I came to the conclusion further through that the level of the US minimum wage is a huge contributor to the problem. Sure increasing the minimum wage may incentivise the roll out of automation. But one of the other commentators gave a figure of the median salary for customer service workers, and it was less than the minimum salary in Australia.
That said Australia doesn't have any form of tipping culture. And the costs of doing business here are higher, so its not in any way shape or form a perfect solution.
Also all work in Australia has to contribute 9.5% of the cash component to a mandatory investment scheme which you cannot access until you are retired. How it is invested is entirely up to you. You just can't spend it until you retire. Even with that in mind the take home cash component of minimum wage here was higher than the median figure listed.
Chemistry doesn't care whether you think my quads are shit or not. There simply aren't currently any batteries that allow the kind of current draw necessary for extended multirotor flight carrying anything other than the smallest of payloads.
You also clearly have never worked with any kind of robotics system. Dexterity was perhaps the wrong word. Flexibility of purpose then. When a robot system is used to manufacture cars EVERYTHING is identical. Everything is in the same place, every time. The system is able to handle small variations in position but thats about it. Clothing, cars, everything manufactured, is a process where assembly is reduced to the simplest repeatable movements.
As for fast food. Have you ever seen the processes that are in place to manufacture food items? They have entire buildings dedicated to making 1 single item. To replace fast food servers you are talking about some kind of flexible robot system that is capable of handling variable inputs to output a variable product. Sure you might be able the automate the assembly of a simple burger, but the cost of that system would be insane. And we are generations away from the autonomous harvester dumping lettuces into the self drive truck and dumped into the hopper at McAutoBurger.
I guess thats the thing. I don't see middle management, accountants, receptionist or clerical staff going anywhere any time soon. I also don't see the fast food workers going anywhere in the next 20 years. Of course I could be totally wrong in which case there will be massive economic collapse. But I just don't see it.
Some things are saturated markets. Soft drink manufacturing has been automated for ages. Assuming though that there was still a decent labour component (there isn't), then removing that would lower the cost of the drink. The real question is whether the market would consume more if the price was lowered or not. As for increasing their market, realistically you are looking at population growth, which is about 2.4 million per year in the US.
That said manufacturing is already highly automated. You don't have workers screwing the caps on soft drink bottles now. So that change has already happened. Bulk, low value manufacturers are already operating at market limits and no investor is expecting to be get more than a reasonable ROI. No one buys Coca cola shares expecting high growth numbers. They are looking for a steady profit level and dividend stream. There is no gutting those business any further. They are already as leans as possible.
Also you seem to be ignoring the fact that vast parts of the world are still developing. There are a billion Chinese that are raising their standard of living from subsistence farmers to something resembling the American lifestyle. All of them will want their cola and the iPhones, their cars and their aircons. Some of this will be supplied domestically by China, some will be imported. As their standard of living increases their tolerance of pollution and other impacts will lesson. This will increase the prices of their domestic produced goods and the US will be well placed to supply them with high grade goods manufactured in the US. Also there is the huge, highly profitable demand for knowledge based services which the US has a massive head start on developing.
Taking the international growth out of it though. Can you give me an example of a job that is at risk of disappearing to automation? The only ones I can think of are taxi drivers and long haul freight. Couriers won't be replaced as they are still needed to run the last 20m, they just won't be driving anymore. Same with shorthaul freight. I'm not seeing drone delivery stuff anytime soon unless there is a crazy break through in batteries (my quad copters last 2 minutes atm). Someone making your burgers? Maybe. I feel that would require a huge investment of capital at the moment, and dexterity that I haven't seen in robotics.
For a start they aren't here yet. Secondly they will be expensive when first released. So it will take a period of time for the capital invested in human driven fleets is used enough to warrant the purchase of the self driving vehicle.
But then seriously. Which jobs are truly at risk? Taxis. I'll give you that one. Long distance freight as well. But couriers? Nope. They just won't be driving any more. They will be the final 50m runner. Short haul freight? Nope, same a couriers.
Realistically what will happen is that self driving vehicles will reduce the cost of taxis and long haul freight. This will have the impact of increasing the number of taxi journeys taken as the reduced costs of travel increase the demand for that type of travel. Cheaper long haul freight will lower the price of postage. Which will have the effect of increasing the numbers of good ordered, potentially at the same time decreasing the average value of each parcel. This will increase the demand on final mile couriers, hence increasing work loads and jobs there.
Flat lining salaries however are a symptom of the US economy though. It isn't necessarily repeated throughout the rest of the developed world.
The US GDP per capita has continued to grow steadily, in a comparable arc to the UK, Canada & Australia, yet only the US . There is something out of kilter in the US economy that is seeing more and more wealth held by a smaller and smaller number of people. And I don't believe it is automation that is causing that.
One thing that is likely to be a factor though is minimum wages. The median wage you specified is actually lower than the minimum wage in Australia. It makes cost of doing business much higher, and that has its own negative impacts. But it also means wealth is more spread.
I don't see your statements as different. Unemployment in the developed world is low and has been falling since the banking collapse. In fact for most industries finding skilled labour is a significant challenge.
Doing more with the same number of people is exactly the same as achieving the same amount with less people. Either way it will free up available man hours. If labour is the primary driver of your business' costs then the removal of that cost will reduce the price of the product you sell. This will mean that, for the same level of income, more people will be able to purchase your items.
Automation is already everywhere. Where are the waves of unemployed people?
And yet from 1950 to today the US economy has added about 100,000 jobs a month, this is a net figure. Sometimes there are troughs when the number of jobs decrease. But there are also spikes in the other direction.
So in your example 7.6 million jobs were lost in manufacturing, however during that same period there would have been those 7.6 million jobs replaced with something else, but an additional 12 million jobs created.
I'd disagree with pretty much everything on your list. Pretty much every inventions purpose was to make something easier to do. As something becomes easier to do it reduces its labour demand.
Once things are created they are refined to fit new purposes. But the initial invention is meant to reduce human labour.
Power tools? Absolutely. A power saw does the work of 10 men with hand saws. Steam Engines? Again absolutely. It replaces horses, which reduced the demand for a whole swath of jobs. Mining and someone to shovel coal was no where near as labour intensive as horse care, control, breeding, and waste removal. Same comment for cars.
Automating is great for repetitive tasks. Where location is static. ie things like manufacturing. What it's not good at is anything highly mobile, complex or something that requires creative reasoning.
Sure the number of manufacturing jobs have decreased in the US. But the US has added an average of about 100k jobs a month, every month back to the 50s. This is despite the number of manufacturing jobs declining. http://www.tradingeconomics.co...
The big difference, I believe, is that religion does not hold the same sway in Australia as it does in the US. We just completed the 2016 census and the largest group are the non-believers. Atheism is on the rise, organised religion is collapsing here.
Could not disagree with you more. The police should be a part of your community, representative of your people. They shouldn't be separate. Hell where I am they even dropped the name force from the police here in 1988. It became the police service.
When I can drive through the poor parts of your country and not see so many people who look lost. There will always be people the society lets slip through the cracks. The difference is the numbers.
And it's not even a question of the amount of money that is transferred from the haves to the have nots. It is how it is delivered and the outcomes.
From where I sit, external to the US but in a first world country. It doesn't look like it is foreigners that are trying to take advantage of you as an American. It looks like it is a small section of the American people that are taking advantage of the rest.
You have no safety net for your people. There is nothing that stops people falling so far that crime, even violent crime, becomes the best option. Your healthcare system lets people rot. Your regulatory system is crazy complex and yet at the same time appears totally ineffectual in so many ways. Things like guns, abortion, gay marriage are all still topics for conversations rather than just settled and not even thought about.
As a people you seem to hate your own government. The whole guns argument of needing to rise up against your government is just crazy from an outsiders perspective. You claim history, but America is far from alone in having had a war for independence. Your police force are terrified of the people they are meant to look after, so they themselves have become terrifying.
Sure there are countries out there that would like to see the US gone. Comes of being a super power and stomping around in other peoples countries. But the vast majority of the world would actually like to see the US grow, be stable and prosper. Because weirdly enough, when the US is doing well, the rest of the world does well as well. It's not a I win you lose situation.
They haven't convicted him based on just the pacemaker evidence. The pacemaker evidence was used to build an argument that his alibi was bullshit.
Yes other activities could have created the same pacemaker output. But he didn't claim to be doing any of those. He claimed 1 thing, the massive pile of evidence, including but not limited to the pacemaker logs, said otherwise.
Would all SpaceX employees covered by those regulations or only those with access to certain knowledge. Ie could their sales team for example be non US-Citizen?
Just a comment on the price. Oil prices are reflective of global supply and demand, and unless there are geographic constraints on a particular supply, ie no access to export points, changing where you buy the oil from won't change the price.
Lets say the US decides to only buy its oil domestically, this would have the immediate effect of pushing the domestic price up and the international price down. But it would be a fleeting change, as anyone who was buying from the US will shift to the now cheaper international supply. This will raise the international price and lower the US domestic price. The net effect is that the price ends up exactly the same.
The only case where this wouldn't happen is if the US domestic production is unable to ramp to US demand. In which case US price will be higher and international lower.
This is one of the big issues with oil embargoes on target countries. They are never world wide. So while the US and its allies may refuse to buy oil from country X, China and Russia won't have the same problem. No price change, just customer change.
We are stuck on 13 for a while yet as we have a custom piece of software that has dependencies that get killed in the next version and I don't want to spend the resources moving off them at this stage. I will do it at some point but everything just works.
I have no issues with SystemD. If it works I'll run with it. I'm not deep enough in the day to day management of machines to have a real preference. As long as it works and doesn't cause me headaches.
The change was that if you, as a citizen of a visa waiver country (eg Australia), has been to Iran, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Somalia, Libya or Yemen on or after March 1 2011 you would no longer qualify for the visa waiver program. You would still be able to visit, you just need to get a visa first. And given that those countries don't have a huge western tourist trade that doesn't seem like a massive impost. What's more is it isn't targetting the people of that country, its people who are citizens of somewhere else that went there.
I run Linux Mint at work. It is a 30 person operation mainly dealing with editing of word documents. Libreoffice works fine for 99% of documents. For the small number that have an issue we have a windows machine sat in a corner and it can usually remove the weird ass formatting that is causing the problems.
That slight pain of a single windows machine failover is offset by true instant computer hotspot capability via ldap and nfs mounted homes.
As for updates, the machines are all still on Linux Mint 13 which is Maya which was released in 2012. Sure it is missing loads of updates, but no security ones.
And death to all cities of any size as they drown in a wave a sickness and horse shit. Cars may pollute but its in the air and blows away. The amount of horse shit from that number of horses will choke a decent size city in a matter of days.
Slashdot Mirror
I came to the conclusion further through that the level of the US minimum wage is a huge contributor to the problem. Sure increasing the minimum wage may incentivise the roll out of automation. But one of the other commentators gave a figure of the median salary for customer service workers, and it was less than the minimum salary in Australia.
That said Australia doesn't have any form of tipping culture. And the costs of doing business here are higher, so its not in any way shape or form a perfect solution.
Also all work in Australia has to contribute 9.5% of the cash component to a mandatory investment scheme which you cannot access until you are retired. How it is invested is entirely up to you. You just can't spend it until you retire. Even with that in mind the take home cash component of minimum wage here was higher than the median figure listed.
Chemistry doesn't care whether you think my quads are shit or not. There simply aren't currently any batteries that allow the kind of current draw necessary for extended multirotor flight carrying anything other than the smallest of payloads.
You also clearly have never worked with any kind of robotics system. Dexterity was perhaps the wrong word. Flexibility of purpose then. When a robot system is used to manufacture cars EVERYTHING is identical. Everything is in the same place, every time. The system is able to handle small variations in position but thats about it. Clothing, cars, everything manufactured, is a process where assembly is reduced to the simplest repeatable movements.
As for fast food. Have you ever seen the processes that are in place to manufacture food items? They have entire buildings dedicated to making 1 single item. To replace fast food servers you are talking about some kind of flexible robot system that is capable of handling variable inputs to output a variable product. Sure you might be able the automate the assembly of a simple burger, but the cost of that system would be insane. And we are generations away from the autonomous harvester dumping lettuces into the self drive truck and dumped into the hopper at McAutoBurger.
I guess thats the thing. I don't see middle management, accountants, receptionist or clerical staff going anywhere any time soon. I also don't see the fast food workers going anywhere in the next 20 years. Of course I could be totally wrong in which case there will be massive economic collapse. But I just don't see it.
Some things are saturated markets. Soft drink manufacturing has been automated for ages. Assuming though that there was still a decent labour component (there isn't), then removing that would lower the cost of the drink. The real question is whether the market would consume more if the price was lowered or not. As for increasing their market, realistically you are looking at population growth, which is about 2.4 million per year in the US.
That said manufacturing is already highly automated. You don't have workers screwing the caps on soft drink bottles now. So that change has already happened. Bulk, low value manufacturers are already operating at market limits and no investor is expecting to be get more than a reasonable ROI. No one buys Coca cola shares expecting high growth numbers. They are looking for a steady profit level and dividend stream. There is no gutting those business any further. They are already as leans as possible.
Also you seem to be ignoring the fact that vast parts of the world are still developing. There are a billion Chinese that are raising their standard of living from subsistence farmers to something resembling the American lifestyle. All of them will want their cola and the iPhones, their cars and their aircons. Some of this will be supplied domestically by China, some will be imported. As their standard of living increases their tolerance of pollution and other impacts will lesson. This will increase the prices of their domestic produced goods and the US will be well placed to supply them with high grade goods manufactured in the US. Also there is the huge, highly profitable demand for knowledge based services which the US has a massive head start on developing.
Taking the international growth out of it though. Can you give me an example of a job that is at risk of disappearing to automation? The only ones I can think of are taxi drivers and long haul freight. Couriers won't be replaced as they are still needed to run the last 20m, they just won't be driving anymore. Same with shorthaul freight. I'm not seeing drone delivery stuff anytime soon unless there is a crazy break through in batteries (my quad copters last 2 minutes atm). Someone making your burgers? Maybe. I feel that would require a huge investment of capital at the moment, and dexterity that I haven't seen in robotics.
For a start they aren't here yet. Secondly they will be expensive when first released. So it will take a period of time for the capital invested in human driven fleets is used enough to warrant the purchase of the self driving vehicle.
But then seriously. Which jobs are truly at risk? Taxis. I'll give you that one. Long distance freight as well. But couriers? Nope. They just won't be driving any more. They will be the final 50m runner. Short haul freight? Nope, same a couriers.
Realistically what will happen is that self driving vehicles will reduce the cost of taxis and long haul freight. This will have the impact of increasing the number of taxi journeys taken as the reduced costs of travel increase the demand for that type of travel. Cheaper long haul freight will lower the price of postage. Which will have the effect of increasing the numbers of good ordered, potentially at the same time decreasing the average value of each parcel. This will increase the demand on final mile couriers, hence increasing work loads and jobs there.
Flat lining salaries however are a symptom of the US economy though. It isn't necessarily repeated throughout the rest of the developed world.
The US GDP per capita has continued to grow steadily, in a comparable arc to the UK, Canada & Australia, yet only the US . There is something out of kilter in the US economy that is seeing more and more wealth held by a smaller and smaller number of people. And I don't believe it is automation that is causing that.
One thing that is likely to be a factor though is minimum wages. The median wage you specified is actually lower than the minimum wage in Australia. It makes cost of doing business much higher, and that has its own negative impacts. But it also means wealth is more spread.
Can you give me an example?
I have yet to see robots outside of repetitive tasks.
I don't see your statements as different. Unemployment in the developed world is low and has been falling since the banking collapse. In fact for most industries finding skilled labour is a significant challenge.
Doing more with the same number of people is exactly the same as achieving the same amount with less people. Either way it will free up available man hours. If labour is the primary driver of your business' costs then the removal of that cost will reduce the price of the product you sell. This will mean that, for the same level of income, more people will be able to purchase your items.
Automation is already everywhere. Where are the waves of unemployed people?
Oh - source - http://www.tradingeconomics.co...
And yet from 1950 to today the US economy has added about 100,000 jobs a month, this is a net figure. Sometimes there are troughs when the number of jobs decrease. But there are also spikes in the other direction.
So in your example 7.6 million jobs were lost in manufacturing, however during that same period there would have been those 7.6 million jobs replaced with something else, but an additional 12 million jobs created.
I'd disagree with pretty much everything on your list. Pretty much every inventions purpose was to make something easier to do. As something becomes easier to do it reduces its labour demand.
Once things are created they are refined to fit new purposes. But the initial invention is meant to reduce human labour.
Power tools? Absolutely. A power saw does the work of 10 men with hand saws. Steam Engines? Again absolutely. It replaces horses, which reduced the demand for a whole swath of jobs. Mining and someone to shovel coal was no where near as labour intensive as horse care, control, breeding, and waste removal. Same comment for cars.
Automating is great for repetitive tasks. Where location is static. ie things like manufacturing. What it's not good at is anything highly mobile, complex or something that requires creative reasoning.
Sure the number of manufacturing jobs have decreased in the US. But the US has added an average of about 100k jobs a month, every month back to the 50s. This is despite the number of manufacturing jobs declining. http://www.tradingeconomics.co...
No clamping down. It's not suppression at all.
The big difference, I believe, is that religion does not hold the same sway in Australia as it does in the US. We just completed the 2016 census and the largest group are the non-believers. Atheism is on the rise, organised religion is collapsing here.
Could not disagree with you more. The police should be a part of your community, representative of your people. They shouldn't be separate. Hell where I am they even dropped the name force from the police here in 1988. It became the police service.
Oh and the US has safety nets. They are just a lot lower and closer to the concrete then most other developed countries.
This is particularly true of healthcare.
When I can drive through the poor parts of your country and not see so many people who look lost. There will always be people the society lets slip through the cracks. The difference is the numbers.
And it's not even a question of the amount of money that is transferred from the haves to the have nots. It is how it is delivered and the outcomes.
Actually I'm from Australia. We have the most diverse population with one of the highest levels of migrants.
Yes but it prevents the next groups of infections.
From where I sit, external to the US but in a first world country. It doesn't look like it is foreigners that are trying to take advantage of you as an American. It looks like it is a small section of the American people that are taking advantage of the rest.
You have no safety net for your people. There is nothing that stops people falling so far that crime, even violent crime, becomes the best option. Your healthcare system lets people rot. Your regulatory system is crazy complex and yet at the same time appears totally ineffectual in so many ways. Things like guns, abortion, gay marriage are all still topics for conversations rather than just settled and not even thought about.
As a people you seem to hate your own government. The whole guns argument of needing to rise up against your government is just crazy from an outsiders perspective. You claim history, but America is far from alone in having had a war for independence. Your police force are terrified of the people they are meant to look after, so they themselves have become terrifying.
Sure there are countries out there that would like to see the US gone. Comes of being a super power and stomping around in other peoples countries. But the vast majority of the world would actually like to see the US grow, be stable and prosper. Because weirdly enough, when the US is doing well, the rest of the world does well as well. It's not a I win you lose situation.
They haven't convicted him based on just the pacemaker evidence. The pacemaker evidence was used to build an argument that his alibi was bullshit.
Yes other activities could have created the same pacemaker output. But he didn't claim to be doing any of those. He claimed 1 thing, the massive pile of evidence, including but not limited to the pacemaker logs, said otherwise.
Would all SpaceX employees covered by those regulations or only those with access to certain knowledge. Ie could their sales team for example be non US-Citizen?
Just a comment on the price. Oil prices are reflective of global supply and demand, and unless there are geographic constraints on a particular supply, ie no access to export points, changing where you buy the oil from won't change the price.
Lets say the US decides to only buy its oil domestically, this would have the immediate effect of pushing the domestic price up and the international price down. But it would be a fleeting change, as anyone who was buying from the US will shift to the now cheaper international supply. This will raise the international price and lower the US domestic price. The net effect is that the price ends up exactly the same.
The only case where this wouldn't happen is if the US domestic production is unable to ramp to US demand. In which case US price will be higher and international lower.
This is one of the big issues with oil embargoes on target countries. They are never world wide. So while the US and its allies may refuse to buy oil from country X, China and Russia won't have the same problem. No price change, just customer change.
We are stuck on 13 for a while yet as we have a custom piece of software that has dependencies that get killed in the next version and I don't want to spend the resources moving off them at this stage. I will do it at some point but everything just works.
I have no issues with SystemD. If it works I'll run with it. I'm not deep enough in the day to day management of machines to have a real preference. As long as it works and doesn't cause me headaches.
Those countries NEVER had visa waivers.
The change was that if you, as a citizen of a visa waiver country (eg Australia), has been to Iran, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Somalia, Libya or Yemen on or after March 1 2011 you would no longer qualify for the visa waiver program. You would still be able to visit, you just need to get a visa first. And given that those countries don't have a huge western tourist trade that doesn't seem like a massive impost. What's more is it isn't targetting the people of that country, its people who are citizens of somewhere else that went there.
I run Linux Mint at work. It is a 30 person operation mainly dealing with editing of word documents. Libreoffice works fine for 99% of documents. For the small number that have an issue we have a windows machine sat in a corner and it can usually remove the weird ass formatting that is causing the problems.
That slight pain of a single windows machine failover is offset by true instant computer hotspot capability via ldap and nfs mounted homes.
As for updates, the machines are all still on Linux Mint 13 which is Maya which was released in 2012. Sure it is missing loads of updates, but no security ones.
And death to all cities of any size as they drown in a wave a sickness and horse shit. Cars may pollute but its in the air and blows away. The amount of horse shit from that number of horses will choke a decent size city in a matter of days.