P.S. Since doing that bit of research, every time Google checks my spelling and responds with "did you mean..." the hair stands on the back of my neck:)
But it's more than processing speed. It needs to have the software to do things like decision making, analysis, reasoning, evaluating, judging, information-organizing, learning, logic etc. which would normally require a human to perform.
Projecting forward to what Google or Windows will be like in 2015 is like trying to track a flea through a hurricane.
So much is poised for profoundly accelerating deep, wide and powerful change, there are much bigger questions about 2015 and beyond.
Technology, as Alvin Toffler, Verner Vinge, and ray Kurzweil have made the case, is self-accelerating. In an ever quickening loop, technology inherently accelerates in speed, magnitude and scope while dropping in cost.
That's because technology is driven by innovation, and the whole point of innovation is to find better ways to do things. If it isn't faster, more powerful, useful to more people, cheaper etc., it isn't any better. And so the speed, power and social effects of technological evolution, feeding on itself, ever accelerate.
The self evident logic in the above paragraph is simple to understand, but hard as hell to accept. The reality and implications of this short, simple text strains the imagination. But whether planning the future of a country, company or family, imagine we must, because a truly new global order will arise within this century.
Bigger questions such as what will *we* be like. How will the rise of superhuman computing intelligence change us? Will we laugh or cry? (Disclosure, the above link is from my article called: A Primer on Technological Evolution".
One things seems clear. We've got front row seats.
Add another one to the list. Distributed desktop manufacturing is moving pretty fast now. There is no question as to the feasibility. It's only a matter of time.
But over the past few years we've seen a growing number of university teams approaching cheap personal prototyping from different angles. Each quietly adding to the pool of ideas from which the next efforts will draw.
Wired Magazine, in November 2004 covered Neil Gershenfeld's work at MIT. Slashdot discussion here
Gershenfeld's can produce solid objects like eyeglass frames, action figures and electronic devices like radios and computers.
Another approach to rapid prototyping and manufacturing uses inkjet technology. Inkjet Printers spitting out polymer instead of ink, manufacturing solar cells, batteries, complete working gadgets, human tissue and computer circuitry. (Disclosure: The above link is one of my BlogSpot articles on the acceleration).
The software simulates a variety of rudimentary virtual robots. In an accelerated Darwinian contest of survival over hundreds of generations, the most successful robotic designs are then physically prototyped. Robots autonomously designing, testing and manufacturing robots.
I think 5% it's a good estimate of the extent to which we have tapped the power of our communications networks, but, I agree with susano that the potential value of a perfectly connected communications network is nSquared. The utility of a communications network is simply limited by software. The potential is there waiting to be tapped.
The linked article refers to the actual useage we draw from a network as an example of it's value. But clearly there is far more value to be tapped. Look at Neural Nets. With only a few nodes, they can actually learn.
Consider the untapped power of the connected masses. The potential computational power of all connected home desktops in North America is far greater than the most powerful supercomputer. Even Google, which has an estimated computational capacity surpassing the most powerful supercomputer and approaching that of the human brain.
This Development is Tomorrow's Vaporware
on
No Pictures, Thanks
·
· Score: 1
A device which could turn off *todays* camera or instruct *today's* cameras to manipulate an image will only work until market forces demand cameras invulnerable to such sabotage.
Anti-jamming technology will fill the same niche as anti-virus technology.
Technology is innately driven to decentralize, demassify (make things infinitely customizable) and open source everything. That means eventually we'll personally select all of the features of our wireless gadgets and print them off from our open source desktop manufacturing system at home.
Bottom line? The market meets the demands of the many because they outweigh that of the few. This development is tomorrow's vaporware.
Autonomic computing means a computing system which is self-configuring,
self-healing, self-optimizing, and self-protecting.
As we modelled the eye to build cameras, the brain to build computers, the ear to build speakers, we're modeling our autonomic nervous system to build the next evolutionary step in computing. Networks that independently and reflexively self -regulate, configure, repair, optimize, and protect in the same sense as an immune system or an automatic pilot.
This would allow the network to automatically manage server load balancing, process allocation, monitor the power supply, automatic update software and fend off threats without having to consult the administrator.
For example, if an application starts performing badly, it automatically receives increased resources. If software or hardware fails, it doesn't even ripple the end users coffee. An autonomous computing system would roll out new patches, monitor and adjust the resources singular end users need, set up servers... all the mundane stuff.
The complexity of integrating and managing the latest hardware and software into existing systems is destroying the advantages of economies of scale. Autonomic computing is one way of insulating the IT administrator from the mundane complexities and freeing them to do other more interesting things like understanding the needs of the business more, or modelling and automating existing business processes.
On a larger scale, it spells an evolutionary move towards a decentralized global self-configuring, self-healing, self-optimizing, and self-protecting nervous system. Since Autonomic Computing can look for patterns in data and extrapolate to predict future events, deployed on a global scale, the spin-offs would be very interesting.
~~~~~~~
A revolution of affordable open source desktop manufacturing is on the way. There is already an alternative approach to rapid prototyping and manufacturing using inkjet technology.
Well before we are building things atom by atom, desktop manufacturing will be producing some stunning and swift changes in what we can produce for ourselves. The humble Inkjet, in a jag of hardware hacking is already spitting out solar cells, batteries, complete working gadgets, human tissue and computer circuitry,. A computer printing computer circuits simply from software instructions. That's only a stone's throw away from self replication.
The software simulates a variety of rudimentary virtual robots. In an accelerated Darwinian contest of survival over hundreds of generations, the most successful robotic designs are then physically prototyped. Robots autonomously designing, testing and manufacturing robots.
The implications of open source desktop manufacturing are perhaps more in the questions inspired than in what is produced.
What will be the effect of open source hardware? What happens when a desktop peripheral as economical as your printer manufactures custom computer circuitry, solar cells and batteries as cheap as wallpaper? Or when distributors ship a product as software, with the end user supplying the raw material. No distribution costs and instant delivery of a physical item. Or when autonomous robots fitted with accelerating computational intelligence design and manufacture their own next generation?
And now another working approach to desktop manufacturing pops up. I say 3 years will see the revolution spill out of the manufacturing sector onto our desktops.
I think this is probably the most significant observation so far in this story.
The implications of 3d inkjet printing are perhaps more in the questions inspired than in what is produced at this time. What will be the effect of open source hardware? What happens when a desktop peripheral as economical as your printer manufactures custom computer circuitry, solar cells and batteries as cheap as wallpaper? A desktop peripheral printing all the circuits needed for it's own next generation. Or when distributors ship a product as software, with the end user supplying the raw material. No distribution costs and instant delivery of a physical item. Or when autonomous robots fitted with accelerating computational intelligence design and manufacture THEIR own next generation.
These are all potentials the inkjet has demonstrated. In a jag of hardware hacking, the humble inkjet printer is being transformed into a crude replicator. It's still a hack, and we will wait a bit for a consumer device, but here is a quick tour of recent twists of inkjet technology.
ANY material that can be powderized, (and that means practically everything) can serve as the medium instead of ink.
It's already old news that working solar cells, lighting, even batteries have successfully emerged from the humble inkjet. And of course, printed circuits.
Slashdot Mirror
Estimates are that the Human brain computes somewhere between 100 Teraflops and 1000 Teraflops,
and Google was performing somewhere between 100 and 300 Teraflops. in late 2004.
P.S. Since doing that bit of research, every time Google checks my spelling and responds with "did you mean..." the hair stands on the back of my neck :)
But it's more than processing speed. It needs to have the software to do things like decision making, analysis, reasoning, evaluating, judging, information-organizing, learning, logic etc. which would normally require a human to perform.
We're not far off though...
So much is poised for profoundly accelerating deep, wide and powerful change, there are much bigger questions about 2015 and beyond.
Technology, as Alvin Toffler, Verner Vinge, and ray Kurzweil have made the case, is self-accelerating. In an ever quickening loop, technology inherently accelerates in speed, magnitude and scope while dropping in cost.
That's because technology is driven by innovation, and the whole point of innovation is to find better ways to do things. If it isn't faster, more powerful, useful to more people, cheaper etc., it isn't any better. And so the speed, power and social effects of technological evolution, feeding on itself, ever accelerate.
The self evident logic in the above paragraph is simple to understand, but hard as hell to accept. The reality and implications of this short, simple text strains the imagination. But whether planning the future of a country, company or family, imagine we must, because a truly new global order will arise within this century.
Bigger questions such as what will *we* be like. How will the rise of superhuman computing intelligence change us? Will we laugh or cry? (Disclosure, the above link is from my article called: A Primer on Technological Evolution".
One things seems clear. We've got front row seats.
Ted
But over the past few years we've seen a growing number of university teams approaching cheap personal prototyping from different angles. Each quietly adding to the pool of ideas from which the next efforts will draw.
Wired Magazine, in November 2004 covered Neil Gershenfeld's work at MIT. Slashdot discussion here
Gershenfeld's can produce solid objects like eyeglass frames, action figures and electronic devices like radios and computers.
Another approach to rapid prototyping and manufacturing uses inkjet technology. Inkjet Printers spitting out polymer instead of ink, manufacturing solar cells, batteries, complete working gadgets, human tissue and computer circuitry. (Disclosure: The above link is one of my BlogSpot articles on the acceleration).
Researchers Hod Lipson and Jordan B. Pollack at Brandeis University have coupled inkjet technology and software to autonomously design and fabricate robots without human intervention.
or
Google Search
The software simulates a variety of rudimentary virtual robots. In an accelerated Darwinian contest of survival over hundreds of generations, the most successful robotic designs are then physically prototyped. Robots autonomously designing, testing and manufacturing robots.
We're very close.
Ted
The linked article refers to the actual useage we draw from a network as an example of it's value. But clearly there is far more value to be tapped. Look at Neural Nets. With only a few nodes, they can actually learn.
Consider the untapped power of the connected masses. The potential computational power of all connected home desktops in North America is far greater than the most powerful supercomputer. Even Google, which has an estimated computational capacity surpassing the most powerful supercomputer and approaching that of the human brain.
Estimates are that
the Human brain computes somewhere between 100 TERAflops and 1000 Teraflops,
and Google performs somwhere between 100 and 300 teraflops.
Anti-jamming technology will fill the same niche as anti-virus technology.
Technology is innately driven to decentralize, demassify (make things infinitely customizable) and open source everything. That means eventually we'll personally select all of the features of our wireless gadgets and print them off from our open source desktop manufacturing system at home.
Bottom line? The market meets the demands of the many because they outweigh that of the few. This development is tomorrow's vaporware.
As we modelled the eye to build cameras, the brain to build computers, the ear to build speakers, we're modeling our autonomic nervous system to build the next evolutionary step in computing. Networks that independently and reflexively self -regulate, configure, repair, optimize, and protect in the same sense as an immune system or an automatic pilot.
This would allow the network to automatically manage server load balancing, process allocation, monitor the power supply, automatic update software and fend off threats without having to consult the administrator.
For example, if an application starts performing badly, it automatically receives increased resources. If software or hardware fails, it doesn't even ripple the end users coffee. An autonomous computing system would roll out new patches, monitor and adjust the resources singular end users need, set up servers... all the mundane stuff.
The complexity of integrating and managing the latest hardware and software into existing systems is destroying the advantages of economies of scale. Autonomic computing is one way of insulating the IT administrator from the mundane complexities and freeing them to do other more interesting things like understanding the needs of the business more, or modelling and automating existing business processes.
On a larger scale, it spells an evolutionary move towards a decentralized global self-configuring, self-healing, self-optimizing, and self-protecting nervous system. Since Autonomic Computing can look for patterns in data and extrapolate to predict future events, deployed on a global scale, the spin-offs would be very interesting.
~~~~~~~
A revolution of affordable open source desktop manufacturing is on the way. There is already an alternative approach to rapid prototyping and manufacturing using inkjet technology.
Well before we are building things atom by atom, desktop manufacturing will be producing some stunning and swift changes in what we can produce for ourselves. The humble Inkjet, in a jag of hardware hacking is already spitting out solar cells, batteries, complete working gadgets, human tissue and computer circuitry,. A computer printing computer circuits simply from software instructions. That's only a stone's throw away from self replication.
There's more.
Researchers Hod Lipson and Jordan B. Pollack at Brandeis University have coupled inkjet technology and software to autonomously design and fabricate robots without human intervention.
or
Google Search
The software simulates a variety of rudimentary virtual robots. In an accelerated Darwinian contest of survival over hundreds of generations, the most successful robotic designs are then physically prototyped. Robots autonomously designing, testing and manufacturing robots.
The implications of open source desktop manufacturing are perhaps more in the questions inspired than in what is produced.
What will be the effect of open source hardware? What happens when a desktop peripheral as economical as your printer manufactures custom computer circuitry, solar cells and batteries as cheap as wallpaper? Or when distributors ship a product as software, with the end user supplying the raw material. No distribution costs and instant delivery of a physical item. Or when autonomous robots fitted with accelerating computational intelligence design and manufacture their own next generation?
And now another working approach to desktop manufacturing pops up. I say 3 years will see the revolution spill out of the manufacturing sector onto our desktops.
I think this is probably the most significant observation so far in this story.
The implications of 3d inkjet printing are perhaps more in the questions inspired than in what is produced at this time. What will be the effect of open source hardware? What happens when a desktop peripheral as economical as your printer manufactures custom computer circuitry, solar cells and batteries as cheap as wallpaper? A desktop peripheral printing all the circuits needed for it's own next generation. Or when distributors ship a product as software, with the end user supplying the raw material. No distribution costs and instant delivery of a physical item. Or when autonomous robots fitted with accelerating computational intelligence design and manufacture THEIR own next generation.
These are all potentials the inkjet has demonstrated. In a jag of hardware hacking, the humble inkjet printer is being transformed into a crude replicator. It's still a hack, and we will wait a bit for a consumer device, but here is a quick tour of recent twists of inkjet technology.
ANY material that can be powderized, (and that means practically everything) can serve as the medium instead of ink.
It's already old news that working solar cells, lighting, even batteries have successfully emerged from the humble inkjet. And of course, printed circuits.
Researchers Hod Lipson and Jordan B. Pollack at Brandeis University are using 3d printing technology and software to autonomously design and fabricate robots.
or
Google Search
Printing on cloth to create wearable intelligence Original article
or
Google Search