescales (100,000s to millions of years).
Now this human capability line actually starts to curve upward a bit, as human cultural memes develop, like education, external information storage, reliably complex communication between people and generations. So human capability, in recent centuries trained by better-informed minds, starts increasing faster than body evolution and brain evolution would seem to support without all the extra information system evolution.
Now imagine a horizontal line that starts well below the human line. This is the "independent-of-human-wielders" capability of artificial tools and machines invented by humans. That line stays really low for a long time, because all such tools/machines needed total human guidance to do their thing, for centuries. Then with the industrial revolution, increasingly automated machines did a lot with less human supervision but still needed a lot of repair, care, and tending by humans. And other humans were needed to manage and calculate about the economic processes supported by those partly automated machines.
So jobs were created as jobs were destroyed, and productivity per person improved. The line of machine capability curved upward a little bit, with the industrial automation.
But now imagine rapidly advancing computer-algorithm-guided machinery, including calculating and modelling machinery, and physical-process machinery. And imagine that the algorithms are increasingly crafted to train themselves and learn and model their environment themselves (still a way to go, but that's clearly the direction and rapid progress is being made.) Imagine that computer perception and cognition, initially in limited-scope areas, but generalizing rapidly with new AI inventions, becomes comparable to human cognition, or in some areas, exceeds it. And imagine that computer cognition guiding increasingly flexible physical-process systems (robotics, automated assembly lines, automated transportation, 3D printers, robot building-assembly systems, etc. There is still a need for human engineering to improve these systems, and manage their orchestration at the top level, and there is still a need for a few repair people for tasks still too variable for the AI and robots to handle, but in general, this whole thing can run by itself and produce stuff and move stuff and people.
So what we see is the line of general capability (intellectual and physical) of the AI and automated systems/processes starts to curve up rapidly, at the speed of the collective human scientific and engineering advances that invent this technology.
At some point, the machine line crosses above the human line, at which point the average job is more cost-effectively, and often just more effectively, done by the AI and automated system.
So no, more interesting careers will not come along with this, except for the odd uber-genius who can keep up. The automated (economic) system (as a whole) will just start to run itself with less and less human intervention.
The lines cross, and then everything is different. This doesn't happen suddenly, but blurred over a 50ish or whatever year period, but we are now well into that period. Our thinking, and economic modelling, about all of this will have to change profoundly. Anywhere your micro-economic or macro-economic model talks about an effect on human labour or income or spending power, cross that out and insert "machine" instead.
Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
Technology creates jobs, until the technology starts becoming more capable by itself, in more and more areas, than people, then technology creates more jobs for other technology, not for people. That's what people can't seem to get into their obtuse skulls.
There seems to be one of those "denial" psychological problems going on. It's too terrible to contemplate, therefore we'll deny it.
Global warming due to human GHG emissions. DENIED. Check.
Job reduction trend due to better-than-human automation. DENIED. Check.
Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
DEEZ NUTS.
What percentage of all the able adults in your neighborhood, or your city, would be capable of doing those jobs, in your estimation? What percentage of them will be needed, to work on those new jobs you're thinking of?
Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
This assumes enough companies will want to make an investment in automation instead of just taking short term profits. It also assumes upper management even understands what automation is.
One example of why I ask the question is how many organisations still use Windows XP.
Will it become a case of the companies with human jobs will not be the ones you would want to work for anyway because they are so behind in technology?
c6gunner your FAKEname's on a post impersonating me & worse is you altering /. user's words https://linux.slashdot.org/com... as I challenged you to show you do better work and you can't after you tried to mock me you hypocrite LYING loser https://linux.slashdot.org/com... .
* You're online FAKENAME trash c6gunner & a childish dishonest punk...
(PUTTING WORDS IN MY MOUTH TOO saying what I don't (on spectre/meltdown) https://tech.slashdot.org/comm... )
APK
P.S.=> Impossible to deny FACT of your FAKEname (for your FAKE wasted lie of a so-called life) on that 1st post link above you unbelievable loser... apk
Automation makes the guy who builds the robot more productive. It makes the accountant who runs the billing more productive. It's not a quantum shift, it's a small incremental one.
"See, I told you so!"
-Every Horse
10% of the population has an IQ below 85, less than even the Military would enlist.
In the US that means 30 million people who can do absolutely nothing to help themselves or anybody else.
What is the solution? More prisons? More dope?
there are jobs people with such "IQ" can do. you are looking for excuses to turn someone into a dependent adult baby, are you a big city Democrat needing bigger voting bloc?
Amazing the huge percentage of people here who believe the lie that technology causes decrease in employment. It causes change in types of jobs, but ALWAYS creates more net jobs.
Consider computer automation, which over the last 50 years has been just as widespread as agricultural automation.
In the 1950s, when Parkinson wrote his great paper, bureaucracies like banks and tax offices were almost completely unautomated (yes, there were punch cards). Rows of clerks with mechanical adding machines reconciling banks statements and tax returns.
Yet bureaucracies have grown, not shrunk, as a result of all this automation. The reason is that while the human gut can only consume a certain amount of food, human society has an unbounded appetite for rules and regulations, processes and procedures.
So as automation frees up labor, bureaucracies will grow. Because they can. As predicted long ago by Parkinson.
"Your kind" ('not-men') ever wonder WHY women don't want you? Don't: You're UNIDENTIFIABLE anonymous weezils STALKING me (such 'bravery & courage' (lol, not) IS why (& you KNOW it constantly proving it, lol)).
* It has to BLOW to be you... a reject & a WORM, lmao!
(I mean - not ONLY are you DO-NOTHING lazy, stupid, uneducated chattering "ne'er-do-well" DOLTS, but you're pussies too, ROTFLMAO!)
APK
P.S.=> NO joke - it IS why "your kind" has to HIDE from guys like me that actually DO good things w/ relative ease... apk
Since McDonald's, alone, already serves about 9 million pounds of fries per day, I am surprised that it has taken this long for machines to overtake humans in number of tasks performed.
Past performance does guarantee future results...