Reading up on the Wikipedia article on this guy...
But his thesis is that such events are fundamentally unpredictable. If he made a fortune, it means _he_ was able to predict it, well enough to profit for it. Which argues not that the events are unpredictable, but rather that his model is better.
His thesis is not that he can predict when Black Swans will happen. Just that eventually they will.
His trading method, which is definitely unorthodox, is to steadi
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Reading up on the Wikipedia article on this guy...
But his thesis is that such events are fundamentally unpredictable. If he made a fortune, it means _he_ was able to predict it, well enough to profit for it. Which argues not that the events are unpredictable, but rather that his model is better.
His thesis is not that he can predict when Black Swans will happen. Just that eventually they will.
His trading method, which is definitely unorthodox, is to steadi
Same trend with Keitai Manga in Japan, which is a subset of e-books.
It started with 60% to 70% of downloads being
1) downloaded at night
2) by women
3) erotic content
now it's grown to about a $300 million* a year industry and seems to be more diversified.
The model is typically that the first chapter is offered for free, and users are prompted to purchase if they wish to continue reading.
*http://www.soumu.go.jp/s-news/2008/080718_4.html
Funny stand-up comedy on the subject; Bill Hicks asking advertising and marketing folks to just kill themselves http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDW_Hj2K0wo