In an era of rapidly expanding space-based enterprises, the Russians have an incredible opportunity. The New Scientist article hints at the potential market for Buran's capabilities. There are, however, several important questions with difficult answered.
This program has been mothballed since 1990 and unfunded since 1992. How well have all the millions of components been maintained? For example, are there decaying O-Rings that are just waiting to fail? The majority of the turn-around time for the US Space shuttle is post-flight inspection, maintenance, and pre-flight inspection. Which components have weakened in the last decade and will they be found before a catastrophic failure.
In the 11 years since Buran was "put into the barn" how much technical skill has been lost? Without dragging this into an off-topic debate about military spending, the US Navy must purchase a new nuclear submarine every year or so simple to maintain the technical expertise of the thousands of specially trained engineers, welders, machinists, and other highly specialized technicians who build subs. Does Russia have the skills to support this program once the stockpiled rocket parts and fuel tanks are gone?
The Russians are perfectly poised to pull this off. There is already activity at the Baikonur Cosmodrome paying for the all the necessary infrastructure improvements (not to mention providing great advertising. Russian Engineer to international client-- "Hey, have you seen OUR shuttle?") Russia is also smart enough to see the potential in space tourism. Right or wrong, Denis Tito has issued in a new chapter in manned space flight; a chapter that NASA is prohibited from acknowledging currently.
Any AeroSpaceEngineers out there know how much demand there is for a launcher that can haul up 200 "tonnes" at a time (minus the weight of Buran itself of course)? Certainly, if Buran gets off the ground there will quickly be a demand as companies build larger satellites that require the special capabilites of a shuttle rather than a conventional unmanned booster. I wonder what the cost per unit weight will be and how it will compare to current lift systems.
The world is changing around us so fast that sometimes it's hard to see 10 days into the future, let alone 10 years. That doesn't mean we shouldn't look into the future. Quite the opposite is true-- it means we need to look that much harder! If all goes well, Buran may be the vehicle to catapult us all into space. (Pardon the pun.)
NASA Engineers seen fairly confident now that the tip hung-up because of thermal expansion in parts of the arm. Modern mishap analysis teaches that there is usually a series of things that collectively add up to a mishap. Thermal expansion could be one of the material causes (an other possibility being poor engineering), but what of human related causes?
Perhaps Voss and Helms were not a peak performance levels while starting the checks on the arm. Voss has been quoted as saying, the tip of the arm "held on for a little bit longer than it should have, and then the built-up forces allowed it to release. It just backed off a little bit, came back in and contacted the grapple fixture, and then bounced off again."
What were they doing while the arm was not responding as it should?
Look at the psychological factors the crew is experiencing. They has been onboard since mid-March. They have recently learned that their stay will be extended. They have dealt with a robotic arm that isn't working as it should. They have been frustrated by delays in installing the new airlock. And even Denis Tito talked about the grueling hours on mind-numbing tasks.
In June of '97, the Russian space station Mir suffered a nearly catastrophic mishap when a resupply ship collided with the space station. This mishap has since been at least partially attributed to human error. The cosmonaut at the controls was mentally exhausted from four month of living on a tiny ship that had experienced myriad problems already.
I think the future of space travel is going to see more psychologically related problems as we push ourselves for longer and longer. This isn't to say we should stop. We should instead forge ahead and learn as much as we possibly can from every moment.
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Thanks for the info on how the Buran really works. (That's what this is all about, right? Sharing information and learning from each other.)
Here's to cold weather launch technologies. Once again the Russians show their brilliance.
In an era of rapidly expanding space-based enterprises, the Russians have an incredible opportunity. The New Scientist article hints at the potential market for Buran's capabilities. There are, however, several important questions with difficult answered.
This program has been mothballed since 1990 and unfunded since 1992. How well have all the millions of components been maintained? For example, are there decaying O-Rings that are just waiting to fail? The majority of the turn-around time for the US Space shuttle is post-flight inspection, maintenance, and pre-flight inspection. Which components have weakened in the last decade and will they be found before a catastrophic failure.
In the 11 years since Buran was "put into the barn" how much technical skill has been lost? Without dragging this into an off-topic debate about military spending, the US Navy must purchase a new nuclear submarine every year or so simple to maintain the technical expertise of the thousands of specially trained engineers, welders, machinists, and other highly specialized technicians who build subs. Does Russia have the skills to support this program once the stockpiled rocket parts and fuel tanks are gone?
The Russians are perfectly poised to pull this off. There is already activity at the Baikonur Cosmodrome paying for the all the necessary infrastructure improvements (not to mention providing great advertising. Russian Engineer to international client-- "Hey, have you seen OUR shuttle?") Russia is also smart enough to see the potential in space tourism. Right or wrong, Denis Tito has issued in a new chapter in manned space flight; a chapter that NASA is prohibited from acknowledging currently.
Any AeroSpaceEngineers out there know how much demand there is for a launcher that can haul up 200 "tonnes" at a time (minus the weight of Buran itself of course)? Certainly, if Buran gets off the ground there will quickly be a demand as companies build larger satellites that require the special capabilites of a shuttle rather than a conventional unmanned booster. I wonder what the cost per unit weight will be and how it will compare to current lift systems.
The world is changing around us so fast that sometimes it's hard to see 10 days into the future, let alone 10 years. That doesn't mean we shouldn't look into the future. Quite the opposite is true-- it means we need to look that much harder! If all goes well, Buran may be the vehicle to catapult us all into space. (Pardon the pun.)
Although the Anonymous Coward was trying to be funny, he/she/it may have been on the right track. A recent article in Discover Magazine addresses the psychology problems associated with long durations in space.
NASA Engineers seen fairly confident now that the tip hung-up because of thermal expansion in parts of the arm. Modern mishap analysis teaches that there is usually a series of things that collectively add up to a mishap. Thermal expansion could be one of the material causes (an other possibility being poor engineering), but what of human related causes?
Perhaps Voss and Helms were not a peak performance levels while starting the checks on the arm. Voss has been quoted as saying, the tip of the arm "held on for a little bit longer than it should have, and then the built-up forces allowed it to release. It just backed off a little bit, came back in and contacted the grapple fixture, and then bounced off again." What were they doing while the arm was not responding as it should?
Look at the psychological factors the crew is experiencing. They has been onboard since mid-March. They have recently learned that their stay will be extended. They have dealt with a robotic arm that isn't working as it should. They have been frustrated by delays in installing the new airlock. And even Denis Tito talked about the grueling hours on mind-numbing tasks.
In June of '97, the Russian space station Mir suffered a nearly catastrophic mishap when a resupply ship collided with the space station. This mishap has since been at least partially attributed to human error. The cosmonaut at the controls was mentally exhausted from four month of living on a tiny ship that had experienced myriad problems already.
I think the future of space travel is going to see more psychologically related problems as we push ourselves for longer and longer. This isn't to say we should stop. We should instead forge ahead and learn as much as we possibly can from every moment.