The rest of my point was that since Adobe makes money from their creation tools, it doesn't matter to them if the underlying technology is flash or HTML5 or something else. They can still make the creation tools and still make money off them.
This is quite true, although there would be the cost of rewriting their tools to use HTML5/JS/SVG or whatever emerges; I'll give you that would be relatively minor, though.
There is nothing special about the Flash format, Adobe doesn't use file-format lockin like Microsoft does. You can even find free tools to create Flash. Adobe wins by making better products than everyone else (or better advertising, I don't know), and they are confident they can continue winning, even if something replaces flash.
This is partially true, but I think that part of Adobe's competitive advantage here is that it is able to do things like write new versions of Flash, adding new features; obviously its creation tools are the ones that get those features first. Put simply, if you don't want to be lagging behind the current state of Flash, you'll probably always have to buy Adobe products.
Now the way I see it one of three results are possible.
I think you're missing option 4: The library just takes down your page without asking you (either because someone asked them to or because they themselves felt it necessary). Not exactly as bad as 1, but perhaps worse than 2, since there wouldn't be a whole lot you could do to fight it.
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The rest of my point was that since Adobe makes money from their creation tools, it doesn't matter to them if the underlying technology is flash or HTML5 or something else. They can still make the creation tools and still make money off them.
This is quite true, although there would be the cost of rewriting their tools to use HTML5/JS/SVG or whatever emerges; I'll give you that would be relatively minor, though.
There is nothing special about the Flash format, Adobe doesn't use file-format lockin like Microsoft does. You can even find free tools to create Flash. Adobe wins by making better products than everyone else (or better advertising, I don't know), and they are confident they can continue winning, even if something replaces flash.
This is partially true, but I think that part of Adobe's competitive advantage here is that it is able to do things like write new versions of Flash, adding new features; obviously its creation tools are the ones that get those features first. Put simply, if you don't want to be lagging behind the current state of Flash, you'll probably always have to buy Adobe products.
I think you're missing option 4: The library just takes down your page without asking you (either because someone asked them to or because they themselves felt it necessary). Not exactly as bad as 1, but perhaps worse than 2, since there wouldn't be a whole lot you could do to fight it.