Exactly. I'm a computer professional and I don't trust computers for voting and counting votes. It's too easy to do stuff behind the veil of the interface that you have no idea is happening. Even if it's open source unless you personally vetted and loaded the software you have no idea if it's what you think it is or not.
Paper ballots and hand counting is something that anyone smart enough to mark a ballot can understand and it's easily scalable.
Unlike the bits in computer memory optical scan ballots can be recounted by hand if necessary. The error rate may not be zero but for most elections it's low enough to be below the threshold that would change an election.
Electronic voting machines are a solution looking for a problem. Good old paper ballots work just fine for elections and are easily recounted if necessary.
The problem with trying to blame El Nino/La Nina or the PDO or the AMO or other natural cycles for the warming is that none of them actually add or remove heat from the Earth system. They simply move it around to different places and in the long run their total effect is essentially zero.
I think you may be onto to something there. What I've heard is that the unlocking took place at Mach 1 when it should have been at Mach 1.4. The transition from subsonic to supersonic flight is often kind of bumpy.
Satellites "measure" temperature of nebulous areas of the atmosphere based on a model of microwave emissions of gases (primarily 02 I think). From that they calculate a temperature. Satellites have to make adjustments for a number of things. Orbital variation, degradation of the instruments, the angle of view of the surface, effects on the microwave emissions by clouds and the background being measured against, land elevation rising into the area of the atmosphere being measured and probably several other things.
Satellite temperature measurements and surface measurements are complimentary. They serve as a check against each other and so far what they show isn't that different.
HadCRUT definitely does include sea surface temperatures.
If you want to include all possible stations worldwide then BEST is your friend. That's what they did and their findings are significantly different than HadCRUT.
No, what the ACA actually says is they have to spend 80-85% of their premiums on providing health care. All of their overhead and net profits has to come out the the remainder.
More people means more risk, more risk means more cost,...
More people also means the risk gets distributed more widely as well which probably doesn't hurt. In the case of the ACA, since people who were formerly denied health insurance can not be now be denied it the risk may have gone up a bit but in general the wider risk is spread the better for everyone involved. Just look at all of the European countries with universal coverage whose cost per person is something like one half to two thirds of the cost in the US with substantially equal or better health care.
... and the cost of insurance has skyrocketed since the law was passed.
You're going to have to justify that statement. From what I've heard the rise in the cost of health care and health insurance has been at it's lowest rate in over a decade lately.
You must be kind of young. When I was a kid the top marginal Federal income tax rate was over 90%. JFK's tax reforms moved it down to a bit over 70%. Then Reagan dropped it to under 40%. Frankly we were better off with the high marginal tax rates.
AVOIDING insurance still remains the cheapest option in many cases.
As long as you remain healthy that may be true. If you happen to be one of the unlucky ones who develops cancer or multiple sclerosis or crashes your car uninsured then we all end up paying for you and the quality of care you get as an uninsured person is not as good as you otherwise would.
I agree with you that the ACA was a gift to the health insurance industry but it's still better than the situation before it was enacted. The evidence from all of the other comparable countries that have enacted universal health care is that you will get generally as good if not better care for half to two thirds of the cost we were paying. Yes, if you're young and healthy it's going to cost you more than you otherwise might pay but most people don't stay that way forever.
You're pretty behind the times. Much if not most of the code is available now. The NASA/GISS Model E, one of the main Global Climate Models is available here. The data and code for Michael Mann's original hockey stick graph are available here.
For a comment on the code in your original code see here.
The other studies didn't use Mann's methodology but developed their own. It's been shown that McIntyre's claim that random noise always creates a hockey stick graph was a result of cherry-picking some 100 cases out of 1000 examples of random noise for the most hockey stick like results.
How fucking stupid are you to have never investigated the claims yourself instead of just repeating what others have told you?
I'll wait until there is any evidence of an outbreak before I start panicking. As I've said before none of the people Thomas Eric Duncan was staying with including his fiance got sick even though he was mistakenly sent home the first time he went to the ER with symptoms. That tells me it's pretty difficult to transmit until someone gets very sick.
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Exactly. I'm a computer professional and I don't trust computers for voting and counting votes. It's too easy to do stuff behind the veil of the interface that you have no idea is happening. Even if it's open source unless you personally vetted and loaded the software you have no idea if it's what you think it is or not.
Paper ballots and hand counting is something that anyone smart enough to mark a ballot can understand and it's easily scalable.
Unlike the bits in computer memory optical scan ballots can be recounted by hand if necessary. The error rate may not be zero but for most elections it's low enough to be below the threshold that would change an election.
Electronic voting machines are a solution looking for a problem. Good old paper ballots work just fine for elections and are easily recounted if necessary.
The problem with trying to blame El Nino/La Nina or the PDO or the AMO or other natural cycles for the warming is that none of them actually add or remove heat from the Earth system. They simply move it around to different places and in the long run their total effect is essentially zero.
My point was that satellite measurements have their own issues and are not necessarily better or worse than ground based thermometer measurements.
I think you may be onto to something there. What I've heard is that the unlocking took place at Mach 1 when it should have been at Mach 1.4. The transition from subsonic to supersonic flight is often kind of bumpy.
Satellites "measure" temperature of nebulous areas of the atmosphere based on a model of microwave emissions of gases (primarily 02 I think). From that they calculate a temperature. Satellites have to make adjustments for a number of things. Orbital variation, degradation of the instruments, the angle of view of the surface, effects on the microwave emissions by clouds and the background being measured against, land elevation rising into the area of the atmosphere being measured and probably several other things.
Satellite temperature measurements and surface measurements are complimentary. They serve as a check against each other and so far what they show isn't that different.
HadCRUT definitely does include sea surface temperatures.
HadCRUT is the dataset of monthly instrumental temperature records formed by combining the sea surface temperature records compiled by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the land surface air temperature records compiled by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia.
If you want to include all possible stations worldwide then BEST is your friend. That's what they did and their findings are significantly different than HadCRUT.
You can plant all the trees you want but we're burning thousands of years worth of them every day. There's no way trees can keep up.
I hope they print the NIPCC on toilet paper because that's all it's useful for.
To be technical they said "up to 50 million." Even now the number is not zero.
What are you, 90 years old?
I think you meant that reply for ComputerGeek01.
They get to make 15-20% net profit.
No, what the ACA actually says is they have to spend 80-85% of their premiums on providing health care. All of their overhead and net profits has to come out the the remainder.
The problem with universal healthcare is that it lacks incentive for actually curing people and adds pressure to cut corners in their treatment.
It doesn't seem to work that way in the European countries that have universal health care.
More people means more risk, more risk means more cost, ...
More people also means the risk gets distributed more widely as well which probably doesn't hurt. In the case of the ACA, since people who were formerly denied health insurance can not be now be denied it the risk may have gone up a bit but in general the wider risk is spread the better for everyone involved. Just look at all of the European countries with universal coverage whose cost per person is something like one half to two thirds of the cost in the US with substantially equal or better health care.
You're going to have to justify that statement. From what I've heard the rise in the cost of health care and health insurance has been at it's lowest rate in over a decade lately.
And yet the US Dollar is still the strongest currency in the world.
You must be kind of young. When I was a kid the top marginal Federal income tax rate was over 90%. JFK's tax reforms moved it down to a bit over 70%. Then Reagan dropped it to under 40%. Frankly we were better off with the high marginal tax rates.
AVOIDING insurance still remains the cheapest option in many cases.
As long as you remain healthy that may be true. If you happen to be one of the unlucky ones who develops cancer or multiple sclerosis or crashes your car uninsured then we all end up paying for you and the quality of care you get as an uninsured person is not as good as you otherwise would.
I agree with you that the ACA was a gift to the health insurance industry but it's still better than the situation before it was enacted. The evidence from all of the other comparable countries that have enacted universal health care is that you will get generally as good if not better care for half to two thirds of the cost we were paying. Yes, if you're young and healthy it's going to cost you more than you otherwise might pay but most people don't stay that way forever.
Of course not. Weather models and climate models are two different things although there is some commonality between them.
Weather modeling is an initial values problem. Given the current conditions what is the evolution of weather going into the future?
Climate modeling is a boundary values problem. What is the envelope within which weather will be contained going into the future?
Once again, a call for net neutrality will ensue. All we really need is for the FCC to call them Common Carriers and apply the age old law.
It has already been applied to Telecoms and Utilities, just apply it to the ISP's and be done with this crap.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...
Can't mod you up so ... Amen brother! Amen!
I don't see why it should be a reason to be "proud".
Proud is kind of the opposite of being ashamed.
You're pretty behind the times. Much if not most of the code is available now. The NASA/GISS Model E, one of the main Global Climate Models is available here. The data and code for Michael Mann's original hockey stick graph are available here.
For a comment on the code in your original code see here.
The other studies didn't use Mann's methodology but developed their own. It's been shown that McIntyre's claim that random noise always creates a hockey stick graph was a result of cherry-picking some 100 cases out of 1000 examples of random noise for the most hockey stick like results.
How fucking stupid are you to have never investigated the claims yourself instead of just repeating what others have told you?
I'll wait until there is any evidence of an outbreak before I start panicking. As I've said before none of the people Thomas Eric Duncan was staying with including his fiance got sick even though he was mistakenly sent home the first time he went to the ER with symptoms. That tells me it's pretty difficult to transmit until someone gets very sick.