The problem is that you dont have a clue about Iran and its people. Most of your key points are just false and I dont know how you came up with the underlying assumptions in the first place.
1. The demonstrators are not socially isolated. The movement draws its member from merely every social segement in Iran, which by the way explains why they gathered behind a guy who was at the forefront of the Islamization of the Republic in the 80s. Of course, the Iranian elite is more present on the web than any other social group. But that does not mean, that people without mobiles and internet access are not joining forces to overthrow that regime.
2. The deomonstrations take place everywhere in Iran! Just because the most videos are sent from Tehran doesnt mean that there is nothing happening in other cities, where Internet access has been restricted even more so.
3. Check your facts, the last revolution in Iran happened in 1979 BUT it started 1.5 years earlier. During that time, many were detained, obducted and executed. Ring a bell?
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The problem is that you dont have a clue about Iran and its people. Most of your key points are just false and I dont know how you came up with the underlying assumptions in the first place.
1. The demonstrators are not socially isolated. The movement draws its member from merely every social segement in Iran, which by the way explains why they gathered behind a guy who was at the forefront of the Islamization of the Republic in the 80s. Of course, the Iranian elite is more present on the web than any other social group. But that does not mean, that people without mobiles and internet access are not joining forces to overthrow that regime.
2. The deomonstrations take place everywhere in Iran! Just because the most videos are sent from Tehran doesnt mean that there is nothing happening in other cities, where Internet access has been restricted even more so.
3. Check your facts, the last revolution in Iran happened in 1979 BUT it started 1.5 years earlier. During that time, many were detained, obducted and executed. Ring a bell?
The correct answer to the question "what will happen in Iran?" is: We dont know at the moment. There is simply no way to determine the future of such a complex social event even less so by watching stuff on youtube, twitter and facebook. Also see: http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/07/01/an-eyewitness-risks-his-life-to-tell-the-stories-of-tehran/