I think a lot of you are misunderstanding odds... 1:20 means once in every 20 times, it's probably going to happen. Hence, if there's been 20 years, there should be at least one year where a plane had been hit. If there's been 20 days, it's likely that one of those days a plane was hit.. However, here we are some 7,300 days since 1989 and still not one plane has been downed by a meteorite. By those odds, we're past due on meteorite airline collisions.
Another possibility is that in the late 80's and early 90's the odds were higher... maybe 1:100 and as time has gone on, the probability only grows stronger since has yet to happen.
Either way, quit looking at things in terms of sharing space rather than occupying the same space. There's a 1:20 chance a meteorite will occupy our atmosphere at the same time a plane is in the sky... but to have a meteorite collide with a plane, it must occupy the same longitude and latitude, as well as altitude.. which adds more variables to the equation and increases the odds greatly. Sad Physists and Astronomers over looked this large detail..
Did a physists and an astronomer REALLY miscalculate these odds by using a 1 dimensional formula?
~90,000 flights worldwide on a dialy basis..
~3,000 meteorites which impact our atmosphere as estimated in article
~7,300 days in 20 years.
meteorites/day * day : flights/day * day
meteorites : flights
3:90, 1:30...
But assuming there's not that many flights per day and the odds are 1:20... that still is not accounting for longitutde, latitude and altitude of the aircraft and or the meteorite. Therefore, the 1:20 odds meerely represent the likelyhood that a meteorite and an airplane are travelling thru our skies at the same time. To be at the same lat, long and alt. is MUCH MUCH more unlikely... There's a greater chance it was electrical malfunction due to the storm cells. Heck, it's even greater chance the plane would have impacted and been broken apart by a decent size block of ice/hail in the clouds.. that's more probable than something speeding super sonic thru space to enter our atmosphere and nail the plane. That'd be like sniping of a wing of a gnat from 100 yrs away with a bb gun.
Slashdot Mirror
I think a lot of you are misunderstanding odds... 1:20 means once in every 20 times, it's probably going to happen. Hence, if there's been 20 years, there should be at least one year where a plane had been hit. If there's been 20 days, it's likely that one of those days a plane was hit.. However, here we are some 7,300 days since 1989 and still not one plane has been downed by a meteorite. By those odds, we're past due on meteorite airline collisions. Another possibility is that in the late 80's and early 90's the odds were higher... maybe 1:100 and as time has gone on, the probability only grows stronger since has yet to happen. Either way, quit looking at things in terms of sharing space rather than occupying the same space. There's a 1:20 chance a meteorite will occupy our atmosphere at the same time a plane is in the sky... but to have a meteorite collide with a plane, it must occupy the same longitude and latitude, as well as altitude.. which adds more variables to the equation and increases the odds greatly. Sad Physists and Astronomers over looked this large detail..
Did a physists and an astronomer REALLY miscalculate these odds by using a 1 dimensional formula? ~90,000 flights worldwide on a dialy basis.. ~3,000 meteorites which impact our atmosphere as estimated in article ~7,300 days in 20 years. meteorites/day * day : flights/day * day meteorites : flights 3:90, 1:30... But assuming there's not that many flights per day and the odds are 1:20... that still is not accounting for longitutde, latitude and altitude of the aircraft and or the meteorite. Therefore, the 1:20 odds meerely represent the likelyhood that a meteorite and an airplane are travelling thru our skies at the same time. To be at the same lat, long and alt. is MUCH MUCH more unlikely... There's a greater chance it was electrical malfunction due to the storm cells. Heck, it's even greater chance the plane would have impacted and been broken apart by a decent size block of ice/hail in the clouds.. that's more probable than something speeding super sonic thru space to enter our atmosphere and nail the plane. That'd be like sniping of a wing of a gnat from 100 yrs away with a bb gun.