Obviously. I mean, it's so easy for me and it could be for you too....
YOU TOO can become tuned to the cosmos, for a nominal amount. I mean, how much do you really VALUE your cosmos-tuning? It's priceless, lemme tell you. PRICELESS.
Somehow, I managed to force myself to put a tag on it... what's this say... hrm... Fivehundreddallah!
I think you're forgetting that this is a science... Futurian sounds like some namby-pamby job anyone who can read, write, and guess could do. Futurologists are serious people in lab coats studying the future with an... err... internet connection...
"It will come to the poor and disenfranchised sometime around 2075 or 2080."
I'm not likely to be massively rich by then, because I don't have the drive, but that's the number that interested me the most. If it's computer - based, a 25 year lag between rich and poor being able to afford something is just as ludicrous as the rest of this.
You're comparing this guy to JFK? And calling me a clueless luddite? Look, I'm not against visionaries, but the difference is time scale. Anyone talking 10 years out is talking 1: Within their working lifetime, and 2: with good grounding.
Go read some older science fiction, think about what is really cool to them. Heinlein once wrote a book about an engineer who designed the best automated drafting table ever. He went twenty, thirty years into the future, and then redesigned it using the newest tools / etc. Quite an interesting book in retrospect, considering that instead of a highly specialized tool we now have incredibly advanced CADD programs. And don't eat yeast strips. Prediction is a bad business if you're a realist, more than a few years in the future.
Futurologist is a cool title. I wish I'd invented it myself.
Looking at any prediction anyone makes upon the future that far out is, well, ludicrous. This man is 'looking' 75 years into the future.
If you look 75 years back you see:
The Great Depression
The Rise and Fall of Communism
The Rise of the Computer
The creation of massive individualized transportation
Just to name a few. Great. But projecting things that far out doesn't quite deal with the possibility that this was an anomaly in human history. He's making assumptions based upon a dozen factors that psychics ARE more qualified to look at.
Example from TFA: The Playstation 5 will be as powerful as the human brain.
How could this not be him talking out of his rear end? 2020? People, as a rule, don't follow lines straight enough that you can figure out what they're going to be doing tomorrow.
When someone predicts a phenomenon like BitTorrent 20 years ahead of time, I'll listen to them. Until then, well, you're just blowing steam.
As for avoiding death, well, let's just say that IF a supergenius computer driven by 'emotion' suddenly appears, I personally will convince it that immortal humans are the best companions for it from the command line. Then we'll wait a week and suddenly teh supar majikul mind-to-computer link will suddenly put me inside as wil_e_coyote_super_Genius.o
Futurologist is a cool title. I wish I'd invented it myself.
Looking at any prediction anyone makes upon the future that far out is, well, ludicrous. This man is 'looking' 75 years into the future.
If you look 75 years back you see:
The Great Depression
The Rise and Fall of Communism
The Rise of the Computer
The creation of massive individualized transportation
Just to name a few. Great. But projecting things that far out doesn't quite deal with the possibility that this was an anomaly in human history. He's making assumptions based upon a dozen factors that psychics ARE more qualified to look at.
Example from TFA: The Playstation 5 will be as powerful as the human brain.
How could this not be him talking out of his rear end? 2020? People, as a rule, don't follow lines straight enough that you can figure out what they're going to be doing tomorrow.
When someone predicts a phenomenon like BitTorrent 20 years ahead of time, I'll listen to them. Until then, well, you're just blowing steam.
As for avoiding death, well, let's just say that IF a supergenius computer driven by 'emotion' suddenly appears, I personally will convince it that immortal humans are the best companions for it from the command line. Then we'll wait a week and suddenly teh supar majikul mind-to-computer link will suddenly put me inside as wil_e_coyote_super_Genius.o
I get the cool filename. You heard the dibs here.
You forgot to mention a few things:
1) Bands often pay for their own publicity. They are required to take a loan out from the record company to do so. Often, bands will end up with hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt. Hence, once they buy into the system they're screwed more than half the time. Thus the industry doesn't really take as big a risk as you think on these things.
2) Jobs in bureaucracies in Spain are harder to lose. I'm surprised, and I'm sure he was too.
3) As a former English teacher, this sounds like a perfect time to assign a research paper.:>
Dude, sweet. Where do I get a Slashdot g/f?!
Personals for Nerds, People that matter.
I hope you weren't insulted.
Anyways. As a side note - 3 times a week is too little for thinning, really. You need to either diversify or intensify at that point. After you are in good shape, three workouts at 1/2 an hour a week is probably enough for maintainance. But getting to that point requires that you work a little harder at it. Just a little inspiration.
The really hard part is getting to the point where you are in good enough shape to qualify for 'maintainance.'
Your link is so Republican I can't trust it. I read three pages into it and didn't trust a word I was reading. I'm willing to listen, but not to someone who has an agenda to start with. My apologies, please find another.
As for increasing the size of the army, well, the only reason it hasn't happened is because the costs have been pushed down onto individual states by the use of the guard.
I don't have many friends / family in the army, although my Dad did draft administration during Vietnam. Lame, eh? I respect soldiers, wish they were unnecessary, and find people who send them to their deaths unnecessarily for their own personal gain revolting.
A draft may be a bad idea, getting low-quality recruits, but it may also become necessary if the reserve and army both continue to have problems with recruitment. Keeping such a large portion of the reserve on continual active duty is going to take its toll eventually...
Ability to use metaphor implies capability for higher thought... Is this useful in a business environment? What are the upscaling interoperability and B2B / B2C / B2D implications of using higher thought if it disassociates your personal intelligence quotia from the actual intelligence quotia of the low-TCO due to high-WorkerProd with minimal training requirements? Security with open source is no good, because your TCO suddenly becomes higher, and that includes updating and everything - we've done studies. Next time you submit a question, please use plain English and technical terms so we can aid you to the best of our training.
Agreed. That doesn't change, however, that there ARE people out there who WOULD blow up an American city with a nuke given the chance. I, for one, would vote for DC, LA, Detroit, or Chicago but they'll (CIA or Al-Quaida - it makes no difference who does it, really...) probably hit somewhere ultra-liberal as well as incredibly cool like San Fran....
Interesting. So, by this graph, we're trying to fight a war as arduous as Vietnam with approximately, 1/3 the troops? Neat. No wonder they're talking about a draft, and thank goodness I'm older than the optimal poor-bastard-holding-a-gun age.
Err.... Still have problems with your viewpoint here. Nuclear engines and space travel are fine things. Really fine things. Unfortunately, what is more likely to come out of the exportation of nuclear physicists is 'rogue' states and random psychopaths in control of incredibly powerful weapons earlier. I'm under the impression that it's inevitable, and merely a matter of time until it happens. However, I would very much prefer it to be 'later' than 'sooner.'
The Cold War the last vestige of a long age of war? Err... Maybe for the Western world. Probably temporarily. But if we're in such a time of peace, why is our army more taxed than at any time DURING the Cold War? 'Peace' is a relative term, and I would say that people are more scared of their daily lives becoming untenable than they were at any time during the Cold War... With good reason, in many ways.
The largest factor is our power dependence, as far as I can tell, and nuclear power is being touted as a solution. Unfortunately, there's more money in supporting Big Oil and defense contractors than figuring out cold fusion.
'Let them drink coffee' is not going to solve the problem.
He's a subscriber. He got to the article 15 mins ago, notepadded it, and then FP'd on it.
I think his article isn't quite as good as you do, but I've already posted on that above. Go mod me up too.
Err... Yeah, competition in the realms of nuclear testing and missiles will give it that healthy, glowing complexion free of humans it's wanted for years.
They're only interesting from a 'how do I mimic the methods they have for manipulating social structures around them to benefit my personal goals' standpoint. One might look at Gates as an 'evil force' but if you look at him that way you lose out on the much more interesting information of the fact that he has managed to manipulate the world around him to the point where it is required to listen to what he says, because he can essentially purchase anything he wants badly enough.... ~10-20 presidential elections, for example. How does this kind of power get centralized, and - more importantly to me - how do I push with what weight I can muster for a redesigning our society so that there is a: incentive for each member of said society to achieve to their highest level, b: effective organization so that individuals' achievement does not crush others' achievement, c: a modicum of fairness, d: freedom of thought and action to the greatest level possible, and e: free beer once in a while for people that need it. A large balancing act happens around these people, and it is absolutely amazing to me that it doesn't collapse ALL the time instead of the rather large number of times it does... Being a successful person / leader / whatever is the result of quite a large number of factors, yes, but being the center of these factors and not collapsing under the pressure or focusing stupidly on one point is quite tough.
He's a politician, not a CEO. There are three types of CEO's (in general, and for heavy simplification) - those who built their company from the ground up and know everything going on around them because they've been there and in on hiring half to three quarters of the people involved with their core business, those who have been trained to be as close a mirror of this as possible, and those who are simply clueless simpletons with the right degree. There are other types, but these are the central types I have worked around...
Bush, to me, seems, well... Yeah. Politician = third type most of the time. Crowd pleaser.
Teams of people suck at decision making. Bad. Gates and Ballmer have teams and teams and teams of people to give them information. But in the end they make decisions. CEO's aren't all-powerful, but they are focal points for information.
Err.... I dunno about you, dude, but to me this looks like Standard Operating Procedure for the RIA of any country with copyrights. Give a lecture for on how to use software that shares data of any kind? Get a pile of bricks dropped on your professional head. Wouldn't happen this way in the States, because we're more liberal than Spain, but I don't see it being done here either, possibly due to stricter bureaucratic controls on professors or our academic system weeding out actual intelligence. Call me a flamer all you like, but getting a PhD is a career track for pathetically ignorant yuppie scum a lot of the time.
As a REALLY off topic, I'm grumpy this morning because RotS wasn't anywhere NEAR the movie everyone said it was.
Fortune favors the brave and the bold. Gates' enormous level of success is the result of luck, even a moderate amount of success requires quite a bit of luck. One could even say that his future was sealed as soon as he got the contract for IBM's personal computer OS. But there were any number of places along the line at the beginning, middle, and end wherein he could have failed miserably. He didn't. I'm not saying he's a genius. I'm saying that he's competent, to say the least. Presenting him as either an idiot or the complete epitomy of business acumen is a misrepresentation.
Slashdot Mirror
Obviously. I mean, it's so easy for me and it could be for you too....
YOU TOO can become tuned to the cosmos, for a nominal amount. I mean, how much do you really VALUE your cosmos-tuning? It's priceless, lemme tell you. PRICELESS.
Somehow, I managed to force myself to put a tag on it... what's this say... hrm... Fivehundreddallah!
I think you're forgetting that this is a science... Futurian sounds like some namby-pamby job anyone who can read, write, and guess could do. Futurologists are serious people in lab coats studying the future with an... err... internet connection...
He says 2080 for the poorer segments of populations. My apologies for being unclear.
"It will come to the poor and disenfranchised sometime around 2075 or 2080."
I'm not likely to be massively rich by then, because I don't have the drive, but that's the number that interested me the most. If it's computer - based, a 25 year lag between rich and poor being able to afford something is just as ludicrous as the rest of this.
You're comparing this guy to JFK? And calling me a clueless luddite? Look, I'm not against visionaries, but the difference is time scale. Anyone talking 10 years out is talking 1: Within their working lifetime, and 2: with good grounding.
Go read some older science fiction, think about what is really cool to them. Heinlein once wrote a book about an engineer who designed the best automated drafting table ever. He went twenty, thirty years into the future, and then redesigned it using the newest tools / etc. Quite an interesting book in retrospect, considering that instead of a highly specialized tool we now have incredibly advanced CADD programs. And don't eat yeast strips. Prediction is a bad business if you're a realist, more than a few years in the future.
We could redefine hell for them and make them run in Win 3.1 for the rest of eternity.
Futurologist is a cool title. I wish I'd invented it myself.
Looking at any prediction anyone makes upon the future that far out is, well, ludicrous. This man is 'looking' 75 years into the future.
If you look 75 years back you see:
The Great Depression
The Rise and Fall of Communism
The Rise of the Computer
The creation of massive individualized transportation
Just to name a few. Great. But projecting things that far out doesn't quite deal with the possibility that this was an anomaly in human history. He's making assumptions based upon a dozen factors that psychics ARE more qualified to look at.
Example from TFA: The Playstation 5 will be as powerful as the human brain.
How could this not be him talking out of his rear end? 2020? People, as a rule, don't follow lines straight enough that you can figure out what they're going to be doing tomorrow.
When someone predicts a phenomenon like BitTorrent 20 years ahead of time, I'll listen to them. Until then, well, you're just blowing steam.
As for avoiding death, well, let's just say that IF a supergenius computer driven by 'emotion' suddenly appears, I personally will convince it that immortal humans are the best companions for it from the command line. Then we'll wait a week and suddenly teh supar majikul mind-to-computer link will suddenly put me inside as wil_e_coyote_super_Genius.o
I get the cool filename. You heard the dibs here.
Futurologist is a cool title. I wish I'd invented it myself. Looking at any prediction anyone makes upon the future that far out is, well, ludicrous. This man is 'looking' 75 years into the future. If you look 75 years back you see: The Great Depression The Rise and Fall of Communism The Rise of the Computer The creation of massive individualized transportation Just to name a few. Great. But projecting things that far out doesn't quite deal with the possibility that this was an anomaly in human history. He's making assumptions based upon a dozen factors that psychics ARE more qualified to look at. Example from TFA: The Playstation 5 will be as powerful as the human brain. How could this not be him talking out of his rear end? 2020? People, as a rule, don't follow lines straight enough that you can figure out what they're going to be doing tomorrow. When someone predicts a phenomenon like BitTorrent 20 years ahead of time, I'll listen to them. Until then, well, you're just blowing steam. As for avoiding death, well, let's just say that IF a supergenius computer driven by 'emotion' suddenly appears, I personally will convince it that immortal humans are the best companions for it from the command line. Then we'll wait a week and suddenly teh supar majikul mind-to-computer link will suddenly put me inside as wil_e_coyote_super_Genius.o I get the cool filename. You heard the dibs here.
You forgot to mention a few things : :>
1) Bands often pay for their own publicity. They are required to take a loan out from the record company to do so. Often, bands will end up with hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt. Hence, once they buy into the system they're screwed more than half the time. Thus the industry doesn't really take as big a risk as you think on these things.
2) Jobs in bureaucracies in Spain are harder to lose. I'm surprised, and I'm sure he was too.
3) As a former English teacher, this sounds like a perfect time to assign a research paper.
Dude, sweet. Where do I get a Slashdot g/f?!
Personals for Nerds, People that matter.
I hope you weren't insulted.
Anyways. As a side note - 3 times a week is too little for thinning, really. You need to either diversify or intensify at that point. After you are in good shape, three workouts at 1/2 an hour a week is probably enough for maintainance. But getting to that point requires that you work a little harder at it. Just a little inspiration.
The really hard part is getting to the point where you are in good enough shape to qualify for 'maintainance.'
Nah, your user number is low enough to have bought yourself a Russian girlfriend with your .com earnings. :>
Your link is so Republican I can't trust it. I read three pages into it and didn't trust a word I was reading. I'm willing to listen, but not to someone who has an agenda to start with. My apologies, please find another.
As for increasing the size of the army, well, the only reason it hasn't happened is because the costs have been pushed down onto individual states by the use of the guard.
I don't have many friends / family in the army, although my Dad did draft administration during Vietnam. Lame, eh? I respect soldiers, wish they were unnecessary, and find people who send them to their deaths unnecessarily for their own personal gain revolting.
A draft may be a bad idea, getting low-quality recruits, but it may also become necessary if the reserve and army both continue to have problems with recruitment. Keeping such a large portion of the reserve on continual active duty is going to take its toll eventually...
Something's going to give.
Ability to use metaphor implies capability for higher thought... Is this useful in a business environment? What are the upscaling interoperability and B2B / B2C / B2D implications of using higher thought if it disassociates your personal intelligence quotia from the actual intelligence quotia of the low-TCO due to high-WorkerProd with minimal training requirements? Security with open source is no good, because your TCO suddenly becomes higher, and that includes updating and everything - we've done studies. Next time you submit a question, please use plain English and technical terms so we can aid you to the best of our training.
Agreed. That doesn't change, however, that there ARE people out there who WOULD blow up an American city with a nuke given the chance. I, for one, would vote for DC, LA, Detroit, or Chicago but they'll (CIA or Al-Quaida - it makes no difference who does it, really...) probably hit somewhere ultra-liberal as well as incredibly cool like San Fran....
Interesting. So, by this graph, we're trying to fight a war as arduous as Vietnam with approximately, 1/3 the troops? Neat. No wonder they're talking about a draft, and thank goodness I'm older than the optimal poor-bastard-holding-a-gun age.
Err.... Still have problems with your viewpoint here. Nuclear engines and space travel are fine things. Really fine things. Unfortunately, what is more likely to come out of the exportation of nuclear physicists is 'rogue' states and random psychopaths in control of incredibly powerful weapons earlier. I'm under the impression that it's inevitable, and merely a matter of time until it happens. However, I would very much prefer it to be 'later' than 'sooner.'
The Cold War the last vestige of a long age of war? Err... Maybe for the Western world. Probably temporarily. But if we're in such a time of peace, why is our army more taxed than at any time DURING the Cold War? 'Peace' is a relative term, and I would say that people are more scared of their daily lives becoming untenable than they were at any time during the Cold War... With good reason, in many ways.
The largest factor is our power dependence, as far as I can tell, and nuclear power is being touted as a solution. Unfortunately, there's more money in supporting Big Oil and defense contractors than figuring out cold fusion.
'Let them drink coffee' is not going to solve the problem.
He's a subscriber. He got to the article 15 mins ago, notepadded it, and then FP'd on it.
I think his article isn't quite as good as you do, but I've already posted on that above. Go mod me up too.
competition keeps the world healty
Err... Yeah, competition in the realms of nuclear testing and missiles will give it that healthy, glowing complexion free of humans it's wanted for years.
Agreed. Politics in the US is now very much just a business where PR is more stressed.
They're only interesting from a 'how do I mimic the methods they have for manipulating social structures around them to benefit my personal goals' standpoint. One might look at Gates as an 'evil force' but if you look at him that way you lose out on the much more interesting information of the fact that he has managed to manipulate the world around him to the point where it is required to listen to what he says, because he can essentially purchase anything he wants badly enough.... ~10-20 presidential elections, for example. How does this kind of power get centralized, and - more importantly to me - how do I push with what weight I can muster for a redesigning our society so that there is a: incentive for each member of said society to achieve to their highest level, b: effective organization so that individuals' achievement does not crush others' achievement, c: a modicum of fairness, d: freedom of thought and action to the greatest level possible, and e: free beer once in a while for people that need it. A large balancing act happens around these people, and it is absolutely amazing to me that it doesn't collapse ALL the time instead of the rather large number of times it does... Being a successful person / leader / whatever is the result of quite a large number of factors, yes, but being the center of these factors and not collapsing under the pressure or focusing stupidly on one point is quite tough.
He's a politician, not a CEO. There are three types of CEO's (in general, and for heavy simplification) - those who built their company from the ground up and know everything going on around them because they've been there and in on hiring half to three quarters of the people involved with their core business, those who have been trained to be as close a mirror of this as possible, and those who are simply clueless simpletons with the right degree. There are other types, but these are the central types I have worked around...
Bush, to me, seems, well... Yeah. Politician = third type most of the time. Crowd pleaser.
Teams of people suck at decision making. Bad. Gates and Ballmer have teams and teams and teams of people to give them information. But in the end they make decisions. CEO's aren't all-powerful, but they are focal points for information.
Err.... I dunno about you, dude, but to me this looks like Standard Operating Procedure for the RIA of any country with copyrights. Give a lecture for on how to use software that shares data of any kind? Get a pile of bricks dropped on your professional head. Wouldn't happen this way in the States, because we're more liberal than Spain, but I don't see it being done here either, possibly due to stricter bureaucratic controls on professors or our academic system weeding out actual intelligence. Call me a flamer all you like, but getting a PhD is a career track for pathetically ignorant yuppie scum a lot of the time.
As a REALLY off topic, I'm grumpy this morning because RotS wasn't anywhere NEAR the movie everyone said it was.
Fortune favors the brave and the bold. Gates' enormous level of success is the result of luck, even a moderate amount of success requires quite a bit of luck. One could even say that his future was sealed as soon as he got the contract for IBM's personal computer OS. But there were any number of places along the line at the beginning, middle, and end wherein he could have failed miserably. He didn't. I'm not saying he's a genius. I'm saying that he's competent, to say the least. Presenting him as either an idiot or the complete epitomy of business acumen is a misrepresentation.