" Is programming like manufacturing, or like physics? We sometimes hear of enormous software projects that are canceled after running years behind schedule. On the other hand, there are software engineering methodologies (inspired by similar methodologies in manufacturing) that claim (or hint at) objective estimation of project complexity and development schedules. With objective schedule estimates, projects should never run late. Are these failed software projects not using proper software engineering, or is there a deeper problem?" Read on for one man's well-argued answer, which casts doubt on most software-delivery predictions, and hits on a few of the famous latecomers."
(It says you really don't want to be held to the same standards as engineers: estimating software schedules, number of remaining bugs, etc. is much harder than building another bridge.)
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Especially, there was an article showing that objective estimation of development times is mathematically impossible:
http://cellar.org/archive/index.php/t-638.html
http://developers.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=01/1 1/05/1410251&mode=thread
" Is programming like manufacturing, or like physics? We sometimes hear of enormous software projects that are canceled after running years behind schedule. On the other hand, there are software engineering methodologies (inspired by similar methodologies in manufacturing) that claim (or hint at) objective estimation of project complexity and development schedules. With objective schedule estimates, projects should never run late. Are these failed software projects not using proper software engineering, or is there a deeper problem?" Read on for one man's well-argued answer, which casts doubt on most software-delivery predictions, and hits on a few of the famous latecomers."
(It says you really don't want to be held to the same standards as engineers: estimating software schedules, number of remaining bugs, etc. is much harder than building another bridge.)