War is a risky business, that's why it's called war. Trade war is no exception. How about infuriated China dumping 900 billions worth US treasure notes? US already have couple of wars on its hands, which are not going spectacularly well, do it need another one?
True, and if it truly possible to avoid the war indefinitely then that the wisest policy....
BUT the status qua is not one that would avoid war. It's leading us more or less there.
The question is when, not if.
So we have two choices change the status qua so that it doesn't lead to war, or FIGHT that war in your own terms before the enemy sets their terms.
Perhaps it IS time for a trade war. Because if we wait for china to start it, we may find it un-winnable.
But lets also add something different to the mix.
I think we're at the peek of 'world trade' and its going to soon decline for completely different reason than most expect.
You see the day of the factory..even in china... is numbered.
Large bulk items like Cars and Refrigerators will probably be coming out of factories for a while yet, but in 5-10 maybe 20 years on the outside, 3d printer like technology will make 'build at point of sale' or 'build on demand' technology common place.
All the 'too cheap to make in the US' plastic junk you buy at Walmart will come not from a ship from China or Japan, but out of a 3d printer in the backroom of the store. If not your own personal one in your utility-room/kitchen.
We should plan for a world were trade will drop perceptibly, and be mostly for bulk raw materials (and even that will be mostly the bulkier stuff like carbon and raw plastic, with only trace amounts of the more exotic metals needed) and luxury goods.
Such a change will mean a lot of the relationships between... well.. everyone will change. Future trade wars...in both directions...will be more about IP (Intellectual property) rather than PP (Physical property)
But governments will also have to deal with 7-8 billion people who will need 'constructive' things to do with their time...or idle hands will find other, probably less sociable, activities to fill their time.
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True, and if it truly possible to avoid the war indefinitely then that the wisest policy.... BUT the status qua is not one that would avoid war. It's leading us more or less there. The question is when, not if. So we have two choices change the status qua so that it doesn't lead to war, or FIGHT that war in your own terms before the enemy sets their terms.
Perhaps it IS time for a trade war. Because if we wait for china to start it, we may find it un-winnable. But lets also add something different to the mix. I think we're at the peek of 'world trade' and its going to soon decline for completely different reason than most expect. You see the day of the factory..even in china... is numbered. Large bulk items like Cars and Refrigerators will probably be coming out of factories for a while yet, but in 5-10 maybe 20 years on the outside, 3d printer like technology will make 'build at point of sale' or 'build on demand' technology common place. All the 'too cheap to make in the US' plastic junk you buy at Walmart will come not from a ship from China or Japan, but out of a 3d printer in the backroom of the store. If not your own personal one in your utility-room/kitchen. We should plan for a world were trade will drop perceptibly, and be mostly for bulk raw materials (and even that will be mostly the bulkier stuff like carbon and raw plastic, with only trace amounts of the more exotic metals needed) and luxury goods. Such a change will mean a lot of the relationships between ... well.. everyone will change. Future trade wars...in both directions...will be more about IP (Intellectual property) rather than PP (Physical property)
But governments will also have to deal with 7-8 billion people who will need 'constructive' things to do with their time...or idle hands will find other, probably less sociable, activities to fill their time.