"Science doesn't deal in certainties, it deals with probabilities"
Science does deal in certainty. Science requires the use of probabilities when the underlying principles of an occurrence are unknown, not fully understood, or the degree to which accuracy is required is so minute or large, that existing technology is unable to measure precise observations.
What any human is saying when stating certainty is: Given A, B, & C are true, D will occur. When a scientist understands all the variables that impact an action, he is able, with absolute certainty, to predict the outcome.
Now, what I think you're trying to say is that, since we can't possibly know and hold every variable in the universe in our immediate focus, we can't be certain of anything. Incorrect. Improper use of the concept "certain." Certainty has nothing whatsoever to do with omniscience or infallibility. As we continue to gather data, and integrate our observations into our existing knowledge, we build upon our hierarchy of concepts. At a time when probability might have been used to predict an outcome, we replace it with the certainty of a specific outcome. Why? Because we have no doubts. We don't even doubt that there are variables we are unaware of.
All knowledge rests on a hierarchical structure of concepts.
You are correct in stating that humans make decisions within a given context of knowledge. However, one shouldn't divorce an answer from the purpose of one's question. How accurate do you want to get? And, more importantly, what is the purpose of being so accurate?
Rob: Will the sun rise tomorrow? Bill: Well, why do you want to know? Rob: I want to see if I should go to work today. If the sun doesn't rise, then that's pretty much the end of the world, so I won't go. Bill: Are there any facts that would give you doubt? Has it ever not risen? Rob: No. Bill: Then you can be certain it will rise.
This is key. Certainty has to do with the absence of doubt. What are my variables? Am I missing any for the purpose of my prediction? Life would be impossible if every decision was based on doubt.
What useful question can you imagine a scientist would ask so as not to hold as an absolute, the rising of the sun? Or Earth's orbit?
"We will never know what happens inside of a black hole."
Slashdot Mirror
"Science doesn't deal in certainties, it deals with probabilities"
Science does deal in certainty. Science requires the use of probabilities when the underlying principles of an occurrence are unknown, not fully understood, or the degree to which accuracy is required is so minute or large, that existing technology is unable to measure precise observations.
What any human is saying when stating certainty is: Given A, B, & C are true, D will occur. When a scientist understands all the variables that impact an action, he is able, with absolute certainty, to predict the outcome.
Now, what I think you're trying to say is that, since we can't possibly know and hold every variable in the universe in our immediate focus, we can't be certain of anything. Incorrect. Improper use of the concept "certain." Certainty has nothing whatsoever to do with omniscience or infallibility. As we continue to gather data, and integrate our observations into our existing knowledge, we build upon our hierarchy of concepts. At a time when probability might have been used to predict an outcome, we replace it with the certainty of a specific outcome. Why? Because we have no doubts. We don't even doubt that there are variables we are unaware of.
All knowledge rests on a hierarchical structure of concepts.
You are correct in stating that humans make decisions within a given context of knowledge. However, one shouldn't divorce an answer from the purpose of one's question. How accurate do you want to get? And, more importantly, what is the purpose of being so accurate?
Rob: Will the sun rise tomorrow?
Bill: Well, why do you want to know?
Rob: I want to see if I should go to work today. If the sun doesn't rise, then that's pretty much the end of the world, so I won't go.
Bill: Are there any facts that would give you doubt? Has it ever not risen?
Rob: No.
Bill: Then you can be certain it will rise.
This is key. Certainty has to do with the absence of doubt. What are my variables? Am I missing any for the purpose of my prediction? Life would be impossible if every decision was based on doubt.
What useful question can you imagine a scientist would ask so as not to hold as an absolute, the rising of the sun? Or Earth's orbit?
"We will never know what happens inside of a black hole."
Really? Wow. Thanks for the scientific certainty.