Is the planet warming? Yes.
Are humans responsible? We don't know for sure (exluding typical scientific uncertainty).
So what is wrong? Well, the RATE at which the planet is alarming.
Is there only 150 years of data? No. Proxy data of tree-rings, ice cores, geologic samples provide a very robust dataset for comparison. It is good stuff, use it!
So, I don't need to stop polluting yet? Well no one is telling you to stop (especially this administration), but do you honestly think polluting less is a bad thing?
All of you screaming global warming need to relax. There is still alot of research to be done, it's not as clean cut as you think. As many others have mentioned, there are many background signals/cycles that occur in the ocean/atmosphere. Maybe there are a few cycles which just happen to coincide this year, resulting in strong positive reinforcement.
Correlation != Causation
How many names can you come up with that start with Q,U,X,Y or Z? And you have to come up with equal names for each sex (5 male, 5 female).
If a name is retired, another name is adopted to replace it. There are likely hundreds of names for each of the other main letters (A, B, C, etc). It's really not that difficult.
"Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms have been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center and now maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. The lists featured only women's names until 1979, when men's and women's names were alternated. Six lists are used in rotation. Thus, the 2004 list will be used again in 2010. Here is more information on the history of naming hurricanes."
You don't have letters like Q or X because you really don't have a large pool of names to draw from (equally male and female). Once a NAME is retired, it is never used again. A LETTER is NEVER retired (though I'm not sure what they would do if a an Alpha or Beta was retired).
Names alternate male-female. The beginning sex alternates each year. The first storm this year was Arlene, the first one next year will be Alberto.
Obviously, where ever you work there are going to be people who don't do there job all that great and are not innovators. Don't make it sound like the NWS is full of these type of people. I work with many enthusiastic and motivated people who are doing great things every day.
If you guys like what the NWS does, you should contact your local representatives and let them know. The NWS is constantly under budget crunches and pressures from the likes of the accu folk.
I don't think alot of people realize how little of their taxes is being spent on the National Weather Service...
$749 million (2005 Budget)
That's a cost of less than $3/yr for every man, woman and child in the U.S.!
So what does the NWS do with that money?
-Support 123 offices across the country.
-Maintain/expand autmoated surface observation stations across the country.
-RADAR maintanence.
-Provide 7 days forecasts atleast 2/day, usually more for the entire country, including PR and Guam.
-Prodive aviation forecasts 4 times/day
-Issue warnings (Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm/Flood/Hurricane/etc).
-Constant training of staff (meteorology is still a relatively new science).
-And much more...
I think that as far as bang for your tax buck goes, the National Weather Service may be the best.
THIS is the data that is being disseminated through XML, not observational data. Now the public sector can take the digital forecasts (which are created on a 2.5km grid), ingest it, and pass it off as their own.
Reading this article brings several things to mind when it comes to "free" weather data for the public. Yes, taxpayers have already payed for their taxes (hence, service) for the NWS. The NWS primary responsibilty is to protect life and property, but in doing so, a huge amount of data is amassed.
Yes, much/all of this data is available in *real time* from sources such as www.weather.gov . I believe the big arguement is acquring 1) historical data, and 2) certified data.
Acuiring historical data is done through the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), located in Ashville, NC. There, they specialize in the collection and storage of not only data that is recorded today, but data that has been collected over the past 150 years (or more). If a person wishes to receive some forms of historical data, they will have to go through NCDC. I feel that that is wrong, and that you, the taxpayer have already paid for the information, and should be given it for free.
But, issue 2 brings up many valid arguements of why to pay for data. Certified data is often used in litigation, and is recognized as being official weather data in the court of law. Litigation issues could range from being paid for non-workable days in the construction industry, to insurance payments from destructive weather forces. I believe that paying a nominal fee for certified data IS acceptable. There needs to be an official source afterall.
The larger issue at hand though is, as some have mentioned, the fact that several companies are making large amounts of money reselling free data already provided by the NWS. Many wishful thoughts I have heard from the private industry is that the NWS only collect the data, and issue warnings (and maybe not even issue warnings). People in this country need to have an OFFICIAL source of weather information. Could you imagine trying to get a Tornado Warning that was ISSUED by television stations? Channel 12 may issue a tornado warning, but Channel 8 may not. Which one do you listen to? And what about liability issues?
These are just some of the thoughts I have with the issue of gov't/private weather industry. I think alot can be gained from the arangement that was developed between the NWS and AWS. I hope others in the industry realize that by sharing the large amount of data between all players, we can do a great job of serving the public as well as further the field of Meteorology.
Slashdot Mirror
Is the planet warming? Yes. Are humans responsible? We don't know for sure (exluding typical scientific uncertainty). So what is wrong? Well, the RATE at which the planet is alarming. Is there only 150 years of data? No. Proxy data of tree-rings, ice cores, geologic samples provide a very robust dataset for comparison. It is good stuff, use it! So, I don't need to stop polluting yet? Well no one is telling you to stop (especially this administration), but do you honestly think polluting less is a bad thing?
Why would climate change be a myth? It's proven that the Earth is warming. The controversy is *why* it is warming. Jury is still out on that one.
All of you screaming global warming need to relax. There is still alot of research to be done, it's not as clean cut as you think. As many others have mentioned, there are many background signals/cycles that occur in the ocean/atmosphere. Maybe there are a few cycles which just happen to coincide this year, resulting in strong positive reinforcement. Correlation != Causation
How many names can you come up with that start with Q,U,X,Y or Z? And you have to come up with equal names for each sex (5 male, 5 female). If a name is retired, another name is adopted to replace it. There are likely hundreds of names for each of the other main letters (A, B, C, etc). It's really not that difficult.
IAAM (I Am a Meteorologist), and I don't understand why there is so much confusion on the naming convention.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml
"Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms have been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center and now maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. The lists featured only women's names until 1979, when men's and women's names were alternated. Six lists are used in rotation. Thus, the 2004 list will be used again in 2010. Here is more information on the history of naming hurricanes."
You don't have letters like Q or X because you really don't have a large pool of names to draw from (equally male and female). Once a NAME is retired, it is never used again. A LETTER is NEVER retired (though I'm not sure what they would do if a an Alpha or Beta was retired).
Names alternate male-female. The beginning sex alternates each year. The first storm this year was Arlene, the first one next year will be Alberto.
Obviously, where ever you work there are going to be people who don't do there job all that great and are not innovators. Don't make it sound like the NWS is full of these type of people. I work with many enthusiastic and motivated people who are doing great things every day.
If you guys like what the NWS does, you should contact your local representatives and let them know. The NWS is constantly under budget crunches and pressures from the likes of the accu folk.
I don't think alot of people realize how little of their taxes is being spent on the National Weather Service... $749 million (2005 Budget) That's a cost of less than $3/yr for every man, woman and child in the U.S.! So what does the NWS do with that money? -Support 123 offices across the country. -Maintain/expand autmoated surface observation stations across the country. -RADAR maintanence. -Provide 7 days forecasts atleast 2/day, usually more for the entire country, including PR and Guam. -Prodive aviation forecasts 4 times/day -Issue warnings (Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm/Flood/Hurricane/etc). -Constant training of staff (meteorology is still a relatively new science). -And much more... I think that as far as bang for your tax buck goes, the National Weather Service may be the best.
NDFD and observational data are two different things.
i nd ex.php
How forecasts are created now involves, essentially, drawing what weather we expected. To see examples and forecasts, goto:
http://weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/
THIS is the data that is being disseminated through XML, not observational data. Now the public sector can take the digital forecasts (which are created on a 2.5km grid), ingest it, and pass it off as their own.
Reading this article brings several things to mind when it comes to "free" weather data for the public. Yes, taxpayers have already payed for their taxes (hence, service) for the NWS. The NWS primary responsibilty is to protect life and property, but in doing so, a huge amount of data is amassed. Yes, much/all of this data is available in *real time* from sources such as www.weather.gov . I believe the big arguement is acquring 1) historical data, and 2) certified data. Acuiring historical data is done through the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), located in Ashville, NC. There, they specialize in the collection and storage of not only data that is recorded today, but data that has been collected over the past 150 years (or more). If a person wishes to receive some forms of historical data, they will have to go through NCDC. I feel that that is wrong, and that you, the taxpayer have already paid for the information, and should be given it for free. But, issue 2 brings up many valid arguements of why to pay for data. Certified data is often used in litigation, and is recognized as being official weather data in the court of law. Litigation issues could range from being paid for non-workable days in the construction industry, to insurance payments from destructive weather forces. I believe that paying a nominal fee for certified data IS acceptable. There needs to be an official source afterall. The larger issue at hand though is, as some have mentioned, the fact that several companies are making large amounts of money reselling free data already provided by the NWS. Many wishful thoughts I have heard from the private industry is that the NWS only collect the data, and issue warnings (and maybe not even issue warnings). People in this country need to have an OFFICIAL source of weather information. Could you imagine trying to get a Tornado Warning that was ISSUED by television stations? Channel 12 may issue a tornado warning, but Channel 8 may not. Which one do you listen to? And what about liability issues? These are just some of the thoughts I have with the issue of gov't/private weather industry. I think alot can be gained from the arangement that was developed between the NWS and AWS. I hope others in the industry realize that by sharing the large amount of data between all players, we can do a great job of serving the public as well as further the field of Meteorology.