You can never account for every last variable. You can never 100% say that the "weather is going to do such and such on such and such date" because something might come along and change those conditions. The same with volcanoes and earthquakes.
Prediction is the 100% accurate forecasting of future events with out any error. Modeling, like is done with the weather, is done with a margin of error (I'm not sure how much so I won't even bother trying to guess). They are fairly accurate but never 100% over time.
So, to summarize what I just said:
Prediction: Accurate 100% of the time over any length of time Forecast/Modeling: Accurate to within a certain period of time (sometimes its really short, sometimes it isn't), at which point inaccuracies start happening
Now stuff like that IS predictable. Forecasting volcanic eruptions with any certainty? Or the weather? Have fun with that. I'll focus on what's important (damage control) and not worry about the rest.
The thing is, they can't. As others have pointed out from actually reading TFA, the software is to help prioritize disaster relief efforts, not predict the unpredictable.
Let me know how your fortune telling pans out (even so-called weather prediction is actually just a forecast based on statistical models that generally do not hold up, hence why such "predictions" can only be made with a degree of certainty leading up to a probability of 0 (for a non-event) or 1 (for an event) at the time predicted.
I never said I was getting rid of my VCR. I see the writing on the wall too. It's not good for analogue, especially the obscure stuff. Perhaps the laws will one day change for the better of consumers every where (and man will know when the end of the world will be, too/sarcasm).
I don't know. The US Government already gets an automatic, royalty-free grant on patents and copyrights IIRC. Wouldn't this idea be counter-intuitive in that regard?
The problem with software/computer related patents is two-fold. The first: Is it truly unique, or is it only unique because it involves a computer? The second is the plethora of prior art available for most so-called unique implementations.
Those two problems have a root cause: The USPTO does not have (any or) enough patent/trademark clerks to really search out all instances of prior-art and because of the large back log are encouraged to just rubber stamp everything they come across if/they/ (who could be below-average in knowledge about a particular field) don't know of any prior art off-hand.
Common knowledge (sense, or anything else that one generally considers as common) is NOT common.
You are right. I see above-average as being those over-achieving wizards of computing. I am no wizard, but nor am I Joe Schmoe using a computer only occasionally.
I use persistent cookies myself, but when I decide to clear them all out, I like knowing they are all cleared out. I no longer have that assurance (or option).
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Most of what is unpredictable is forecastable.
You can never account for every last variable. You can never 100% say that the "weather is going to do such and such on such and such date" because something might come along and change those conditions. The same with volcanoes and earthquakes.
The submission stinks in accuracy. Granted this is /. and is almost a 100% given.
No kidding.
See, I thought we already had software that could do that.
Samuel L. Clemens (with a degree of uncertainty (; )
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Statistics
Prediction is the 100% accurate forecasting of future events with out any error. Modeling, like is done with the weather, is done with a margin of error (I'm not sure how much so I won't even bother trying to guess). They are fairly accurate but never 100% over time.
So, to summarize what I just said:
Prediction: Accurate 100% of the time over any length of time
Forecast/Modeling: Accurate to within a certain period of time (sometimes its really short, sometimes it isn't), at which point inaccuracies start happening
Thanks, I think I'll some fun with this. (:
Now stuff like that IS predictable. Forecasting volcanic eruptions with any certainty? Or the weather? Have fun with that. I'll focus on what's important (damage control) and not worry about the rest.
Statistical analysis software at its best. (:
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Not predicted, statistically modeled with a great degree of accuracy (that is a hair worth splitting).
I should have realized this. /., once site that really had news for nerds on stuff that mattered. Now it's yellow-dog journalism at its best/worst.
The thing is, they can't. As others have pointed out from actually reading TFA, the software is to help prioritize disaster relief efforts, not predict the unpredictable.
Let me know how your fortune telling pans out (even so-called weather prediction is actually just a forecast based on statistical models that generally do not hold up, hence why such "predictions" can only be made with a degree of certainty leading up to a probability of 0 (for a non-event) or 1 (for an event) at the time predicted.
So they are claiming to be able to predict the unpredictable? I want absolute proof of their claims.
I never said I was getting rid of my VCR. I see the writing on the wall too. It's not good for analogue, especially the obscure stuff. Perhaps the laws will one day change for the better of consumers every where (and man will know when the end of the world will be, too /sarcasm).
I never said it wasn't. We are in complete agreement on this. Don't be so hostile.
I don't know. The US Government already gets an automatic, royalty-free grant on patents and copyrights IIRC. Wouldn't this idea be counter-intuitive in that regard?
VHS was an inferior format anyways. BetaMax ftw (unfortunately it lost the format wars).
The problem with software/computer related patents is two-fold. The first: Is it truly unique, or is it only unique because it involves a computer? The second is the plethora of prior art available for most so-called unique implementations.
Those two problems have a root cause: /they/ (who could be below-average in knowledge about a particular field) don't know of any prior art off-hand.
The USPTO does not have (any or) enough patent/trademark clerks to really search out all instances of prior-art and because of the large back log are encouraged to just rubber stamp everything they come across if
Common knowledge (sense, or anything else that one generally considers as common) is NOT common.
You are right. I see above-average as being those over-achieving wizards of computing. I am no wizard, but nor am I Joe Schmoe using a computer only occasionally.
nice way to be redundant.
I use persistent cookies myself, but when I decide to clear them all out, I like knowing they are all cleared out. I no longer have that assurance (or option).
lol
I'm hoping CCleaner will still get it, then.
Even I'm not prepared to do that and I don't consider myself average (nor above average, but whatever).