Actually, somebody wrote a paper making just the same observation. It was mentioned a while back in EE-times, can't find it now (obviously). If somebody knows what I am talking about, please post a link.
In summary, the authors reviewed publications over the last 20 years or so and found out that the average time to the predicted end of Moore's law is 10 years, IIRC. E.g., papers published in 1980 predicted the end of Moore's law in 1990.
Looks like Intel's researches couldn't find the paper either when they made up the 15 year number.
Slashdot Mirror
Actually, somebody wrote a paper making just the same observation. It was mentioned a while back in EE-times, can't find it now (obviously). If somebody knows what I am talking about, please post a link. In summary, the authors reviewed publications over the last 20 years or so and found out that the average time to the predicted end of Moore's law is 10 years, IIRC. E.g., papers published in 1980 predicted the end of Moore's law in 1990. Looks like Intel's researches couldn't find the paper either when they made up the 15 year number.