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Predictions On Linux Growth
irix sent us
a link to an ABCNews Article on Linux's Growth.
and says
"I thought the predictions and overall analysis were
pretty good coming from CNET. I was really amused to see a
Microsoft banner ad on the top of the page :)"
I don't think Linux will ever be ontop any time soon but who cares I root for the the underdog anyways. We have something MS will never have, we have a huge community, a big family if you choose to call it that.
http://www.techni-cor.com/redhat
Unix is very complicated. It is also very flexible. The complexity and the flexibility go hand in hand- the more flexible the system becomes, the more knowledge is needed to maintain it. No one will deny that flexibility is good, and is Unix and Linux's greatest strength vs. NT. That doesn't mean that the accompanying complexity is also a good thing. It's just a nasty side effect that needs to be minimized.
The amount of time and money needed to train people on a system is very real cost of using that system. In this area, NT has a far lower cost than Linux and Unix. Time wasted due to lack of flexibility or instability is also a cost of using that system. Unix and Linux have a lower cost than NT in this area. So what is the total cost of using either system? I guess that depends on the context: who's using it, what are they using it for, and how much training is required (or how much extra money are you going to have to shell out for a guru).
The moral of the story is: it ain't that simple. Too much platform advocacy takes the shortest path of reasoning to the predetermined goal (my platform is the best, something else sucks, etc. ad nauseum). It doesn't do anyone any good to combat (perceived) FUD with FUD.
Also does it count the number of books sold that come with Linux CDs. This is how I first bought it.
...Microsoft's non-support of Linux is an obstacle...
To most of the people on here, Microsoft's non-support of Linux is an advantage!
"Linux shipments will grow 25 percent over the next five years, compared to 12 percent
growth for all server operating systems and
10 percent growth for all client operating
systems, IDC reports."
I love sales figures. To get a sales figure, all you need is a VP of marketing, a doctor, a flashlight, and some rubber gloves.
"The level of expertise needed is very high, the
installation process is not simple, nor is
getting it to recognize all the devices,
because obscure devices don't have Linux
drivers," he said, adding: "This is all being
worked on."
Microsoft got where it is by making things computer-clueless people understood. There is something to be said for making things simpler. If you want to mass market a software product, making it dumb is more important then making it stable. Anyone who disagrees with this opinion should go count the number of zeros in Bill Gates' net worth.
Linux's other problem is that it has no real awareness among the ignorant masses. Most people who buy a computer just know, "Windows 98". This is because Linux seems to dislike advertising. Linux is just a _better_ operating system. But the problem is, no one knows it.
"Consumers purchase PCs based on the breadth of
applications available, Kusnetsky noted,
and Linux does not yet support many of the
most popular desktop applications, such as
the Microsoft Office suite."
or, as I would like to say,
'If you pimp it, they will come'.
This will change too, but unlike the advertising, this is just going to happen because of market pressure. It may sound bass-ackwards, but products follow advertising. All the geeks want new toys, and as the mass market discovers Linux, software development will create apps for it. They'll make even more once there are more then geeks playing with it.
When Linux is made in such a way that it can be easily understood, then advertises in a method that gets national attention and explains what it is, Microsoft will crumble. They're already taking a chunk out of NT, but they _need_ to have a simple, viable kernel that can compete with the 9x behemoth. When that market is tapped, _maybe_ these sales figures will resemble the truth.
I don't think Linux will ever be ontop any time soon...
On top of what? Linux is already on top of the Web Server OS market. Will soon be on top of the Server OS market. Now, if we're talking about the desktop PC market, Linux will not be dominating that any time soon. But that's more due to human resistance to change (we'll take the evil we're familiar with over the good we're unfamiliar with) than it is to technical usefullness of the OS.
Microsoft got where it is by making things computer-clueless people understood. There is something to be said for making things simpler. If you want to mass market a software product, making it dumb is more important then making it stable. Anyone who disagrees with this opinion should go count the number of zeros in Bill Gates' net worth.
Gee, I suppose Apple must be currently the biggest company because the Macs were very easy to use way back in 1985, and they are still easier to use than Windows NT or 98. Wait, that didn't happen. Hmm, Windows was cheap though wasn't it? A PC was at least a couple hundred dollars cheaper than a Mac - even if you did have to run DOS. And it Windows 3.0 was a bitch to use in 1993 but it still outsold Macintosh.
Linux is free. I wonder if that will have any impact?
This is my biggest worry about the gnome project and other nice GUI projects for linux. Do we honestly want the average windows user to be able to use linux? Woulnd't that pervert the entire OS? Let the peons have their WinNT and Win98..
Linux doesn't neccesairily dislike advertisement it is just that there is no real coroporation behind linux as a whole to call nbc up and order 30 seconds of air time like microsoft can do. I suppose Redhat could do something like this but how effective would it really be?
http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/tech/CNET/cnet_ linux990331.html
This an ABC re-run of yesterday's CNET article which is re-write of the IDG press release posted a couple of days ago on slashdot.
and when all you care about is marketing, market share is GOD.
This ABC news story is just another example of how MOST people out there don't really see what is happening with the whole "Linux Movement". They see this "newcomer" to the OS arena, and assume they can analyze it just like they do MS's OSs.
The old method of determining a sofware product's worth was to see how much money it made for you. Money drove the whole product cycle and determined the program (OS, Word processor, etc) content.
Along comes Linux and now the functionality of the OS is determined (mostly) by tech people/programmers who want the best and most stable code.
It seems that these people need a new way of looking at Linux. Many people out there DO "get it", but many others don't. That is why I wouldn't flame ABC (or anyone else) for not presenting things right.
You should convey what free software means to you rather than telling someone they suck and don't know what they are talking about. Try to realize first that you have a Good Thing. They don't. Invite them to take part of it-- by telling them what is so good about Linux rather them what is so BAD about them...
Agreed, but just I need to take just one little chink out of your argument :). When he was talking about needing the high level of expertise, I think he was talking about Linux getting more desktop/client support, since there's already an unreal amount of growth in the server market. Desktop/client people normally aren't sysadminny types of people :)
The phrase "zero administation Windows" comes to mind.
Yes, I do agree that you shouldn't have to be a sysadmin to use Linux, but in the business server world, NT is doing very bad things in allowing clueless people to play sysadmin by clicking buttons and not really knowing what's happening inside of the box. I pray that that culture doesn't find its way into Linux.
dinner: it's what's for beer
That is exactly how I came to try linux. A co-worker simply kept talking about functionality and stability he enjoyed with Linux. I, in turn, have piqued the interest of several friends by speaking the same way. Fear of having to learn new applications (for desktop PC use) seem to be what is holding most of my friends back. But this, too, shall pass. :)
Andrew
Where did the article go?
-----
http://www.Windows2Linux.org (Submit your Links)
http://www.Windows2Linux.org (Submit your Links)
Everything y
http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/tech/CNET/cnet_ linux990331.html
NT at 38% server market? Only M$ claims that.
Maybe it's me, but my recollection was that NT
& Linux were neck & neck at around 25% with Linux
growing faster.
Anybody with better numbers, or a source of where
you got 'em, is invited to throw them in.
Exceeding the recommended torque is not recommended.
as if anybody with half a clue uses NT in an enterprise!
Exceeding the recommended torque is not recommended.
The IDC folks are only counting the number of Linux systems sold. What I'm wondering is whether this includes only those sold directly by Redhat, Caldera, etc., or whether they are also counting, say Debian shipments through LinuxMall, for instance. Anybody know?
This is a crock. I just installed win98 on my machine (it keeps the karma good with the game gods). The hoops I had to jump through were unbelievable. First, I have an old HP4020i CD. There aren't even win98 drivers for it. I had to go to the Advansys homepage and follow thier directions on how to edit the boot disk to get win98 to recognize the drive. That done, installation continued. It continued until the machine rebooted itself. First thing was that it wiped out my MBR. Ok, have to reinstall LILO, no big deal. Then it tried to load the drivers off of the cd that it couldnt read because the drivers for the cd are on the cd. Thats pure brillance.
I had to reboot into Linux, (reinstalled LILO while I was there) and copied the cd to the hard drive. These guys are telling people that Linux doesnt support obscure device drivers? Thats insane. I can grab advansys.i and the drivers are already in the kernel.
FUD pisses me off. The problem is that people trust the FUD throwers. There needs to be a forum where newbies or those interested can go and read the truth. ZDNet and others get a lot of exposure to the uninitiated that those who refute the pages don't. That needs to change.
Wow, I'm really rambling. I'll shutup now.
-- toolie
actually, i really like the concept of Linux World Domination. as long as i never have to buy a $5000 proprietary Linux Premium Customer Support package that would be the only way to get full source code, then i'm happy.
-- ken williams
who said the installation process for Linux is difficult? Redhat, Caldera, and Debian are EASIER to install than NT!
IMHO, the installs for Redhat and NT are about at the same dificulty level. The problem most people have with installing Linux is that they need to know what hardware the have in their PC. Most people don't know. Also, the reason obscure devices don't have Linux drivers IS BECAUSE THEY ARE OBSCURE!!! Obviously, people have been become so obsessed with having everything done for them, that they will completly overlook the power and stability of the Linux Operating System in order to have a cute little "start" button. Hmmm... looks like Kusnetsky learned about computers by reading "Windows 98 for Dummies". Which by the way, is a very good title, because you'd have to be an idiot to PAY for that crap.
Opinionated Law Student Strikes Again!
Ok, first of all, the fact that you need to be knowledgable to run a Linux server is a Good Thing. Does this author think that sysadmins should not have a high level of expertise? Second of all, Linux has no problem whatsoever supporting server hardware. In fact, it probably supports more SCSI and RAID hardware than NT does. AND, who said the installation process for Linux is difficult? Redhat, Caldera, and Debian are EASIER to install than NT!
I don't think this guy knows the difference between "Server" and "Home PC." Furthermore, he's been fed a load of FUD so thick you swim in it.
dinner: it's what's for beer