That's a legitimate concern -- we turned it into a design challenge, and we think our design mitigates the concern sufficiently -- to the point where there is a large enough market to justify the investment. We also have confidence that our customers will be able to buy insurance for it.
Two points of clarification for the Slashdot community:
1) Terrafugia's first product, the Transition, is expected to hit the market in 2016 -- about two years from now. It is NOT autonomous. It is a single engine piston aircraft that can fold up its wings in less than 60 seconds, legally drive on roads and highways, and park in a single car garage. Our customers value the additional freedom and flexibility it provides them compared to "normal" aircraft, but you still must become at least a sport pilot in order to legally operate the Transition.
2) Terrafugia's TF-X is a product that is in the conceptual design stage (it is where the Transition was back in 2006). It is probably 8-12 years from market. The timeline will be significantly affected by how quickly the FAA adopts new ASTM standards for electric propulsion and fly-by-wire technologies for general aviation aircraft. TF-X will include a high level of human directed local autonomy (HDLA), but it is NOT totally autonomous. The operator is needed to make key high level decisions at critical phases of flight (e.g. is it safe to take-off? Is it safe to land here?). The operator is not cargo. They have the responsibility and authority for the safe operation of the vehicle. But TF-X allows it to be much easier to safely operate the vehicle by eliminating the need for traditional "pilot skills" like flight planning, memorizing cloud-clearance and visibility requirements in different classes of airspace, and traditional stick-and-rudder skills among other things. Our contention is that a system that relies on computers for nitty-gritty things that change very little, and the human to deal with things that could change dramatically (e.g. abort decisions and/or emergency scenarios) will result in a much safer, more robust overall system.
Statistically speaking, Loss Of Control (LOC) is the leading cause of fatal accidents in general aviation -- not a failure of the aircraft, but a failure of the pilot to maintain sufficiently low angle of attack during normal operations -- often on approach to landing -- a problem that could be directly addressed with full envelope protection enabled by new fly-by-wire technologies that incorporate this high degree of human directed local autonomy. With this type of system, it is possible to make flying personal aircraft significantly easier and safer. That is what we are trying to do: make personal aviation useful for a much larger segment of the population.
It's not an easy problem, but it's one with huge potential pay off (which is why there have been so many attempts in the past). It is unfortunate that the important subtleties of my talk at the MIT Tech Conference on Saturday did not get through to the original author of the story and that the critical difference between a fully autonomous aircraft and our TF-X concept is difficult to discern. For those who care about Terrafugia's efforts to make a practical flying car, I hope this comment is helpful. Check out www.terrafugia.com for more info.
-Carl
Slashdot Mirror
That's a legitimate concern -- we turned it into a design challenge, and we think our design mitigates the concern sufficiently -- to the point where there is a large enough market to justify the investment. We also have confidence that our customers will be able to buy insurance for it.
Two points of clarification for the Slashdot community: 1) Terrafugia's first product, the Transition, is expected to hit the market in 2016 -- about two years from now. It is NOT autonomous. It is a single engine piston aircraft that can fold up its wings in less than 60 seconds, legally drive on roads and highways, and park in a single car garage. Our customers value the additional freedom and flexibility it provides them compared to "normal" aircraft, but you still must become at least a sport pilot in order to legally operate the Transition. 2) Terrafugia's TF-X is a product that is in the conceptual design stage (it is where the Transition was back in 2006). It is probably 8-12 years from market. The timeline will be significantly affected by how quickly the FAA adopts new ASTM standards for electric propulsion and fly-by-wire technologies for general aviation aircraft. TF-X will include a high level of human directed local autonomy (HDLA), but it is NOT totally autonomous. The operator is needed to make key high level decisions at critical phases of flight (e.g. is it safe to take-off? Is it safe to land here?). The operator is not cargo. They have the responsibility and authority for the safe operation of the vehicle. But TF-X allows it to be much easier to safely operate the vehicle by eliminating the need for traditional "pilot skills" like flight planning, memorizing cloud-clearance and visibility requirements in different classes of airspace, and traditional stick-and-rudder skills among other things. Our contention is that a system that relies on computers for nitty-gritty things that change very little, and the human to deal with things that could change dramatically (e.g. abort decisions and/or emergency scenarios) will result in a much safer, more robust overall system. Statistically speaking, Loss Of Control (LOC) is the leading cause of fatal accidents in general aviation -- not a failure of the aircraft, but a failure of the pilot to maintain sufficiently low angle of attack during normal operations -- often on approach to landing -- a problem that could be directly addressed with full envelope protection enabled by new fly-by-wire technologies that incorporate this high degree of human directed local autonomy. With this type of system, it is possible to make flying personal aircraft significantly easier and safer. That is what we are trying to do: make personal aviation useful for a much larger segment of the population. It's not an easy problem, but it's one with huge potential pay off (which is why there have been so many attempts in the past). It is unfortunate that the important subtleties of my talk at the MIT Tech Conference on Saturday did not get through to the original author of the story and that the critical difference between a fully autonomous aircraft and our TF-X concept is difficult to discern. For those who care about Terrafugia's efforts to make a practical flying car, I hope this comment is helpful. Check out www.terrafugia.com for more info. -Carl