The worst possible scenario would be for single patent holder to develop the killer app/device and that it becomes the standard.
Since that's unlikely to happen, I'm looking forward to any solution proposed by committee. Hell, let's give it to the IEEE or ISO--it can languish for years as the various parties bicker about standards.
Here are the issues I see that this committee are going to have to overcome:
Usability-- If Ozzie can't figure out the remote, he's not going to use it. A hardware solution offers more security, but I have yet to see a hardware interface that satisfied usability requirements. How many people in the world still have vcrs that still blink 12:00?
To make it usable, they are going to have to wrap it with software and that weakens the security enough that 'life will find a way' (thank you Norway, thank you Finland)
Distribution--
As people have said about Apple's initiative, the world is moving towards equal access to content production. Any solution that precludes the end user or small/independent source from distributing content for this 'device' is going to leave a significant market for alternative/broad-use devices that will interfere with adoption.
Hollywood had their best, but not total, control over content when you could only see a movie if you went to a theatre. Effective security is based upon "what you know and what you have." Possesion of the media is no longer sufficient; ie: ISO images and virtual CD drives. There are a myriad options for viewing and interoperability is the trend--not least of all is the internet as a common denominator. Fundamentally it's all just IP packets which gives our Norwegian friends something to work with.
Lowest common denominator-- Since interoperability is the trend, if the solution doesn't work on the hdtv, cable box and portable as well that will be another barrier to adoption.
Government-- As we've seen with cell phones and other technologies, the NSA isn't going to let any decent encryption technologies be mass marketed unless they have a backdoor or already have the computing power to negate the system.
None of these issues are showstoppers, but it will be interesting to see a committee address them.
Remember, the market is Joe Sixpack with cable; the bad guys are a relatively few nerds with computers. Few of these companies are going to be willing to spend the money to re-engineer the world with an effective solution just to appease a few copyright holders. One look at the cost benefit analysis would cause accounting departments around the world to go into fits of catatonia.
I predict spirited discussions to avoid legislative interference (remember this is the administration whose stated policy is to let industry police itself) and eventual implementation of some half-assed (cheap) stopgap
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Since that's unlikely to happen, I'm looking forward to any solution proposed by committee. Hell, let's give it to the IEEE or ISO--it can languish for years as the various parties bicker about standards. Here are the issues I see that this committee are going to have to overcome:
- Usability-- If Ozzie can't figure out the remote, he's not going to use it. A hardware solution offers more security, but I have yet to see a hardware interface that satisfied usability requirements. How many people in the world still have vcrs that still blink 12:00?
- Distribution--
- As people have said about Apple's initiative, the world is moving towards equal access to content production. Any solution that precludes the end user or small/independent source from distributing content for this 'device' is going to leave a significant market for alternative/broad-use devices that will interfere with adoption.
- Hollywood had their best, but not total, control over content when you could only see a movie if you went to a theatre. Effective security is based upon "what you know and what you have." Possesion of the media is no longer sufficient; ie: ISO images and virtual CD drives. There are a myriad options for viewing and interoperability is the trend--not least of all is the internet as a common denominator. Fundamentally it's all just IP packets which gives our Norwegian friends something to work with.
- Lowest common denominator-- Since interoperability is the trend, if the solution doesn't work on the hdtv, cable box and portable as well that will be another barrier to adoption.
- Government-- As we've seen with cell phones and other technologies, the NSA isn't going to let any decent encryption technologies be mass marketed unless they have a backdoor or already have the computing power to negate the system.
None of these issues are showstoppers, but it will be interesting to see a committee address them.To make it usable, they are going to have to wrap it with software and that weakens the security enough that 'life will find a way' (thank you Norway, thank you Finland)
Remember, the market is Joe Sixpack with cable; the bad guys are a relatively few nerds with computers. Few of these companies are going to be willing to spend the money to re-engineer the world with an effective solution just to appease a few copyright holders. One look at the cost benefit analysis would cause accounting departments around the world to go into fits of catatonia.
I predict spirited discussions to avoid legislative interference (remember this is the administration whose stated policy is to let industry police itself) and eventual implementation of some half-assed (cheap) stopgap