As to 3 being low hanging fruit... then why wouldn't I pick it? I didn't say it would be X number of jobs. I said that was a profession that would be safe. It is... it is low hanging fruit and I'm going to eat it.
As to 4, does it really matter? My point was that it wouldn't be automated. I think you agree with that point. So... we are in agreement again.
As to 5 only being true if you don't go in for an economy of scale, the problem with your notion is that you're making two false assumptions. First you're thinking that the auto robots can't make dynamic houses. They absolutely can. If you're using a cement 3d printer then you can make the house in whatever shape you want. The second error is that you think the advantage of people is that they can make different houses when really what they can do is LOTS of little jobs that you don't really feel like using or programming a robot to do. Such as laying out the electrical wiring for the house. Such as doing one thing or another with the plumbing. There is just a lot of little things that all happen in a house that are difficult to automate. Could you automate them? Yes. Will they be automated? Not in my lifetime.
As to treatment as it is done now... Do factory robots that make shoes do so the same way as craftsman did 1000 years ago? That is, does the robot sit there with a little knife and cut out bits of leather and then sow them together? Does it sit there and drive tiny nails into the soles of the shoe?
or does it make the shoe in a totally different way?
I don't know how people are going to deal with your depression issue. However, it has been dealt with in various ways over the centuries.
A system that did it with a very different more automated system would not approach the problem in the same way.
As such your comment is sort of like saying we can't have automated shoe making machines because getting one machine to cut out the leather and hammer in the little nails isn't practical.
There will be treatments for you in the future depending on your problem.
1. A fair number of issues are medical. That is there is something actually wrong with your brain. Traditional medicine will have solutions for you.
2. A lot of depression is due to social isolation. As such telling people to get a friend or join some sort of group that does fun stuff... a club... something... will help a lot of other people.
3. You have people that have nothing wrong with their brains and are socially active but can be corrected with some medication which mostly just masks the issue until they feel better about themselves.
4. The final group generally doesn't have a solution. You can pay someone to talk to you but improvement in this final category is rare. talking to someone makes them feel better but it doesn't really change anything. This final group will likely continue to have people doing it. But it isn't something that needs PhDs to manage.
First, it was absolutely a push. You had people living in flop houses in factory cities, their children being used to fix or operate complicated machines because their hands were nice and tiny. And if you wanted to stay on the farm, you would not get a job. They didn't need you anymore. If you could have left the city where some were starving, and gone back to the farms... they would have. They couldn't.
Second, not everyone could get a job in the factory cities or did especially well there. You're ignoring that there was enormous economic and social trauma in that period. Your white washing of the whole thing makes me think that your ancestor that come after when they describe this disruption will just say "well that was more of a pull than a push because people were pulled into the new economy, etc"... well, you know better because you're here. But will your ancestor know better? A rather doubt it if they are revisionist with their history as you are being.
As to people not wanting service jobs and preferring factory jobs... that's silly. Most people are quite happy to sit at a desk rather than sit working some big noisy oily machine. Talk to people... especially college kids. They want a desk job.
As to service jobs being threatened... SOME service jobs are being threatened. And as to where people go after this... we can see segments of the economy hiring quite liberally. Connect the dots.
Part of what is making the whole issue murky is that people don't have to get jobs with the same urgency that they did in the past. So resolution of these issues is less abrupt. You have welfare etc and that protects people from starving but it also means that people don't have to adapt or literally die. And so a lot of people just aren't.
It will take a bit longer for you personally to know where this going. I've looked... I made some kind of personal proactive effort to figure this out, so I have a clue. You haven't. I don't say that with any intention of offending you. It is just what is. And you won't believe me if I tell you. So I'm not going to waste our collective time there. But you will know eventually. Everyone will.
It won't be bad. It will just be profoundly different. All of your social, political, and economic paradigms are going to get turned on their heads.
I personally will find that gratifying because it will finally kill old school Marxism which is already painfully obsolete. But you won't believe that until you see it. So... see you in the future.:)
I didn't actually say there would be more or less of such people. I said instead that the people repairing the machines that run the factory would keep their jobs.
THAT is what I said.
It is very easy to argue against someone when you change their argument to something you have an argument against.
I could say "well that is not argument in favor of pedophilia" implying that you were supporting pedophilia.
What you just did there was a strawman. I never said there would be more or less. I said X JOB would be viable in the new economy.
That's it.
As to numbers, you have to look at other considerations like could we have MORE factories if the cost of operating a factory were reduced? Consider all the things we make today that we would never make in the past even if we could because we couldn't afford the luxury of making them.
What you should see in the future as the cost of production falls is that we produce MORE as a result. That has always been what we've done.
And not just more of the same thing but more things that we otherwise wouldn't even make.
Consider what happens when labor becomes an irrelevant expense in manufacturing.
ACTUALLY think about that. That changes everything.
Empiricism is not something you can just brush off as being unnecessary. It is a requirement for something to actually be scientific.
Empiricism makes theories falsifiable. That is, they can be "wrong" and because they can be wrong they can also be right. Without empiricism things can't be wrong. And as they can't be wrong they are non-falsifiable arguments and therefore logically fallacious. A discipline founded on illogic cannot be considered scientific.
As to my point coming across as callus... I consider that brutal maturity.
I think there are a lot of people in our society that are mentally and intellectually and morally soft. There are hard truths and it is a mark of maturity to face them and deal with them rather than lie to ourselves, pretend they don't exist, and engage in other childish fantacies.
Death is real. We all will die. The mature mind not only accepts this but plans for it. You know "i have this many years on this world. I must do these things in this period of time if I want to obtain my goals. Then I will die barring accidents which will further shorten my life randomly."
That is an example of maturity. It is callus? Yes. Think of what that word refers to... the thick skin a man gets on his hand when he works with his hands. That insulating layer that lets him handle splintery wood or wield a hammer without damaging his hands.
A man's hands that are callused like that is not a mark of shame. You don't look down on a man that has such hands and say "your hands aren't as baby soft as mine"... to the contrary the calluses are a mark of pride. It shows a life of hard work. Hands that have done something.
My mind is similar in that I can manipulate painful ideas and tough subjects without damaging my ego or mentality. I just deal with it.
I think too often we coddle our people to our social determent. What is gained by treating our people like children? We have trigger warnings and safe spaces and the childishness simply gets worse and worse as many of our people can't deal with anything.
Time to grow up. Reality check time. Deal or die. Swim or sink.
As to some people not being able to adapt, we can offer welfare to those people. I can't do better than that. Previous generations in that position literally starved to death. They will suffer far less than they have historically. Be grateful.
As to life being unfair... when has it ever been fair? This is this childishness I was referring to previously... no offense meant... please take none... it would be counter productive if you got emotional. But complaining that something will be unfair is silly. That things are unfair is normal.
Do you have the same opportunities as a billionaire's son? Nope. Never will. You'll have to work harder than him. No way around that.
And I should point out that people in the US are generally better positioned to profit than are people in other countries. Imagine you are in the third world. How hard do you have to work to get the same things most people in the first world take for granted? Is that fair? Want to give up everything you have so they can have more? I didn't think so. So lets put that little complaint aside. It is meaningless.
As to whether we as a society can stop the rise of automation that will replace large segments of the labor force with robots. No you can't stop it.
It would be like trying to keep people from using automobiles and use horses instead. Automobiles are more efficient. They're faster, cheaper, stronger, more adaptable, easier to clean up after... etc etc etc.
You can't stop it.
The robots are going to employed.
I recently saw a machine that custom makes hamburgers. It literally grinds the meat individually for every burger, can blend the meat on the fly with different grades of meat to give different blends in teh patty. It can season the patty during grinding dynamically with any of a number of spices in its hoppers, it slices the tomatoes, lettuce, pickles, and onions on the fly, the onions can be cooked or not on the fly, and the whole thing is assembled with condiments on demand by the machine.
The machine can make about 300 burgers an hour this way. The machine costs about 80,000 dollars.
Now, you see this agitation from fast food workers to be paid a "living wage"... you see the government mandating a higher minimum wage... consider the position of the fast food franchise. Why not replace all of that with one of these machines?
Ironically your post was very hard to parse... I think you made an effort to be organized but it didn't make sense because it was hard to separate your point from mine from whatever else you were doing.
But I'll go through it anyway.
As to the point of a business, you're not addressing the fact that we've gone through serious economic disruptions before. You "the sky is falling" argument fails to recognize that we've gone through these things before.
The pattern is that you have a generation or so where things are very hard and then it gets a lot better once people have adapted.
My prediction is that this transition will be similar to past transitions.
You must present an argument why this transition can't simply be toughed out like every one before it.
As to there being inequalities... name any time in history where there haven't been? That's normal.
As to threats to livelihoods... in previous cycles people would occasionally starve to death. What you consider a hardship is historically nothing.
As to the way I fell about it and callusness... I think you misunderstand me. I'm not saying it is good or that I don't care. I'm saying rather that you can't stop it and that you shouldn't even try because you can't.
This change is happening. We can soften the blow with welfare so that people don't suffer that badly. But we can't stop the change.
It is a inevitable as death and taxes. It is happening.
As to arguments against welfare... I can argue for it to be efficient and I can argue that only those that actually need it, get it. But would I argue against it existing at all? No. I think for those that literally cannot survive without it, it should be provided.
If I have any criticism for welfare it is that it is used for political reasons often as not. That is a politican will bribe people to vote for them or create a dependent population that can be relied upon to vote for them.
You'll also get situations where people could support themselves if they lived in an area with a lower cost of living. The welfare often as not allows people that don't make enough to live in an area to live there anyway. That distorts the market. It lowers income in the area by providing artificially cheap labor. This makes it further hard for other people to live there that are working. It also inflates property values. It also encourages economic activity of types and levels that are not efficient in those areas.
Welfare distorts the market and the economy in various areas as well as distorts the politics.
I am okay with helping those that need help. However, I would like to do so in a manner that did this as efficiently as possible with as few negative side effects as possible.
The issue is that the way a machine does its job is very predictable. The way a machine breaks is not.
You say you'll go in for modular bits... but that is more expensive. You're talking about replacing modules rather than repairing stuff. All a human has to do to save his job is be better than the machine. At some things, people are better. They will remain better for a very long time.
If your job is very repetitive, predictable, and simple... then a machine might replace you. If it isn't... then you'll probably avoid that.
Tell me, why do you get upset when I point out that communists don't like it when it is pointed out that jacking up taxes on the rich simply causes them to leave the country with their money?
It does.
Its a fact.
And communists don't like it when you point that out. Also a fact.
So... why do you get offended by facts?
Odd.
I don't get offended by either facts or fictions. And since everything is one of the two, I don't get offended by anything.
What are you political leanings by the way... Be honest here... Don't be a crypto. Tell me what you believe.
What do you think of "from each according to his ability and to each according to his need"?
Sound like a good idea to you?:)
You can't win, you know... you called me stupid, but I'm a lot smarter than you.
Do you honestly lament any of these innovations or think we are poorer as a society or individually because of them?
Obviously not. Look... people are going to lose jobs. But they're going to be obsolete jobs that are lost. I am not retarding human progress just to create make work for failures.
They can get welfare and maybe their kids will be less useless.
... Communism assumed that german factory worker taking up arms to take control of the industrial complex.
Automate stuff and things change.
If you want to conflate communism with anything even remotely similar that is your own business. I wouldn't conflate capitalism with mercantilism. But if you're conflating communism with a "palace economy" then I don't know where to start with that.
Communism as Marx understood it is obsolete. You're going to have to redesign it to suit the new economy. Good luck with that.
Just people that are communists that say they're not or are vague about it or otherwise misrepresent themselves about their communist political leanings in some way.
You say I'm crazy for bring that up. Okay. But the thing is that most communists aren't upfront about it. I'm not trying to oppress them. However, it is irritating to deal with arguments when they're based on misrepresented objectives.
There are a few tells that communists have. They can't help it. They say certain things or use certain reference sources and... they're red flags. By themselves they don't mean anything. But when you link it to the rest of the argument you can see everything lines up a little too perfectly.
You want to call that crazy? Okay. I call it honest. I could just think these things and play shadow games with these people. But I find it to be boring. I'd rather just call a spade a spade.
there is another alternative to jacking up taxes... cut spending. Just saying.
How did your budget balance before the high oil prices? I have to assume the spending level was lower. Why not go back to the old budget adjusted for population?
To some extent you're right, however a certain amount of trading back and forth is healthy.
Trading the same stock back and forth 400 times a second is of no value to anyone but the investment house which uses that to pump money out of the market.
If you want to tell a joke, you need to grasp that I can't hear your voice or grasp your tone. I just see your words and I see them in the context of everyone else's words.
You need to give people a clearer hint if you want them to reliably get your joke.
Bitch please. That entire field is taken by everyone with a giant fucking bag of salt. Have you ever heard neurologists talk about psychologists?
Personally?
I have.
Were they all unskilled uneducated fucktwits presuming themselves to be knowledgeable? There is with few exceptions any "science" with less backing than psychology.
It is a joke compared to any of the hard sciences.
But you know what, that wasn't my point. I don't really care what you think about psychology. Go spend your time with them all you like. I've spent plenty of time with them and I've learned this... some of them are useful and good at their jobs because they personally are gifted. But most of them are fucking useless. And if the doctorate were worth yak piss, that wouldn't be the case.
There were huge labor disruptions that caused millions of people to go hungry.
Do you know what when we shifted from hunter gatherer to sendentary agriculture that we suffered horribly from a dietary stand point?
Yes. We lost six inches of height almost immediately. Our bones were full of holes and our teeth fell out.
When we shifted from agriculture to industry we had mass unemployment, child labor, flop houses... men willing to work just for food. Any job would do... anything to just to have food.
Consider your history.
We are entering a phase of instability. It has happened before. It will suck for those that can't adapt but it will not be stopped. It will happen.
You can either adapt to that and deal with it... or it will crush anyone that gets in its way. You cannot stop it.
The automation is happening. And with it, everything will change.
Think of how alien the beliefs and social structure of a hunter gatherer society is to a sedentary agricultural society? Think of how alien the social structure and society of an agricultural economy is to an industrial economy?
Now consider we're going into a new phase. Your beliefs, your economic models, your social structures... they're all going to get warped by what is to come.
That isn't a threat. That is a prophecy. it will happen. Expect it.
As to what it takes to heal a damaged human mind... you don't know. Not scientifically.
Grasp how a chemist knows how to break up a molecule and create another from its parts. How did the chemist learn that?
Experimentation. They tried things.
Saying "you need a human"... you don't know that. You've no empirical evidence to substantiate that position.
Furthermore, if the issue is that you need a FRIEND to tell your woes to that is quite a different thing from a DOCTOR that is fixing your brain.
Most of the real progress made in psychology has actually come out of neuroscience. Why? Empirical evidence. Experimentation.
The days of you talking about your feelings being called "science" are numbered. You disagree? Fine. I don't care. The Sun will rise in the east and set in the west... what someone says about won't change what it does.
Your witch comment is an accusation of ad hominem. I have done no such thing. Quote where I did that to you in this thread.
This is a challenge. Respond or your position will be assumed to be forfeited.
As to your feed back argument... I already addressed it. Apparently being contradicted by factual arguments causes you to go a bit cross eyed.
It cited that we had this same thing happen during the industrial revolution. Same thing.
We used to have 60 percent of the US labor force in agriculture. Today is it 5 percent.
That is with a massive population increase.
Saying that because you are going to lose an obsolete job that you'll never get another job again is only true if you don't retrain or you can't retrain.
If you can't... which was something that happened for past generations when they went through this... then yes, you will have no job. Historically such people starved to death. Today we have welfare so it won't be that bad. But it will pass. Their children can get jobs if the education system isn't systematically sabotaged by fuckwits.
As to this notion that spending might outpace earnings... that is already happening. The solution is to cut the budget until income equals spending.
Tough for the political camps that only remain viable by bribing people to vote for them. But everyone has to make sacrifices.
The oil price will recover somewhat over time. It will be unlikely to go as high as it was though. It was those high prices that triggered the fracking boom. And now that Saudi Arabia has given up trying to destroy the fracking industry... which is why the prices went so low... They're just accepting the new competition and the new lower price.
You can expect prices to hang out around 2.50 to 3.00 dollars a gallon at least. Your revenue should improve as a result.
that said, Alaska is overly dependent on that money.
I am not sure what other industries you have, but consider relying upon a more diversified income stream. You can't control that of course... just saying.
You want to depend on lots of things at once. Nothing should be make or break for you.
What kind of state employee are you? What do you do? Forget the department... like what do you actually do? I'm sure there is some other job that needs whatever that skill is...
Slashdot Mirror
You cited jobs that were put out of business by the industrial revolution.
Not the information revolution.
Cite a job you want to do that is being made obsolete by the information revolution.
Do you want to sell life alert systems to old people over the telephone? Because that job was made obsolete by the computer.
What job is being taken away from you that you actually want to do?
As to 3 being low hanging fruit... then why wouldn't I pick it? I didn't say it would be X number of jobs. I said that was a profession that would be safe. It is... it is low hanging fruit and I'm going to eat it.
As to 4, does it really matter? My point was that it wouldn't be automated. I think you agree with that point. So... we are in agreement again.
As to 5 only being true if you don't go in for an economy of scale, the problem with your notion is that you're making two false assumptions. First you're thinking that the auto robots can't make dynamic houses. They absolutely can. If you're using a cement 3d printer then you can make the house in whatever shape you want. The second error is that you think the advantage of people is that they can make different houses when really what they can do is LOTS of little jobs that you don't really feel like using or programming a robot to do. Such as laying out the electrical wiring for the house. Such as doing one thing or another with the plumbing. There is just a lot of little things that all happen in a house that are difficult to automate. Could you automate them? Yes. Will they be automated? Not in my lifetime.
As to treatment as it is done now... Do factory robots that make shoes do so the same way as craftsman did 1000 years ago? That is, does the robot sit there with a little knife and cut out bits of leather and then sow them together? Does it sit there and drive tiny nails into the soles of the shoe?
or does it make the shoe in a totally different way?
I don't know how people are going to deal with your depression issue. However, it has been dealt with in various ways over the centuries.
A system that did it with a very different more automated system would not approach the problem in the same way.
As such your comment is sort of like saying we can't have automated shoe making machines because getting one machine to cut out the leather and hammer in the little nails isn't practical.
There will be treatments for you in the future depending on your problem.
1. A fair number of issues are medical. That is there is something actually wrong with your brain. Traditional medicine will have solutions for you.
2. A lot of depression is due to social isolation. As such telling people to get a friend or join some sort of group that does fun stuff... a club... something... will help a lot of other people.
3. You have people that have nothing wrong with their brains and are socially active but can be corrected with some medication which mostly just masks the issue until they feel better about themselves.
4. The final group generally doesn't have a solution. You can pay someone to talk to you but improvement in this final category is rare. talking to someone makes them feel better but it doesn't really change anything. This final group will likely continue to have people doing it. But it isn't something that needs PhDs to manage.
First, it was absolutely a push. You had people living in flop houses in factory cities, their children being used to fix or operate complicated machines because their hands were nice and tiny. And if you wanted to stay on the farm, you would not get a job. They didn't need you anymore. If you could have left the city where some were starving, and gone back to the farms... they would have. They couldn't.
Second, not everyone could get a job in the factory cities or did especially well there. You're ignoring that there was enormous economic and social trauma in that period. Your white washing of the whole thing makes me think that your ancestor that come after when they describe this disruption will just say "well that was more of a pull than a push because people were pulled into the new economy, etc"... well, you know better because you're here. But will your ancestor know better? A rather doubt it if they are revisionist with their history as you are being.
As to people not wanting service jobs and preferring factory jobs... that's silly. Most people are quite happy to sit at a desk rather than sit working some big noisy oily machine. Talk to people... especially college kids. They want a desk job.
As to service jobs being threatened... SOME service jobs are being threatened. And as to where people go after this... we can see segments of the economy hiring quite liberally. Connect the dots.
Part of what is making the whole issue murky is that people don't have to get jobs with the same urgency that they did in the past. So resolution of these issues is less abrupt. You have welfare etc and that protects people from starving but it also means that people don't have to adapt or literally die. And so a lot of people just aren't.
It will take a bit longer for you personally to know where this going. I've looked... I made some kind of personal proactive effort to figure this out, so I have a clue. You haven't. I don't say that with any intention of offending you. It is just what is. And you won't believe me if I tell you. So I'm not going to waste our collective time there. But you will know eventually. Everyone will.
It won't be bad. It will just be profoundly different. All of your social, political, and economic paradigms are going to get turned on their heads.
I personally will find that gratifying because it will finally kill old school Marxism which is already painfully obsolete. But you won't believe that until you see it. So... see you in the future. :)
Perhaps but that isn't what I said is it?
I didn't actually say there would be more or less of such people. I said instead that the people repairing the machines that run the factory would keep their jobs.
THAT is what I said.
It is very easy to argue against someone when you change their argument to something you have an argument against.
I could say "well that is not argument in favor of pedophilia" implying that you were supporting pedophilia.
What you just did there was a strawman. I never said there would be more or less. I said X JOB would be viable in the new economy.
That's it.
As to numbers, you have to look at other considerations like could we have MORE factories if the cost of operating a factory were reduced? Consider all the things we make today that we would never make in the past even if we could because we couldn't afford the luxury of making them.
What you should see in the future as the cost of production falls is that we produce MORE as a result. That has always been what we've done.
And not just more of the same thing but more things that we otherwise wouldn't even make.
Consider what happens when labor becomes an irrelevant expense in manufacturing.
ACTUALLY think about that. That changes everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
An example for consideration.
Empiricism is not something you can just brush off as being unnecessary. It is a requirement for something to actually be scientific.
Empiricism makes theories falsifiable. That is, they can be "wrong" and because they can be wrong they can also be right. Without empiricism things can't be wrong. And as they can't be wrong they are non-falsifiable arguments and therefore logically fallacious. A discipline founded on illogic cannot be considered scientific.
This is obvious... is it not?
As to my point coming across as callus... I consider that brutal maturity.
I think there are a lot of people in our society that are mentally and intellectually and morally soft. There are hard truths and it is a mark of maturity to face them and deal with them rather than lie to ourselves, pretend they don't exist, and engage in other childish fantacies.
Death is real. We all will die. The mature mind not only accepts this but plans for it. You know "i have this many years on this world. I must do these things in this period of time if I want to obtain my goals. Then I will die barring accidents which will further shorten my life randomly."
That is an example of maturity. It is callus? Yes. Think of what that word refers to... the thick skin a man gets on his hand when he works with his hands. That insulating layer that lets him handle splintery wood or wield a hammer without damaging his hands.
A man's hands that are callused like that is not a mark of shame. You don't look down on a man that has such hands and say "your hands aren't as baby soft as mine"... to the contrary the calluses are a mark of pride. It shows a life of hard work. Hands that have done something.
My mind is similar in that I can manipulate painful ideas and tough subjects without damaging my ego or mentality. I just deal with it.
I think too often we coddle our people to our social determent. What is gained by treating our people like children? We have trigger warnings and safe spaces and the childishness simply gets worse and worse as many of our people can't deal with anything.
Time to grow up. Reality check time. Deal or die. Swim or sink.
As to some people not being able to adapt, we can offer welfare to those people. I can't do better than that. Previous generations in that position literally starved to death. They will suffer far less than they have historically. Be grateful.
As to life being unfair... when has it ever been fair? This is this childishness I was referring to previously... no offense meant... please take none... it would be counter productive if you got emotional. But complaining that something will be unfair is silly. That things are unfair is normal.
Do you have the same opportunities as a billionaire's son? Nope. Never will. You'll have to work harder than him. No way around that.
And I should point out that people in the US are generally better positioned to profit than are people in other countries. Imagine you are in the third world. How hard do you have to work to get the same things most people in the first world take for granted? Is that fair? Want to give up everything you have so they can have more? I didn't think so. So lets put that little complaint aside. It is meaningless.
As to whether we as a society can stop the rise of automation that will replace large segments of the labor force with robots. No you can't stop it.
It would be like trying to keep people from using automobiles and use horses instead. Automobiles are more efficient. They're faster, cheaper, stronger, more adaptable, easier to clean up after... etc etc etc.
You can't stop it.
The robots are going to employed.
I recently saw a machine that custom makes hamburgers. It literally grinds the meat individually for every burger, can blend the meat on the fly with different grades of meat to give different blends in teh patty. It can season the patty during grinding dynamically with any of a number of spices in its hoppers, it slices the tomatoes, lettuce, pickles, and onions on the fly, the onions can be cooked or not on the fly, and the whole thing is assembled with condiments on demand by the machine.
The machine can make about 300 burgers an hour this way. The machine costs about 80,000 dollars.
Now, you see this agitation from fast food workers to be paid a "living wage"... you see the government mandating a higher minimum wage... consider the position of the fast food franchise. Why not replace all of that with one of these machines?
Ironically your post was very hard to parse... I think you made an effort to be organized but it didn't make sense because it was hard to separate your point from mine from whatever else you were doing.
But I'll go through it anyway.
As to the point of a business, you're not addressing the fact that we've gone through serious economic disruptions before. You "the sky is falling" argument fails to recognize that we've gone through these things before.
The pattern is that you have a generation or so where things are very hard and then it gets a lot better once people have adapted.
My prediction is that this transition will be similar to past transitions.
You must present an argument why this transition can't simply be toughed out like every one before it.
As to there being inequalities... name any time in history where there haven't been? That's normal.
As to threats to livelihoods... in previous cycles people would occasionally starve to death. What you consider a hardship is historically nothing.
As to the way I fell about it and callusness... I think you misunderstand me. I'm not saying it is good or that I don't care. I'm saying rather that you can't stop it and that you shouldn't even try because you can't.
This change is happening. We can soften the blow with welfare so that people don't suffer that badly. But we can't stop the change.
It is a inevitable as death and taxes. It is happening.
As to arguments against welfare... I can argue for it to be efficient and I can argue that only those that actually need it, get it. But would I argue against it existing at all? No. I think for those that literally cannot survive without it, it should be provided.
If I have any criticism for welfare it is that it is used for political reasons often as not. That is a politican will bribe people to vote for them or create a dependent population that can be relied upon to vote for them.
You'll also get situations where people could support themselves if they lived in an area with a lower cost of living. The welfare often as not allows people that don't make enough to live in an area to live there anyway. That distorts the market. It lowers income in the area by providing artificially cheap labor. This makes it further hard for other people to live there that are working. It also inflates property values. It also encourages economic activity of types and levels that are not efficient in those areas.
Welfare distorts the market and the economy in various areas as well as distorts the politics.
I am okay with helping those that need help. However, I would like to do so in a manner that did this as efficiently as possible with as few negative side effects as possible.
You can agree with this I think?
The whole robot costs a couple million dollars in some cases.
In any business where you're dealing with equipment that expensive, you repair first.
Name an exception.
Double dog dare you.
When that money is on the line, paying some guy to fix it is a lot cheaper. it is just is.
No no no...
Shh.
It is.
Either challenge me to cite a few examples where upon I'll demand you reciprocate... or just accept it... because I'm right.
Not likely for a very long time.
The issue is that the way a machine does its job is very predictable. The way a machine breaks is not.
You say you'll go in for modular bits... but that is more expensive. You're talking about replacing modules rather than repairing stuff. All a human has to do to save his job is be better than the machine. At some things, people are better. They will remain better for a very long time.
If your job is very repetitive, predictable, and simple... then a machine might replace you. If it isn't... then you'll probably avoid that.
Did I get too close to home for you?
Tell me, why do you get upset when I point out that communists don't like it when it is pointed out that jacking up taxes on the rich simply causes them to leave the country with their money?
It does.
Its a fact.
And communists don't like it when you point that out. Also a fact.
So... why do you get offended by facts?
Odd.
I don't get offended by either facts or fictions. And since everything is one of the two, I don't get offended by anything.
What are you political leanings by the way... Be honest here... Don't be a crypto. Tell me what you believe.
What do you think of "from each according to his ability and to each according to his need"?
Sound like a good idea to you? :)
You can't win, you know... you called me stupid, but I'm a lot smarter than you.
Do you honestly lament any of these innovations or think we are poorer as a society or individually because of them?
Obviously not. Look... people are going to lose jobs. But they're going to be obsolete jobs that are lost. I am not retarding human progress just to create make work for failures.
They can get welfare and maybe their kids will be less useless.
Your irrationality and an ability to express a coherent thought is not my problem.
if you want to run away after failing to make any sense, that is of course your own business. You will not be missed.
... Communism assumed that german factory worker taking up arms to take control of the industrial complex.
Automate stuff and things change.
If you want to conflate communism with anything even remotely similar that is your own business. I wouldn't conflate capitalism with mercantilism. But if you're conflating communism with a "palace economy" then I don't know where to start with that.
Communism as Marx understood it is obsolete. You're going to have to redesign it to suit the new economy. Good luck with that.
Crypto communists are secret communists.
Just people that are communists that say they're not or are vague about it or otherwise misrepresent themselves about their communist political leanings in some way.
You say I'm crazy for bring that up. Okay. But the thing is that most communists aren't upfront about it. I'm not trying to oppress them. However, it is irritating to deal with arguments when they're based on misrepresented objectives.
There are a few tells that communists have. They can't help it. They say certain things or use certain reference sources and... they're red flags. By themselves they don't mean anything. But when you link it to the rest of the argument you can see everything lines up a little too perfectly.
You want to call that crazy? Okay. I call it honest. I could just think these things and play shadow games with these people. But I find it to be boring. I'd rather just call a spade a spade.
read the trades.
Whatever you think about it, Hollywood has already marked this movie as a dud.
Everyone is talking about what a mistake it was and whether Clooney's career is in trouble.
Read the trades.
As to Tron, it made a lot of money.
If you're in the business of making movies to make money, then you'll want to make movies that make money.
Do I need to connect these dots?
*gets out sharpie*
*connects dots*
It makes a duck. :)
there is another alternative to jacking up taxes... cut spending. Just saying.
How did your budget balance before the high oil prices? I have to assume the spending level was lower. Why not go back to the old budget adjusted for population?
Absent that... yes, your taxes go up.
To some extent you're right, however a certain amount of trading back and forth is healthy.
Trading the same stock back and forth 400 times a second is of no value to anyone but the investment house which uses that to pump money out of the market.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...
If you want to tell a joke, you need to grasp that I can't hear your voice or grasp your tone. I just see your words and I see them in the context of everyone else's words.
You need to give people a clearer hint if you want them to reliably get your joke.
Bitch please. That entire field is taken by everyone with a giant fucking bag of salt. Have you ever heard neurologists talk about psychologists?
Personally?
I have.
Were they all unskilled uneducated fucktwits presuming themselves to be knowledgeable? There is with few exceptions any "science" with less backing than psychology.
It is a joke compared to any of the hard sciences.
But you know what, that wasn't my point. I don't really care what you think about psychology. Go spend your time with them all you like. I've spent plenty of time with them and I've learned this... some of them are useful and good at their jobs because they personally are gifted. But most of them are fucking useless. And if the doctorate were worth yak piss, that wouldn't be the case.
That happened in the past as well.
There were huge labor disruptions that caused millions of people to go hungry.
Do you know what when we shifted from hunter gatherer to sendentary agriculture that we suffered horribly from a dietary stand point?
Yes. We lost six inches of height almost immediately. Our bones were full of holes and our teeth fell out.
When we shifted from agriculture to industry we had mass unemployment, child labor, flop houses... men willing to work just for food. Any job would do... anything to just to have food.
Consider your history.
We are entering a phase of instability. It has happened before. It will suck for those that can't adapt but it will not be stopped. It will happen.
You can either adapt to that and deal with it... or it will crush anyone that gets in its way. You cannot stop it.
The automation is happening. And with it, everything will change.
Think of how alien the beliefs and social structure of a hunter gatherer society is to a sedentary agricultural society? Think of how alien the social structure and society of an agricultural economy is to an industrial economy?
Now consider we're going into a new phase. Your beliefs, your economic models, your social structures... they're all going to get warped by what is to come.
That isn't a threat. That is a prophecy. it will happen. Expect it.
As to what it takes to heal a damaged human mind... you don't know. Not scientifically.
Grasp how a chemist knows how to break up a molecule and create another from its parts. How did the chemist learn that?
Experimentation. They tried things.
Saying "you need a human"... you don't know that. You've no empirical evidence to substantiate that position.
Furthermore, if the issue is that you need a FRIEND to tell your woes to that is quite a different thing from a DOCTOR that is fixing your brain.
Most of the real progress made in psychology has actually come out of neuroscience. Why? Empirical evidence. Experimentation.
The days of you talking about your feelings being called "science" are numbered. You disagree? Fine. I don't care. The Sun will rise in the east and set in the west... what someone says about won't change what it does.
Your witch comment is an accusation of ad hominem. I have done no such thing. Quote where I did that to you in this thread.
This is a challenge. Respond or your position will be assumed to be forfeited.
As to your feed back argument... I already addressed it. Apparently being contradicted by factual arguments causes you to go a bit cross eyed.
It cited that we had this same thing happen during the industrial revolution. Same thing.
We used to have 60 percent of the US labor force in agriculture. Today is it 5 percent.
That is with a massive population increase.
Saying that because you are going to lose an obsolete job that you'll never get another job again is only true if you don't retrain or you can't retrain.
If you can't... which was something that happened for past generations when they went through this... then yes, you will have no job. Historically such people starved to death. Today we have welfare so it won't be that bad. But it will pass. Their children can get jobs if the education system isn't systematically sabotaged by fuckwits.
As to this notion that spending might outpace earnings... that is already happening. The solution is to cut the budget until income equals spending.
Tough for the political camps that only remain viable by bribing people to vote for them. But everyone has to make sacrifices.
The oil price will recover somewhat over time. It will be unlikely to go as high as it was though. It was those high prices that triggered the fracking boom. And now that Saudi Arabia has given up trying to destroy the fracking industry... which is why the prices went so low... They're just accepting the new competition and the new lower price.
You can expect prices to hang out around 2.50 to 3.00 dollars a gallon at least. Your revenue should improve as a result.
that said, Alaska is overly dependent on that money.
I am not sure what other industries you have, but consider relying upon a more diversified income stream. You can't control that of course... just saying.
You want to depend on lots of things at once. Nothing should be make or break for you.
What kind of state employee are you? What do you do? Forget the department... like what do you actually do? I'm sure there is some other job that needs whatever that skill is...
They can typically do what the top level cards did only a year ago.
To really keep your edge with a top level card you have to buy a new one every year.
So look at that price and think of paying it annually. I upgrade frequently. But I do so in the mid levels. You keep pace and don't break the bank.