one would think that a company such as Microsoft that has been owning the software market for decades now would know how to implement a randomizing algorithm correctly.
WTF? They can't even get their slashes round the right way.
Bayesian statistics are an interesting thing. Mwhwhwhwhaaaa. Who thought they would say that about stats?
Anyway. you can tell spam with a remarkably high degree of accuracy... Guess what. You can tell "Important" and "friends" emails with a similar degree of accuracy (you define what's important or who are friends). No offence to most vandals (of any type), but usually they are complete fuckwits. I suspect they and what they write are probably even more predictable than spammers.
This makes sense. The increases in stocks (and commodities) are inflation so will neither massively outperform nor underperform it. Their apparent increases in value are the increases caused by the expansion of the money supply, and frankly the expansion of the money supply is predictable. Politicians, and bankers always do what's expedient for themselves.
The markets are powered primarily by inflation (forget CPI figures, they're heavily manipulated to look good, look at credit creation). August 15th 1971, the fundamental nature of money changed, debt became money, debt pays interest. Expansion in credit loaned into existence (by banks) is followed by collapse because of the interest. You should also take a look at interest rates over the period (couldn't find an online chart).
We've been living on bubbles for the last 30 years (there are many smaller credit bubbles in the charts before that), and will continue to do so until the money men lose their influence with the state... It's been 300 years in the UK so far.
I'm already making a much much bigger bet than that. On the order of several hundred k.
The oil price will go up till it kills the economy, puts millions out of work. Then it'll crash because nobody can afford it. Then as everthing recovers over the next couple of years it'll go back up again with demand. The specific price is going to depend on the level of inflation by the government.
There is a chart of whale oil prices which are a reasonable model of what's going to happen.
Other commodities are recyclable. You can melt them down and reuse them. Oil, not. It's burned it's gone. Course we may switch to electric. Which means renewables, coal and primarily nuclear. But we have a huge oil infrastructure which would have to be replaced. Trillions of dollars. Which means lots of inflation and lots of recession.
When they really start using shale, you know the shit is really hitting the fan.
And no matter how much is left (quoted in the reserve figures as recoverable), could be a trillion trillion barrels, nobody is going to bother trying to get it out when it takes a unit of energy in to get a unit of energy out.
If the unit of computation is to put a single character on the screen for example. Today, it requires several supercomputer class processors to do the same job as one 286 during the 80s.
The phone market has always been looking for ways of extending battery life. I have a phone which is basically a computer with an antenna. It plays videos, music has wordprocessor, gps, maps etc and the battery still lasts up to 3 days.
Real physical limits. Energy production. Getting rid of heat.
Course we could always go nuclear and resume the exponential increase in energy available per individual which has been driving progress for the last 100,000 years, and which stopped in the 1970s (it explains the no flying cars thing, and lack of moon habitats).
What makes a typical profession a profession, is legal protection by the state. You can't just practice as a doctor on a whim, it is illegal to do so. It creates scarcity in the field, and therefore high prices.
Ironically, things normally thought of as trades; electricians, plumbers etc are in many countries increasingly being required to pass certifications and gain legal protection by the state, and are therefore becoming more professional and prices are going up.
Programming. Pretty much nothing required. Anyone can become a programmer on a whim and a "Learning Java" book. People contracting individual jobs like any other trade. It's pretty clear programming is a trade rather than a profession. Sorry, but these features of programming are going to continue to push prices down, not up, as the supply of programmers increases domestically or abroad.
If you want to reverse the trend you're going to have to create or join a professional body and lobby the state to make programming without a license, illegal. (using whatever criteria you think will sway the argument; dangerous, national security etc)
Interestingly. The UK courts many many years ago decided you were loaning the money to them and therefore was theirs to do with as they wished. What the bank does is create a book keeping entry and assigns that to you. I guess you could try to describe that as your money.
Wherever people gather, there needs to be a chronicle, otherwise some authority in the future is going to make some arbitrary guess about what people believed or wanted.
Slashdot Mirror
And optar:
http://ronja.twibright.com/optar/
You know it makes sense.
And have no loyalty to Google.
But they do provide the best results, and until they don't, i'll keep using them.
one would think that a company such as Microsoft that has been owning the software market for decades now would know how to implement a randomizing algorithm correctly.
WTF? They can't even get their slashes round the right way.
Bayesian statistics are an interesting thing. Mwhwhwhwhaaaa. Who thought they would say that about stats?
Anyway. you can tell spam with a remarkably high degree of accuracy... Guess what. You can tell "Important" and "friends" emails with a similar degree of accuracy (you define what's important or who are friends). No offence to most vandals (of any type), but usually they are complete fuckwits. I suspect they and what they write are probably even more predictable than spammers.
Can't have that.
At least, that's what'll end up on your criminal record.
Adjusted for Inflation, Dow's Gains Are Puny.
This makes sense. The increases in stocks (and commodities) are inflation so will neither massively outperform nor underperform it. Their apparent increases in value are the increases caused by the expansion of the money supply, and frankly the expansion of the money supply is predictable. Politicians, and bankers always do what's expedient for themselves.
Really not so much.
Yeah, lots of noise at the daily level, but beyond that the signals emerge.
e.g.
ftse 100
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^FTSE&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
dow jones
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
The markets are powered primarily by inflation (forget CPI figures, they're heavily manipulated to look good, look at credit creation). August 15th 1971, the fundamental nature of money changed, debt became money, debt pays interest. Expansion in credit loaned into existence (by banks) is followed by collapse because of the interest. You should also take a look at interest rates over the period (couldn't find an online chart).
We've been living on bubbles for the last 30 years (there are many smaller credit bubbles in the charts before that), and will continue to do so until the money men lose their influence with the state... It's been 300 years in the UK so far.
And the original poster just wanted to make a joke.
HTH.
it outsources the cost. It's then up to you to pay for enforcement. Not them...
And doing fine.
learn from Scotty. always double your estimates... Especially when they ask for an honest estimate.
I'm up to a multiple of 16 now.
Wanna make a $10,000 bet on the price?
I'm already making a much much bigger bet than that. On the order of several hundred k.
The oil price will go up till it kills the economy, puts millions out of work. Then it'll crash because nobody can afford it. Then as everthing recovers over the next couple of years it'll go back up again with demand. The specific price is going to depend on the level of inflation by the government.
There is a chart of whale oil prices which are a reasonable model of what's going to happen.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4672
Other commodities are recyclable. You can melt them down and reuse them. Oil, not. It's burned it's gone. Course we may switch to electric. Which means renewables, coal and primarily nuclear. But we have a huge oil infrastructure which would have to be replaced. Trillions of dollars. Which means lots of inflation and lots of recession.
Look up "Energy Return on Energy Invested".
Saudi oil has been 100:1.
Shale... 5:1 maybe, 3:1.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale
When they really start using shale, you know the shit is really hitting the fan.
And no matter how much is left (quoted in the reserve figures as recoverable), could be a trillion trillion barrels, nobody is going to bother trying to get it out when it takes a unit of energy in to get a unit of energy out.
If the unit of computation is to put a single character on the screen for example. Today, it requires several supercomputer class processors to do the same job as one 286 during the 80s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_e-book_readers
The phone market has always been looking for ways of extending battery life. I have a phone which is basically a computer with an antenna. It plays videos, music has wordprocessor, gps, maps etc and the battery still lasts up to 3 days.
The Singularity must come!
Real physical limits. Energy production. Getting rid of heat.
Course we could always go nuclear and resume the exponential increase in energy available per individual which has been driving progress for the last 100,000 years, and which stopped in the 1970s (it explains the no flying cars thing, and lack of moon habitats).
Lawyers. Legal protection.
Doctors. Legal protection.
Accountant. Legal protection.
What makes a typical profession a profession, is legal protection by the state. You can't just practice as a doctor on a whim, it is illegal to do so. It creates scarcity in the field, and therefore high prices.
Ironically, things normally thought of as trades; electricians, plumbers etc are in many countries increasingly being required to pass certifications and gain legal protection by the state, and are therefore becoming more professional and prices are going up.
Programming. Pretty much nothing required. Anyone can become a programmer on a whim and a "Learning Java" book. People contracting individual jobs like any other trade. It's pretty clear programming is a trade rather than a profession. Sorry, but these features of programming are going to continue to push prices down, not up, as the supply of programmers increases domestically or abroad.
If you want to reverse the trend you're going to have to create or join a professional body and lobby the state to make programming without a license, illegal. (using whatever criteria you think will sway the argument; dangerous, national security etc)
Any more.
Interestingly. The UK courts many many years ago decided you were loaning the money to them and therefore was theirs to do with as they wished. What the bank does is create a book keeping entry and assigns that to you. I guess you could try to describe that as your money.
Wherever people gather, there needs to be a chronicle, otherwise some authority in the future is going to make some arbitrary guess about what people believed or wanted.
And?
Paper.
http://ronja.twibright.com/optar/
Stone ain't a medium, it's a hard.
And a fireplace or wood burning stove.
Junk mail is great. Free heating.
What do you think History is but a lot of "personal craps" tied together?
What they victors tell us it is?
DG/UX