Hmmm... didn't read the "credible link" bit relating to the 10 years fact (oops...). The guy who said it was James Lovelock (the author of the GAIA hypotheses/theory) when asked about the likelihood / effects of global warming on this years (2004/5) Christmas Lectures on Channel4 in the UK. (another link).
He was referring to the "point of no return", after which there will be nothing we can do to stop global warming from melting the ice caps, not that Antarctica will melt in 10 years time. He was refering to the fact that the current CO2 levels in the Earth are around 370 ppm, and if it gets close to 400 ppm, then global warming will be unstopable. CO2 levels are currently rising at a rate of 2~3 ppm a year (which is where the 10 years fact comes from).
Uh, the glaciers on Antarctica are continuously moving, and rebuilding. Snow falls year after year, after year, and the glaciers keep moving, and rebuilding.
They are continuously moving, but the sea ice shelf is holding back the glaciers from moving a lot faster, which has allowed so much ice to form on Antarctica. If the sea ice melts, all the glaciers would be able to "dump" their ice (which is currently over land) into the oceans, which would raise the water levels. It is not necesarrily the melting of the ice over Antarctica itself that will cause the sea levels to rise.
And, yes, the glaciers are moving faster. And, yes, this could - eventually - effect water levels. And, no, there is no possible way that this would happen within 10 years time. There is a mere outside chance that it may happen over the next 200 (two hundred) years.
Its not that it will occur in 10 years, but if we don't change the way that we currently use fossil fuels etc... it will be very hard to stop Antarctica melting within that 200 year timeframe, due to positive feedback in out atmosphere. (look to Venus for how positive feedback can occur, and how its atmosphere ended up as a 400 deg C maelstrom, as opposed to Earth, an essentially similar planet)
What we don't know is how much we can effect this change - in either direction.
What we do know is that CO2 levels are the highes they have been since known atmospheric history (420,000 years) and that CO2 levels have had a close correlation to temperature over that period. (Although we dont know that they are causally linked.)
Whilst we don't know how much we can affect this change, we do know that if we carry on as we are, things will certainly not get better, and warmer weather is not necessarily better, ~14,000 excess deaths occurred from heat related problems in France during Summer 2003, which is a lot more than the ~3,000 who died in 9/11. (Although 9/11 showed how bad the USA's homeland security was at the time - all the flights took off from US airports on internal flights.)
Is there an analogy between this and meteors? We keep not seeing little ones until they're on us or even past us - is it the same with icebergs?
Probably:), although there hasn't been such a big iceberg from Antarctica for quite a while (Refering to Iceberg B-15 / B-15A, which has been around since March 2000, causing starvation of ALL penguin chicks due to inability of their parents to get food because of much greater quantities of sea ice in McMurdo Sound).
If a big section of ice were to break up, would it affect sealevel in a significant way? Even if we know these bergs won't, how much warning will we get before a a big one happens?
Its not the fact that the sea ice breaks up, its the fact that the sea ice is holding back billions of tonnes of ice that is currently on Antartica, which would raise sea levels, and sea levels only have to rise by a small amount 30 to 40 cm / 1 foot for catastrophy to occur. huge areas of the world will become submerged, many millions (possibly billions) of people will be displaced.
In Green mars a large portion of antarctica breaks up, raising Earth's sealevel by around 8 metres. Though it's not due to happen 'til 2127.
Whilst Green Mars is fiction, the rise in sea levels caused when Antartica does melt aren't, and at the rate we're going, the melting of the Antartic ice will be inevitable in less than 10 years time, due to positive reinforcement from the amount of CO2 that humans are pumping into the environment (SUV's, Air planes, Coal / Gas fired powerstations etc...).
Slashdot Mirror
I can understand your sentiment, I tried not to be misleading, but obviously failed :)
:)
Cheers for the clarification on other stuff
Hmmm... didn't read the "credible link" bit relating to the 10 years fact (oops...). The guy who said it was James Lovelock (the author of the GAIA hypotheses/theory) when asked about the likelihood / effects of global warming on this years (2004/5) Christmas Lectures on Channel4 in the UK. (another link).
He was referring to the "point of no return", after which there will be nothing we can do to stop global warming from melting the ice caps, not that Antarctica will melt in 10 years time. He was refering to the fact that the current CO2 levels in the Earth are around 370 ppm, and if it gets close to 400 ppm, then global warming will be unstopable. CO2 levels are currently rising at a rate of 2~3 ppm a year (which is where the 10 years fact comes from).
Uh, the glaciers on Antarctica are continuously moving, and rebuilding. Snow falls year after year, after year, and the glaciers keep moving, and rebuilding.
They are continuously moving, but the sea ice shelf is holding back the glaciers from moving a lot faster, which has allowed so much ice to form on Antarctica. If the sea ice melts, all the glaciers would be able to "dump" their ice (which is currently over land) into the oceans, which would raise the water levels. It is not necesarrily the melting of the ice over Antarctica itself that will cause the sea levels to rise.
And, yes, the glaciers are moving faster. And, yes, this could - eventually - effect water levels. And, no, there is no possible way that this would happen within 10 years time. There is a mere outside chance that it may happen over the next 200 (two hundred) years.
Its not that it will occur in 10 years, but if we don't change the way that we currently use fossil fuels etc... it will be very hard to stop Antarctica melting within that 200 year timeframe, due to positive feedback in out atmosphere. (look to Venus for how positive feedback can occur, and how its atmosphere ended up as a 400 deg C maelstrom, as opposed to Earth, an essentially similar planet)
What we don't know is how much we can effect this change - in either direction.
What we do know is that CO2 levels are the highes they have been since known atmospheric history (420,000 years) and that CO2 levels have had a close correlation to temperature over that period. (Although we dont know that they are causally linked.)
Whilst we don't know how much we can affect this change, we do know that if we carry on as we are, things will certainly not get better, and warmer weather is not necessarily better, ~14,000 excess deaths occurred from heat related problems in France during Summer 2003, which is a lot more than the ~3,000 who died in 9/11. (Although 9/11 showed how bad the USA's homeland security was at the time - all the flights took off from US airports on internal flights.)
Is there an analogy between this and meteors? We keep not seeing little ones until they're on us or even past us - is it the same with icebergs?
:), although there hasn't been such a big iceberg from Antarctica for quite a while (Refering to Iceberg B-15 / B-15A, which has been around since March 2000, causing starvation of ALL penguin chicks due to inability of their parents to get food because of much greater quantities of sea ice in McMurdo Sound).
Probably
If a big section of ice were to break up, would it affect sealevel in a significant way? Even if we know these bergs won't, how much warning will we get before a a big one happens?
Its not the fact that the sea ice breaks up, its the fact that the sea ice is holding back billions of tonnes of ice that is currently on Antartica, which would raise sea levels, and sea levels only have to rise by a small amount 30 to 40 cm / 1 foot for catastrophy to occur. huge areas of the world will become submerged, many millions (possibly billions) of people will be displaced.
In Green mars a large portion of antarctica breaks up, raising Earth's sealevel by around 8 metres. Though it's not due to happen 'til 2127.
Whilst Green Mars is fiction, the rise in sea levels caused when Antartica does melt aren't, and at the rate we're going, the melting of the Antartic ice will be inevitable in less than 10 years time, due to positive reinforcement from the amount of CO2 that humans are pumping into the environment (SUV's, Air planes, Coal / Gas fired powerstations etc...).
But I guess the good news is for every post who dosn't get it there are 4-5 people correcting them.
:D
The same 4-5 people?
$0.01 per 10 Americans? :D
just like the IUPAC spell aluminium "aluminum" and caesium "cesium"
:D
when will they learn?