It is amusing to see so much comment about the iPhone' potential penetration into the market. The principles which come into play are simple. The hard part is to guess what people will like or dislike about the iPhone.
The principles are:
The best set of features means nothing if there is a single "pain" point for the buyer
Pain points can be: too expensive, a missing feature, or a feature which is unacceptable
Virtually all market surveys look for likes and miss the pain points
The best value proposition for an "improved" product is the removal of an existing pain point from the current selection of products without adding any new ones
Early adopters will tolerate a much higher pain level, but the volume sales require the average consumer who will not accept "pain".
The responses in this set of postings cover many positive and negative points about the iPhone. The positives are why someone will look at the iPhone. The negatives are the short circuits which will keep someone from buying.
So the question is what is the "spice" here? This is what creates the potential market. How many people buy a handheld PDA in order to browse the web? If this is as small of a market as it appears when I look at my broad range of contacts, the market is small and capturing any of it is of little consequence.
The general consensus from all of the feedback appears to be that the only large value proposition that is being delivered is the move from an iPod and regular phone to a single iPhone.
Non-iPod users have had VCast (I know it is nowhere as friendly as iTunes but it works for them) to give them MP3 capability with their phone. These people probably would not have paid the up charge to VCast if they had already had an iPod they liked.
So the market is a subset of iPod users who also have a phone. Think about this - this is a segmentation of the market, not a market growth. Worse yet this market is canibializing the regular iPod sales. Who needs a new iPod AND an iPhone?
What do these demographics look like? Probably the majority are in the 13 to 30 age range. This group is very interested in text messaging. So unless this is very easy, this group will view difficult text messaging as a true "pain" point regardless how well the iPod and phone work otherwise. If you read John C. Dvorak's comments on this, he claims that the keyboard function is just a pain.
So my prediction is that the iPhone will be another Newton. It is a great idea, but the pendants who are predicting a great release are not talking to the market who will have to ante up the big price while giving up text messaging. This age group will balk and resist.
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It is amusing to see so much comment about the iPhone' potential penetration into the market. The principles which come into play are simple. The hard part is to guess what people will like or dislike about the iPhone. The principles are: The best set of features means nothing if there is a single "pain" point for the buyer Pain points can be: too expensive, a missing feature, or a feature which is unacceptable Virtually all market surveys look for likes and miss the pain points The best value proposition for an "improved" product is the removal of an existing pain point from the current selection of products without adding any new ones Early adopters will tolerate a much higher pain level, but the volume sales require the average consumer who will not accept "pain". The responses in this set of postings cover many positive and negative points about the iPhone. The positives are why someone will look at the iPhone. The negatives are the short circuits which will keep someone from buying. So the question is what is the "spice" here? This is what creates the potential market. How many people buy a handheld PDA in order to browse the web? If this is as small of a market as it appears when I look at my broad range of contacts, the market is small and capturing any of it is of little consequence. The general consensus from all of the feedback appears to be that the only large value proposition that is being delivered is the move from an iPod and regular phone to a single iPhone. Non-iPod users have had VCast (I know it is nowhere as friendly as iTunes but it works for them) to give them MP3 capability with their phone. These people probably would not have paid the up charge to VCast if they had already had an iPod they liked. So the market is a subset of iPod users who also have a phone. Think about this - this is a segmentation of the market, not a market growth. Worse yet this market is canibializing the regular iPod sales. Who needs a new iPod AND an iPhone? What do these demographics look like? Probably the majority are in the 13 to 30 age range. This group is very interested in text messaging. So unless this is very easy, this group will view difficult text messaging as a true "pain" point regardless how well the iPod and phone work otherwise. If you read John C. Dvorak's comments on this, he claims that the keyboard function is just a pain. So my prediction is that the iPhone will be another Newton. It is a great idea, but the pendants who are predicting a great release are not talking to the market who will have to ante up the big price while giving up text messaging. This age group will balk and resist.