Graham Glass wrote:
>step 1:
>you create a custom virus that spreads easily,
>has no obvious symptoms, and lurks in your body
>for a pre-programmable amount of time before
>suddenly springing into action and killing you.
>it is only activated if your body contains
>certain characteristic genes. for example, you
>could create a version of this virus that only
>targets people with fair skin, or those with
>a chinese background.
Fortunately, we do not have this technology currently, and there are aspects of this step that may never be possible. I can't say that I've been working on bioterror weapons, but I've been doing molecular biology work as part of the human genome project (HGP) for 4 years now - the basic laboratory technique and technologies are similar or identical to what one would use if developing biological weapons. We simply do not understand fundamental biochemistry well enough to accomplish the tasks in step 1. There are thousands of researchers who would pay dearly to have such an understanding, as it would mean that many infectious diseases would be much easier to treat. We may have such an understanding of pathogen biology in a couple decades - this prophecy has been made for the past half century, however, so such a prediction is likely of little value.
As per the HGP providing the means for targeted bioweapons, I think in fact the reverse may be true. What is clear is that diverse human groups share an extraordinary genetic conservation. On average, individuals differ at only 1 in 1000 nucleotides (the DNA units). Most of these differences are single nucleotide substitutions (termed SNPs) in non-coding (non-protein making) DNA. I can see no way of using current technology to target a pathogen to a SNP.
As per larger differences, in most cases it is also unclear how to use this as a distinguishing factor for a targeted pathogen. How precisely would a virus preferentially infect (or harm) an individual with a certain level of melanin (skin pigment) production?
I find that the standard counter-argument is along the lines that "well, perhaps we don't know how to do this now, but in the future we probably will!" While this is a possibility, it's also not a useful argument for discussion, because it applies to any technological threat - perhaps in the future bioterrorism will not matter, because we will be overrun by a nanite ooze, or collapsed the planet after CERN generates a micro-black hole, etc, etc.
Currently, if you wanted to attack a single group, the available tech would seem to point to, ironically, non-transmissible agents like anthrax. So long as your target was geographically isolated, you could limit dispersal of the agent to that area.
Hmm. Perhaps an even cheaper method would be to simply launch a large advertising campaign encouraging smoking, targeted against the group you wished to harm. For a terror campaign this has the advantage of harming large numbers of the population and being legal in almost all countries, but the disadvantage that few people seem to be frightened by it.
Slashdot Mirror
Graham Glass wrote:
>step 1:
>you create a custom virus that spreads easily,
>has no obvious symptoms, and lurks in your body
>for a pre-programmable amount of time before
>suddenly springing into action and killing you.
>it is only activated if your body contains
>certain characteristic genes. for example, you
>could create a version of this virus that only
>targets people with fair skin, or those with
>a chinese background.
Fortunately, we do not have this technology currently, and there are aspects of this step that may never be possible. I can't say that I've been working on bioterror weapons, but I've been doing molecular biology work as part of the human genome project (HGP) for 4 years now - the basic laboratory technique and technologies are similar or identical to what one would use if developing biological weapons. We simply do not understand fundamental biochemistry well enough to accomplish the tasks in step 1. There are thousands of researchers who would pay dearly to have such an understanding, as it would mean that many infectious diseases would be much easier to treat. We may have such an understanding of pathogen biology in a couple decades - this prophecy has been made for the past half century, however, so such a prediction is likely of little value.
As per the HGP providing the means for targeted bioweapons, I think in fact the reverse may be true. What is clear is that diverse human groups share an extraordinary genetic conservation. On average, individuals differ at only 1 in 1000 nucleotides (the DNA units). Most of these differences are single nucleotide substitutions (termed SNPs) in non-coding (non-protein making) DNA. I can see no way of using current technology to target a pathogen to a SNP.
As per larger differences, in most cases it is also unclear how to use this as a distinguishing factor for a targeted pathogen. How precisely would a virus preferentially infect (or harm) an individual with a certain level of melanin (skin pigment) production?
I find that the standard counter-argument is along the lines that "well, perhaps we don't know how to do this now, but in the future we probably will!" While this is a possibility, it's also not a useful argument for discussion, because it applies to any technological threat - perhaps in the future bioterrorism will not matter, because we will be overrun by a nanite ooze, or collapsed the planet after CERN generates a micro-black hole, etc, etc.
Currently, if you wanted to attack a single group, the available tech would seem to point to, ironically, non-transmissible agents like anthrax. So long as your target was geographically isolated, you could limit dispersal of the agent to that area.
Hmm. Perhaps an even cheaper method would be to simply launch a large advertising campaign encouraging smoking, targeted against the group you wished to harm. For a terror campaign this has the advantage of harming large numbers of the population and being legal in almost all countries, but the disadvantage that few people seem to be frightened by it.
-Chuckan