I swapped IT for Finance (Risk) a few months ago and found three things really helpful in thinking through whether to change or not:
1) GROW is a framework for thinking about what you want from life:
- Goals (what you want from life, what is it that really enthuses you and you can't help but share with your gf/wife/family)
- Reality (where you are today - strengths as well as weaknesses, industry as well as personal)
- Options (ways of achieving Goals given Reality)
- Will (pick an option and do it!)
2) Talking to a professional career coach who helped me think through what I wanted from my life and my career was a *huge* help, easily worth the cost
3) Interview my friends about their jobs - I found out very quickly that those who had careers I was jealous of were actually doing jobs I'd hate (my Goals would not have been met doing them). Hugely helpful.
It takes time to think these things through if you want to get it right - don't make any rash decisions.
Also, you've assumed that your probability of winning is independant of history - I suspect that serial winners have better odds of winning than novices!
Slashdot Mirror
I swapped IT for Finance (Risk) a few months ago and found three things really helpful in thinking through whether to change or not:
1) GROW is a framework for thinking about what you want from life:
- Goals (what you want from life, what is it that really enthuses you and you can't help but share with your gf/wife/family)
- Reality (where you are today - strengths as well as weaknesses, industry as well as personal)
- Options (ways of achieving Goals given Reality)
- Will (pick an option and do it!)
2) Talking to a professional career coach who helped me think through what I wanted from my life and my career was a *huge* help, easily worth the cost
3) Interview my friends about their jobs - I found out very quickly that those who had careers I was jealous of were actually doing jobs I'd hate (my Goals would not have been met doing them). Hugely helpful.
It takes time to think these things through if you want to get it right - don't make any rash decisions.
Good luck!
The difference being that with one you control the risk, with the other you delegate it.
I think that you're slightly over estimating your chances of winning:
... = 0.09
P(not losing)=p(win)*p(retire) + p(win)*p(play again)*p(win)*p(retire) + p(win)*p(play again)*p(win)*p(play again)*p(win)*p(retire)+...
P(not losing)=0.5*0.1 + 0.5*0.9*0.5*0.1 + 0.5*0.9*0.5*0.9*0.5*0.1 +
Also, you've assumed that your probability of winning is independant of history - I suspect that serial winners have better odds of winning than novices!