Second posting -- first one, I forgot to use plain text formatting. Sorry about that.
I've seen a lot of good analysis of the Democratic Super Tuesday race thus far, but haven't really seen anything comprehensive on the Republican side. So, I decided to write one myself. I suppose most people are largely ignoring it, because the Democratic race is far more exciting right now with McCain being all but guaranteed of winning the nomination. But, let's see if that's really the case...
The delegate count as of today sits at the following:
McCain - 97 Romney - 92 Huckabee - 29 Paul - 6 (note, this includes the Maine caucuses, which Romney won over the weekend)
So, there are 21 states that will be competing on Super Tuesday. Let's start with the WTA (Winner Take All) states. These are: Missouri, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Utah, and W. Virginia. Arkansas could be winner take all if someone wins greater than 50% of the vote, but I don't see that happening with Huckabee, so we assume it's not WTA.
Of these 10 states, 3 of them are caucuses, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. Montana (25 delegates) and North Dakota (26 delegates) look to be firmly in Romney's camp. More on West Virginia later.
Of the other 7 WTA states, Romney will win Utah (36 delegates), and McCain will win New York (101 delegates), New Jersey (52), Arizona (53), and Connecticut (30).
This leaves 3 states, Missouri (58), Delaware (18), and W. Virginia (Weird delegate system. They will hand out 18 delegates and then another 12 in a May 13th primary), which are very close. Missouri is going to be a tough one to call. Most of the latest polls show McCain with a slight advantage (3-5%), but both Romney and Huckabee are polling quite high. If enough conservatives move from Huckabee to Romney, Romney could be a surprise here. I'm going to keep this in the Too Close to Call column for now though. Delaware has only a single poll conducted in the last 3 months, and it has McCain with a 6 point lead over Romney with 10% unsure. I feel a little more comfortable giving this one to McCain, since Huckabee is only polling at 7%. Lastly, West Virginia, is a big unknown. I can't find a single poll for the state within the last year. Because it's a Caucus state, and caucus states tend to benefit those with the most money and organization, I'm going to give it to Romney. But, I really don't know about this one.
So, after the 10 Winner Take All States, the count for WTA states would be as follows.
McCain: 254 (New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware) Romney: 87 (Montana, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia) Huckabee/Paul: 0 Too Close Too Call: Missouri (58 delegates)
Now, we get into the "fun" states. Those that give proportional delegates based on percentage of vote. Unfortunately, the process is frustratingly different from state to state. So, I'm going to use a general rule of thumb, as follows, which will hopefully average out. The state winner gets all At-Large Delegates, State Party Delegates, and Bonus Delegates. The District Level Delegates are awarded to each candidate as a percentage of their total votes. So, for example, in California the state winner gets 14 delegates (10+3+1) and the other 159 delegates are split based on percentage. So, if McCain wins 50% of the vote, he'd get an additional 80 delegates. Romney with 25% would get an additional 40 delegates, etc... It's a little more complex than this, but for simplicities sake, I'm going to do it this way.
I'll go in alphabetical order...
Alabama (48) - 21 delegates are awarded by district and 27 to the winner of the state. McCain has a strong lead and should win this state, provided there isn't a max exodus from the Huckabee camp to Romney. I think there will be some, but not enough. McCain gets 27 for winning + 9 proportionally. Romney gets 6 and Huckabee gets 6.
Seemed timely what with this topic, so I thought I'd post my Republican predictions for tomorrow that I blogged earlier today:
I've seen a lot of good analysis of the Democratic Super Tuesday race thus far, but haven't really seen anything comprehensive on the Republican side. So, I decided to write one myself. I suppose most people are largely ignoring it, because the Democratic race is far more exciting right now with McCain being all but guaranteed of winning the nomination. But, let's see if that's really the case...
The delegate count as of today sits at the following:
McCain - 97
Romney - 92
Huckabee - 29
Paul - 6
(note, this includes the Maine caucuses, which Romney won over the weekend)
So, there are 21 states that will be competing on Super Tuesday. Let's start with the WTA (Winner Take All) states. These are: Missouri, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Utah, and W. Virginia. Arkansas could be winner take all if someone wins greater than 50% of the vote, but I don't see that happening with Huckabee, so we assume it's not WTA.
Of these 10 states, 3 of them are caucuses, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. Montana (25 delegates) and North Dakota (26 delegates) look to be firmly in Romney's camp. More on West Virginia later.
Of the other 7 WTA states, Romney will win Utah (36 delegates), and McCain will win New York (101 delegates), New Jersey (52), Arizona (53), and Connecticut (30).
This leaves 3 states, Missouri (58), Delaware (18), and W. Virginia (Weird delegate system. They will hand out 18 delegates and then another 12 in a May 13th primary), which are very close. Missouri is going to be a tough one to call. Most of the latest polls show McCain with a slight advantage (3-5%), but both Romney and Huckabee are polling quite high. If enough conservatives move from Huckabee to Romney, Romney could be a surprise here. I'm going to keep this in the Too Close to Call column for now though. Delaware has only a single poll conducted in the last 3 months, and it has McCain with a 6 point lead over Romney with 10% unsure. I feel a little more comfortable giving this one to McCain, since Huckabee is only polling at 7%. Lastly, West Virginia, is a big unknown. I can't find a single poll for the state within the last year. Because it's a Caucus state, and caucus states tend to benefit those with the most money and organization, I'm going to give it to Romney. But, I really don't know about this one.
So, after the 10 Winner Take All States, the count for WTA states would be as follows.
McCain: 254 (New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware)
Romney: 87 (Montana, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia)
Huckabee/Paul: 0
Too Close Too Call: Missouri (58 delegates)
Now, we get into the "fun" states. Those that give proportional delegates based on percentage of vote. Unfortunately, the process is frustratingly different from state to state. So, I'm going to use a general rule of thumb, as follows, which will hopefully average out. The state winner gets all At-Large Delegates, State Party Delegates, and Bonus Delegates. The District Level Delegates are awarded to each candidate as a percentage of their total votes. So, for example, in California the state winner gets 14 delegates (10+3+1) and the other 159 delegates are split based on percentage. So, if McCain wins 50% of the vote, he'd get an additional 80 delegates. Romney with 25% would get an additional 40 delegates, etc... It's a little more complex than this, but for simplicities sake, I'm going to do it this way.
I'll go in alphabetical order...
Alabama (48) - 21 delegates are awarded by district and 27 to the winner of the state. McCain has a strong lead and should win this state, provided there isn't a max exodus from the Huckabee camp to Romney. I think there will be some, but not enough. McCain gets 27 for winning + 9 proportionally. Romney gets 6 and Huckabee gets 6.
Alaska (29) - Caucus state with 26 going to the winner and 3 being split to winners of districts. Ron Pa
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Second posting -- first one, I forgot to use plain text formatting. Sorry about that.
I've seen a lot of good analysis of the Democratic Super Tuesday race thus far, but haven't really seen anything comprehensive on the Republican side. So, I decided to write one myself. I suppose most people are largely ignoring it, because the Democratic race is far more exciting right now with McCain being all but guaranteed of winning the nomination. But, let's see if that's really the case...
The delegate count as of today sits at the following:
McCain - 97
Romney - 92
Huckabee - 29
Paul - 6
(note, this includes the Maine caucuses, which Romney won over the weekend)
So, there are 21 states that will be competing on Super Tuesday. Let's start with the WTA (Winner Take All) states. These are: Missouri, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Utah, and W. Virginia. Arkansas could be winner take all if someone wins greater than 50% of the vote, but I don't see that happening with Huckabee, so we assume it's not WTA.
Of these 10 states, 3 of them are caucuses, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. Montana (25 delegates) and North Dakota (26 delegates) look to be firmly in Romney's camp. More on West Virginia later.
Of the other 7 WTA states, Romney will win Utah (36 delegates), and McCain will win New York (101 delegates), New Jersey (52), Arizona (53), and Connecticut (30).
This leaves 3 states, Missouri (58), Delaware (18), and W. Virginia (Weird delegate system. They will hand out 18 delegates and then another 12 in a May 13th primary), which are very close. Missouri is going to be a tough one to call. Most of the latest polls show McCain with a slight advantage (3-5%), but both Romney and Huckabee are polling quite high. If enough conservatives move from Huckabee to Romney, Romney could be a surprise here. I'm going to keep this in the Too Close to Call column for now though. Delaware has only a single poll conducted in the last 3 months, and it has McCain with a 6 point lead over Romney with 10% unsure. I feel a little more comfortable giving this one to McCain, since Huckabee is only polling at 7%. Lastly, West Virginia, is a big unknown. I can't find a single poll for the state within the last year. Because it's a Caucus state, and caucus states tend to benefit those with the most money and organization, I'm going to give it to Romney. But, I really don't know about this one.
So, after the 10 Winner Take All States, the count for WTA states would be as follows.
McCain: 254 (New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware)
Romney: 87 (Montana, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia)
Huckabee/Paul: 0
Too Close Too Call: Missouri (58 delegates)
Now, we get into the "fun" states. Those that give proportional delegates based on percentage of vote. Unfortunately, the process is frustratingly different from state to state. So, I'm going to use a general rule of thumb, as follows, which will hopefully average out. The state winner gets all At-Large Delegates, State Party Delegates, and Bonus Delegates. The District Level Delegates are awarded to each candidate as a percentage of their total votes. So, for example, in California the state winner gets 14 delegates (10+3+1) and the other 159 delegates are split based on percentage. So, if McCain wins 50% of the vote, he'd get an additional 80 delegates. Romney with 25% would get an additional 40 delegates, etc... It's a little more complex than this, but for simplicities sake, I'm going to do it this way.
I'll go in alphabetical order...
Alabama (48) - 21 delegates are awarded by district and 27 to the winner of the state. McCain has a strong lead and should win this state, provided there isn't a max exodus from the Huckabee camp to Romney. I think there will be some, but not enough. McCain gets 27 for winning + 9 proportionally. Romney gets 6 and Huckabee gets 6.
Alaska (29) - Caucus state with 26 going to th
Seemed timely what with this topic, so I thought I'd post my Republican predictions for tomorrow that I blogged earlier today: I've seen a lot of good analysis of the Democratic Super Tuesday race thus far, but haven't really seen anything comprehensive on the Republican side. So, I decided to write one myself. I suppose most people are largely ignoring it, because the Democratic race is far more exciting right now with McCain being all but guaranteed of winning the nomination. But, let's see if that's really the case... The delegate count as of today sits at the following: McCain - 97 Romney - 92 Huckabee - 29 Paul - 6 (note, this includes the Maine caucuses, which Romney won over the weekend) So, there are 21 states that will be competing on Super Tuesday. Let's start with the WTA (Winner Take All) states. These are: Missouri, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Utah, and W. Virginia. Arkansas could be winner take all if someone wins greater than 50% of the vote, but I don't see that happening with Huckabee, so we assume it's not WTA. Of these 10 states, 3 of them are caucuses, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. Montana (25 delegates) and North Dakota (26 delegates) look to be firmly in Romney's camp. More on West Virginia later. Of the other 7 WTA states, Romney will win Utah (36 delegates), and McCain will win New York (101 delegates), New Jersey (52), Arizona (53), and Connecticut (30). This leaves 3 states, Missouri (58), Delaware (18), and W. Virginia (Weird delegate system. They will hand out 18 delegates and then another 12 in a May 13th primary), which are very close. Missouri is going to be a tough one to call. Most of the latest polls show McCain with a slight advantage (3-5%), but both Romney and Huckabee are polling quite high. If enough conservatives move from Huckabee to Romney, Romney could be a surprise here. I'm going to keep this in the Too Close to Call column for now though. Delaware has only a single poll conducted in the last 3 months, and it has McCain with a 6 point lead over Romney with 10% unsure. I feel a little more comfortable giving this one to McCain, since Huckabee is only polling at 7%. Lastly, West Virginia, is a big unknown. I can't find a single poll for the state within the last year. Because it's a Caucus state, and caucus states tend to benefit those with the most money and organization, I'm going to give it to Romney. But, I really don't know about this one. So, after the 10 Winner Take All States, the count for WTA states would be as follows. McCain: 254 (New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware) Romney: 87 (Montana, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia) Huckabee/Paul: 0 Too Close Too Call: Missouri (58 delegates) Now, we get into the "fun" states. Those that give proportional delegates based on percentage of vote. Unfortunately, the process is frustratingly different from state to state. So, I'm going to use a general rule of thumb, as follows, which will hopefully average out. The state winner gets all At-Large Delegates, State Party Delegates, and Bonus Delegates. The District Level Delegates are awarded to each candidate as a percentage of their total votes. So, for example, in California the state winner gets 14 delegates (10+3+1) and the other 159 delegates are split based on percentage. So, if McCain wins 50% of the vote, he'd get an additional 80 delegates. Romney with 25% would get an additional 40 delegates, etc... It's a little more complex than this, but for simplicities sake, I'm going to do it this way. I'll go in alphabetical order... Alabama (48) - 21 delegates are awarded by district and 27 to the winner of the state. McCain has a strong lead and should win this state, provided there isn't a max exodus from the Huckabee camp to Romney. I think there will be some, but not enough. McCain gets 27 for winning + 9 proportionally. Romney gets 6 and Huckabee gets 6. Alaska (29) - Caucus state with 26 going to the winner and 3 being split to winners of districts. Ron Pa