I'm sure this has been mentioned before but VOD will replace DVD the same way DVD replaced VHS. It will happen just like VHS replaced cable and cable killed the networks which ended theatrical distribution of films. Perhaps the only "class" of entertainment distribution technology that didn't kill off its predecessors is satellite which was pronounced to be "redundant" by tech journalists in the early nineties. Following that thought its notable that the American public only adopts technology that's been deemed "acceptable" by the press so Beta is the dominant form of analog video tape format. Tech journalists need to understand that when it comes to predictions regarding consumer adoption of entertainment distribution technology nobody knows what will happen. I worked for a large Pay TV service (now part of media conglom that includes a rather large ISP) during its steepest growth curve in the early 80s. In 1980 along with 10 or so other bright young brains I sat on a "blue ribbon panel" charged with predicting when VOD would be a technological reality and what [Pat TV Service] should do to prepare. Our answer as to when: 2000 AD. The sole technological hurdle we saw was the price of RAM. Bandwidth was deemed to be irrelevant. Even when the predictions are semi accurate they are almost always for the wrong reason.
The only other advice I would give anyone involved in tech prognostication is to analyses what the big media congloms are up to in this area. See where they are investing and the solutions they are developing for
delivering their product. The universal rule regarding these efforts is that they will fail. Invariably these projects exist to short circuit the evolutionary process of technology adoption and dictate features and capabilities they are self serving, redundant and costly.
But regarding VOD vs DVD I was confused which is probably due to a hasty reading more than anything. DVD is MPEG2 (VOB format but still MPEG2). Most existing VOD uses MPEG2 and have begun to move to MPEG4. So if DVD is truly dead what is the compression standard VOD will be using? Windows Media 9 ? I don't think so.
But I really don't know.
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I'm sure this has been mentioned before but VOD will replace DVD the same way DVD replaced VHS. It will happen just like VHS replaced cable and cable killed the networks which ended theatrical distribution of films. Perhaps the only "class" of entertainment distribution technology that didn't kill off its predecessors is satellite which was pronounced to be "redundant" by tech journalists in the early nineties. Following that thought its notable that the American public only adopts technology that's been deemed "acceptable" by the press so Beta is the dominant form of analog video tape format. Tech journalists need to understand that when it comes to predictions regarding consumer adoption of entertainment distribution technology nobody knows what will happen. I worked for a large Pay TV service (now part of media conglom that includes a rather large ISP) during its steepest growth curve in the early 80s. In 1980 along with 10 or so other bright young brains I sat on a "blue ribbon panel" charged with predicting when VOD would be a technological reality and what [Pat TV Service] should do to prepare. Our answer as to when: 2000 AD. The sole technological hurdle we saw was the price of RAM. Bandwidth was deemed to be irrelevant. Even when the predictions are semi accurate they are almost always for the wrong reason. The only other advice I would give anyone involved in tech prognostication is to analyses what the big media congloms are up to in this area. See where they are investing and the solutions they are developing for delivering their product. The universal rule regarding these efforts is that they will fail. Invariably these projects exist to short circuit the evolutionary process of technology adoption and dictate features and capabilities they are self serving, redundant and costly. But regarding VOD vs DVD I was confused which is probably due to a hasty reading more than anything. DVD is MPEG2 (VOB format but still MPEG2). Most existing VOD uses MPEG2 and have begun to move to MPEG4. So if DVD is truly dead what is the compression standard VOD will be using? Windows Media 9 ? I don't think so. But I really don't know.